Short Answer

Bitcoin is unlikely to reach $77,133.60 between 1:30 AM EDT and 1:45 AM EDT on Oct 31; the market prices this outcome at 20.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • Target price $77,133.60 faces choppy trading from Binance event fallout.
  • Price stability near $77,000 appeared fragile, not robust, on Oct 30-31.
  • Bearish market conditions implied resistance near $77,000 for the overnight session.

Current Context

The Robinhood 15-minute BTC contract targets a relative price change by 1:45 AM EDT. The October 31, 2026, 1:30–1:45 AM EDT contract resolves Yes if the average of CF Benchmarks BRTI observations during the final 60 seconds before 1:45 AM is at least the average during the 60 seconds before 1:30 AM, with a target of $77,133.60 or above [1][2][3]. Nearby Robinhood 15-minute markets showed a sharply weakening short-term trend: the 1:00–1:15 AM contract at $77,039.25 or above traded at 95¢, while the 1:15–1:30 AM contract at $77,088.93 or above traded at 61¢ [1][4][2][3]. The 12:45–1:00 AM contract at $77,035.31 was near 50% [2][3]. These prices imply declining market confidence in further 15-minute rises, though they are not directly interchangeable with the 1:30–1:45 AM contract [1][4][2][3]. Robinhood's 15-minute product uses CF Benchmarks BRTI averages over 60-second windows; differences in exchange price, index methodology, averaging window, and timestamp can materially alter outcomes compared to other markets [1][5][4][2][3][6].
Broader market and expert views indicate a cautious outlook for BTC. On Oct. 30–31, the broader market backdrop was bearish, with BTC reported around $77,438 and down 5.27% over 24 hours in one report [3][7]. CoinDesk reported BTC falling below $77,000 amid a reported $6.3 billion Binance exploit and a Nasdaq selloff, with whale and taker-flow measures pointing to distribution [7][8]. FXStreet's Simon-Peter Massabni expected BTC to remain range-bound between $70,000 and $80,000 due to geopolitical and monetary-policy uncertainty, with downside risk toward the $75,761 50-week SMA [9]. Bitfinex identified $77,000–$80,000 as a key support band, $77,786 as the True Market Mean, and roughly $77,000 as a new-whale cost basis [10]. Key catalysts included the Federal Reserve decision and Chair remarks, Big Tech earnings, ETF-flow data, and the Oct. 30 Binance-security event [10][11]. Bitfinex scenarios suggested a hawkish Fed outcome could drive BTC toward $77,000–$77,786, while a dovish surprise might support $82,500 and then $84,000–$85,500 over the following week [10].
Other prediction markets suggest BTC activity in the high $76,000s to low $77,000s. A 1 AM EDT market showed 72% for BTC at or above $77,000, 42% at or above $77,100, and 18% at or above $77,200 [3]. Polymarket's Oct. 31 noon Binance-close market assigned 84% to the $76,000–$78,000 range [6]. These markets use different timestamps or resolution sources, making them contextual rather than exact odds for the 1:30–1:45 AM interval [3][6]. For the requested 1:30–1:45 AM EDT interval, evidence favors a flat-to-down or only modestly positive 15-minute move, not a strong breakout [1][5][4][2][3][9][10][7][8]. A qualitative forecast suggests the contract is closer to a coin flip or modest No bias than to the 95% Yes confidence seen one interval earlier [1][5][4][2][3][9][10][7][8]. The exact probability cannot be established as the target contract's live quote was not returned [1][5][4][2][3][9][10][7][8].
Sources (11)
  1. 1October 31, 2026: BTC 15 min · 1:15–1:30 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2Crypto BTC Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  3. 3BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 1am EDT? — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  4. 4October 31, 2026: BTC 15 min · 1:00–1:15 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  5. 5October 31, 2026: BTC 15 min · 12:30–12:45 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  6. 6Bitcoin price on October 31?polymarket.com
  7. 7Bitcoin Report #219, 2026-10-31macroweapon.com
  8. 8Live updates: Bitcoin falls below $77,000 as Binance exploit combines with tech woescoindesk.com
  9. 9Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Binance security breach and hawkish Fed push BTC lowerfxstreet.com
  10. 10Bitcoin’s Next Test Comes After the Fed Decision - Bitfinex blogblog.bitfinex.com
  11. 11Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC reclaims $81,000 as traders await Fed policy decision, Big Tech earningsfxstreet.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market expires on October 31 at 1:45 AM EDT. The final settlement value is determined by averaging 60 CF Benchmarks Real Time Index (RTI) prices collected during the last minute before expiration. The specific price target or condition required to trigger a "YES" or "NO" resolution is not provided in the given content.

Market Discussion

On October 31, 2026, 15-minute BTC event contracts with target prices around $77,035–$77,145 were active on platforms such as Public.com, showing implied YES probabilities up to 99% and market volumes of $3.98 million [1]. These contracts typically resolve based on comparisons of average prices during specific time windows, not exact price forecasts; however, no authoritative pages or social media discussion specifically matching the exact $77,133.60 target were found, with that number only appearing incidentally in unrelated crypto records [1].

Sources (1)
  1. 1BTC Up or Down - 15 minutes Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 75 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score82Good
Trade quality20% of score46High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 26% of the price to slippage.

Trust score75Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
78Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

One trade was 39% of everything ever traded in “Target Price: $77,133.60” — a $538 tape.

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Target Price: $77,133.60—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Target Price: $77,133.60—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Target Price: $77,133.6095
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
46High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Liquidity unreadable

No significant moves to grade

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (~2% of a 21.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.5c slippage (~2% of a 21.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 5.5c slippage (~26% of a 21.5c contract)

Target Price: $77,133.60Primary–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 31, 2026

5. How might fallout from the October 30 Binance security event and anticipation of the Federal Reserve's decision influence BTC's price action between 1:30-1:45 AM EDT?

BTC Price Forecast (Oct 31)Choppy-to-slightly-bearish or range-bound trading (1:30-1:45 AM EDT) [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Binance Incident Affected AssetsApproximately $6.3 billion; over $3 billion frozen [1][2][3]
Federal Reserve Interest RatesHeld at 3.75%-4.00% (Oct 28) [7][8]
Bitcoin's price is forecast for choppy or range-bound trading from 1:30-1:45 AM EDT on October 31 [1][2][3][4][5][6]. The ongoing Binance security event is expected to be a more significant driver than the already-priced Federal Reserve decision. This suggests Bitcoin is likely to remain near, or briefly dip below, the $77,133.60 target rather than achieving a sustained upside break [1][2][3][4][5][6].
The October 30 Binance incident introduced significant downside risk and volatility [1][2][3]. This security event reportedly affected approximately $6.3 billion in crypto assets, with over $3 billion frozen, contributing to Bitcoin's roughly 4% drop to $77,066-$77,446 that day [1][2][3]. Temporary withdrawal restrictions and anticipated market pressure are expected until funds are unfrozen and further details emerge [2][9][3]. While Bitcoin's core network was not compromised, mitigating implications for a prolonged BTC-specific collapse, a sharp downside impulse could still occur if new hack or withdrawal-related headlines surface [3][1][2][3][4][5][6]. Conversely, a relief rally above the target price is plausible if positive recovery news calms market fears [1][2][3][4][5][6].
The Federal Reserve's influence is secondary, with prediction markets pointing to a narrow range. The Federal Reserve's decision on October 28 maintained interest rates at 3.75%-4.00% [7][8]. Market attention subsequently shifted to the possibility of a 25-basis-point hike in December, which saw Bitcoin initially react with a modest 0.33% spot increase over several hours despite the hawkish hold [7][8][10][11]. During the 1:30-1:45 AM EDT interval, the Fed's impact is more likely to stem from pre-existing rate expectations, Treasury yields, and the dollar, where a hawkish interpretation might press Bitcoin, or a patient stance could support a relief bounce [10][11]. Prediction-market data positioned Bitcoin around the $77,000-$77,200 range, with another market indicating a $77,144.71 threshold for an earlier 12:30-12:45 AM period [4][5][12][6][5]. This suggests that a slight movement around the $77,133.60 mark could prove decisive [4][5][12][13][6].
Sources (13)
  1. 1Bitcoin, ether price: Binance hack rattles crypto marketscnbc.com
  2. 2Bitcoin holds up after Binance’s $6.3 billion hackcnbc.com
  3. 3Bitcoin (BTC) today: $6B Binance hack hits prices. What next?coindesk.com
  4. 4BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 2am EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  5. 5October 31, 2026: BTC 15 min · 12:30–12:45 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  6. 6Bitcoin price on October 31?polymarket.com
  7. 7Fed leaves interest rates unchanged, as expectedcoindesk.com
  8. 8Fed Rate Decision: What Markets and Bitcoin Traders Can Expect - Decryptdecrypt.co
  9. 9Binance hack updates: Crypto firm says it is beginning to recover some funds - BBC Newsbbc.com
  10. 10Fed Rate Decision Preview as Bitcoin Watches December Hike Riskfxstreet.com
  11. 11Bitcoin Shrugs Off a Hawkish Fed as Volatility Bets Barely Budgefinance.yahoo.com
  12. 12Bitcoin price on Sat at 12:00 am ET Prediction & Odds - Bitcoin - OG.comog.com
  13. 13prorexevents.pxmarkets.ai

6. What do recent on-chain metrics, such as taker buy-sell ratio and whale exchange flows, indicate about Bitcoin's price stability around the $77,000 level on October 30-31?

BTCUSDT Taker Buy/Sell Ratio (02:00 UTC Oct 31)0.528 [1]
Taker Buy Volume (Last 24h)43% of total ($508.51M bought vs $681.55M sold) [2][3]
Whale Net Selling (24h)$422.4M [2][4]
Bitcoin's price stability around $77,000 appeared fragile, not robust, on October 30-31. Rather than robust support, recent on-chain metrics indicated a range-bound stability for Bitcoin around this level [5][2][3][6]. The most defensible directional read for the 15-minute target resolving Oct 31 1:30-1:45 AM EDT was neutral-to-slightly bearish, reflecting a short-term defensive tilt [1][2][7][6]. Hourly BTCUSDT taker buy/sell ratios declined significantly, notably reaching 0.528 at 02:00 UTC on Oct 31, indicating intensifying taker selling pressure [1]. Over the preceding 24 hours, taker buys constituted only 43% of the total, with $508.51M bought against $681.55M sold [2][3].
Whale exchange flows presented a mixed picture, not signaling clear bullish control. While some trackers reported significant net outflows from exchanges, such as 12,150 BTC net out on Oct 30, which typically suggests reduced immediate sell supply [5][8], other sources indicated notable net inflows, including a large +15,889-BTC inflow on Oct 28 and +4,379 BTC net exchange inflow on Oct 30 [9][10]. The broader flow regime did not indicate clear bullish dominance; whales net-sold $422.4M over 24 hours, and cumulative 7-day whale sells exceeded buys by $439.3M [2][4]. Additionally, spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) was -2,916 BTC, futures CVD was -18,770.5 BTC, and open interest rose 3.22%, suggesting a bearish bias despite increased interest [2][4].
Liquidity clusters and market predictions suggested a range-bound environment. Large orders were observed to be clustered on both the buying and selling sides near the $76.4K-$77.8K range [2][3][6]. Prediction market context, such as Kalshi's leading Oct 30 bucket at $77,000-$77,499.99, concentrated expectations within the $76K-$78K band [2][3][6]. While two-sided liquidity and some exchange outflows offered a degree of cushion against a sharp downturn, they did not definitively establish that the $77,133.60 level would hold [1][2][7][6].
Sources (10)
  1. 1BTCUSDT Taker Flow | dboqodboqo.com
  2. 2Bitcoin Report #219, 2026-10-31macroweapon.com
  3. 3Bitcoin (BTC) Largest Trades: Whale Buys & Sellsswolecharts.com
  4. 4Exchange netflow — Kote Chartskotecharts.com
  5. 5Bitcoin Whale Activity, 30 Oct 2026: 12,150 BTC net out of exchanges — Bitcoin drops 4.92% to $76,748 as whale activity surges 189% above weekly averageswisswhaleintelligence.com
  6. 6Bitcoin Short-Horizon Books 2026 | Qwidgetsqwidgets.com
  7. 7October 30, 2026: BTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 2pm EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  8. 8Free Bitcoin Whale Tracker | Live BTC Transfers | TrackWhaletrackwhale.io
  9. 9Bitcoin Exchange Reserves and Netflow Today | World-Cryptworld-crypt.net
  10. 10Exchange Flow — Bitcoin | BearBullBunnybearbullbunny.com

7. How do implied probabilities from Polymarket's daily close market compare with the real-time odds on adjacent Robinhood 15-minute contracts for October 31?

Polymarket Oct 31 Price Range Probability82.0% for BTC in $76,000–$78,000 range [1][2][3]
Robinhood 1:00–1:15 AM BTC Contract Probability95.0¢ Yes probability for $77,039.25 target [4][5][2][6]
Robinhood Probability Change (12:30-1:15 AM)From 4.6¢ to 95.0¢ [4][5][2][6]
A direct comparison between Polymarket and Robinhood probabilities is not feasible. The indexed results do not verify the existence of a Polymarket daily close market with the specific BTC $77,133.60 threshold for October 31 [1][2]. Furthermore, Polymarket's 15-minute BTC markets and Robinhood's 15-minute contracts are not directly interchangeable. They have distinct settlement definitions and targets, meaning their implied probabilities should not be considered like-for-like odds [1][7].
Available Polymarket data describes daily price-range markets and 15-minute Up/Down markets. For instance, the October 31 Polymarket daily price-range market assigned an 82.0% probability to BTC finishing within the $76,000–$78,000 range [1][2][3]. In contrast, adjacent Robinhood 15-minute contracts for October 31 presented different probabilities. A 1:00–1:15 AM contract targeted $77,039.25 with a "Yes" probability of 95.0¢, while a 12:45–1:00 AM contract, targeting $77,035.31, showed a 50% "Yes" probability [4][5][2][6][8]. These range probabilities from Polymarket do not directly imply the likelihood of a specific 15-minute threshold being reached or exceeded [1][2][3].
Robinhood contract rules define "Yes" based on average price movements within the window. Specifically, "Yes" is defined as the CF Benchmarks BRTI end-of-window average being at least the start-of-window average [4][5][2][6]. The implied "Yes" probability on available Robinhood quotes exhibited sharp fluctuations across successive windows. It moved from 4.6% during 12:30–12:45 AM to 50% at 12:45–1:00 AM, then to 95% at 1:00–1:15 AM, before settling at 61% for 1:15–1:30 AM [4][5][2][6]. This variability suggests rapidly changing target-relative conditions or distinct quote snapshots, rather than a consistent estimate for the particular Polymarket event mentioned [4][5][2][6].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Bitcoin 15-Minute Up or Down Chart — Live Polymarket Dataupdowncharts.com
  2. 2Crypto BTC Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  3. 3Bitcoin price on October 31?polymarket.com
  4. 4October 31, 2026: BTC 15 min · 12:30–12:45 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  5. 5October 31, 2026: BTC 15 min · 1:15–1:30 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  6. 6October 31, 2026: BTC 15 min · 1:00–1:15 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  7. 7Bitcoin (BTC) 15-Min Prediction: Live Odds, Kalshi vs Polymarketdefirate.com
  8. 815 min Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com

8. What is the historical price volatility and tick frequency for the CF Benchmarks BRTI index during the 1:00-2:00 AM EDT window?

BRTI Update FrequencyUp to 5 ticks/second (every 200 milliseconds) [1][2][3]
Standard BRTI DisseminationOnce per second [1][2][3]
Estimated Observations per Hour~3,600 (standard) or ~18,000 (5Hz stream) [2][3][1]
Public sources do not provide historical BRTI data for volatility analysis. It is not possible to calculate a numerical estimate of historical price volatility or an empirical tick count for the CF Benchmarks BRTI index during the 1:00–2:00 AM EDT window based solely on publicly available search results. The supplied sources do not include actual historical BRTI time series data for the specified date or samples from prior similar windows [2][1][4][5]. The BRTI index is designed to update every 200 milliseconds, allowing for up to 5 ticks per second, while its standard disseminated value is published once per second [1][2][3].
Historical BRTI tick data is available via a dedicated endpoint. Historical BRTI values, including intra-second data, are accessible through the CF Benchmarks history endpoint, which Kalshi provides via an authenticated REST passthrough to return tick-level values [6]. For the 1:00–2:00 AM EDT window, this access would typically yield approximately 3,600 standard one-second BRTI observations. If the 5Hz/intra-second stream is continuously available, the number of observations could increase to about 18,000, though actual counts may vary due to external dependencies and the filtering of duplicate or out-of-order timestamps [2][3][1].
Measuring volatility requires downloading tick data and computing specific statistics. To accurately measure volatility for any historical 1:00–2:00 AM EDT window, it is recommended to download the tick values. Subsequent computations can then be performed for statistics such as log returns, annualized or per-hour realized volatility, high-low range, standard deviation, and tick-to-tick absolute-change [2][1][4][5].
Sources (6)
  1. 1CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Indexcfbenchmarks.com
  2. 2CME CF Cryptocurrency Real Time Indicesdocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  3. 3Infographic: CME CF BRR and BRTIcmegroup.com
  4. 4CME CF (BRTI)cmegroup.com
  5. 5CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index (BTRI) Methodology Guidecmegroup.com
  6. 6https://docs.kalshi.com/cfbenchmarks/rest-passthroughdocs.kalshi.com

9. What are the critical short-term support and resistance levels for Bitcoin identified by technical analysts at Bitfinex and FXStreet for the October 30-31 overnight session?

Critical Short-Term Support$76,426 (FXStreet 200-day EMA) [1][2][3][4]
Immediate Resistance$77,820 (FXStreet 100-day EMA) [3][4]
Practical Near-Term CorridorApproximately $76,500-$80,000 [2][5]
For the October 30-31 overnight session, technical analysts identified critical support and resistance levels for Bitcoin. Bitfinex pinpointed significant support between $77,000 and $77,765, while FXStreet highlighted the 200-day EMA near $76,426 as a critical short-term floor [1][2][3][4]. On the resistance side, Bitfinex noted $81,300 as a former support level and $82,500 as a major upside liquidation barrier [1][2]. FXStreet identified immediate resistance at the 100-day EMA near $77,820, with the 50-day EMA near $80,598 serving as the subsequent significant hurdle [3][4].
The near-term trading corridor suggests a bias toward testing support. The practical trading corridor for the session was approximately $76,500-$80,000, with the overnight low and 200-day EMA support situated around $76,500-$76,542 [2][5]. The first meaningful resistance band was observed between $80,000 and $80,635 [2][5]. A prediction-market target of $77,133.60 fell within the established support area but below immediate resistance, indicating a technical bias towards testing support and consolidation rather than an immediate upside breakout [2][3]. A decisive move below the $76,426-$76,500 range would signal a bearish trend, whereas reclaiming $77,820 and subsequently the $80,000-$80,600 area would improve the short-term outlook [2][3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Bitcoin Tests Key Support as Fed Decision Looms - Bitfinex blogblog.bitfinex.com
  2. 2Bitcoin on Oct 30, 2026: Daily Brief and Outlook (archive)coinlab.info
  3. 3Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Binance security breach and hawkish Fed push BTC lowerfxstreet.com
  4. 4Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: DOGE, Bitcoin & Crypto – European Wrap 30 Octoberfxstreet.com
  5. 5Bitcoin heatmap reads a pull down toward $75,633, 2.81% below | OwlChartowlchart.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The market backdrop on October 30–31 was bearish and volatile, with BTC reported around $76,300–$77,438, reflecting a roughly 5% daily decline and approximately 7%–8% for October [1][2][3][4][5]. Primary bearish drivers included a reported approximately $6.3 billion Binance exploit with withdrawals paused, hawkish Federal Reserve messaging following rates held at 3.75%–4.00%, elevated inflation and Treasury yields, weak technology equities, and liquidation-driven risk reduction [6][7][2][5].
Potential bullish or stabilizing catalysts involved the restoration of Binance withdrawals alongside a complete-loss guarantee, continued or renewed U.S. spot-Bitcoin-ETF inflows, declining Treasury yields, and reduced December-hike odds [6][7][2][3][5]. Exhaustion of leveraged long liquidations could also support prices [6][7][2][3][5]. Key technical levels included $80,000 as the first major ceiling, with approximately $81,952–$82,000 near the 50-day moving average [7][4][5]. Support levels were $76,231–$76,264 and the September low of $74,968, followed by the 200-day moving average at approximately $73,162 [7][4][5].
For short-horizon scenarios, specifically the 1:30–1:45 AM EDT window, a bullish outlook requires BTC to reclaim and hold roughly $77,100–$77,300, contingent on improving exchange confidence [6][7][4][5]. The base case suggests choppy range trading around $76,000–$78,000 [6][7][4][5]. A bearish scenario unfolds if $76,000 or $76,231 breaks, exposing levels around $75,000 and then $74,968 [6][7][4][5]. Important dated catalysts included the October 28 FOMC decision, October 29 GDP/PCE data, the reported Binance event beginning October 29, October 31 monthly-close pressure, and U.S. midterm elections on November 3 [7][5]. These dates influence directional volatility more than individual 15-minute candle movements [7][5].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: October 31, 2026
  • Expiration: November 07, 2026
  • Closes: October 31, 2026
Sources (7)
  1. 1Bitcoin Report #219, 2026-10-31macroweapon.com
  2. 2Live updates: Bitcoin falls below $77,000 as Binance exploit combines with tech woescoindesk.com
  3. 3Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Is down 2.43% on Oct 31: What Do On-Chain Data and Market Sentiment Show?tradingkey.com
  4. 4Market Read: Bitcoin set for worst October since 2014cryptowatchdesk.com
  5. 5Bitcoin October 2026: Second Red October in a Row Loomsbasecamp.markets
  6. 6Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Binance security breach and hawkish Fed push BTC lowerfxstreet.com
  7. 7MEXC Crypto Macro and Trading Weekly Report: FOMC Holds Steady, Can Bitcoin Hold the $80,000 Mark?mexc.co

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 11 resolved YES, 9 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXBTC15M-26OCT310130-30: YES (Oct 31, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT310115-15: YES (Oct 31, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT310100-00: YES (Oct 31, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT310045-45: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT310030-30: YES (Oct 31, 2026)