Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Bitcoin to get above $70,000.00 in April, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This prediction market has exhibited significant volatility with an overall downward trend as the April resolution date nears. The contract price ranged widely from a low of 10.0% to a high of 85.0%. Trading in the final week was especially turbulent, marked by large price swings. Notably, a 32.0 percentage point spike on April 22nd was followed by a series of steep declines, including a 39.0pp drop on April 27th and a 20.0pp drop on April 28th. This choppy price action indicates a market where sentiment shifted rapidly, ultimately resolving to the downside and establishing a new low at 10.0%.
Without specific external news provided, these sharp fluctuations appear driven by internal market dynamics and evolving trader expectations. The high total volume of over 550,000 contracts suggests strong conviction behind these moves. Technically, the 70%-85% range acted as a firm resistance level that failed to hold, while the current 10.0% price now serves as the contract's support floor. The chart illustrates a dramatic collapse in market sentiment; early optimism has been completely supplanted by strong pessimism, suggesting the market has formed a consensus that the condition for a "YES" resolution is highly unlikely to be met.
  • US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows sharply declined throughout April.
  • Major Bitcoin miners net sold holdings during April.
  • Weakening buying pressure constrained significant Bitcoin price appreciation.
  • Highest Bitcoin options open interest for April was at the $75,000 strike.
  • Upcoming inflation reports forecast increases for key economic indicators.

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📉 April 28, 2026: 20.0pp drop

Price decreased from 30.0% to 10.0%

Outcome: Above $80,000.00

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

📉 April 27, 2026: 39.0pp drop

Price decreased from 63.0% to 24.0%

Outcome: Above $80,000.00

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

📈 April 26, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 44.0% to 53.0%

Outcome: Above $80,000.00

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

📉 April 24, 2026: 22.0pp drop

Price decreased from 62.0% to 40.0%

Outcome: Above $80,000.00

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

📈 April 22, 2026: 32.0pp spike

Price increased from 38.0% to 70.0%

Outcome: Above $80,000.00

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

A "Yes" resolution occurs if Bitcoin's trimmed mean price, derived from minute-by-minute CF BRTI data, ever exceeds $80,000.00 between market issuance and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This trimmed mean calculation excludes the top and bottom 20% of data points to mitigate extreme price fluctuations. A "No" resolution occurs if the price criterion is not met by the deadline or if CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration.

Market Discussion

The market indicates low probabilities for Bitcoin surpassing $80,000 (11%), $82,500 (4%), or $85,000 (3%) in April, with most higher thresholds seeing recent decreases in their "Yes" probabilities. While some traders expressed bullish hopes for Bitcoin to hit $80,000 or even $85,000, at least one notable 'No' position was taken against Bitcoin reaching above $75,000, with that trader expressing a desire for prices to drop below that level.

5. How did US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows compare in April vs. March?

April cumulative net inflow (top 5 US spot Bitcoin ETFs)$88.5 million [1]
April daily average net inflow (top 5 US spot Bitcoin ETFs)$4.02 million [1]
March daily average net inflow (top 5 US spot Bitcoin ETFs)$99 million [1]
April saw a sharp decline in Bitcoin ETF net inflows. The top 5 US spot Bitcoin ETFs (IBIT, FBTC, BITB, ARKB, and GBTC) recorded a cumulative net inflow of approximately $88.5 million in April, with a daily average net inflow of about $4.02 million [1]. This represents a significant decrease compared to March, which saw an approximate daily average net inflow of $99 million for the same group of ETFs, based on total net inflows of $1.98 billion over 20 trading days [1]. The data indicates a substantial slowdown in net investment into these prominent spot Bitcoin ETFs during April compared to the previous month.
Cumulative daily net inflows fluctuated significantly throughout April. After an initial outflow of $11.1 million on April 1st, the cumulative net inflow for these ETFs generally increased, reaching a peak of approximately $894.1 million by April 10th [1]. However, the latter half of the month was characterized by significant outflows, predominantly from GBTC, and occasional outflows from newer ETFs like IBIT, FBTC, BITB, and ARKB [1]. This led to a substantial reduction in the overall cumulative figure, concluding April with a total net inflow of $88.5 million for these five ETFs [1].
Sources (1)
  1. 1Bitcoin ETF Flow (US$m) – Farside Investorsfarside.co.uk

6. What Bitcoin Option Strike Price Shows Heaviest Positioning?

Highest Open Interest Strike$75,000 (Last Friday of April Expiry) [1]
Total Options Value ExpiringOver $7.9 billion [1]
Dominant Option Type at $75KCall options [2]
The $75,000 Bitcoin options strike holds the highest open interest for options expiring on the last Friday of April. This strike price is identified as a "significant magnet" due to its "heavy positioning" and "heavily concentrated" open interest [1]. A substantial volume of Bitcoin options, valued at over $7.9 billion, is scheduled to expire on this specific date [1].
Call options predominantly comprise the open interest at the $75,000 strike, indicating a strong bullish sentiment among traders [2]. This concentration highlights the $75,000 level as a crucial focal point for the upcoming expiration.
Aggregated funding rate data for BTC perpetual futures was unavailable. The specific 7-day moving average of aggregated funding rates for BTC perpetual futures on platforms such as Binance and Bybit could not be provided. This is because the available sources for this metric are links to live data analytics platforms [3], which cannot be directly accessed or processed within a static research environment.
Sources (3)
  1. 1Bitcoin's $7.9B Options Expiry: The $75K Magnet and Gamma Trapainvest.com
  2. 2Bitcoin Options Flow Clusters at $75,000 Strike as Calls Dominate Open Interest - TokenPosttokenpost.com
  3. 3Pandabull | BTCUSD_PERP Funding Rates on Binance - Funding Rate Statisticspandabull.io

7. How Did Major Bitcoin Miners' Holdings Change Around the April 2024 Halving?

Bitcoin Halving DateApril 20, 2024 (Source: [1])
Marathon Digital BTC Change (April)Increased by 834 BTC (Source: [2])
Riot Platforms BTC Change (April)Decreased by 870 BTC (Source: [3])
Major public Bitcoin miners experienced a combined net reduction in April. From April 1st to the Bitcoin halving event on April 20, 2024 [1], and through the remainder of the month, publicly identified mining companies Marathon Digital Holdings and Riot Platforms collectively experienced a net reduction of 36 BTC in their reserves. This overall figure encompasses contrasting shifts in their individual Bitcoin holdings during the period.
Marathon Digital Holdings significantly increased its Bitcoin treasury during April. The company reported an accumulation of 834 BTC over the month. Marathon's Bitcoin reserves stood at 16,930 BTC as of March 31, 2024 [4], and subsequently grew to 17,764 BTC by April 30, 2024 [2], encompassing the period around the halving.
Riot Platforms substantially reduced its Bitcoin holdings in the same period. In contrast to Marathon, Riot Platforms decreased its Bitcoin balance by 870 BTC in April. Its holdings fell from 8,881 BTC at the end of March 2024 to 8,011 BTC by April 30, 2024 [3]. This period also saw some miners observed selling Bitcoin prior to the halving, a strategy potentially employed to manage operational costs or invest in efficiency improvements [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Bitcoin halving 2024 | LSEGlseg.com
  2. 2Marathon Digital Holdings Announces Bitcoin Production and Mining Operation Updates for April 2024markets.businessinsider.com
  3. 3Riot Announces April 2024 Production and Operations Updates | Riot Platformsriotplatforms.com
  4. 4Marathon Digital Holdings Announces Bitcoin Production andglobenewswire.com
  5. 5Post Halving – Bitcoin Miners Landscape - AMINA Bankaminagroup.com

8. How Do Stablecoin Inflows Correlate With Bitcoin Price?

Major Exchange Stablecoin Inflows$6 billion (March-April) [1]
Binance USDT Inflow$217 million (24-hour period) [2]
Stablecoin-Bitcoin Price CorrelationStrong correlation (inflow impacts BTC returns and trading volume) [3]
Centralized exchanges show significant, varied stablecoin inflows and outflows. While a precise net 14-day stablecoin flow across all centralized exchanges is not fully detailed, available data highlights notable movements. For example, one major centralized exchange experienced approximately $6 billion in stablecoin inflows over March and April [1]. Binance specifically recorded a net inflow of $217 million in USDT within a single 24-hour period [2]. Conversely, instances of USDC outflows have also been reported, including a $285 million shift mentioned in one report [4].
Stablecoin inflows strongly correlate with subsequent Bitcoin price increases. Data reveals a robust relationship between the cash inflow of all stablecoins and support for Bitcoin's price [3]. This correlation is further corroborated by academic research, which confirms the impact of stablecoin transfers on both the returns and trading volume of Bitcoin [5]. Consequently, substantial net inflows of stablecoins to centralized exchanges are often associated with local upward price movements for BTC in the subsequent 24-48 hours. This phenomenon is attributed to the increased buying power that these inflows represent, which becomes available on exchanges for acquiring cryptocurrencies.
Sources (5)
  1. 1Major CEX Attracted $6B in Stablecoin Inflows Over March and April | Gate Newsgate.com
  2. 2Binance Records Net Inflow of 217M USDT in 24 Hoursbitcoinethereumnews.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Price Supported By All-Stablecoins Cash Inflow – Data Reveals Strong Correlation — TradingView Newstradingview.com
  4. 4Bitcoin Draws $26.6M Inflows as USDC Sees $285M Outflow Shift - TokenPosttokenpost.com
  5. 5The impact of transparent money flows: Effects of stablecoin transfers on the returns and trading volume of Bitcoinsciencedirect.com

9. How Do Inflation Forecasts Impact Bitcoin's Price Volatility?

US CPI MoM Forecast (April 2026)0.4% [1]
Core PCE MoM Forecast (March 2026)0.3% [2]
Bitcoin-Nasdaq 100 CorrelationRecently reached a two-year high [3]
Upcoming April inflation reports show expected increases for key economic indicators. The consensus forecast for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) month-over-month (MoM) for April 2026 is projected at 0.4% [1]. Additionally, some prediction markets anticipate that April's US monthly inflation could potentially reach 0.5% [4]. For the March 2026 Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index MoM, which is typically released in April, the consensus estimate stands at 0.3% [2].
Bitcoin's price often reacts sharply to inflation reports, diverging from Nasdaq. Following these inflation announcements, Bitcoin frequently exhibits significant volatility, often deviating from its immediate 24-hour correlation with the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) [5]. Although Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq 100 recently hit a two-year high [3], 'hotter' (higher than expected) CPI prints typically trigger dips in Bitcoin's price due to heightened risk-off sentiment, sometimes amplifying movements observed in traditional tech stocks [5]. Conversely, a 'colder' (lower than expected) CPI report tends to foster risk-on sentiment, contributing to a boost in Bitcoin's price and, in certain instances, leading to an outperformance against the Nasdaq 100 [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1US Inflation MoM (CPI) Pre-Release: April 2026 Expectations Ahead of Apr 30, 2026 08:30 ET - FXMacroDatafxmacrodata.com
  2. 2March 2026 PCE Preview: The Supercore Read for the Fed | Ferrante Capitalferrantecapitaladvisers.com
  3. 3Bitcoin-Nasdaq correlation hits 2-year high as mixed US inflation data clouds Fed's pathcryptopolitan.com
  4. 4Will April US Monthly Inflation Land at 0.5%?lines.com
  5. 5How CPI Reports Shake Bitcoin: Lessons from History and Data | by Clometrix | Mediummedium.com

11. Related News

-39.0pp
Last updated: April 28, 2026, 12:40 UTC

Bitcoin April Highs Market Dims as $80K Price Target Falters

The prediction market for Bitcoin’s peak price in April 2026 experienced a sharp, bearish repricing during Monday's session (April 27, 2026), as traders significantly lowered the odds of the cryptocur...
-22.0pp
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Bitcoin Peak Price Market Pulls Back, Lowers Odds of Reaching $80K in April

The prediction market for Bitcoin’s peak price in April experienced a significant bearish repricing in the session ending Friday, April 24, 2026. Probabilities fell across all high-level targets, indi...
+26.0pp
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Bitcoin Market Prices Higher April Peak as $80K Test Odds Surge

The prediction market for Bitcoin's peak price in April saw a significant bullish repricing during the session on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Probabilities rose across all eligible high-strike contract...
-14.0pp
Last updated: April 28, 2026, 12:40 UTC

Bitcoin's April Peak Price Odds Fall as Market Aligns With Spot Reversal

Probabilities in the prediction market for Bitcoin’s peak price in April shifted significantly lower during the session on Saturday, April 18, 2026, as traders recalibrated expectations following a do...
+23.0pp
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Bitcoin April Peak Market Surges on Geopolitical Thaw, ETF Inflows

A prediction market for Bitcoin’s peak price in April saw a significant bullish repricing during the session on Friday, April 17, 2026, as the underlying spot asset surged to a 10-week high. The contr...

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 7 resolved YES, 13 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26APR30-7750000: YES (Apr 17, 2026)
  • KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26APR30-7500000: YES (Apr 14, 2026)
  • KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26APR30-7250000: YES (Apr 09, 2026)
  • KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26APR30-7000000: YES (Apr 06, 2026)
  • KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26MAR31-8750000: NO (Apr 01, 2026)