Short Answer

The ETH price on October 31, 2026, at 3am EDT was observed between $2,245 and $2,251, confirming it finished above $1,450. The market prices this outcome at 99.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • ETH price settled above $2,230, supported by the $2,245–$2,251 observed range.
  • Hourly candle bottom at $2,244.99 indicated the 60-second average exceeded this.
  • The $2,245–$2,251 range made a 'Yes' outcome above $2,259.99 improbable.

Current Context

ETH price and prediction markets converged around $2,240–$2,250 on October 31, 2026. At 3:00 AM EDT, the hourly ETH/USDT candle opened at $2,245.54 and closed near $2,250.06, with a high of $2,251.43 and a low of $2,244.99 [1]. The prediction market contract uses the CF Benchmarks Ethereum Real-Time Index, an average of 60 one-second observations during the final minute, not direct exchange candle values [2]. Daily reference data for October 31, 2026, placed ETH around $2,235–$2,242; Yahoo Finance reported an open of $2,241.18 and a close of $2,241.98, while Prdict and Myfin reported daily closes of $2,234.97 and $2,242.49, respectively [3][4][5]. A contemporaneous Bitget snapshot quoted ETH at $2,234.03, down 2.40% over 24 hours, with a daily range of $2,173.30–$2,290.88 [6]. The hourly prediction market for 3:00 AM EDT showed Public at 41% for the $2,240–$2,244.99 range [7]. Robinhood indicated approximately 92% probability for ETH at or above $2,235, 72% at or above $2,240, 26% at or above $2,245, and 6% at or above $2,250 [2]. A prediction-market snapshot for the broader day implied a median price of $2,248, with the middle half approximately $2,221–$2,275, and a 92% probability for the $2,200–$2,300 band [8].
Glamsterdam upgrade and bullish analyst targets shaped the longer-term outlook. Ethereum's key dated development was Glamsterdam, listed by ethereum.org for mainnet in Q4 2026, though the specific date is not yet confirmed [9][10]. The roadmap for Glamsterdam emphasizes enshrined proposer-builder separation and block-level access lists, intended to support parallel execution, scalability, and more predictable gas costs [10]. Cointelegraph cited industry observers who described Glamsterdam as a major milestone for scaling and decentralization [11]. Expert and market outlook remained bullish but highly uncertain. Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick set a $7,500 year-end 2026 target for ETH after lowering an earlier $12,000 target, calling 2026 "the year of Ethereum" and citing capital inflows, stablecoin and Real World Asset (RWA) adoption, and scaling improvements [12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Ethereum (ETH/USDT) Price, Chart and Market Data | Halkaarzhalkaarz.info
  2. 2ETH price on Oct 31, 2026 at 3am EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  3. 3Ethereum USD (ETH-USD) price history and historical data – Yahoo Financesg.finance.yahoo.com
  4. 4Ethereum (ETH) Price History, Chart | Historical Data for Ethereummyfin.us
  5. 5Ethereum price predictions - Prdictbettingmarkets.com
  6. 6Ethereum Price USD Today, Live Ethereum Price Chart & Valuebitget.com
  7. 7ETH price range on Oct 31, 2026 at 3am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  8. 8Ethereum price on October 31: Odds & Chart | 4Search Finance4search.com
  9. 9Glamsterdam | ethereum.orgethereum.org
  10. 10Ethereum roadmap | ⁦ethereum.org⁩ethereum.org
  11. 11The Biggest Blockchain Upgrades Coming in 2026cointelegraph.com
  12. 12Standard Chartered Says '2026 Will Be The Year Of Ethereum' As It Predicts 'ETH Outperformance'finance.yahoo.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to 'Yes' if the final ETH price is $2,240 or higher, and 'No' if it is below $2,240. The market expires on October 31, 2026, at 3:00 AM EDT. The final price is determined by averaging 60 Real Time Index (RTI) prices from CF Benchmarks, collected during the last minute before expiration.

Market Discussion

Traders are actively forecasting Ethereum's price on October 31, 2026, 3 am EDT, with strong consensus that it will be at or above $2,235 (98% chance, trending up). Confidence remains high, though lower at 72% (also trending up), for ETH to be at or above $2,240, which is close to its current price of $2,240.9058. However, there's minimal optimism for significant upward movement beyond this, with only 7% confidence for ETH to reach $2,245 or higher, a probability that has recently declined.

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 81 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score88Strong
Trade quality20% of score52Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $100 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score81Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
Market integrity
88Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
85Strong

No privileged early knowledge

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
65Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

6 contracts · worst first · 294 below the volume floor — not scored

$2,260 or above37
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$2,250 or above42
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$2,245 or above57
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$2,230 or above65
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$2,235 or above65
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$2,240 or above65
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

6 contracts · worst first · 294 below the volume floor — not scored

$2,230 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$2,235 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$2,240 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$2,245 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$2,260 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$2,250 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

6 contracts · worst first · 294 below the volume floor — not scored

$2,230 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$2,235 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$2,240 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$2,245 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$2,260 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$2,250 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
52Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 65 (notional-weighted across 6 scored legs)

$100 order: book too thin to fill

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

294 below the volume floor — not scored

$2,230 or above65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$2,235 or abovePrimary65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$2,240 or above65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$2,245 or above57Market scoreLiquidity57Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 57
Liquidity
57 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$2,260 or above37Market scoreLiquidity37Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 37
Liquidity
37 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$2,250 or above42Market scoreLiquidity42Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 42
Liquidity
42 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 31, 2026

5. What key technical milestones and potential delays for the Ethereum 'Glamsterdam' upgrade could impact its scheduled Q4 2026 launch?

Expected Mainnet UpgradeQ4 2026 (unconfirmed) [1][2][3][4]
Next Testnet MilestoneHoodi fork on October 27, 2026 [2]
Primary Delay RiskePBS implementation complexity and instability [3][5]
The Ethereum 'Glamsterdam' upgrade targets a Q4 2026 mainnet launch, though this timeline is unconfirmed [1][2][3][4]. Key technical milestones include stabilizing enshrined proposer-builder separation (ePBS), completing various devnets, integrating block-level access lists (BALs), and finalizing gas-repricing changes [1][2][3][4]. Before a mainnet fork date can be announced, further prerequisites involve publishing compatible execution and consensus clients, completing thorough security reviews, and successfully upgrading the Sepolia and Hoodi testnets, with the Hoodi fork specifically scheduled for October 27, 2026 [1][2][3].
Primary risks for delays stem from ePBS implementation and client integration challenges. The complexity and instability of ePBS, along with compatibility issues among client teams, pose significant threats to the schedule [3][5]. The Ethereum Foundation has acknowledged that ePBS is proving more difficult than initially anticipated, emphasizing that mainnet timing remains contingent on achieving stable devnets, solid client releases, comprehensive security reviews, and successful testnet deployments [3]. Significant progress has been noted between May and August 2026, including an end-to-end tested multi-client ePBS devnet, the finalization of EIP-8037 repricing, and a targeted 200-million-gas floor [5][4].
Beyond core protocol development, downstream tooling poses a major operational risk. Changes introduced by ePBS will alter how blocks are built and validated, while gas repricings could affect numerous existing tools such as wallets, indexers, and gas estimators that might incorporate hardcoded maximum limits [1][4]. These tools require updates and extensive testing by operators and application developers to ensure compatibility and functionality before the mainnet deployment [1][4].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Glamsterdam | ethereum.orgethereum.org
  2. 2Ethereum roadmap | ⁦ethereum.org⁩ethereum.org
  3. 3Checkpoint #9: Apr 2026 | Ethereum Foundation Blogblog.ethereum.org
  4. 4Announcing the Platåberget Testnet | Ethereum Foundation Blogblog.ethereum.org
  5. 5协议集群更新：2026 年 5 月 | 以太坊基金会博客blog.ethereum.org

6. What on-chain metrics and derivatives data from Q3 2026 support or contradict Standard Chartered's bullish year-end price targets for Ethereum?

Standard Chartered ETH 2026 TargetsNot available in supplied evidence [1][2][3]
Prediction Market ResolutionOctober 31, 2026 at 3:00 a.m. EDT [1][2][3]
Prediction Market ETH PriceApproximately $2,235-$2,240 [1][2][3]
Standard Chartered's price targets and relevant Q3 2026 data are unavailable. The research did not find Standard Chartered's 2026 Ethereum year-end price targets or any Q3 2026 Ethereum on-chain or derivatives statistics [1][2][3]. The provided Standard Chartered search results consisted of employment pages describing DLT, Ethereum, tokenization, and digital-asset treasury roles, which do not publish price targets, market views, or Q3 2026 metrics [4][5][6][7]. Consequently, it is not possible to draw an evidence-based conclusion about whether current fundamentals support or contradict any bullish year-end targets [1][2][3].
Prediction market pricing indicates a near-term Ethereum level of around $2,235-$2,240. For the prediction market resolving on October 31, 2026, at 3:00 a.m. EDT, the settlement methodology uses the average of 60 CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index observations collected during the final minute before expiration [1][2][3]. Market pricing for this prediction clustered around approximately $2,235-$2,240, with the prediction-market evidence supporting a near-term ETH level in this range [1][2][3]. However, this data provides only weak and inconsistent support for a price of $2,380 or higher [2][3].
Sources (7)
  1. 1ETH price on Oct 31, 2026 at 3am EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2ETH price on Oct 31, 2026 at 3am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  3. 3ETH price on Oct 31, 2026 at 3am EDT? — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  4. 4Engineering Tech Analyst Job Details | Standard Chartered Bankjobs.standardchartered.com
  5. 5DLT Senior Full Stack Engineer Job Details | Standard Chartered Bankjobs.standardchartered.com
  6. 6Credit Analyst, CPA Hub Job Details | Standard Chartered Bankjobs.standardchartered.com
  7. 7Treasury Assistant - Anchorpoint Job Details | Standard Chartered Bankjobs.standardchartered.com

7. How will Ethereum's projected transaction throughput and gas fees post-Glamsterdam compare to rivals like Solana and Avalanche based on their 2026 roadmaps?

Ethereum Gas Limit Target200M gas-limit floor [1]
Solana Alpenglow Finality TargetApproximately 150ms [2]
Avalanche C-Chain Observed Gas Limit40M [3]
Ethereum will significantly boost L1 capacity, though direct comparisons are complex. Post-Glamsterdam, Ethereum is projected to achieve a 200M gas-limit floor, which would substantially increase its L1 execution headroom and could reduce fee pressure at current demand levels [1]. This 200M gas capacity roughly doubles the previous 100M-gas baseline. However, this is a gas-capacity target, not a direct transactions-per-second (TPS) promise, as actual TPS depends on the transaction mix and execution overhead [1]. Directly comparing these blockchains is challenging because Ethereum gas, Solana compute units, and Avalanche gas measure different workloads [1].
Solana prioritizes raw throughput with ambitious roadmap targets. Solana's 2026 roadmap explicitly focuses on enhancing throughput, with the Agave 4.1 upgrade increasing block capacity from 60M to 100M compute units [2]. Agave 4.2 further targets 200ms slots and larger 4,096-byte transactions, while Alpenglow aimed for approximately 150ms finality [2]. Performance testing with Firedancer demonstrated throughputs of up to 1.2M TPS, and a hybrid validator recorded a 100,000-TPS mainnet burst [4][5]. It is important to note that these Solana figures are not directly comparable to Ethereum gas metrics or typical user transactions per second [4][5].
Avalanche C-Chain shows low fees but lower observed throughput. Explorer snapshots from the Avalanche C-Chain in July-August 2026 revealed a 40M gas limit in sampled blocks [3][6][7]. These snapshots also indicated very low base fees, ranging from 0.0126 to 0.0680 nAVAX per gas [3][6][7]. These are observed snapshots rather than formal 2026 roadmap forecasts for Avalanche [3][6][7]. While post-Glamsterdam Ethereum will improve its own L1 execution headroom, it is still likely to trail Solana in terms of raw monolithic-L1 throughput and finality [1]. The Avalanche C-Chain continues to be a low-fee, lower-throughput EVM alternative when compared to Ethereum [1]. Ethereum's primary competitive advantages remain its scaling headroom, robust ecosystem, and security [1].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Soldøgn Interop Recap ☀️ | Ethereum Foundation Blogblog.ethereum.org
  2. 2Solana-Netzwerk-Upgrades | Solana Mediasolana.com
  3. 3Block #89660131 | Avalanche L1 Explorersubnets.avax.network
  4. 4https://solana.com/en/news/blog-internet-capital-marketssolana.com
  5. 5Making Solana fast: from 33% skip rates to 100M compute unit blocks | Pirates Parley | Solana Mediasolana.com
  6. 6Block #92492642 | Avalanche L1 Explorersubnets.avax.network
  7. 7Block #89707871 | Avalanche L1 Explorersubnets.avax.network

8. How might the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions in H2 2026, particularly regarding interest rates, affect institutional investment in spot Ethereum ETFs?

Digital-asset-product inflows (Aug 2024)US$533 million (after dovish comments) [1]
Digital-asset-product outflows (Mar 2026)US$414 million (after shift to hike expectations) [2][3]
Spot Ethereum ETP assets under managementOver US$8.1 billion (late February 2025) [4][5]
Federal Reserve policy decisions significantly influence institutional investment in spot Ethereum ETFs. Expected changes in interest rates in H2 2026 are anticipated to impact these investments by affecting discount rates, opportunity costs, and overall risk appetite [3]. A dovish monetary stance, including potential rate cuts, would likely support Ethereum prices and drive increased ETF subscriptions. Conversely, pauses or interest rate hikes, particularly if prompted by inflation concerns, are expected to exert pressure on these investment flows [3].
Historical evidence illustrates digital asset flows' sensitivity to anticipated interest rate changes. For example, dovish statements made in August 2024 were followed by substantial digital-asset-product inflows totaling US$533 million [1]. Conversely, a shift in market expectations from rate cuts to hikes for the June FOMC meeting in March 2026 coincided with significant outflows, including US$414 million from digital-asset products overall and US$222 million specifically from Ethereum products [2][3]. These historical patterns provide directional insights rather than precise causal or quantitative predictions [3].
Upcoming FOMC meetings in H2 2026 coincide with significant Ethereum ETP assets. Scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meetings for the second half of 2026 include July 28–29, September 15–16, October 27–28, and December 8–9; the September and December meetings will also feature the Summary of Economic Projections [6][7]. While spot Ethereum ETPs held over US$8.1 billion in assets as of late February 2025 and had accumulated US$2.8 billion in net inflows since their launch [4][5], available sources do not directly estimate how each specific H2 Fed decision will change the prediction market outcome for the ETH price on October 31, 2026 [8][9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Digital Asset Fund Flows | August 26th 2024coinshares.com
  2. 2Digital asset fund flows - April 27 2026coinshares.com
  3. 3Mediumresearchblog.coinshares.com
  4. 4Meeting with Representatives of Grayscale Investments, LLC and Davis Polk & Wardwell LLPsec.gov
  5. 5Meeting with Representatives of Grayscale Investments, LLC and Davis Polk & Wardwell LLPsec.gov
  6. 6The Fed - Meeting calendars and informationfederalreserve.gov
  7. 7Federal Reserve Board - Calendar: December 2026federalreserve.gov
  8. 8ETH price on Oct 31, 2026 at 3am EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  9. 9ETH price on Oct 31, 2026 at 3am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  10. 10ETH price on Oct 31, 2026 at 3am EDT? — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com

9. What consensus is forming among institutional research desks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan regarding Ethereum's role in Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization for H2 2026?

Goldman Sachs 2026 Tokenized RWA Forecast$1.0T [1]
JPMorgan 2026 Tokenized Traditional Assets Live$29B-$30B [2][3]
JPMorgan JLTXX Investment (May 2026)$100M [3]
Institutions see Ethereum as a viable public rail for liquid RWAs. Institutional research desks, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, are reaching a conditional consensus for H2 2026 regarding Ethereum's role in tokenized real-world assets (RWAs). Ethereum is increasingly recognized as a credible public-chain settlement and distribution rail for liquid, regulated RWAs and programmable collateral. However, it is not viewed as the exclusive institutional ledger, nor does its adoption necessarily imply rapid scaling for illiquid asset classes. Institutions appear to leverage Ethereum's ecosystem and public-chain reach while employing permissioned or middleware layers for necessary controls, compliance, and operational integration [1][4][5][2][3].
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan project significant RWA market growth. Goldman Sachs maintains a pro-tokenization stance, projecting the tokenized RWA market capitalization to reach $1.0 trillion in 2026. This growth is anticipated to be driven by reduced intermediaries and settlement friction in assets such as bonds, money-market funds, and real estate [1]. JPMorgan's 2026 outlook indicates RWA adoption is progressing from pilot phases to production, particularly for high-quality liquid assets like money-market funds and short-duration Treasuries. JPMorgan specifically identifies the public Ethereum blockchain for distribution and settlement. The firm reported that more than $29 billion to $30 billion of tokenized traditional assets were live on public blockchains in 2026, marking over 200% year-over-year growth. This figure includes their May 2026 Ethereum launch of JLTXX, which involved a $100 million investment [4][5][2][3].
RWA adoption impacts Ethereum, but ETH price premium is not guaranteed. Despite the positive structural implications of RWA adoption for Ethereum's usage and institutional relevance, sources do not establish a direct or reliably mechanical ETH-price premium for H2 2026. Important caveats include fees, competition from other public and private chains, regulatory constraints, and the distinction between owning tokenized assets and owning ETH. JPMorgan also cautions that illiquid assets like private credit and real estate remain constrained more by market structure and liquidity issues than by technological limitations [1][4][5][2][3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Why digital asset adoption is acceleratinggoldmansachs.com
  2. 2How Kinexys Powers Finance Across Public and Private Chainsjpmorgan.com
  3. 3J.P. Morgan Asset Management Launches Second Tokenized Money Market Fund on Ethereum | J.P. Morgan Asset Managementam.jpmorgan.com
  4. 4Tokenized Money Market Funds on Kinexysjpmorgan.com
  5. 5Convergence in motion: Inside the institutional blockchain shiftjpmorgan.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The Oct. 31, 2026 3:00 a.m. EDT ETH market is settled from CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index, based on the average of 60 RTI observations during the minute immediately before 3:00 a.m. EDT [1][2][3][4]. Market-implied thresholds at the retrieved snapshot indicated approximately $2,235+ at 91–94%, $2,240+ at 55–72%, $2,245+ at 8–26%, $2,250+ at 2–6%, and $2,380+ at 45% on the displayed ladder; quotes varied by venue and liquidity [1][2][3]. The $2,240–$2,244.99 range contract showed about 41% estimated probability, while the $2,240-or-above contract was around 55–57% on Public and 72¢ on Robinhood [3][4]. The most useful point estimate is roughly $2,240–$2,245 [3][4]. A precise final ETH price cannot be known in advance, and displayed odds can change before settlement [3][4].
Near-term bearish catalysts included the postponed Glamsterdam Hoodi testnet activation and continued spot Ether ETF outflows of about $220.6 million for Oct. 19–23 [5][6]. Volatility was also anticipated around roughly 322,586 ETH options expiring Oct. 30, with reported maximum pain near $2,500 and puts concentrated near $2,300 [5].
Key timeline items around the target date included the Oct. 27–28 FOMC meeting and Oct. 28 decision/press conference, the Oct. 30 Deribit ETH options expiry, and the Oct. 30–31 Optimism and Celestia unlock window [7][8][5]. Ethereum upgrade timing remained uncertain, as no mainnet Glamsterdam date had been set [7][8][5]. Potentially bullish catalysts included continued Ethereum developer work toward Glamsterdam, specifically testnet rehearsal of account-abstraction and data-availability changes [9]. Broader risk-asset support could emerge if macro data or Federal Reserve communication became less hawkish [9]. These factors represent catalysts, not guaranteed directional signals [9].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: October 31, 2026
  • Expiration: November 07, 2026
  • Closes: October 31, 2026
Sources (9)
  1. 1ETH price on Oct 31, 2026 at 3am EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2ETH price on Oct 31, 2026 at 3am EDT? — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  3. 3ETH price on Oct 31, 2026 at 3am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  4. 4ETH price range on Oct 31, 2026 at 3am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  5. 5Ethereum Test, Fed Meeting and Options Expiry Converge Oct. 26-30 | TokenPosttokenpost.com
  6. 6Ethereum price pressured by upgrade delay and ETF outflowsad-hoc-news.de
  7. 7U.S. inflation, Ethereum upgrade talks: Crypto Week Aheadcoindesk.com
  8. 8Crypto Calendar October 2026: Token Unlocks, Regulatory, Fed Dates, And Bitcoin ETF Flows | Crypto University | Crypto Universitycryptouniversity.network
  9. 9Technicals signal bitcoin shift, Ethereum gears up for Glamsterdam: Crypto Week Aheadcoindesk.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXETHD-26OCT3102-T2944.99: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
  • KXETHD-26OCT3102-T2939.99: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
  • KXETHD-26OCT3102-T2934.99: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
  • KXETHD-26OCT3102-T2929.99: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
  • KXETHD-26OCT3102-T2924.99: NO (Oct 31, 2026)