Ripple price at Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

The SEC v. Ripple lawsuit concluded with a $125 million penalty. The U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York entered a final judgment, ending the nearly five-year legal dispute with Ripple paying a $125 million fine ^[1]. This judgment was officially entered on August 8, 2025, confirming the case's resolution before Q1 2026 as anticipated ^[1].

The ultimate judicial ruling distinguished between different XRP sales. The court affirmed that institutional sales of XRP were considered unregistered securities, specifically investment contracts, under U.S. law ^[2]. Conversely, programmatic sales of XRP to the general public were not deemed securities ^[2]. As a direct consequence, Ripple Labs was permanently enjoined from future unregistered sales of XRP to institutional investors ^[1].

The quarterly average transaction volume run through services like Ripple Payments (formerly ODL) is projected to reach approximately $154.25 billion during the last two quarters of 2025. This figure is derived from an anticipated annual XRP payment volume of $617 billion for 2025 ^[1]. During the second half of 2025, the XRP Ledger is expected to average 1.8 million daily transactions ^[2]. This period is anticipated to experience significant growth in cross-border payments facilitated by XRP, driven by factors such as regulatory clarity and institutional momentum ^[3].

New partnerships with top-50 global banks are not specifically projected by the research. The available web research does not specifically indicate that Ripple will have publicly announced at least two new partnerships with top-50 global banks by asset size by the end of the last two quarters of 2025. While there is mention of existing banks utilizing RippleNet/ODL ^[4] and a general 'institutional momentum' ^[3] in the market, the sources do not offer a projection or confirmation of new partnerships specifically meeting the criteria of 'top-50 global banks' by asset size within the specified timeframe.

Total 2025 XRP sales cannot be determined from available reports. Based on available information, the total volume of programmatic and institutional XRP sales for the full calendar year 2025 cannot be determined. Ripple's official XRP Markets Reports provide historical data for completed quarters, not forward-looking projections for an entire year ^[1]. Among the provided sources, only the Q1 2025 XRP Markets Report covers a period within 2025 ^[1]. Reports for subsequent quarters (Q2, Q3, and Q4 2025) would be necessary to sum to a full calendar year total, and these reports become available only after their respective quarters conclude, reflecting past performance rather than future predictions ^[1]. Furthermore, specific sales figures for Q1 2025 are not explicitly detailed within the provided source descriptions.

A complete 2022-2023 historical sales average is unobtainable. Similarly, a comprehensive historical average of programmatic and institutional XRP sales from 2022-2023 cannot be calculated from the given information. To achieve this, all quarterly reports for both years would be required. However, the provided sources only include the Q4 2022 XRP Markets Report ^[2], the Q1 2023 XRP Markets Report ^[3], and the Q4 2023 XRP Markets Report ^[4]. Reports for Q1-Q3 2022 and Q2-Q3 2023 are absent from the list of available sources. As with 2025, specific programmatic and institutional XRP sales figures for these available quarters in 2022 and 2023 are not detailed within the provided text of the "Available Sources."

Overall sales data is unavailable due to report limitations. In summary, the provided "Available Sources" do not permit determination of the total programmatic and institutional XRP sales for the full calendar year 2025, nor the calculation of a complete historical average for the 2022-2023 period. This limitation stems from the retrospective nature of Ripple's market reports, which do not forecast future sales, and the incompleteness of the supplied quarterly reports for the specified years ^[1]. Additionally, explicit numerical data on sales volumes for the available quarters are not included in the source descriptions.

No specific projection exists for XRP Ledger's native AMM TVL. While the expansion of native Automated Market Maker (AMM) pools on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) is expected to foster decentralized finance (DeFi) adoption ^[3], available sources do not provide a specific projected Total Value Locked (TVL) for these native AMM pools by February 2026. As of a recent observation, the TVL for the XRPL DEX, which encompasses AMM functionalities, stands at approximately $18.35 million ^[2]. By February 5, 2026, XRP's total circulating market capitalization is projected to reach $83.43 billion ^[1].

Significant growth is required to achieve the 1% adoption threshold. For the Total Value Locked in native AMM pools to constitute at least 1% of XRP's projected market capitalization of $83.43 billion by February 2026 ^[1], the TVL would need to reach approximately $834.3 million. This target is calculated as 1% of the projected market cap ($83.43 billion * 0.01). Given the current TVL of approximately $18.35 million ^[2], substantial growth would be necessary to meet the threshold of over $834 million. The XRP Ledger has implemented native AMM pools to enhance liquidity and facilitate decentralized trading directly on the ledger ^[4], aiming to expand DeFi activity within its ecosystem ^[3]. Without a specific quantitative projection for the future TVL by February 2026, it is not possible to definitively conclude whether this 1% adoption threshold will be met.

The XRP/BTC pair exhibits strong technical indicators suggesting future outperformance. Following the 2024 Bitcoin halving, XRP has displayed significant technical developments relative to Bitcoin. Notably, XRP formed its first-ever Golden Cross against Bitcoin on the weekly chart, a technical indicator often interpreted as a strong bullish signal pointing to increasing upward momentum ^[1]. Additionally, the XRP/BTC pair has retested a six-year breakout trendline, leading analysts to suggest a potential "decoupling." Such a decoupling implies that XRP could exhibit independent price action and potentially outperform Bitcoin during an anticipated bull cycle ^[2].

While specific criteria lack direct confirmation, the outlook aligns with market expectations. The provided research does not directly confirm XRP/BTC breaking and holding above its 200-week moving average for at least three consecutive months before March 2026. However, this timeframe aligns with general expectations for a broader crypto bull run, with some outlooks extending into 2026 ^[3]. The confluence of a weekly Golden Cross and the retest of a multi-year breakout trendline are considered significant technical events. These events could pave the way for a sustained period of strength for XRP relative to Bitcoin, creating a favorable environment for substantial outperformance against Bitcoin in the period leading up to March 2026 ^[1].