Short Answer

Squirtle is not expected to trade above $27.82 by the market's close on October 1, 2026, with the market pricing this outcome at 4.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The primary market movement, a 60 percentage point drop on September 17, 2026, has no identifiable catalyst based on available information. This collapse from 64.0% to 4.0% occurred the day after the Pokémon Trading Card Game 30th Celebration expansion launched, but research does not establish a causal link between the two events. The overall market shows a downward trend on low total volume of 1,086 contracts traded.
Earlier volatility in the month is similarly unexplained. A series of significant price spikes, including a 32.0pp move on September 3, a 38.0pp move on September 9, and an 11.0pp move on September 10, do not correspond to any specific news, announcements, or social media activity identified in the provided research. The market's sharp fluctuations appear disconnected from reported fundamental drivers.
  • Squirtle valuation trails Charmander, suggesting price may remain below $27.82.
  • Market probability for Squirtle "Above $27.82" dropped 60pp following the launch.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above $27.82 4.0% 5.9% Demand for popular Pokémon collectibles may support higher prices.

Current Context

Pokémon's 30th anniversary drives significant market volatility, especially for TCG. The Pokémon franchise is celebrating its 30th anniversary in 2026, marking its original 1996 Japan launch with special events, merchandise, and new trading card game sets [1][2][3]. The Pokémon Trading Card Game 30th Celebration expansion launched worldwide on September 16, 2026 [4][5][6]. This expansion features all-foil packs, a new "Futuristic rare" card type, 30 unique Pikachu rare cards, and reprints of 30 classic Pokémon cards [4][5][6]. The launch of this anniversary TCG set caused significant market disruption, including long queues, scalping, and extreme price volatility [7][8]. Rare "RGB" Mew cards from the set have sold for upwards of $20,000 USD on the secondary market [7].
Squirtle remains popular, but no specific market index exists. Squirtle maintains a high level of popularity, frequently appearing in collectible merchandise such as Jazwares plush sets, special Pokémon Center bundles, and recurring anime appearances alongside the Squirtle Squad [9][10][11]. Recent Squirtle-themed collectibles include a Squirtle Squad plush set released mid-2025 and a new line of Pokémon Tonies (featuring Squirtle, Pikachu, Bulbasaur, and Charmander), with pre-orders beginning in August 2026 [12][13][14]. However, there is no known specific entity or market index called "Squirtle Up Down" or "Squirtle Entertainment Collectibles" [15]. These terms appear to be misinterpretations stemming from recent Squirtle product releases and the broader market volatility surrounding the Pokémon anniversary [15].
Sources (15)
  1. 1Pokemon 30th Celebration Tcg Set Officially Revealed - IMDbimdb.com
  2. 2Pokémon's 30th Anniversary Begins With World's Most Expensive Pokémon Card Up For Auction - IMDbimdb.com
  3. 3Pokémon Officially Kicks Off 30th Anniversary With New Teaser - IMDbimdb.com
  4. 4"MEDIA ALERT: Pokémon Trading Card Game: 30th Celebration Expansion Launches Today, Commemorating 30 Years of Pokémon" - The Pokémon Company North America Official Press Sitepress.pokemon.com
  5. 5Pokémon TCG 30th Celebration Hits Stores Worldwide With All-Foil Packs and 30 Pikachu Cardsibtimes.com.au
  6. 6Pokémon TCG 30th Celebration expansion launches with all-foil cards and new Futuristic rare » kaiomics:: the blogblog.kaiomics.com
  7. 7Super Ugly Mew Cards Are The Chase For Pokémon’s 30th Anniversary, And One’s Already Sold For $20k - Kotakukotaku.com
  8. 8Pokémon's 30th anniversary booster packs have launched, raising concerns over queues and price hikes | GosuGamersgosugamers.net
  9. 9Pokémon's Greatest Anime Meme Is Making a Comeback With 1 Must-Have Collectible - IMDbimdb.com
  10. 10Ash Finally Reunites With Three of His Most Iconic Pokémon - IMDbimdb.com
  11. 11Squirtle - Notícias - IMDbimdb.com
  12. 12Pokemon Has Turned The Squirtle Squad Into A Set Of Matching Plushesthegamer.com
  13. 13Pokémon: Squirtle Tonie | tonies® USus.tonies.com
  14. 14The Tonies x Pokémon Collab Is Here & We Gotta Catch ‘Em All – Adorably Perfectadorablyperfect.com
  15. 15amiibo™ - Squirtle - Super Smash Bros.™ - Nintendo Official Sitenintendo.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📉 September 17, 2026: 60.0pp drop

Price decreased from 64.0% to 4.0%

Outcome: Above $27.82

What happened: Based on the provided web research, there is no credible evidence supporting a 60 percentage point drop in a "Squirtle Up or Down" prediction market on September 17, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. While a specific Squirtle card (#170 from the Korean Scarlet & Violet 151 set) had a documented valuation of $27.82 as of August 22, 2026 [5][6], September 2026 news regarding Squirtle centered on unrelated topics like new Pokémon Jets, earlier LEGO promotions, and software bug fixes [1][2][3][4]. Therefore, without evidence that this price movement occurred, it is impossible to identify a primary driver from social media, traditional news, or market structure factors. Social media activity is irrelevant as the core event itself is not supported by the available information.

📈 September 10, 2026: 11.0pp spike

Price increased from 45.0% to 56.0%

Outcome: Above $27.82

What happened:

Based on the provided web research, there is no evidence to support an 11.0 percentage point spike in a "Squirtle Up or Down" market "Above $27.82" specifically on September 10, 2026 [7][8]. The specified price figure of $27.82 is noted as a general baseline for various Pokémon cards, not a specific threshold tied to a Squirtle market event on that date [9][10][6]. Furthermore, the available data does not substantiate the specific narrative of such a market movement [7].

Therefore, without evidence that the described price movement occurred, it is not possible to identify a primary driver from social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors. Social media activity appears irrelevant to this hypothetical event, as the event itself is unsupported by the provided information.

📈 September 09, 2026: 38.0pp spike

Price increased from 18.0% to 56.0%

Outcome: Above $27.82

What happened: The available research does not provide verifiable evidence for a "Squirtle Up or Down" market spike of 38.0 percentage points with a $27.82 baseline occurring on September 9, 2026 [5-16]. Therefore, identifying a primary driver for this specific movement is not possible. While Nintendo announced new "Pokopia" content featuring Squirtle sunglasses [11] and a different Squirtle Pokémon card saw a minor 11.4% price increase on that date [8][12], these events do not correspond to the magnitude or baseline of the described market movement. Social media activity related to such a significant spike is not reported in the provided sources.

📈 September 03, 2026: 32.0pp spike

Price increased from 12.0% to 44.0%

Outcome: Above $27.82

What happened: The available research does not identify a specific widely documented 32.0 percentage point spike for a Squirtle collectible on September 3, 2026, nor any direct social media activity or news announcement that would be the primary driver for such a precise movement [13]. While the broader Pokémon TCG market experienced massive volatility in early September 2026, driven by anticipation of the 30th anniversary set launch on September 16, 2026, no specific event or social media post is linked to the reported Squirtle prediction market spike [14]. Given the absence of supporting evidence within the provided sources, social media appears to be irrelevant as a primary driver for this particular market movement.
Sources (14)
  1. 1Pokémon Jets revealed, Pokémon GO partnership announced (UPDATE) | GoNintendogonintendo.com
  2. 2McDonald's Japan Pokémon 30th Anniversary Burgers: Charma...nintendonewshub.com
  3. 3Pokémon Pokéopia Update Fixes the Infamous “Tree-Climbing Squirtle” Bug – Techcraverstechcravers.net
  4. 4LEGO Pokémon 40887 Ditto as Squirtle: Movie Night GWP Officially Revealed | August 2026bricksup.co.uk
  5. 5Squirtle #170 | Guardian TCGguardiantcg.app
  6. 6Squirtle PSA 10 vs PSA 9 vs Raw — Grade Comparison (August 2026) | Guardian TCGguardiantcg.app
  7. 7Squirtle 170/165 Scarlet & Violet 151 value and price | PokeValuespokevalues.com
  8. 8Squirtle #007/165 Pokemon card price - SV: Scarlet & Violet 151poketrace.com
  9. 9Azumarill Price - Neo Genesis - Pokemon TCG - Out of Gamesoutof.games
  10. 10Neo Genesis (NEO-GENESIS) All products — Pokemon Prices & Values - CardNexuscardnexus.com
  11. 11Wednesday: Pokémon Champions - Version 1.2 Update - Serebii.net Newsserebii.net
  12. 12Prezzo carta Pokemon Squirtle #007/165 - SV: Scarlet & Violet 151poketrace.com
  13. 13Pokémon TCG Price Movers (September 2026): Top Gainers, Losers & Markemonstercardcorner.co.uk
  14. 14Pokémon's 30th anniversary booster packs have launched, raising concerns over queues and price hikes | GosuGamersgosugamers.net

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if the price of the Squirtle card is above $27.82, and NO if it is $27.82 or below. The maximum payout date for this market is September 30, 2026.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above $27.82 $0.12 $0.96 4%

Market Discussion

Prediction market platforms launched trading contracts in mid-August 2026, allowing users to bet "Up" or "Down" on the ungraded price of specific Pokémon cards, including Squirtle, by a set date [1]. Trading volume for these contracts has remained relatively small, reflecting a mix of trader curiosity and market volatility rather than broad conviction [2]. While Squirtle is prominent in entertainment collectibles and internet culture [3], there is no evidence of a distinct trend or market specifically known as "Squirtle Up Down" outside of these prediction market contracts [4].

Sources (4)
  1. 1Polymarket Launches Predictions Market for Pokémon Cards | Market Editor's Pick | CryptoRank.iocryptorank.io
  2. 2Polymarket Launches Predictions Market for Pokémon Cards — Latest News | MetaTradermetatrader.com
  3. 3Pokémon's Greatest Anime Meme Is Making a Comeback With 1 Must-Have Collectiblescreenrant.com
  4. 4Pokémon's Greatest Anime Meme Is Making a Comeback With 1 Must-Have Collectible - IMDbimdb.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 75 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score38High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score75Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
83Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesMoves carried volume Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
47Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

1 contract

Above $27.8247
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 68% vs realized 5%
Move quality
80Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

1 contract

Above $27.8280
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Above $27.82100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
38High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 47 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 22.2c slippage (~278% of a 8c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Above $27.82Primary47Market scoreLiquidity47Move quality80Rule clarity100
Why 47
Liquidity
47 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 68% vs realized 5%
Move quality
80 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 17, 2026

6. To what extent are scalping and market speculation influencing Squirtle card prices versus organic collector demand following the Pokémon 30th Celebration TCG launch?

30th Anniversary Set Launch DateSeptember 16, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]
Prediction Market Outcome ExampleJuly 2026 contract resolved as 'No' with 94% probability for Squirtle [6][7]
Market Debate FocusSpeculative trading versus organic collector demand [8][9][10]
The Pokémon TCG market debates speculation versus organic demand. Following the global release of the Pokémon TCG 30th Anniversary "30th Celebration" set on September 16, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5], the market continues to navigate ongoing discussions concerning the influence of speculative trading compared to organic collector demand [8][9][10]. Market participants have expressed apprehension that crypto-linked or investment-focused entities are affecting prices, distinct from traditional collector interest, with these discussions extending to various cards, including Squirtle [6][7][8][9][10].
Squirtle card prices are tracked in volatile prediction markets. Squirtle cards have frequently been the subject of active prediction markets, which monitor "Up or Down" movements based on specific ungraded price thresholds [6][7]. Historically, these "Squirtle Up or Down" prediction markets have demonstrated high volatility and skepticism among participants. For example, a July 2026 contract related to Squirtle resolved as "No" with a 94% probability, indicating the price did not achieve its specified threshold [6][7].
The research does not quantify specific speculative influences on Squirtle. While the conducted research details these general market debates and the historical behaviors observed in prediction markets, it does not quantify the specific extent to which scalping and market speculation influence Squirtle card prices in contrast to organic collector demand following the Pokémon 30th Celebration TCG launch.
Sources (10)
  1. 1EVERY Pokémon TCG 30th Anniversary product has officially been...instagram.com
  2. 2POKÉMON 30TH ANNIVERSARY CELEBRATION — FULL...instagram.com
  3. 3ALL 30th Celebration Products REVEALED! Here's the full release...instagram.com
  4. 4Are Pokemon Center Etbs Out for 30 Celebration | TikToktiktok.com
  5. 5Tomorrow kicks off the 30th anniversary of Pokémon & we're...facebook.com
  6. 6Squirtle Up or Down: July — Sonuç: No | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  7. 7Kalshi Markets: DSA, Trump UFC 332, Chinese AIpredictionnewsnetwork.com
  8. 8Is this the greatest PokemonTCG bubble ever? A first-...elitefourum.com
  9. 9Pokémon TCG Market Trends 2020-2026cardsnpacks.com
  10. 10Inside the Pokémon Card Gold Rush. Should You Invest?news.northeastern.edu

7. What is the historical price performance of benchmark Squirtle trading cards, such as the Base Set original and recent reprints, leading into Q4 2026?

Squirtle Card Price Threshold$31.54 (July 2026 contract settlement) [1][2]
Scarlet & Violet 151 (170/165) IncreaseUp 778% (certain points in 2026) [3]
Mega Evolution Sets Decline-8.9% (September 2026) [3]
Squirtle trading card prices show variable performance leading into Q4 2026. Leading into Q4 2026, benchmark Squirtle trading cards have demonstrated variable historical price performance. Prediction markets on Kalshi in September 2026 featured "Up or Down" contracts for Squirtle trading cards, with a July 2026 contract settling to 'No', indicating that prices remained below the target threshold of $31.54 [1][2]. However, available information does not provide specific historical price performance details for the "Base Set original" Squirtle card for this period.
Contemporary Squirtle variants achieved significant gains amidst a mixed market. While specific data for the original Base Set Squirtle is not detailed, contemporary Squirtle card variants have experienced notable market activity. For instance, the Scarlet & Violet 151 (170/165) illustration rare variant showed sharp percentage increases, being up 778% at certain points in 2026 [3]. Base sets continue to be recognized as staple collectibles within the broader market. The overall Pokémon TCG market in Q3 2026 presented mixed performance; although some cards maintained steady valuations, newer expansion sets, such as Mega Evolution sets, experienced price fluctuations and declines of -8.9% in September 2026 [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Squirtle Up or Down: July — Sonuç: No | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  2. 2Kalshi Markets: DSA, Trump UFC 332, Chinese AIpredictionnewsnetwork.com
  3. 3Wartortle Card Prices & Value 2026 | 34 Cards Rankedpokemonwizard.com

8. How does the secondary market valuation for Squirtle collectibles compare to that of the other Kanto starters, Bulbasaur and Charmander, in late 2026?

Charmander Target Valuation$38.92 (August 2026) [1]
Squirtle Target Valuation$26.82 (August 2026) [1]
Bulbasaur Target Valuation$27.23 (August 2026) [1]
Charmander's valuation significantly surpassed Squirtle and Bulbasaur in late 2026. In August 2026, prediction markets indicated that Charmander held a considerably higher secondary market valuation compared to both Squirtle and Bulbasaur. Charmander's target threshold was $38.92, notably above Squirtle's $26.82 and Bulbasaur's $27.23 [1]. This data suggests Charmander's valuation benchmark was significantly greater than the other two Kanto starters [1].
Squirtle's secondary market value remained below $31.54. Further analysis of prediction markets in July 2026 indicated that Squirtle's price was unlikely to exceed $31.54. A prediction market concerning whether Squirtle's price would surpass this figure concluded with a 'No' at 94% confidence [2]. This outcome suggested that Squirtle's secondary market value was trading below the $31.54 mark during that period [2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1Kalshi Markets: DSA, Trump UFC 332, Chinese AIpredictionnewsnetwork.com
  2. 2Squirtle Up or Down: July — Sonuç: No | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

9. Which data platforms, such as TCGPlayer or PriceCharting, provide the most reliable pricing data for Pokémon cards in 2026?

Primary Pricing Source (2026)TCGPlayer [1][2][3]
Prediction Market Resolution PlatformCollectr [1][4][5]
Kalshi 'Squirtle Up or Down' ResolutionCollectr ungraded price (July 2026) [6][5]
For 2026, TCGPlayer is a primary source for Pokémon card pricing. This platform is widely recognized as a standard, often integrated by third-party aggregators with data from eBay sold listings, auction results, and other sources to furnish comprehensive market values [1][2][3].
Collectr is a reliable platform for resolving price-based betting markets. Prediction markets, such as Kalshi, specifically use Collectr as a dependable data source to settle wagers tied to the prices of particular Pokémon cards [1][4][5]. An illustration of this is Kalshi’s 'Squirtle Up or Down' prediction market, which references the ungraded card price listed on the Collectr platform for its resolution; this market previously resolved to 'No' for the July 2026 period based on its predetermined threshold [6][5].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Pokemon Card Worth Checker - How Much Are Your...pokescope.app
  2. 2Free Ungraded & PSA, Trading Card Price Guidepricecharting.com
  3. 3The Biggest Price Spikes in Pokémon this Week - 04/29/2026tcgplayer.com
  4. 4Where to Buy Pokémon Cards 2026: Every Channel...thecardshopfinder.com
  5. 5Squirtle Up or Down: July — Sonuç: No | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  6. 6Kalshi Markets: DSA, Trump UFC 332, Chinese AIpredictionnewsnetwork.com

10. What do early pull rates and graded population reports for the 30th Celebration expansion suggest about the supply of key Squirtle cards?

Expansion Release DateSeptember 16, 2026 [1][2][3]
Standard Card Pull RateOver 40% of packs contain only the guaranteed Pikachu [4][5][6]
Graded Population ReportsCurrently statistically negligible [7][5][8]
The Pokémon TCG: 30th Celebration expansion launched globally on September 16, 2026 [1][2][3]. This expansion includes Squirtle cards, specifically a promotional card (003/30th-P) and references to the first-partner trio in associated product sets [9][10][11][12]. However, Squirtle is not classified as a headline rarity, unlike the Futuristic Rares found in the main expansion [9][10][11][12].
Early pull rate analysis indicates a high supply for standard-rarity cards within the expansion. Over 40% of packs contained only the guaranteed Pikachu, suggesting a similar trend for key Squirtle cards given their classification within the standard rarity pool [4][5][6]. This analysis points towards a potentially high market supply for these Squirtle cards.
Graded population reports are not yet available to offer insight into verified supply. Due to the expansion's recent release date, graded population reports are currently non-existent or statistically negligible [7][5][8]. Consequently, market sentiment regarding these Squirtle cards is driven by factors such as unverified leakage, pull-rate speculation, and pre-order pricing, rather than official, verified supply data from graded cards [7][5][8].
Sources (12)
  1. 1"MEDIA ALERT: Pokémon Trading Card Game: 30th Celebration Expansion Launches Today, Commemorating 30 Years of Pokémon" - The Pokémon Company North America Official Press Sitepress.pokemon.com
  2. 2Get Ready for Pokémon TCG: 30th Celebrationpokemon.com
  3. 3See Legendary Pokémon and More from Pokémon TCG: 30th Celebrationpokemon.com
  4. 430th Celebration Pull Rates - Pokemon TCG - DigitalTQdigitaltq.com
  5. 5Pokémon 30th Anniversary Pull Rates & Pack Odds — 267 Packs of Early Leak Data (2026)tcgtalk.com
  6. 6Pokémon 30th Anniversary Pack Odds Calculator — Your Chance of Pulling an SIR, IR or FUR (2026)tcgtalk.com
  7. 7Pokémon TCG: 30th Celebration Release Date, Cards & Productstcgscreener.com
  8. 830th Celebration Pull Rates: What Is Confirmed (2026)samuraiswordtokyo.com
  9. 9Squirtle (30th Anniversary Celebration 003/30th-P) | PokéCardexpokecardex.com
  10. 10Squirtle (30th Anniversay Celebration 003/30th-P) (Chinese TCG) – TCG Collectortcgcollector.com
  11. 11Squirtle - 30th Anniversary Celebration Simplified Chinese | Eyevo - Pokemon TCG Scannereyevotcg.com
  12. 1230th Celebration Card Set: All 27 Promos Checklistsamuraiswordtokyo.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

"Squirtle Up/Down" prediction market contracts, launched in August 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6], center on the ungraded price of the Squirtle Mega Evolution Promo card (Promo #039) [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Sentiment in these markets is driven by raw sales data, the performance of the broader Pokémon TCG market (vintage vs. modern), and liquidity within the ungraded promo card segment [6]. Specific catalysts for these contracts include monthly card-show results, new Black Star Promo releases, and trading volume spikes on platforms such as TCGPlayer and eBay [6].
Broader Pokémon franchise markets face additional catalysts in 2026. These include ongoing 30th anniversary celebrations [7][8][9], the release of Mega Evolution — Perfect Order in March 2026 [10], and continued speculation surrounding Pokémon Gen 10 game release dates [7].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: December 30, 2026
  • Closes: October 01, 2026
Sources (10)
  1. 1Squirtle Up or Down: | Prediction Markets - Coinbasecoinbase.com
  2. 2https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/squirtle-price-up-down-on-august-31-20260814122817118polymarket.copilot.markets
  3. 3Polymarket Launches Predictions Market for Pokémon Cards | Market Editor's Pick | CryptoRank.iocryptorank.io
  4. 4Polymarket Launches Predictions Market for Pokémon Cardsfinance.yahoo.com
  5. 5Polymarket Launches Pokemon Card Price Prediction Markets Today | Gate Newsgate.com
  6. 6https://polymarket.copilot.markets/pl/event/squirtle-price-up-down-on-september-30-20260824121703117polymarket.copilot.markets
  7. 7Pokémon Gen 10 Release Date Leak Leaves Gamers Torn - IMDbimdb.com
  8. 8Pokémon Officially Kicks Off 30th Anniversary With New Teaser - IMDbimdb.com
  9. 9New Pokémon Card Trademark Hinting At Massive 30th Anniversary Set - IMDbimdb.com
  10. 10Pokémon Officially Confirms Massive March 2026 Release - IMDbimdb.com

12. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: "Squirtle Up/Down" prediction market contracts, launched in August 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6], center on the ungraded price of the Squirtle Mega Evolution Promo card (Promo #039) [1][2][3][4][5][6].
  • Trigger: Sentiment in these markets is driven by raw sales data, the performance of the broader Pokémon TCG market (vintage vs. modern), and liquidity within the ungraded promo card segment [6].
  • Trigger: Specific catalysts for these contracts include monthly card-show results, new Black Star Promo releases, and trading volume spikes on platforms such as TCGPlayer and eBay [6].
  • Trigger: Broader Pokémon franchise markets face additional catalysts in 2026.
Sources (6)
  1. 1Squirtle Up or Down: | Prediction Markets - Coinbasecoinbase.com
  2. 2https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/squirtle-price-up-down-on-august-31-20260814122817118polymarket.copilot.markets
  3. 3Polymarket Launches Predictions Market for Pokémon Cards | Market Editor's Pick | CryptoRank.iocryptorank.io
  4. 4Polymarket Launches Predictions Market for Pokémon Cardsfinance.yahoo.com
  5. 5Polymarket Launches Pokemon Card Price Prediction Markets Today | Gate Newsgate.com
  6. 6https://polymarket.copilot.markets/pl/event/squirtle-price-up-down-on-september-30-20260824121703117polymarket.copilot.markets

14. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 6 resolved YES, 14 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXPOKEMON-26AUGTEAROCMO-359.62: NO (Sep 01, 2026)
  • KXPOKEMON-26AUGPHAFLABO-412.28: NO (Sep 01, 2026)
  • KXPOKEMON-26AUGMEGCHAYE-445.06: NO (Sep 01, 2026)
  • KXPOKEMON-26AUGMEGDRAEX-735.23: NO (Sep 01, 2026)
  • KXPOKEMON-26AUGPIKEX-1160.2: NO (Sep 01, 2026)