Will Johnny Depp be cast in the next Pirates of the Caribbean?
Yes refers to: Johnny Depp
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Producer Jerry Bruckheimer publicly favors Johnny Depp's return.
- Film insurance costs for controversial actors are confidential and customized.
- Two distinct Pirates of the Caribbean 6 screenplays are in development.
- Discussions suggest Johnny Depp's potential return to the Pirates franchise.
- Disney reportedly targets a 2026 filming start for the next Pirates movie.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Depp | 48.0% | 50.0% | Johnny Depp was the iconic lead for the franchise, generating significant fan demand for his return. |
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if Johnny Depp is cast in the next Pirates of the Caribbean film before January 1, 2035, based on reporting from specified news organizations including The Hollywood Reporter, The New York Times, and others. If he is not cast by this date and time (January 1, 2035, 10:00 AM EST), the market resolves to "No." The market will close early if the casting event occurs, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Depp | $0.50 | $0.51 | 48% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. Trust Index
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
5. Can Jerry Bruckheimer Bring Johnny Depp Back to Pirates?
| Producer's Desire for Depp | "If It's Up To Me, He'll Be In It" [1] |
|---|---|
| Depp's Potential Willingness | Bruckheimer believes Depp would do it after discussions [2] |
| Bruckheimer's Disney First-Look Deal | Ended in 2014 [3] |
Sources (4)
- 1Pirates of the Caribbean 6 Producer Confirms Johnny Depp's Return as Jack Sparrow Is Being Planned: 'If It's Up To Me, He'll Be In It' (Exclusive)thedirect.com
- 2Jerry Bruckheimer Gives Update on Johnny Depp's Return as Captain Jack Sparrow in PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 6 — GeekTyrantgeektyrant.com
- 3Disney And Jerry Bruckheimer To End First-Look Film Deal In 2014deadline.com
- 4Disney, Jerry Bruckheimer Ready to Discuss His Future at Mouse Housevariety.com
6. Are Disney Film Insurance Costs Publicly Available for Controversial Actors?
| Specific Insurance/Bond Quotes | Not publicly available (Confidential) [1] |
|---|---|
| Completion Bond Cost Range | Typically 3% to 6% of production budget, up to 10% for high-risk films [2] |
| Increased Morality Clause Usage | Particularly after 2018 [3] |
Sources (5)
- 1Premiere Production Insurance: ProductionInsurance.comproductioninsurance.com
- 2Film Production Completion Bond - Allen Financial Insurance Groupeqgroup.com
- 3Bad actors could prompt insurance morality clauses in film industrypostcrescent.com
- 4How Much Is Tom Cruise Insured For? His Wild Stunts Come at a Hefty Price - Newsweekdev10.newsweek.com
- 5How Do Movie Producers Insure Lindsay Lohan And Other Troubled Stars?npr.org
7. Will Johnny Depp Be In The Next Pirates of the Caribbean Movie?
| Number of scripts in development | Two, one with younger ensemble and one with Margot Robbie [1] |
|---|---|
| Disney's preferred script | Script without Johnny Depp [2] |
| Producer confirmation on Johnny Depp | Not featured in current project [3] |
Sources (4)
- 1Pirates Of The Caribbean 6 Script Update Shared By Producerscreenrant.com
- 2“We’re working on a script”: Pirates of the Caribbean 6 Had 2 Scripts But Disney Wanted the One That Wasn’t Johnny Deppfandomwire.com
- 3End of an Era: Johnny Depp Officially Passes the Compass as Margot Robbie Takes the Helm for ‘Pirates of the Caribbean 6’insidethemagic.net
- 4Pirates of the Caribbean 6 Producer Confirms Johnny Depp's Return as Jack Sparrow Is Being Planned: 'If It's Up To Me, He'll Be In It' (Exclusive)thedirect.com
8. What Are Johnny Depp's Current Demands for Pirates Return?
| Prior Deal for Pirates 6 | $22.5 million [1] |
|---|---|
| Current Specific Demands | Not detailed in available sources [2] |
| Producer Confirmation of Return | Plans for his return as Jack Sparrow [2] |
Sources (3)
- 1Johnny Depp was set to earn $22.5M from sixth Pirates of the Caribbean movie, agent says | Daily Mail Onlinedailymail.co.uk
- 2Johnny Depp Set to Return to Save ‘Pirates’ After Public Disney Exit, Producer Saysinsidethemagic.net
- 3Johnny Depp Was to Receive $22.5 Million for 'Pirates 6,' Agent Saysvariety.com
9. What is the filming timeline for Pirates of the Caribbean 6?
| Filming Start Target | 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| Potential Release Date | 2027 [2] |
| Market Research for Jack Sparrow | None mentioned for next 18 months [1] |
Sources (3)
- 1Disney Sends 'Pirates of the Caribbean 6' Filming Date to Hollywood Execs, Timeline Revealedinsidethemagic.net
- 2Pirates of the Caribbean 6 Release Timeline, Johnny Depp Return Speculation & Story Detailsfandomwire.com
- 3New 'Pirates 6' Casting Information Surfaces as Jack Sparrow's Son Reportedly Leading Future Franchiseinsidethemagic.net