"Moana" Rotten Tomatoes score?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Above 20 is most likely, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- "Above 30" is highly probable, with the film's reported score at 36%.
- Market probabilities reflect conflicting expectations for minor score fluctuations around 36%.
- Scores above 40% appear highly improbable given the film's 36% score.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | — | — | Insufficient data |
Current Context
Early reviews for the 2026 live-action Moana remake are largely negative. It debuted with a critical approval rating of approximately 32-33% on Rotten Tomatoes [^][^]. Critical consensus identifies the remake as unnecessary, lacking the original's distinctiveness, and overly faithful, though Catherine Laga'aia's performance garnered praise [^][^]. Box office projections for the 2026 live-action Moana's North American opening weekend are estimated between $40 million and $65 million [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This contract has traded in an exceptionally narrow and high-conviction range, opening at 97.0% and moving sideways between 95.0% and 99.0%. The current price of 99.0% reflects a market with very little uncertainty about a positive outcome. Total volume is moderate at 2,720 contracts, suggesting consistent participation without major speculative shifts. The price floor has been firmly established at 95.0%, a level that has not been breached, while the price has tested and held the 99.0% ceiling.
The price action is completely detached from the negative early reviews for the 2026 live-action Moana remake (32-33% score) and the mixed reception for the 2024 animated sequel (61% score). Instead, the trading band of 95-99% directly corresponds to the 95% critical score of the original 2016 animated film. This indicates traders are pricing the contract based on the established, stable rating of the first movie. The lack of any price reaction to news about the newer films suggests the market believes those outcomes are irrelevant to the contract's resolution.
Market sentiment, as reflected by the chart, is one of near certainty. The stability of the price at such a high level implies a consensus that the contract pertains to the well-regarded 2016 film. The price action shows no hedging against the poor performance of subsequent franchise entries.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 40
📉 July 09, 2026: 15.0pp drop
Price decreased from 26.0% to 11.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 15.0 percentage point drop was the official Rotten Tomatoes score for the live-action "Moana" (2026) being reported at 36% on July 9, 2026 [^]. This score significantly fell below the "Above 40" outcome predicted by the market. Early reports on July 8, 2026, had already indicated a critical disappointment, with scores ranging between 31% and 35% [^][^][^][^][^]. Social media then served as a contributing accelerant, widely citing the film's low critic scores compared to previous installments as a negative catalyst [^].
Outcome: Above 45
📉 July 08, 2026: 77.0pp drop
Price decreased from 83.0% to 6.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 77.0 percentage point drop in the "Moana" Rotten Tomatoes prediction market was the official debut of the film's critic score. On July 8, 2026, the live-action Moana remake debuted on Rotten Tomatoes with a score ranging between 31% and 33% [^][^][^]. This news directly contradicted the "Above 45" outcome of the market, causing its price to plummet as it became clear the outcome was unlikely. Social media was irrelevant as a primary driver based on the provided information.
Outcome: Above 55
📉 June 28, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 59.0% to 50.0%
What happened: Based on the provided information, there is no documented evidence or news reporting of a specific 9.0 percentage point drop in the "Moana" Rotten Tomatoes prediction market on June 28, 2026, nor any recognized social media catalyst for that date [^][^][^]. While the live-action "Moana" remake later received a low Rotten Tomatoes critic score between 31% and 33% (as of July 8-9, 2026), these scores and related news emerged after the specified market movement date [^][^][^][^]. Therefore, the primary driver for the alleged June 28, 2026 price movement cannot be identified from the available data. Social media activity for the specified date appears to be irrelevant due to a lack of evidence.
📈 June 25, 2026: 39.0pp spike
Price increased from 22.0% to 61.0%
What happened: The reported 39.0 percentage point spike in the "Moana" Rotten Tomatoes score prediction market for "Above 55" on June 25, 2026, appears to be an unrelated data point or confusion with other prediction market events [^][^]. As of July 9, 2026, the 2026 live-action Moana remake holds a 35% critic approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes, with critics widely panning the film as one of Disney's lowest-rated live-action remakes [^][^][^][^]. Reports from July 8-9, 2026, consistently indicate that forecasts for the film's Rotten Tomatoes score were sinking, not spiking upwards [^][^]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver for a price movement that likely did not occur in this specific market as described.
Outcome: Above 75
📉 June 26, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 18.0% to 9.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 9.0 percentage point drop in the "Moana" Rotten Tomatoes market on June 26, 2026, was likely the negative critical reception following the film's early international release. This early reception contributed to a general downward trend in predicted scores throughout June 2026 [^]. The market adjusted expectations downward as the film's Tomatometer score eventually settled between 31% to 36% as of July 9, 2026 [^][^][^]. Based on the provided information, social media activity was irrelevant to this specific price movement.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if "Moana" has a Tomatometer score strictly above 35, as verified from Rotten Tomatoes on July 13, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. If the score is 35 or less, the market resolves NO. The market closes at the time of score verification, with payouts projected shortly after.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|
Market Discussion
The market discussion for "Moana"'s Rotten Tomatoes score shows a strong sentiment towards a lower score, particularly below 45%, though the "Above 35" market is currently split at 49% Yes. Key arguments for a lower score include an increasingly harsh critical environment for such films and a low critic turnout (67 reviews) so far, with expectations that major press reviews will be harsher. While some believe the score will still settle slightly above 35%, a prominent trader ("jets") is influencing opinion with detailed bearish arguments, suggesting the final score will be determined as more influential reviews emerge.
5. How does the early critical reception of the 2026 live-action 'Moana' compare to the final Rotten Tomatoes scores of other recent Disney live-action remakes?
| Reported Rotten Tomatoes Score | 27%-36% [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Wide Release Date | July 10, 2026 [^][^][^] |
| Ranking among Disney live-action remakes | Second-worst or one of the five worst [^][^] |
These low scores position 'Moana' among Disney's lowest-rated remakes. Reports suggest the 2026 'Moana' could be the second-worst or one of the five worst live-action remakes in Disney's catalog [^][^]. However, the current research findings do not provide the specific final Rotten Tomatoes scores for other individual Disney live-action remakes, which precludes a direct numerical comparison [^][^].
6. What specific criticisms are driving the initial low Tomatometer score for the live-action 'Moana' based on early reviews?
| Initial Critic Score (Rotten Tomatoes) | 32%–36% [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Primary Criticism 1 | Unnecessary remake [^][^][^][^] |
| Primary Criticism 2 | Lacks 'heart and soul' of original [^][^][^][^] |
The live-action 'Moana' received a low initial Tomatometer score. The 2026 live-action adaptation debuted with an initial critic score ranging from 32% to 36% on Rotten Tomatoes [^][^][^][^]. Critics predominantly found fault with the film for being an 'unnecessary' remake that was 'faithful to a fault' [^][^][^][^].
Critics frequently described the remake as lacking heart and originality. Many reviewers characterized the movie as a 'flat,' 'lifeless,' and 'artificial' rehash of the 2016 original [^][^][^][^]. This perceived absence of the 'heart and soul' from its predecessor led to widespread questioning about the justification for its existence as a live-action project [^][^][^][^].
7. Which upcoming events, such as the official review embargo lift or world premiere, are most likely to cause significant shifts in 'Moana's' Tomatometer score?
| Moana 2 Embargo Lift | November 26, 2024, at 12pm EST [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Moana 2 Tomatometer Score | 70-71% [^][^] |
| Live-action Moana Predicted Score | 58.5% to 66.9% [^][^] |
Moana 2's initial Tomatometer score was largely determined by its review embargo. The official review embargo for Moana 2 lifted on November 26, 2024, at 12pm EST, marking the primary event that established its early critical reception [^][^][^][^][^]. Following this, the film received mixed critical feedback, resulting in a reported Tomatometer score of approximately 70-71% in late 2024 and mid-2026 [^][^].
Upcoming events for the live-action Moana project remain unspecified. Currently, there is no disclosed information regarding events such as an official review embargo lift or world premiere that could significantly impact its Tomatometer score. While prediction markets are actively monitoring this project, its predicted Tomatometer score has shown fluctuations, ranging between 58.5% and 66.9% as of July 2026 [^][^].
8. What is the typical timeframe for a major Disney release to accumulate the majority of its critic reviews on Rotten Tomatoes after its premiere?
| Review Accumulation | Shortly after film's premiere [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Review Stability | By wide release or within 1-2 weeks post-premiere [^][^] |
| Review Aggregation | As soon as published publicly [^][^] |
Major film reviews accumulate rapidly, stabilizing shortly after release. The majority of critic reviews for major film releases on Rotten Tomatoes typically accumulate shortly after a film's premiere. This collection of reviews often becomes stable by the film's wide release date or within the initial one to two weeks following the premiere [^][^].
Review embargo lifts drive rapid influx of critic scores. Rotten Tomatoes aggregates critic reviews as soon as they are published publicly. For major studio films, review embargoes are typically lifted ahead of the wide release date, which causes a rapid influx of reviews during that specific period [^][^].
9. What is the historical relationship between a Disney live-action remake's opening weekend box office and its final Tomatometer score?
| Correlation Box Office/Tomatometer | No consistent linear correlation [^] |
|---|---|
| Moana Tomatometer Score | 32%-36% (as of July 9, 2026) [^][^][^] |
| Snow White Critic Scores | low critic scores [^] |
Disney live-action remakes show no consistent box office-score correlation. There is no consistent linear correlation identifiable between the opening weekend box office performance of a Disney live-action remake and its final Tomatometer score. This pattern is exemplified by titles such as Snow White, which, despite high-profile release expectations, garnered low critic scores. Similarly, other early remakes have displayed diverse box office returns, irrespective of their critical reception [^].
Live-action Moana debuted with a low Tomatometer score. As of July 9, 2026, the Disney live-action remake of Moana premiered with a Tomatometer score ranging between 32% and 36% [^][^][^]. The available research does not contain specific historical data detailing a relationship between the live-action Moana's opening weekend box office performance and its Tomatometer score.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The live-action adaptation of Moana was released in U.S. theaters on July 10, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. This event follows the 2016 animated film Moana, which maintains a 95% critical approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes [^][^]. Prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi, established betting pools to forecast the 2026 live-action Moana's Rotten Tomatoes score [^][^].
These market betting pools featured resolution dates centered around July 13, 2026 [^] [^] . Trading Odds & Predictions 2026 | Polymarket" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^]. Sentiment in these markets demonstrated volatility leading up to the live-action release, with predictions shifting based on trailer reception and early reactions. This placed the film in a category of uncertainty similar to other recent Disney live-action remakes [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: July 20, 2026
- Closes: July 13, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The live-action adaptation of Moana was released in U.S.
- Trigger: Theaters on July 10, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This event follows the 2016 animated film Moana, which maintains a 95% critical approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi, established betting pools to forecast the 2026 live-action Moana's Rotten Tomatoes score [^] [^] .
13. Related News
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 9 resolved YES, 11 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXRT-MIN-92: NO (Jul 06, 2026)
- KXRT-MIN-87: YES (Jul 06, 2026)
- KXRT-MIN-95: NO (Jul 06, 2026)
- KXRT-JAC-87: YES (Jun 29, 2026)
- KXRT-JAC-82: YES (Jun 29, 2026)
