Short Answer

Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Above 20 is most likely, with only minor residual uncertainty.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This contract has traded in an exceptionally narrow and high-conviction range, opening at 97.0% and moving sideways between 95.0% and 99.0%. The current price of 99.0% reflects a market with very little uncertainty about a positive outcome. Total volume is moderate at 2,720 contracts, suggesting consistent participation without major speculative shifts. The price floor has been firmly established at 95.0%, a level that has not been breached, while the price has tested and held the 99.0% ceiling.
The price action is completely detached from the negative early reviews for the 2026 live-action Moana remake (32-33% score) and the mixed reception for the 2024 animated sequel (61% score). Instead, the trading band of 95-99% directly corresponds to the 95% critical score of the original 2016 animated film. This indicates traders are pricing the contract based on the established, stable rating of the first movie. The lack of any price reaction to news about the newer films suggests the market believes those outcomes are irrelevant to the contract's resolution.
Market sentiment, as reflected by the chart, is one of near certainty. The stability of the price at such a high level implies a consensus that the contract pertains to the well-regarded 2016 film. The price action shows no hedging against the poor performance of subsequent franchise entries.
  • "Above 30" is highly probable, with the film's reported score at 36%.
  • Market probabilities reflect conflicting expectations for minor score fluctuations around 36%.
  • Scores above 40% appear highly improbable given the film's 36% score.

Current Context

Critical reception for Moana films has varied significantly across releases. The original 2016 animated film Moana holds a 95% critical approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes [1][2]. The 2024 animated sequel, Moana 2, received a 61% critical approval rating [3].
Early reviews for the 2026 live-action Moana remake are largely negative. It debuted with a critical approval rating of approximately 32-33% on Rotten Tomatoes [4][2]. Critical consensus identifies the remake as unnecessary, lacking the original's distinctiveness, and overly faithful, though Catherine Laga'aia's performance garnered praise [4][2]. Box office projections for the 2026 live-action Moana's North American opening weekend are estimated between $40 million and $65 million [4][2].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Moana (2016 film)en.wikipedia.org
  2. 2Moana’s Live-Action Remake Officially Sets Major Disney Rotten Tomatoes Recordscreenrant.com
  3. 3Moana 2 - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  4. 4Disney’s Latest Live-Action Remake is Getting a ‘Snow White’ Level Reactioncollider.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above 40

📉 July 09, 2026: 15.0pp drop

Price decreased from 26.0% to 11.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 15.0 percentage point drop was the official Rotten Tomatoes score for the live-action "Moana" (2026) being reported at 36% on July 9, 2026 [1]. This score significantly fell below the "Above 40" outcome predicted by the market. Early reports on July 8, 2026, had already indicated a critical disappointment, with scores ranging between 31% and 35% [2][3][4][5][6]. Social media then served as a contributing accelerant, widely citing the film's low critic scores compared to previous installments as a negative catalyst [6].

Outcome: Above 45

📉 July 08, 2026: 77.0pp drop

Price decreased from 83.0% to 6.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 77.0 percentage point drop in the "Moana" Rotten Tomatoes prediction market was the official debut of the film's critic score. On July 8, 2026, the live-action Moana remake debuted on Rotten Tomatoes with a score ranging between 31% and 33% [7][5][3]. This news directly contradicted the "Above 45" outcome of the market, causing its price to plummet as it became clear the outcome was unlikely. Social media was irrelevant as a primary driver based on the provided information.

Outcome: Above 55

📉 June 28, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 59.0% to 50.0%

What happened: Based on the provided information, there is no documented evidence or news reporting of a specific 9.0 percentage point drop in the "Moana" Rotten Tomatoes prediction market on June 28, 2026, nor any recognized social media catalyst for that date [7][6][5]. While the live-action "Moana" remake later received a low Rotten Tomatoes critic score between 31% and 33% (as of July 8-9, 2026), these scores and related news emerged after the specified market movement date [7][3][6][8]. Therefore, the primary driver for the alleged June 28, 2026 price movement cannot be identified from the available data. Social media activity for the specified date appears to be irrelevant due to a lack of evidence.

📈 June 25, 2026: 39.0pp spike

Price increased from 22.0% to 61.0%

What happened: The reported 39.0 percentage point spike in the "Moana" Rotten Tomatoes score prediction market for "Above 55" on June 25, 2026, appears to be an unrelated data point or confusion with other prediction market events [9][10]. As of July 9, 2026, the 2026 live-action Moana remake holds a 35% critic approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes, with critics widely panning the film as one of Disney's lowest-rated live-action remakes [11][2][3][12]. Reports from July 8-9, 2026, consistently indicate that forecasts for the film's Rotten Tomatoes score were sinking, not spiking upwards [9][10]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver for a price movement that likely did not occur in this specific market as described.

Outcome: Above 75

📉 June 26, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 18.0% to 9.0%

What happened: The primary driver for the 9.0 percentage point drop in the "Moana" Rotten Tomatoes market on June 26, 2026, was likely the negative critical reception following the film's early international release. This early reception contributed to a general downward trend in predicted scores throughout June 2026 [13]. The market adjusted expectations downward as the film's Tomatometer score eventually settled between 31% to 36% as of July 9, 2026 [1][7][6]. Based on the provided information, social media activity was irrelevant to this specific price movement.
Sources (13)
  1. 1Moana (2026) | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
  2. 2The 'Moana' Rotten Tomatoes Critic Review Score Is A Disney...forbes.com
  3. 3Moana's Rotten Tomatoes Score Ranks Among The Worst Live...slashfilm.com
  4. 4Live-Action Moana Rotten Tomatoes Score Comes In Lower Than Snow White | The Main Street Mousethemainstreetmouse.com
  5. 5Moana’s Live-Action Remake Officially Sets Major Disney Rotten Tomatoes Recordscreenrant.com
  6. 6Moana Reviews: Rotten Tomatoes Score Is Franchise's Lowest Ever - Cosmic Book Newscosmicbook.news
  7. 7Moana Scores 2nd-Worst Rotten Tomatoes Score for Disney Live-Action Remakescomingsoon.net
  8. 8Disney’s Latest Live-Action Remake is Getting a ‘Snow White’ Level Reactioncollider.com
  9. 9Live-action Moana’s Rotten Tomatoes forecast is sinking fast | CineCorner UKcinecorner.co.uk
  10. 10Live-Action Moana Rotten Tomatoes Prediction Is in Deep Water | United Statesus.headtopics.com
  11. 11Moana (2026 film) - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  12. 12Moana faces a rough tide before it even opensrollingout.com
  13. 13Live-Action Moana Rotten Tomatoes Prediction Is in Deep Water - AOLaol.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if "Moana" has a Tomatometer score strictly above 35, as verified from Rotten Tomatoes on July 13, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. If the score is 35 or less, the market resolves NO. The market closes at the time of score verification, with payouts projected shortly after.

Market Discussion

The market discussion for "Moana"'s Rotten Tomatoes score shows a strong sentiment towards a lower score, particularly below 45%, though the "Above 35" market is currently split at 49% Yes. Key arguments for a lower score include an increasingly harsh critical environment for such films and a low critic turnout (67 reviews) so far, with expectations that major press reviews will be harsher. While some believe the score will still settle slightly above 35%, a prominent trader ("jets") is influencing opinion with detailed bearish arguments, suggesting the final score will be determined as more influential reviews emerge.

5. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Jul 9, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Trust profile
Event quality42
Weak
Liquidity
26

19 contracts · worst first

Above 751
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 801
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 851
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 901
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 652
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 702
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 553
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 603
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 374
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 454
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 504
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 405
Very thin · high confidence

Typical bar range 22.9% of price over 20 traded bars

Above 3515
Very thin · high confidence

Typical bar range 17.8% of price over 20 traded bars

Above 2223
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 2539
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 3256
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 2062
Tradeable · medium confidence

Typical bar range 1.8% of price over 4 traded bars

Above 3062
Tradeable · high confidence

Typical bar range 1.9% of price over 16 traded bars

Above 2766
Tradeable · high confidence

Typical bar range 2.6% of price over 11 traded bars

Move quality
—

No reading right now

19 contracts · worst first

Above 2747
Mixed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move

Above 2568
Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move

Above 2073
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move

Above 3581
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move

Above 4587
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move

Above 22—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 0

Above 30—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.13 log-odds, 1.0c, vol 612

Above 32—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.19 log-odds, 3.0c, vol 50

Above 37—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.04 log-odds, 1.0c, vol 63

Above 40—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 2,179

Above 50—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 4,729

Above 55—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 3,737

Above 60—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 2,584

Above 65—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 48

Above 70—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 329

Above 75—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 2,947

Above 80—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 545

Above 85—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 333

Above 90—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 811

Rule clarity
—Clear

Rules read clean and objective

19 contracts · worst first

Above 20100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 22100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 25100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 27100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 30100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 32100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 35100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 37100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 40100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 45100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 50100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 55100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 60100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 65100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 70100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 75100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 80100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 85100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 90100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Jul 9, 2026

6. How does the early critical reception of the 2026 live-action 'Moana' compare to the final Rotten Tomatoes scores of other recent Disney live-action remakes?

Reported Rotten Tomatoes Score27%-36% [1][2][3]
Wide Release DateJuly 10, 2026 [1][2][3]
Ranking among Disney live-action remakesSecond-worst or one of the five worst [1][3]
Early reception for the 2026 live-action 'Moana' suggests low Rotten Tomatoes scores. The film's early critical reviews indicate projected Tomatometer scores ranging between 27% and 36% [1][2][3]. 'Moana' is scheduled for its wide theatrical release on July 10, 2026 [1][2][3].
These low scores position 'Moana' among Disney's lowest-rated remakes. Reports suggest the 2026 'Moana' could be the second-worst or one of the five worst live-action remakes in Disney's catalog [1][3]. However, the current research findings do not provide the specific final Rotten Tomatoes scores for other individual Disney live-action remakes, which precludes a direct numerical comparison [1][3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Moana Scores 2nd-Worst Rotten Tomatoes Score for Disney Live...aol.com
  2. 25 Reasons Why The Moana Remake Reviews Are So Negativescreenrant.com
  3. 35 Worst Disney Live-Action Remakes, Including 2026's Moana - Yahooyahoo.com

7. What specific criticisms are driving the initial low Tomatometer score for the live-action 'Moana' based on early reviews?

Initial Critic Score (Rotten Tomatoes)32%–36% [1][2][3][4]
Primary Criticism 1Unnecessary remake [5][6][7][8]
Primary Criticism 2Lacks 'heart and soul' of original [5][6][7][8]
The live-action 'Moana' received a low initial Tomatometer score. The 2026 live-action adaptation debuted with an initial critic score ranging from 32% to 36% on Rotten Tomatoes [1][2][3][4]. Critics predominantly found fault with the film for being an 'unnecessary' remake that was 'faithful to a fault' [5][6][7][8].
Critics frequently described the remake as lacking heart and originality. Many reviewers characterized the movie as a 'flat,' 'lifeless,' and 'artificial' rehash of the 2016 original [5][6][7][8]. This perceived absence of the 'heart and soul' from its predecessor led to widespread questioning about the justification for its existence as a live-action project [5][6][7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1The 'Moana' Rotten Tomatoes Critic Review Score Is A Disney...forbes.com
  2. 2Moana's Rotten Tomatoes Score Ranks Among The Worst Live...slashfilm.com
  3. 3Moana Scores 2nd-Worst Rotten Tomatoes Score for Disney Live...aol.com
  4. 4The 'MOANA' live-action remake debuts with a 32% score on Rotten...reddit.com
  5. 5Moana First Reviews: Unnecessary and Faithful to a Fault, but It Has...editorial.rottentomatoes.com
  6. 6'Moana' Review: Disney Wants You to Pay for the Same Film Againthewrap.com
  7. 7Moana Review: This Flat, Lifeless, Artificial Rehash Is Unwelcomeslashfilm.com
  8. 8'Moana' Review - A Heartless Remake of a Disney Classicdiscussingfilm.net

8. Which upcoming events, such as the official review embargo lift or world premiere, are most likely to cause significant shifts in 'Moana's' Tomatometer score?

Moana 2 Embargo LiftNovember 26, 2024, at 12pm EST [1][2][3][4][5]
Moana 2 Tomatometer Score70-71% [6][7]
Live-action Moana Predicted Score58.5% to 66.9% [8][9]
Moana 2's initial Tomatometer score was largely determined by its review embargo. The official review embargo for Moana 2 lifted on November 26, 2024, at 12pm EST, marking the primary event that established its early critical reception [1][2][3][4][5]. Following this, the film received mixed critical feedback, resulting in a reported Tomatometer score of approximately 70-71% in late 2024 and mid-2026 [6][7].
Upcoming events for the live-action Moana project remain unspecified. Currently, there is no disclosed information regarding events such as an official review embargo lift or world premiere that could significantly impact its Tomatometer score. While prediction markets are actively monitoring this project, its predicted Tomatometer score has shown fluctuations, ranging between 58.5% and 66.9% as of July 2026 [8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Moana 2: • Review embargo November 26 at 12pm ESTx.com
  2. 2'Moana 2' Reviews Are Shaking Disney's Confidence in Sequel - IMDbimdb.com
  3. 3'Moana 2' Reviews Are Shaking Disney's Confidence in Sequelmovieweb.com
  4. 4MOANA 2 Reviews Promise Disney Fans An "Okay" Sequel As...comicbookmovie.com
  5. 5Moana 2 First Reviews: A See-Worthy Adventure, if Not as Epiceditorial.rottentomatoes.com
  6. 6Moana sailed out... and the critics sent her straight back to the reef...facebook.com
  7. 7Moana 2 is hitting some choppy waters. The TV Show-turned-movie...instagram.com
  8. 8Live-Action Moana Rotten Tomatoes Prediction Is in Deep Wateryahoo.com
  9. 9"Moana" Rotten Tomatoes score? | Prediction Markets - Coinbasecoinbase.com

9. What is the typical timeframe for a major Disney release to accumulate the majority of its critic reviews on Rotten Tomatoes after its premiere?

Review AccumulationShortly after film's premiere [1][2]
Review StabilityBy wide release or within 1-2 weeks post-premiere [1][2]
Review AggregationAs soon as published publicly [3][1]
Major film reviews accumulate rapidly, stabilizing shortly after release. The majority of critic reviews for major film releases on Rotten Tomatoes typically accumulate shortly after a film's premiere. This collection of reviews often becomes stable by the film's wide release date or within the initial one to two weeks following the premiere [1][2].
Review embargo lifts drive rapid influx of critic scores. Rotten Tomatoes aggregates critic reviews as soon as they are published publicly. For major studio films, review embargoes are typically lifted ahead of the wide release date, which causes a rapid influx of reviews during that specific period [3][1].
Sources (3)
  1. 1How does Rotten Tomatoes decide when to publish reviews... - Quoraquora.com
  2. 2Does anyone have an idea of when the critic rotten tomato score will...facebook.com
  3. 3How does Rotten Tomatoes work and how can one become a top...quora.com

10. What is the historical relationship between a Disney live-action remake's opening weekend box office and its final Tomatometer score?

Correlation Box Office/TomatometerNo consistent linear correlation [1]
Moana Tomatometer Score32%-36% (as of July 9, 2026) [2][3][4]
Snow White Critic Scoreslow critic scores [1]
Disney live-action remakes show no consistent box office-score correlation. There is no consistent linear correlation identifiable between the opening weekend box office performance of a Disney live-action remake and its final Tomatometer score. This pattern is exemplified by titles such as Snow White, which, despite high-profile release expectations, garnered low critic scores. Similarly, other early remakes have displayed diverse box office returns, irrespective of their critical reception [1].
Live-action Moana debuted with a low Tomatometer score. As of July 9, 2026, the Disney live-action remake of Moana premiered with a Tomatometer score ranging between 32% and 36% [2][3][4]. The available research does not contain specific historical data detailing a relationship between the live-action Moana's opening weekend box office performance and its Tomatometer score.
Sources (4)
  1. 1How does the 98% score of the live-action remake of 'How To Train...quora.com
  2. 2New Moana Movie Somehow Has Even Worse Review Scores Than...thegamer.com
  3. 3The live-action Moana has debuted with a 32% critics score on...instagram.com
  4. 4Disney's Latest Live-Action Remake is Getting a 'Snow White' Level...collider.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The live-action adaptation of Moana was released in U.S. theaters on July 10, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. This event follows the 2016 animated film Moana, which maintains a 95% critical approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes [5][6]. Prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi, established betting pools to forecast the 2026 live-action Moana's Rotten Tomatoes score [1][7].
These market betting pools featured resolution dates centered around July 13, 2026 [1][7]. Sentiment in these markets demonstrated volatility leading up to the live-action release, with predictions shifting based on trailer reception and early reactions. This placed the film in a category of uncertainty similar to other recent Disney live-action remakes [1].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: July 20, 2026
  • Closes: July 13, 2026
Sources (7)
  1. 1Live-Action Moana Rotten Tomatoes Prediction Is in Deep Watercomingsoon.net
  2. 2Moana | Disney Moviesmovies.disney.com
  3. 3Moana (2026) - IMDbimdb.com
  4. 4Moana (2026 film) - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  5. 5Moana (2016) - Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
  6. 6Moana (2016 film)en.m.wikipedia.org
  7. 7“Moana” Rotten Tomatoes Score? Trading Odds & Predictions 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.copilot.markets

13. Related News

-77.0pp
Last updated: July 9, 2026, 14:41 UTC

Live-Action 'Moana' Debuts to 36% Score, Sinking Prediction Market Odds

The release of early critical reviews for Disney's live-action Moana remake, establishing an initial Tomatometer score of 36%, triggered a sharp repricing in prediction markets for the film's final ra...

14. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 9 resolved YES, 11 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXRT-MIN-92: NO (Jul 06, 2026)
  • KXRT-MIN-87: YES (Jul 06, 2026)
  • KXRT-MIN-95: NO (Jul 06, 2026)
  • KXRT-JAC-87: YES (Jun 29, 2026)
  • KXRT-JAC-82: YES (Jun 29, 2026)