Supergirl: Rotten Tomatoes score
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Supergirl's Rotten Tomatoes score to be Above 30, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Since last update (~24h): Our model's view on Above 60 flipped the market edge, leading a -11.4pp shift.
- Model-led conviction for Above 57 widened the edge with a +10.6pp increase.
- Market-led movement compressed the edge for Above 55, with the model moving +22.9pp.
- Above 35 market probability rose +6.0pp, reaching parity with the model.
- Rotten Tomatoes score is currently reported between 58% and 59%.
- The score is highly likely to resolve above 55% and 57%.
- The score is unlikely to rise significantly above 60% in three days.
- Milly Alcock's performance received significant critical acclaim.
- Film critics largely agree the movie disappoints as a comic adaptation.
- Score volatility stemmed from a surge of critic reviews since June 26.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 70 | 1.0% | 0.9% | The film's score is currently reported between 58% and 59%, well below 70%. |
| Above 65 | 1.0% | 0.9% | The film's score is currently reported between 58% and 59%, well below 65%. |
| Above 75 | 1.0% | 0.9% | The film's score is currently reported between 58% and 59%, well below 75%. |
| Above 60 | 12.0% | 8.6% | The film's score is currently reported between 58% and 59%, placing it below 60%. |
| Above 80 | 1.0% | 0.9% | The film's score is currently reported between 58% and 59%, well below 80%. |
Current Context
Critics found the film uneven, despite praise for its lead. The critical consensus describes Supergirl as an entertaining but uneven entry in the DCU [^][^][^][^]. Milly Alcock's performance received wide praise [^][^][^][^]. However, the film has faced criticism for its pacing, screenplay, and perceived inferiority to the source material [^][^][^][^].
The Supergirl character is set for further DCU integration. Milly Alcock's Supergirl is confirmed to appear in the next DCU film, Man of Tomorrow [^][^][^][^]. DC executives have also teased that she will play a significant role in a subsequent project, with speculation linking the character to a Wonder Woman project [^][^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market has traded in a stable, sideways pattern near its ceiling for most of its duration, with one period of extreme volatility. The price opened at 98.0% and currently sits at 99.0%, reflecting a consistent expectation that the "Supergirl" Rotten Tomatoes score will finish above 30. This stability was broken by a sharp 66.0 percentage point drop on June 21 to a low of 28.0%, which was then fully reversed by a 71.0 percentage point spike back to 99.0% on June 22. The provided context suggests this volatility was driven by initial mixed critic reviews for the film. The market's quick recovery indicates traders rapidly concluded that even middling reviews would not threaten the low 30% resolution threshold.
Total volume of 16,962 contracts suggests moderate liquidity, likely concentrated during the June 21-22 price swing. The low volume at the 98.0-99.0% levels indicates a strong market consensus with little incentive to trade. The chart establishes a clear support level at 28.0%, the bottom of the brief sell-off, and a functional resistance or consensus ceiling around 99.0%. Overall, market sentiment is overwhelmingly confident in a "Yes" resolution. The price action implies the market has fully digested the film's 58-59% score, viewing it as well clear of the contract's benchmark and leaving little room for further price discovery.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 57
📉 June 26, 2026: 22.0pp drop
Price decreased from 63.0% to 41.0%
What happened: The provided research indicates no evidence of a 22.0 percentage point drop in the Rotten Tomatoes score for "Supergirl (2026)" or a corresponding prediction market movement of that magnitude around June 26, 2026 [^]. Instead, the film's Tomatometer score fluctuated by several percentage points, typically between 56% and 61%, settling at 58% on June 26, 2026 [^]. There is no mention of any specific social media posts from key figures or viral narratives that would explain such a significant decline in the market price [^]. Given the absence of evidence for the stated drop, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver.
Outcome: Above 55
📈 June 25, 2026: 56.0pp spike
Price increased from 27.0% to 83.0%
What happened: The 56.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market price for "Supergirl: Rotten Tomatoes score - Above 55" on June 25, 2026, was primarily driven by the aggregation of initial critic reviews becoming public [^][^]. Around June 24-25, 2026, following the lifting of social media and critic embargoes, the film's Rotten Tomatoes score began hovering near 56%-57% [^][^], confirming the "Above 55" outcome (as of June 26, 2026, it settled at 58% based on 197 reviews [^][^]). While social media discussed the score and influenced market fluctuations, there is no specific evidence of a social media post or viral narrative directly causing this sharp price increase; rather, it appears to be a direct market reaction to the actual review scores becoming available [^][^]. Social media was a contributing accelerant, amplifying the information, but the release of critic reviews was the primary driver.
Outcome: Above 60
📉 June 24, 2026: 53.0pp drop
Price decreased from 61.0% to 8.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 53.0 percentage point drop was the official revelation of "Supergirl's" Rotten Tomatoes score upon the lifting of its review embargo. On June 24, 2026, the film's score was revealed to be in the high 50s (e.g., 56-59%), classifying it as "Rotten" and falling below the "Above 60" threshold [^]. This direct confirmation of a "Rotten" rating, contrary to prior expectations of a "Fresh" score, immediately invalidated the "Above 60" outcome, causing the price movement to coincide precisely with the score's public release [^]. Based on the provided information, social media activity was irrelevant.
Outcome: Above 65
📉 June 23, 2026: 20.0pp drop
Price decreased from 63.0% to 43.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 20.0 percentage point drop in the "Supergirl: Rotten Tomatoes score" market was the widespread release of initial critical reviews following the lifting of the social media embargo on June 18 [^]. These reviews, which were largely mixed—praising Milly Alcock but faulting pacing and script—caused prediction markets like Kalshi to drop their forecast for the film's Rotten Tomatoes score to around 62% by June 23 [^]. Social media activity, characterized by discussions regarding the mixed reception, appears to have coincided with and amplified the impact of these traditional critical assessments rather than being the original cause of the downward movement [^]. Social media was a contributing accelerant, spreading the sentiment from the critical reviews.
Outcome: Above 30
📈 June 22, 2026: 71.0pp spike
Price increased from 28.0% to 99.0%
What happened: The provided research does not support a 71.0 percentage point spike for the "Above 30" outcome on June 22, 2026. Instead, it indicates that Supergirl's overall Rotten Tomatoes prediction experienced a notable decline on that date [^]. This drop in sentiment was primarily driven by initial mixed critical feedback from early screenings and the lifting of social media embargoes [^]. Prior to June 22, 2026, the film had maintained higher score predictions, reaching 70-89% before tumbling [^][^][^]. Social media activity, specifically the lifting of embargoes, was a primary driver for the documented decline in overall prediction market sentiment, which is contrary to a spike for "Above 30".
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to YES if "Supergirl" achieves a Tomatometer score strictly above 57%, and to NO if the score is 57% or lower. This outcome is verified from Rotten Tomatoes on June 22, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. A score exactly matching the strike value will result in a NO resolution, with the projected payout date being June 29, 2026, at 10:59 AM EDT.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 30 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 35 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 40 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 45 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 50 | $0.99 | $0.02 | 97% |
| Above 52 | $0.97 | $0.04 | 97% |
| Above 55 | $0.83 | $0.19 | 84% |
| Above 57 | $0.49 | $0.61 | 40% |
| Above 60 | $0.13 | $0.90 | 12% |
| Above 65 | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Above 70 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 75 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 80 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 85 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 90 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 95 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Traders are debating the impact of Rotten Tomatoes' aggregation method, particularly whether "barely fresh" reviews (e.g., 5/10) are artificially inflating the Tomatometer score for Supergirl. Some argue that these lower-end "fresh" ratings, possibly boosted by strong individual performances, could push the score higher, while others express skepticism about the validity of such ratings and anticipate a lower score due to forthcoming negative reviews. There is no clear consensus, but the market currently indicates a low probability of the score surpassing 57%.
5. How does Supergirl's initial critical reception compare to other films in the DCU's 'Chapter One: Gods and Monsters' slate?
| Supergirl Tomatometer Score | 57-61% (as of June 26, 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Superman (2025) Score Compared to Supergirl | Approximately 26-30% higher [^] |
| Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow DCU Release Order | Second feature film in Chapter One [^][^] |
Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow received mixed early critical reception. As of June 26, 2026, the film garnered a mixed critical reception, with its Tomatometer score on Rotten Tomatoes falling between 57% and 61% [^][^][^][^]. This film marks the second feature-length release in the DCU's 'Chapter One: Gods and Monsters' slate, succeeding Superman (2025) [^][^].
Supergirl's critical reception lags significantly behind Superman's debut. This initial critical performance for Supergirl is considerably lower when compared to the DCU's inaugural 'Chapter One' release, Superman (2025) [^]. Reports indicate that Superman (2025) achieved a Tomatometer score approximately 26% to 30% higher than Supergirl's early reception [^]. No critical reception information was available for other forthcoming films within the DCU's 'Chapter One' slate.
6. What are the primary drivers behind the day-to-day volatility in Supergirl's Tomatometer score since its release on June 26?
| Tomatometer Score Range (late June 2026) | 57%-61% [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Early June Prediction Market Expectation | 76% [^][^] |
| Near Release Prediction Market Expectation | 62% [^][^] |
Supergirl's Tomatometer score volatility stemmed from a surge of critic reviews. Since its release on June 26, the day-to-day fluctuations in the score have been primarily driven by a significant influx of critic reviews [^][^][^][^]. This surge began following the lifting of the social media embargo on June 18, 2026, and the film's world premiere in Brooklyn on June 22, 2026 [^][^][^][^].
Mixed critical reception directly contributed to score fluctuations. While reviewers generally praised Milly Alcock's performance, opinions diverged on the film's 'gritty' and 'unconventional' tone [^][^][^]. This varied feedback resulted in the Tomatometer score fluctuating between 57% and 61% as of late June 2026 [^][^][^].
Prediction markets mirrored the declining Tomatometer score expectations. Kalshi, a prediction market, also reflected significant volatility in anticipated final scores [^][^]. The forecasted Rotten Tomatoes score decreased from approximately 76% in early June to around 62% closer to the theatrical release date of June 26, 2026 [^][^].
7. What is the critical consensus on Milly Alcock's performance versus the film's screenplay and direction?
| Lead Actress Performance | Strong, magnetic (Milly Alcock) [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Screenplay Criticism | Generic, uneven, lack of thematic depth [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Rotten Tomatoes Score | Approximately 56% (as of June 26, 2026) [^][^] |
The film's screenplay and direction faced widespread critical disapproval. Conversely, Supergirl encountered widespread criticism for its generic and uneven screenplay, along with a noted lack of thematic depth when compared to its source material [^][^][^][^][^]. As of June 26, 2026, the film maintains an approximate Rotten Tomatoes score of 56% [^][^]. This score indicates a mixed-to-negative critical reception, which is largely attributed to dissatisfaction with the story and direction, despite the significant acclaim received by the lead actress [^][^].
8. How does Supergirl's critic-based Tomatometer score compare with its verified Audience Score on Rotten Tomatoes?
| 2026 Film Critic Score | 58% [^][^] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Film Audience Score | 77% [^][^] |
| TV Series Critic Score (2015-2021) | 88% [^] |
The upcoming 2026 Supergirl film exhibits a more positive audience reception. As of June 26, 2026, the film has an critic-based Tomatometer score of 58% and a higher verified Audience Score of 77% [^][^]. This indicates that the audience's reception of the film is more positive than that of critics at this point [^][^].
Past Supergirl adaptations show varied patterns in critic and audience reception. The television series Supergirl, which ran from 2015 to 2021, achieved an average critic-based Tomatometer score of 88% but an average audience-based Popcornmeter score of 47% [^]. In contrast, the 1984 film Supergirl received lower scores from both groups, with a 19% Tomatometer score and a 26% audience-based Popcornmeter score [^].
9. How have film critics addressed the adaptation of the comic 'Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow' in their reviews of the movie?
| Adaptation fidelity | Fails to capture comic's distinct cosmic imagery, emotional depth, or tonal balance [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Film tone | Described as tonally uneven, blandly safe, or dispiritingly dark and utilitarian [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Lead actress performance | Milly Alcock's performance as Kara Zor-El is universally praised [^][^][^][^][^] |
Film critics largely agree the Supergirl movie disappoints as an adaptation. Reviewers have widely noted that the 2026 film frequently fails to effectively adapt the comic miniseries Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow. They consistently point out that the movie does not capture the comic's distinct cosmic imagery, emotional depth, or its intended balance of tones [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This has resulted in a film described by critics as tonally uneven, "blandly safe," or "dispiritingly" dark and utilitarian [^][^][^][^][^][^].
The film struggles with replicating a desired stylistic approach and tone. Critics highlight that the movie attempts to replicate the "Gunn house style" but often falls short [^][^][^]. Some suggest the adaptation prioritizes derivative, darker narrative elements, which are perceived to clash with the story's intended light-hearted or witty beats [^][^][^]. This contributes to criticisms regarding the adaptation's overall execution, tone, and visual style [^][^][^].
Despite criticisms, Milly Alcock's performance as Supergirl garnered widespread acclaim. Amidst the significant criticisms of the adaptation's execution and overall tonal and visual style, Milly Alcock's lead performance as Kara Zor-El is almost universally praised by critics [^][^][^][^][^]. She is frequently cited as the "only good thing" or the "delightful" centerpiece in an otherwise flawed film [^][^][^][^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The film Supergirl, directed by Craig Gillespie and starring Milly Alcock, was released in the United States on June 26, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . Post-release reception for the film has been reported as mixed, with critics praising Milly Alcock's performance but criticizing aspects of the story and characters [^].
Prediction markets, including Polymarket, Kalshi, Robinhood, and Coinbase, have set June 29, 2026, as the resolution date for Rotten Tomatoes score contracts [^] [^] [^] [^] . - Polymarket" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^][^][^]. These markets often focus on thresholds such as 50%, 55%, 57%, and 60% [^][^][^][^]. Market sentiment leading up to the June 29 resolution has been highly sensitive to critical reception, with volatility observed as the film exited its embargo period [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: June 29, 2026
- Closes: June 29, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The film Supergirl, directed by Craig Gillespie and starring Milly Alcock, was released in the United States on June 26, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Post-release reception for the film has been reported as mixed, with critics praising Milly Alcock's performance but criticizing aspects of the story and characters [^] .
- Trigger: Prediction markets, including Polymarket, Kalshi, Robinhood, and Coinbase, have set June 29, 2026, as the resolution date for Rotten Tomatoes score contracts [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: These markets often focus on thresholds such as 50%, 55%, 57%, and 60% [^] [^] [^] [^] .
13. Related News
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 9 resolved YES, 11 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXRT-TOY-94: NO (Jun 22, 2026)
- KXRT-TOY-93: YES (Jun 22, 2026)
- KXRT-TOY-91: YES (Jun 22, 2026)
- KXRT-DEA-68: YES (Jun 22, 2026)
- KXRT-DEA-72: NO (Jun 22, 2026)
