The Odyssey: Rotten Tomatoes score
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect The Odyssey's Rotten Tomatoes score to finish Above 45. They show high consensus on this outcome.
1. Executive Verdict
- Outcomes above 65% are highly likely given the film's 96-98% Rotten Tomatoes score.
- Finishing above 95% appears highly probable, supported by the film's current 96-98% score.
- Despite typical post-release declines, the 96-98% current score is a strong foundation.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 97 | 1.0% | 12.9% | The film's Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 96-98%. |
| Above 90 | 98.0% | 98.2% | The film currently holds an exceptionally high 96-98% Rotten Tomatoes score as of July 16, 2026. |
| Above 70 | 99.0% | 99.1% | The film currently holds an exceptionally high 96-98% Rotten Tomatoes score as of July 16, 2026. |
| Above 80 | 99.0% | 99.1% | The film currently holds an exceptionally high 96-98% Rotten Tomatoes score as of July 16, 2026. |
| Above 95 | 41.0% | 46.6% | The film's current Rotten Tomatoes score is 96-98%, with potential for a slight decline. |
Current Context
Conflicting reports exist regarding The Odyssey's Rotten Tomatoes score availability. Some sources indicate that as of July 16, 2026, Christopher Nolan's film "The Odyssey" holds a 98% Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, based on over 100 reviews [^][^]. This 98% score would mark a new career high for Nolan, surpassing his previous top scores of 94% for "The Dark Knight" and "Memento" [^][^][^]. Other reports, however, state no Rotten Tomatoes score is available, attributing this to the film's theatrical release date of July 17, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. The film is identified as a highly anticipated action feature for the third quarter of 2026 [^].
Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" is set for wide theatrical release on July 17, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . The film is reportedly the first full-length feature shot entirely using new IMAX film technology [^][^][^][^]. Its cast includes Matt Damon as Odysseus, supported by Anne Hathaway, Robert Pattinson, Tom Holland, Eliot Page, Lupita Nyong’o, Charlize Theron, and Zendaya [^][^][^]. Production wrapped in August 2025, ahead of its original schedule, with filming locations in Sicily, Morocco, and the UK [^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market has traded in an extremely narrow band between 98.0% and 99.0% since its inception. The contract opened at 98.0% and moved to 99.0% by July 11 on minimal volume. The price has held at this 99.0% level since. The 98.0% price point acted as initial support, which was quickly overcome. The market is now defined by the 99.0% ceiling, where the majority of trading activity has occurred.
The primary catalyst for market activity was the release of critic reviews. On July 16, multiple outlets reported Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" had secured a 98% score on Rotten Tomatoes. This news coincided with a significant spike in trading volume, with 93.51 contracts traded on that day. While the price had already moved to 99.0% prior to this date, the surge in volume suggests the public score confirmation solidified trader conviction at the high end of the range.
Market sentiment has been consistently and overwhelmingly positive. The opening price of 98.0% already indicated high expectations for a critically acclaimed film. The subsequent move to 99.0% and the high-volume trading following the score's public release signal a strong consensus that the film's rating will meet this high-water mark. The chart reflects a market that is not speculating on a wide range of outcomes but is instead pricing in a near-certainty based on available critic data.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 94
📉 July 16, 2026: 13.0pp drop
Price decreased from 78.0% to 65.0%
What happened: Based on the provided research, there is no evidence to support a 13.0 percentage point drop in "The Odyssey: Rotten Tomatoes score" for the "Above 94" outcome on July 16, 2026. Reports from that date indicate the film's Rotten Tomatoes score remained consistently high, between 96% and 98% [^][^][^][^]. A minor adjustment from a near-perfect debut score to 98% was noted due to a few negative reviews, but this does not constitute a 13-point decline [^]. Consequently, without evidence that the stated price movement actually occurred, a primary driver cannot be identified from the given information. Social media was irrelevant in this context.
📈 July 15, 2026: 49.0pp spike
Price increased from 39.0% to 88.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price spike was the official debut of Christopher Nolan's film "The Odyssey" with a 98% critical approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes on July 15, 2026 [^][^][^]. This confirmed score significantly exceeded the "Above 94" outcome, directly causing the market to adjust [^][^][^]. While the record-breaking score generated significant social media discourse, this activity coincided with and reacted to the news, rather than preceding or primarily driving the initial market movement [^]. Therefore, traditional news of the official Rotten Tomatoes score was the primary driver.
📉 July 14, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 46.0% to 37.0%
What happened: The provided research indicates no evidence of a 9.0 percentage point drop in "The Odyssey's" Rotten Tomatoes score on July 14, 2026 [^][^][^]. The film is scheduled for release on July 17, 2026, meaning a Rotten Tomatoes score would not typically be available on July 14 [^][^][^]. While "The Odyssey" later debuted on Rotten Tomatoes with a 98% critics' score as of July 15, 2026, which is above 94% [^][^][^], any noted movement was a slight drop from 100% to 98%, not a 9.0 percentage point decrease from a benchmark of "Above 94" [^]. Therefore, a primary driver for the stated price movement cannot be identified.
Outcome: Above 92
📈 July 13, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 45.0% to 54.0%
What happened: The market spike on July 13, 2026, was primarily driven by the overwhelmingly positive critical reception emerging from early screenings of Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" [^][^][^][^][^]. This positive sentiment circulated prior to the official review embargo lifting on July 15, 2026, when the film's 98% Tomatometer score was publicly confirmed [^][^][^][^][^][^]. While social media likely contributed to the dissemination of this pre-embargo buzz, the provided research does not identify specific posts, figures, or viral narratives on social media as the direct primary driver. Therefore, social media was not explicitly identified as a primary driver, with the impending critical consensus being the main factor.
Outcome: Above 95
📈 July 10, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 16.0% to 26.0%
What happened: The primary driver of a 10.0 percentage point price spike on July 10, 2026, cannot be identified from the provided information, as there is no credible reporting of such a market movement specifically on that date [^]. Christopher Nolan's film "The Odyssey" [^] later debuted with a 98% Rotten Tomatoes score, marking it as his highest-rated film [^]. However, these positive reviews and the official score were widely publicized following an embargo lift on July 15, 2026 [^]. Given this timing, social media activity or traditional news related to the film's high score could not have caused a price spike five days earlier on July 10. Social media is irrelevant as a primary driver for the specified movement on July 10, 2026, due to the lack of evidence for the event itself at that time.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The "Above 95" market resolves YES if "The Odyssey" achieves a Tomatometer score strictly above 95% (i.e., 96% or higher) on Rotten Tomatoes by the resolution time; it resolves NO if the score is 95% or lower. The market opened on July 6, 2026, 7:00 PM EDT, closes, and resolves on July 20, 2026, 10:00 AM ET, with a projected payout by 10:59 AM EDT on the same day. The outcome is verified from rottentomatoes.com/m/the_odyssey_2026, and the "Fresh!" and "Certified Fresh!" subtitles are illustrative, not affecting the numerical score-based resolution.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 45 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 50 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 55 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 60 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 65 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 70 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 75 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 80 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 85 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 87 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 90 | $0.99 | $0.02 | 98% |
| Above 91 | $0.97 | $0.04 | 95% |
| Above 92 | $0.91 | $0.10 | 90% |
| Above 93 | $0.85 | $0.17 | 84% |
| Above 94 | $0.67 | $0.35 | 65% |
| Above 95 | $0.43 | $0.59 | 41% |
| Above 96 | $0.13 | $0.91 | 10% |
| Above 97 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 98 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Traders are actively discussing "The Odyssey"'s Rotten Tomatoes score, with the market currently forecasting 94.6% and a 65% chance of the score being "Above 94". While some traders are bullish, betting on scores above 96% or 97%, confidence in these higher thresholds is significantly lower (10% for Above 96%). Arguments for a lower score include one user claiming to have seen the movie and rating it a mediocre 6.5-7.0, although this view is largely dismissed by others who suggest a score below 93% is unlikely, and one user suggests critics might inflate the score due to "culture war" influences.
5. How does 'The Odyssey's' initial 98% Tomatometer score compare to the final critic scores for Christopher Nolan's other acclaimed films like 'The Dark Knight' and 'Oppenheimer'?
| The Odyssey Critic Score | 98% (as of July 16, 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| The Dark Knight Critic Score | 94% [^][^][^] |
| Oppenheimer Critic Score | 93% [^][^] |
'The Odyssey's' critic score notably surpasses Nolan's other acclaimed works. In comparison to other prominent films by Christopher Nolan, 'The Dark Knight' maintains a stable long-term critical score of 94% on Rotten Tomatoes [^][^][^]. Similarly, 'Oppenheimer' holds a 93% critic score on the same platform [^][^], positioning 'The Odyssey' with a significantly higher rating.
6. What is the historical trend for major blockbuster scores on Rotten Tomatoes after the initial wave of 'first look' reviews versus the full set of post-release critiques?
| Tomatometer Score Trend | Often declines post-release as review sample grows [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Reason for Score Decline | Late-posting critics offer more nuanced or critical perspectives [^][^][^] |
| Market Prediction Use | Critical scores tracked and resolved by specific dates (e.g., July 20, 2026) in prediction markets [^][^][^][^] |
Blockbuster films' Rotten Tomatoes scores typically decline post-release. High-profile blockbuster films frequently experience a decrease in their Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score as the pool of reviews expands from initial "first look" critiques to a wider array of professional opinions after release [^][^][^]. This historical pattern shows scores consistently dropping as the full set of post-release critiques becomes available beyond the initial wave [^][^][^].
Later critics provide more nuanced, lukewarm, or critical viewpoints. The common explanation for this decline is the contribution of critics who post their reviews later, often offering more nuanced, lukewarm, or directly critical perspectives compared to those in the initial batch of reviews [^][^][^]. This expansion of the review sample, therefore, typically results in a lower overall Tomatometer score as these later critiques are incorporated [^][^][^].
Critical scores significantly influence film prediction markets. The importance of these critical assessments is highlighted by prediction markets for films, such as The Odyssey (2026) [^][^][^][^]. These markets monitor critical scores and set strike thresholds to determine the final "All Critics" Tomatometer score by a specified date, for example, July 20, 2026 [^][^][^][^].
7. What specific themes of praise and criticism appear in the initial critic reviews that established 'The Odyssey's' 98% Rotten Tomatoes score?
| Rotten Tomatoes Score | 98% [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Runtime | Nearly three-hour [^][^] |
| Filming Method | Shot entirely on IMAX [^][^] |
Critics lauded 'The Odyssey' for its ambitious visual and thematic scope. Initial reviews highlighted the film's impressive visual grandeur, technical ambition, and the emotional performances delivered by its ensemble cast, led by Matt Damon [^][^]. Shot entirely on IMAX, the movie also received significant praise for its thematic depth, with some critics describing it as an "anti-war" epic and a spiritual successor to Oppenheimer [^][^]. These elements contributed to its 98% Rotten Tomatoes critic score, which positions it as Christopher Nolan's highest-rated film on the platform [^][^][^].
However, the film's lengthy runtime and technical execution drew some criticism. Despite widespread acclaim, the nearly three-hour runtime and subsequent pacing issues were notable points of contention that prevented a perfect score [^][^]. Additionally, some reviewers questioned if the pure-IMAX technical methodology fully delivered on its promise and felt the film occasionally struggled to establish a strong connection as a human story [^][^].
8. What is the typical timeline and volume for new critic reviews being added to Rotten Tomatoes for a major blockbuster in the first month post-release?
| Reviews start date for blockbusters | A few days before theatrical release [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| The Odyssey reviews by day before release | 145 reviews [^][^][^] |
| Rotten Tomatoes minimum for consideration | 80 reviews [^][^] |
Critic reviews for major blockbusters typically become available before release. Reviews for films like Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey generally appear on Rotten Tomatoes immediately after studio embargoes are lifted, which frequently occurs a few days prior to a film's theatrical debut [^][^][^]. Specifically, The Odyssey amassed 145 reviews by the day before its July 17, 2026, release date [^][^][^].
Rotten Tomatoes aggregates hundreds of reviews, with an 80-review minimum for specific thresholds. For major releases, Rotten Tomatoes bases its aggregate scores on hundreds of critic reviews, requiring at least 80 reviews for a film to be considered for certain designations [^][^]. While blockbusters consistently exceed this minimum throughout their theatrical run, the provided information does not detail the typical volume of new critic reviews added specifically within the first month after a film's release.
Studio embargoes and editorial decisions significantly influence review timing and volume. The timing and volume of review aggregation are also shaped by studio embargo policies, which dictate publication dates for critics, and by internal editorial choices made by Rotten Tomatoes regarding when to publicly display a film's aggregate score [^][^].
9. How do critic-versus-audience score correlations for recent large-scale epics, like 'Dune: Part Two', inform expectations for 'The Odyssey's' final rating?
| Dune: Part Two Critical Score | 97% on Rotten Tomatoes [^] |
|---|---|
| 'The Odyssey' Director | Christopher Nolan [^] |
| 'The Odyssey' Release Date | July 17, 2026 [^] |
Recent epics like Dune: Part Two set high critical benchmarks. Dune: Part Two (2024) achieved a 97% critical score on Rotten Tomatoes, demonstrating that large-scale, well-executed epics can attain exceptionally high critical and audience approval [^][^][^][^]. This success established a model where prestige science fiction films with significant thematic depth, visual scale, and strong direction consistently achieve high Rotten Tomatoes scores, often in the 80-90%+ range, for both critics and audiences [^].
'The Odyssey's' anticipated reception mirrors high epic standards. Christopher Nolan's epic fantasy action film, 'The Odyssey', is slated for release on July 17, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. Market expectations for its critical reception are largely influenced by the high standards set by recent successful epics like 'Dune: Part Two', especially given the filmmaker's history and the ambitious scope of the film [^][^][^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" is scheduled for a wide domestic release on July 17, 2026, by Universal [^] [^] . The film, which held its world premiere in London on July 6, 2026, and a New York premiere on July 14, 2026, carries an estimated $250 million budget and is widely described as highly anticipated [^][^][^]. Demand for IMAX 70mm screenings is significant [^][^].
Prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket, have established contracts related to the film's final Rotten Tomatoes score [^] [^] [^] . Trading Odds & Predictions 2026 | Polymarket" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^]. These contracts generally resolve around July 20, 2026, based on available data [^][^][^]. Market sentiment for the film is heavily bullish, with high-confidence odds assigned to a score exceeding 90% [^][^][^]. However, as of July 16, 2026, specific Rotten Tomatoes critical or audience scores are not available due to its impending release [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: July 27, 2026
- Closes: July 20, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" is scheduled for a wide domestic release on July 17, 2026, by Universal [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The film, which held its world premiere in London on July 6, 2026, and a New York premiere on July 14, 2026, carries an estimated $250 million budget and is widely described as highly anticipated [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Demand for IMAX 70mm screenings is significant [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket, have established contracts related to the film's final Rotten Tomatoes score [^] [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 11 resolved YES, 9 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXRT-EVI-69: YES (Jul 13, 2026)
- KXRT-EVI-68: YES (Jul 13, 2026)
- KXRT-EVI-66: YES (Jul 13, 2026)
- KXRT-EVI-67: YES (Jul 13, 2026)
- KXRT-MOA-34: NO (Jul 13, 2026)
