You Can See Everything · Rotten Tomatoes score
Short Answer
Strong early critical reviews and high Metacritic scores suggest "You Can See Everything" will achieve a Rotten Tomatoes score above 60, with the market pricing this outcome at 99.0% ahead of the October 19, 2026 resolution.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market's primary movement was a 39.0 percentage point spike on September 24, 2026, which repriced the contract from 60.0% to 99.0%. The sole driver was A24's release of the full trailer for "You Can See Everything" on September 23-24. A surge in social media discussion following the trailer's debut appears to have cemented conviction that the film would receive a high score. The move was accompanied by significant trading volume, with over 118,000 contracts changing hands.
The market's opening level of 60.0% likely reflected positive but limited information from the film's surprise screening at Telluride on September 6. The documentary, which follows Elizabeth Holmes for three years leading up to her prison sentence, had generated strong early critical feedback from the festival circuit. The trailer's release to a much wider audience, however, was the decisive event, shifting the market's assessment to near-certainty.
- Scores above 80 are highly probable due to strong early critical reception and universal acclaim.
- Scores above 94 face variance from a small review sample and future critic additions.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 80 | 99.0% | 99.2% | Strong early critical reviews and high Metacritic scores indicate positive reception. |
| Above 45 | 99.0% | 99.9% | Strong early critical reviews and high Metacritic scores indicate positive reception. |
| Above 75 | 99.0% | 99.3% | Strong early critical reviews and high Metacritic scores indicate positive reception. |
| Above 50 | 99.0% | 99.8% | Strong early critical reviews and high Metacritic scores indicate positive reception. |
| Above 55 | 99.0% | 99.7% | Strong early critical reviews and high Metacritic scores indicate positive reception. |
Current Context
You Can See Everything, an A24 documentary, premiered to strong early critical feedback. The 174-minute film about Elizabeth Holmes is co-directed by Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim, with a limited domestic release scheduled for October 16, 2026 [1][2][3]. It debuted as a surprise screening at Telluride on September 6, 2026 [4]. A24’s synopsis details Holmes inviting a skeptical film crew into her life 34 days before prison, evolving into a three-year documentary journey that began shooting in secrecy in 2023 [4][5]. Expert reviews describe the film as formally experimental, fascinating, uncomfortable, ambitious, funny, and deliberately slippery [6][7][4]. Early reactions characterize it as unusually gripping and troubling, with the 174-minute runtime noted as a talking point [8][9][10][11].
Rotten Tomatoes data remains inconsistent across multiple sources ahead of wide release. As of September 25, 2026, the Rotten Tomatoes page for You Can See Everything lists 1 critic review with an 8/10 score and no percentage Tomatometer visible [12]. This conflicts with a contemporaneous Wikipedia entry reporting a 100% approval rating from 10 reviews with a 9.5/10 average [13], and an IMDb news result showing 94% based on 33 reviews [14]. Metacritic reports universal acclaim with a 100 score from 5 reviews [15]. Rotten Tomatoes’ September 11 article described strong early critical enthusiasm [16]. Due to these discrepancies, the live Rotten Tomatoes page showing 1 review is considered authoritative for the current score [12][13][15][14]. Given the film’s pre-wide release status and inconsistent critical coverage, prediction markets on its final Rotten Tomatoes score face high uncertainty, though observable evidence suggests a positive critical lean [1][2].
Prediction markets show trading activity for Rotten Tomatoes score thresholds. As of September 24, 2026, Robinhood prediction market prices for You Can See Everything were 75¢ for Above 92, 66¢ for Above 94, and 53¢ for Above 96 on the Rotten Tomatoes score [17]. This contract resolves the Monday after wide release at 10:00 AM ET, defining a YES outcome as strictly above the strike value [17]. Separately, a speculative Oscar Best Picture prediction listing showed "You Can See Everything" at approximately 2% implied probability, with 1.3K 24-hour volume and 97.5K open interest [18]. This Best Picture listing represents a speculative market signal rather than an expert forecast [18].
Sources (18)
- 1You Can See Everything - Box Office Mojoboxofficemojo.com
- 2You Can See Everything (2026) - Box Office and Financial Informationthe-numbers.com
- 3You Can See Everything (2026)imdb.com
- 4'You Can See Everything' Review: Elizabeth Holmes...deadline.com
- 5You Can See Everything | A24a24films.com
- 6'You Can See Everything' Review: Nathan Fielder's Elizabeth Holmes Docvariety.com
- 7'You Can See Everything' Review: A24's Smart Elizabeth Holmes Dochollywoodreporter.com
- 8Nathan Fielder's Elizabeth Holmes Documentary Debuts to...imdb.com
- 9A24 Solidifies October Release Date For Elizabeth Holmes...imdb.com
- 10Nathan Fielder's Elizabeth Holmes Documentary Is Already...imdb.com
- 11'You Can See Everything' Review: Nathan Fielder's...imdb.com
- 12You Can See Everythingrottentomatoes.com
- 13You Can See Everythingen.wikipedia.org
- 14Lance Oppenheim - Newsimdb.com
- 15You Can See Everything Reviewsmetacritic.com
- 16You Can See Everything First Reviews: Riveting, Ambitious...editorial.rottentomatoes.com
- 17You Can See Everything · Rotten Tomatoes scorerobinhood.com
- 18Will You Can See Everything win Best Picture at the Osc… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 96
📉 September 25, 2026: 17.0pp drop
Price decreased from 57.0% to 40.0%
What happened: The provided web research does not identify a primary driver for the reported 17.0 percentage point drop in the "You Can See Everything" prediction market price on September 25, 2026, for the "Above 96" outcome. Instead, evidence leading up to this date, including the highly viral trailer release on September 23, 2026, which amassed millions of views and topped YouTube trending charts, indicates strong positive social media momentum [1]. Additionally, early critical reception reported a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score for the film [2]. While a viral typo in the trailer on September 24, 2026, triggered online discussion and conspiracy theories, it was corrected and did not demonstrably undermine the overwhelmingly positive critical outlook [3]. Therefore, despite significant social media activity, it appears to have contributed to a positive buzz, making it irrelevant as a primary driver for the reported price drop based on the available information.
Outcome: Above 85
📈 September 24, 2026: 62.0pp spike
Price increased from 31.0% to 93.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the price movement was the surge in social media discussion following A24's release of the full trailer for "You Can See Everything" on September 23–24, 2026 [4][5][6]. This social media activity, coinciding with the market spike, centered on the trailer's unsettling tone and a widely discussed viral typo in a pull quote, which was subsequently corrected by A24 [3][7][8][9]. While the film already had exceptionally strong early critical reception, this renewed public attention and online virality likely reinforced confidence in an "Above 85" Rotten Tomatoes score [10][11]. Social media was a primary driver, effectively broadening awareness and accelerating market sentiment around the prediction date.
Sources (11)
- 1‘You Can See Everything’ Trailer Released. What Is the Elizabeth Holmes Doc About?today.com
- 2You Can See Everythingen.wikipedia.org
- 3'You Can See Everything' Trailer's Viral Typo Fixed by A24hollywoodreporter.com
- 4You Can See Everything - Official Trailer (2026) Nathan...youtube.com
- 5‘You Can See Everything’ trailer: Nathan Fielder moves in with Elizabeth Holmes for a bizarre three-year documentary - The Hinduthehindu.com
- 6Nathan Fielder's Elizabeth Holmes Documentary Is Already...imdb.com
- 7Nathan Fielder’s You Can See Everything Fixes Trailer Mistake, But Fans Have Conspiracy Theoriescomingsoon.net
- 8Nathan Fielder's 'You Can See Everything' trailer scares fans: "Like a horror film"nme.com
- 9You Can See Everything Trailer: Elizabeth Holmes' Doc Is Insane - Nerdistnerdist.com
- 10A24's Wild Documentary You Can See Everything Gets First Bizarre Trailerpolygon.com
- 11Nathan Fielder’s Elizabeth Holmes Documentary Debuts to an Insane Rotten Tomatoes Scorecomicbasics.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves based on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score for the film "You Can See Everything." A 'YES' resolution occurs if the final Tomatometer score is at or above the specified percentage threshold (e.g., 96%), while a 'NO' resolution occurs if it is below that threshold. The latest this market will resolve and payout is October 19, 2026.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 45 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 50 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 55 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 60 | $0.99 | $0.02 | 99% |
| Above 65 | $0.99 | $0.02 | 99% |
| Above 75 | $0.99 | $0.02 | 99% |
| Above 80 | $0.99 | $0.02 | 99% |
| Above 70 | $0.99 | $0.02 | 98% |
| Above 85 | $0.95 | $0.08 | 95% |
| Above 90 | $0.85 | $0.16 | 85% |
| Above 92 | $0.75 | $0.26 | 75% |
| Above 94 | $0.67 | $0.34 | 67% |
| Above 96 | $0.42 | $0.60 | 40% |
Market Discussion
While the specific Rotten Tomatoes score for "You Can See Everything" appears to vary, with one listing showing 8/10 from a single critic review as of September 25, 2026, other sources report 100% based on 10 reviews with a 9.5/10 average, and Metacritic lists universal acclaim across 5 critic reviews [1]. Early reviews describe the film as "riveting" and "acclaimed," contributing to social media buzz and high expectations [2]. Prediction market contracts suggest a high probability for a top-tier score, with "Above 92" priced at 75¢ and "Above 96" at 53¢, consistent with a mention of a 96% Certified Fresh rating [3].
5. Trust Index
“Above 94” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.
Integrity risk· Thin-volume moves
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score76Good
Market integrity is low (63), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score85Strong
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses under 1% of the price to slippage.
Trust score78Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What are the key themes in the initial critic reviews for 'You Can See Everything' following its Telluride premiere, and do they support a 90%+ score?
| Current RT Reviews | 1 Tomatometer review [1] |
|---|---|
| Current RT Rating | 8/10 [1] |
| Film Runtime | 174 minutes [2][3][4][5][6] |
Initial critical reviews for 'You Can See Everything' are strongly positive following its Telluride premiere. Many critics describe the film as riveting, fascinating, thought-provoking, and formally ambitious [7][3][4][5][6][8]. While the initial tone of these reviews suggests a directional prediction for a 90%+ Rotten Tomatoes score, a guaranteed outcome is premature due to the small early sample size and identifiable caveats [7][3][4][5][6][8]. As of the research date, Rotten Tomatoes' film page displays only 1 Tomatometer review, rated 8/10, which is not yet a stable aggregate [1].
Critics highlight the film's innovative hybrid form and complex thematic exploration. Key themes in the initial reviews emphasize its blend of documentary, reality-TV spectacle, deadpan comedy, and psychological portraiture, evolving into an increasingly meta or surreal narrative concerning Elizabeth Holmes's story [2][3][4][5][6]. Reviewers also point to the unusually long 174-minute runtime, its spoiler-sensitive structure featuring major second-half turns, and its deep dive into ambiguity, questioning Holmes's self-presentation and the possibility of objective truth [2][3][4][5][6][5][8]. The documentary examines complex topics such as guilt, power, gender, punishment, media spectacle, and narrative control, rather than providing simple redemption or a definitive explanation [2][3][5][8].
Despite significant praise, critics also voiced some ethical and structural reservations. These concerns primarily touch on blind spots regarding Theranos victims and Holmes's family, questions about the film's claims to pure truth, or a sense that its ambitions occasionally exceed its control [3][4][5][6]. However, these observations generally coexist with substantial enthusiasm for the film [3][4][5][6].
Sources (8)
- 1You Can See Everythingrottentomatoes.com
- 2'You Can See Everything' Review: Nathan Fielder's...variety.com
- 3'You Can See Everything' Review: Nathan Fielder and...indiewire.com
- 4'You Can See Everything' Review: Elizabeth Holmes...deadline.com
- 5'You Can See Everything' Review: Elizabeth Holmes Doc...hollywoodreporter.com
- 6Telluride Film Festival Review: 'You Can See Everything' is...awardsradar.com
- 7You Can See Everything First Reviews: Riveting, Ambitious...editorial.rottentomatoes.com
- 8"YOU CAN SEE EVERYTHING" - Reviewnextbestpicture.com
7. How do the implied probabilities from the Kalshi and Robinhood prediction markets for the film's score compare, and what does the Oscar Best Picture market signal about its perceived quality?
| Kalshi Rotten Tomatoes Score > 96% | 97.9% [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Robinhood Rotten Tomatoes Score > 96% | 53% [3] |
| Robinhood 'The Odyssey' Best Picture Probability | 53% [4] |
Prediction markets show differing optimism for "You Can See Everything's" Rotten Tomatoes score. Kalshi forecasts a 97.9% implied probability for the film's Rotten Tomatoes score to be above 96, referencing an underlying Tomatometer of 100% [1][2]. In contrast, Robinhood's market indicates a 53% implied probability for the same outcome [1][3]. This makes Kalshi's forecast 44.9 percentage points more optimistic than Robinhood's. It is important to note that figures from both platforms represent market-implied probabilities, not guaranteed final scores [3].
"The Odyssey" leads the Robinhood Oscar Best Picture market as a strong contender. The film is currently positioned at 53¢, which implies a 53% chance of winning Best Picture [4]. This places "The Odyssey" significantly ahead of other films, such as "The Black Ball" at 13¢ and "Dune: Part Three" at 12¢ [4]. While the market signals high perceived awards quality for "The Odyssey," its 53% probability suggests it is considered a favorite rather than an assured winner [5][4].
8. What is the typical review aggregation timeline on Rotten Tomatoes for a limited-release A24 film, and what does this imply for this market's resolution?
| Review aggregation started | September 11 [1] |
|---|---|
| Theatrical release date | Friday, October 16, 2026 [2] |
| Prediction market resolution | Monday, October 19, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET [3][1] |
Review aggregation for A24 films spans initial screenings to market resolution. For the A24 film "You Can See Everything," review aggregation on Rotten Tomatoes began on September 11, following its debut at the Telluride Film Festival [1]. The film is slated for a theatrical release on Friday, October 16, 2026 [2]. Concurrently, its associated prediction market will resolve on Monday, October 19, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET [3][1]. This establishes a practical aggregation period for the Tomatometer score, encompassing initial festival and press reviews through the theatrical release weekend of October 16, with the official contractual score snapshot occurring on October 19 [3][2][1].
Early Tomatometer scores are highly volatile and unreliable indicators. Such scores, particularly those reflecting 100% from a limited number of reviews, should be considered high-variance signals rather than definitive outcomes. Pre-release and early-festival review counts can be incomplete or update asynchronously, as observed when Rotten Tomatoes displayed one critic review for "You Can See Everything" on September 25, 2026, while Wikipedia indicated 100% from ten reviews [3][4][5]. For comparable A24 limited-release titles like "First Reformed" (256 reviews), "A Ghost Story" (287 reviews), and "Past Lives" (317 reviews), the total review counts ultimately became substantial [6][7][8]. This suggests that a Tomatometer score visible during a festival or limited opening should not be presumed to be the final stabilized score. Since prediction markets resolve based on whether the Tomatometer is strictly above specific thresholds, reviews added late, prior to the Monday, October 19, 2026 snapshot, have the potential to shift a borderline score across a threshold [3].
Sources (8)
- 1You Can See Everything First Reviews: Riveting, Ambitious...editorial.rottentomatoes.com
- 2'You Can See Everything': Here's When A24 Is Releasing...deadline.com
- 3You Can See Everything · Rotten Tomatoes score Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 4You Can See Everythingrottentomatoes.com
- 5You Can See Everythingen.wikipedia.org
- 6First Reformed | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
- 7A Ghost Story | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
- 8Past Lives | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
9. What explains the discrepancy in the number of reviews for 'You Can See Everything' cited by Rotten Tomatoes versus Wikipedia and IMDb in late September 2026?
| Rotten Tomatoes Review Count (late Sept 2026) | 1 Review [1] |
|---|---|
| Wikipedia Reported RT Review Count (Sept 7, 2026) | 10 reviews [2] |
| Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score (late Sept 2026) | 8/10 [1] |
Review count discrepancies arose from Rotten Tomatoes' ingestion process. The differing review counts for 'You Can See Everything' between Rotten Tomatoes (1 review) and Wikipedia/IMDb (10 reviews) in late September 2026 are primarily a timing and scope mismatch [1][2][3]. Rotten Tomatoes' live film page, at the time of the retrieved snapshot, reflected only the reviews currently ingested and eligible in its Tomatometer database, displaying a single review [1]. Conversely, Wikipedia's September 7, 2026 article version reported Rotten Tomatoes at 100% based on 10 reviews, with a 9.5/10 average [2]. Early critical notices were circulating after the film's Telluride surprise screening, as noted in a September 11 Rotten Tomatoes article, indicating that not all early reviews necessarily appeared in the Tomatometer record immediately [3].
IMDb's reported reviews are independent of the Tomatometer count. IMDb is an independent platform, and its review count does not directly correspond to the Tomatometer count [1][2][3]. For market resolution, the relevant number is Rotten Tomatoes' live Tomatometer, which can change as additional eligible reviews are added [1][2][3]. The prediction-market contract is explicitly tied to the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score after wide release, rather than IMDb or Wikipedia entries [4].
10. How do the Rotten Tomatoes scores of past A24 documentaries and films by directors Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim compare to the market's expectations for 'You Can See Everything'?
| Market Expectation RT Score | Mid-90s, with 53% chance of exceeding 96% (Sept 24-25, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Nathan Fielder's Highest RT Score | 98% (The Rehearsal Season 2) [2] |
| Lance Oppenheim's Highest RT Score | 100% (Ren Faire) [3] |
The market anticipates a high Rotten Tomatoes score for 'You Can See Everything'. Current prediction market analysis, as of September 24–25, 2026, indicates a central prediction in the mid-90s for the film's Rotten Tomatoes score, with a 53% probability of it exceeding 96% [1]. This optimism is underpinned by the strong historical performance of its directors. Nathan Fielder's 'The Rehearsal' achieved an overall Rotten Tomatoes score of 96%, with Season 2 specifically reaching 98% [4][2]. Similarly, Lance Oppenheim's previous works have been highly acclaimed; 'Some Kind of Heaven' scored 93% [5], and 'Ren Faire' attained a perfect 100% [3][6]. Early festival screenings of 'You Can See Everything' also initially reflected a 100% Tomatometer score, though these were based on a limited number of reviews [7][8][9].
Similar recent documentaries show strong critical reception, supporting market optimism. A trend of high Rotten Tomatoes scores among comparable recent documentaries further validates these market expectations. Examples include 'The Arc of Oblivion' at 100% from 17 reviews [10], 'Eno' at 97% from 31 reviews [11], 'Will & Harper' at 99% from 121 reviews [12], 'Pavements' at 95% from 61 reviews [13], and 'Monk in Pieces' at 92% from 13 reviews [14]. Given these consistent directorial precedents and strong documentary benchmarks, the market's expectation for 'You Can See Everything' to achieve a mid-to-high 90s score appears reasonable. While an eventual 100% score is plausible, it is considered less secure than early perfect scores from a limited number of reviews might suggest [1][5][3][6][7].
Sources (14)
- 1You Can See Everything · Rotten Tomatoes scorerobinhood.com
- 2The Rehearsal: Season 2 | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
- 3Lance Oppenheim Movies & TV Shows List | Rotten Tomatoes | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
- 4The Rehearsal (2022) | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
- 5Some Kind of Heaven | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
- 6Ren Faire | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
- 7You Can See Everything - Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
- 8You Can See Everything - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
- 9Nathan Fielder’s Elizabeth Holmes Documentary Debuts to an...comicbasics.com
- 10The Arc of Oblivion | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
- 11Eno | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
- 12Will & Harper | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
- 13Pavements | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
- 14Monk in Pieces | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
"You Can See Everything" currently shows strong critical reception, with a 100% Tomatometer score based on 10 reviews and a 9.5/10 average rating on Rotten Tomatoes, alongside a 95/100 Metacritic score based on 5 critic reviews, characterized as universal acclaim [1][2][3]. Early reviews from its surprise Telluride premiere described the film as "riveting, ambitious, entertaining, thought-provoking, and brilliant" [4]. The documentary's focus on Elizabeth Holmes, its unusual access, and the involvement of directors Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim are expected to generate significant audience and critical curiosity [5][6].
However, potential bearish catalysts exist, primarily due to the very small and potentially unstable review sample [1][2][7][8][9][5][10]. Rotten Tomatoes shows an inconsistency between the listed 100%/10 review count and a displayed 1 review with an 8/10 snippet [1][2]. The film's unusual experimental documentary format, its 2-hour-54-minute runtime, and a limited initial release could lead to polarization as more audiences and critics weigh in [1][2][7][8][9][5][10]. The market faces uncertainty regarding exact resolution timing if wide-release scheduling changes [7][8][9].
Key events impacting the market timeline include the September 30, 2026 New York Film Festival Spotlight debut [9][4], followed by A24's planned general release on October 16, 2026, which is also listed as a limited theatrical release [8][9][5][10]. Prediction market contracts resolve at 10:00 AM ET on the Monday after wide release, implying an October 19, 2026 resolution if the October 16 date holds [7]. Review accumulation and box office reporting will continue post-release [5][10][11].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: October 26, 2026
- Closes: October 19, 2026
Sources (11)
- 1You Can See Everythingrottentomatoes.com
- 2You Can See Everythingen.wikipedia.org
- 3You Can See Everything Reviews - Metacriticmetacritic.com
- 4You Can See Everything First Reviews: Riveting, Ambitious...editorial.rottentomatoes.com
- 5You Can See Everything - Box Office Mojoboxofficemojo.com
- 6You Can See Everything - Box Office Mojoboxofficemojo.com
- 7You Can See Everything · Rotten Tomatoes scorerobinhood.com
- 8You Can See Everythinga24films.com
- 9You Can Know Everything About 'You Can See Everything'vulture.com
- 10You Can See Everything (2026) - Box Office and Financial Informationthe-numbers.com
- 11Domestic Release Schedule - Box Office Mojoboxofficemojo.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 11 resolved YES, 9 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXRT-RES-98: NO (Sep 21, 2026)
- KXRT-RES-96: NO (Sep 21, 2026)
- KXRT-RES-94: YES (Sep 21, 2026)
- KXRT-RES-93: YES (Sep 21, 2026)
- KXRT-RES-95: NO (Sep 21, 2026)
