Short Answer

TELUS internet additions in Q1 2027 are not expected to exceed -20,000 net subscribers, reflecting the company's strategic focus on margin sustainability and a deceleration in additions through 2026. The market prices this outcome at 0.0%, diverging from the model's 20.0% probability.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • TELUS's strategic shift toward efficiency signals very low or negative Q1 2027 additions.
  • Internet net additions declined sequentially in 2026; Q3 reported 10,000.
  • Debt reduction initiatives further limit subscriber acquisition budgets.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above -20,000 0.0% 20.0% TELUS's strategic shift towards margins and capital efficiency suggests very low or negative additions.
Above 0 0.0% 10.0% TELUS's strategic shift towards margins and capital efficiency suggests very low or negative additions.
Above 10,000 0.0% 2.0% TELUS's strategic shift towards margins and capital efficiency suggests very low or negative additions.
Above 15,000 0.0% 1.0% TELUS's strategic shift towards margins and capital efficiency suggests very low or negative additions.
Above 20,000 0.0% 20.0% Model higher by 20.0pp

Current Context

TELUS internet net additions show a clear decelerating trend. Net additions have declined from +35,000 in Q4 2025 to +21,000 in Q1 2026, +20,000 in Q2 2026, and +10,000 in Q3 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Year-to-date additions for the first nine months of 2026 totaled 51,000, a 42% decrease from 88,000 in 2025 [1][2][3][4][5][6]. The Q3 2026 internet net adds of 10,000 missed the two-analyst average estimate of 18,070 [4][7]. Management stated in the Q3 2026 earnings call that this level of internet net adds reflects a deliberate strategy to prioritize sustainable margins and capital efficiency over subsidized volume [4].
Financial results and strategic actions reflect a focus on efficiency. TELUS reported a Q3 2026 net loss of $660M, primarily driven by an $800M non-cash goodwill impairment in TELUS Health [8][4][9]. Consolidated Service revenue for the quarter was $4.5B, down 1% year-over-year, and Adjusted EBITDA was $1.8B, down 5% year-over-year (-2% normalized) [8][4][9]. The company announced a multi-year efficiency program targeting approximately $900M in annualized cash savings exiting 2028 [8][10][11][4]. TELUS also plans to accelerate monetization of TELUS Health and TELUS Agriculture & Consumer Goods to fund debt reduction, aiming for a net debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3.0x or lower by year-end 2028 [8][10][11][4]. In July 2026, the quarterly dividend was cut by 55% to $0.1875 per share (75 cents annualized), which should generate approximately $2.7 billion in cumulative cash savings through 2028 for debt reduction [10][11]. S&P Global Ratings forecasts 2027 EBITDA growth of 2%-4%, flat 2027 revenues, broadband revenue growth below 1% through 2028, net leverage close to 3.8x in 2027, and capital expenditures of C$2.3 billion in 2027 [12]. Desjardins analyst Jerome Dubreuil cut his TELUS price target to $13.00 from $13.50 (Hold) in October 2026, citing factors including slower population growth, strong competition, and CRTC-related activation-fee pressure [10][13].
Market expectations for Q1 2027 internet additions are negative. A prediction market for TELUS internet net additions in Q1 2027 (ending May 7, 2027) prices the probability of additions above -20,000, above 0, or above 5,000 all at less than 1% [14]. This implies market expectations for negative or near-zero internet net additions in Q1 2027 [14]. Despite the internet subscriber trends, TELUS reported strong consumer mobility performance in Q3 2026, with mobile phone net adds of 84,000 significantly beating the 45,040 estimate [4][7]. Blended mobile churn of 1.01% was a three-year low [4][7]. Management expects the strength in the consumer mobility franchise to continue through 2027 and 2028 [4]. TELUS Q4 2026/FY2026 results are expected around mid-February 2027, and Q1 2027 results are anticipated around early-to-mid May 2027 [15][16][17][18].
Sources (18)
  1. 1TELUS Q3 2026 Results: Capex Rises 8% to C$701...telecomlead.com
  2. 2IR supplemental PDF (TELUS Q3 2026 IR Supplemental) (TSX:T) | 6ix6ix.com
  3. 3TELUS reports operational and financial results for first quarter 2026telus.com
  4. 4TELUS (TU) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  5. 5TELUS: News Release PDF (TELUS Q4 2025 News Release EN) | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  6. 6Q4 2025 Investor Conference Call February 12, 2026assets.ctfassets.net
  7. 7Telus (TU) Q3 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimatesfinance.yahoo.com
  8. 8TELUS Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results, Demonstrates Continued Discipline in Core Telecom; Advances Transformation Strategytelus.com
  9. 9Q3 2026 Results Conference Callassets.ctfassets.net
  10. 10This analyst just cut his price target on Teluscantechletter.com
  11. 11Telus's Results Are Coming Up: 3 Questions Investors Should Be Asking  | The Motley Fool Canadafool.ca
  12. 12Research Update: Telus Corp. Outlook Revised To Sspglobal.com
  13. 13TELUS (TSX:T) Stock Price & Overviewstockanalysis.com
  14. 14TELUS internet additions next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  15. 15TELUS Q1 2026 Earnings Results & Reportmarketbeat.com
  16. 16TELUS Corporation (T.TO) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
  17. 17TELUS Corporation: Company Events Publications and Financial Calendar | T | CA87971M1032 | MarketScreener Canadaca.marketscreener.com
  18. 18T.CA Earnings History & Surprises | EPS & Revenue Results | ChartMill.comchartmill.com

2. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if TELUS's internet additions for the next quarter are above -20,000, and NO if they are -20,000 or less. The market closes on May 7, 6:00 am EDT. The maximum payout date for this market is September 4, 2027, and no special settlement conditions are detailed on this page.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above -20,000 $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 0 $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 10,000 $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 15,000 $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 20,000 $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 30,000 $0.00 $1.00 0%
Above 5,000 $0.00 $1.00 0%

Market Discussion

A prediction market for TELUS Q1 2027 internet additions shows very low implied probabilities (<1%) for positive net additions, suggesting traders anticipate flat-to-negative results [1]. This outlook aligns with management's stated shift in Q3 2026, prioritizing sustainable margins and capital efficiency over subsidized volume, which contributed to lower-than-expected internet net additions of 10,000 in Q3 2026 [2]. However, historical Q1 internet net additions for TELUS were 21,000 in both Q1 2025 and Q1 2026 [3].

Sources (3)
  1. 1TELUS internet additions next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  2. 2Telus (TU) Q3 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimatesfinance.yahoo.com
  3. 3Supplemental Investor Informationassets.ctfassets.net

3. How might TELUS's Q4 2026 earnings report and 2027 guidance influence projections for Q1 2027 internet subscriber growth?

Q3 2026 Internet Net Additions+10,000 [1]
S&P Global Ratings 2027 Adjusted EBITDA Growth Forecast2%-4% [2]
Industry Broadband Revenue Growth through 2028less than 1% [2]
TELUS's Q4 2026 report likely reinforces low Q1 2027 internet growth. The upcoming Q4 2026 earnings report and 2027 guidance are expected to confirm projections for low or negative internet subscriber growth in Q1 2027, aligning with prediction market expectations for flat or negative net additions [3]. This outlook is consistent with TELUS's ongoing strategic shift to prioritize sustainable margins and capital efficiency over subsidized volume [4][1]. The Q4 2026 report will provide the latest update on internet net additions, following a trend of decreases from +35,000 in Q4 2025 to +10,000 in Q3 2026 [5][6][7][8][9][10][1].
Reaffirmed 2026 guidance and 2027 forecasts indicate growth challenges. TELUS reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance as of November 6, 2026, projecting consolidated service revenue growth of flat to (2%) and consolidated adjusted EBITDA growth of (2%) to (4%), with noted pressure in fixed data [11][12]. Looking into 2027, S&P Global Ratings forecasts modest adjusted EBITDA growth of 2%-4% for TELUS [2]. Furthermore, TELUS management has stated a commitment to not pursue unprofitable traffic in third-party internet access and anticipates lower capital expenditure in 2027 compared to 2026 [13][9][14].
External factors and competition further pressure subscriber additions. S&P Global also expects industry broadband revenue to grow less than 1% through 2028 due to changing competitive dynamics [2]. Additionally, lower immigration in Canada is cited as a significant structural headwind, reducing the addressable market for new customer growth through 2028 [13][2][15][16][17]. These collective factors point to continued pressure on internet subscriber additions in Q1 2027.
Sources (17)
  1. 1IR supplemental PDF (TELUS Q3 2026 IR Supplemental) (TSX:T) | 6ix6ix.com
  2. 2Research Update: Telus Corp. Outlook Revised To Sspglobal.com
  3. 3TELUS internet additions next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  4. 4TELUS (TU) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  5. 5Q4 2025 Investor Conference Call February 12, 2026assets.ctfassets.net
  6. 6TELUS reports strong and industry leading operational and financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025; establishes compelling and industry-best 2026 financial targetsnewswire.ca
  7. 7Q1 2026 Investor Conference Call May 8, 2026assets.ctfassets.net
  8. 8Q1 2026 Investor Conference Call Transcript Friday, May 8, 2026assets.ctfassets.net
  9. 9TELUS reports second quarter 2026 financial and operational results and resets quarterly dividend to support deleveraging and fuel long-term growth | National Postnationalpost.com
  10. 10https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/868675/000110465926088973/tu-20260630xex99d2.htmsec.gov
  11. 11Q3 2026 Results Conference Callassets.ctfassets.net
  12. 12TELUS (TU) Reports Q3 Net Loss on Health Impairment...tickeron.com
  13. 13TELUS at cIBC eastern investor conference: sharper focus, lower payout By Investing.cominvesting.com
  14. 14https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/868675/000110465926088975/tm2615221d2_ex99-1.htmsec.gov
  15. 15'Uncertainty' weighs on Telus results, but company hopeful AI can bring new revenue - Airdrie Newsairdriecityview.com
  16. 16Thursday’s analyst upgrades and downgrades - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com
  17. 17Ipsos Reportipsos.com

4. What evidence underpins the market's expectation for near-zero or negative TELUS internet net additions in Q1 2027?

Q3 2026 Internet Net Additions10,000 (down 75% year-over-year) [1][2]
Subscribers Removed Jan 202630,000 [2][3]
Q1 2027 Net Additions Probability (above 0)Less than 1% [4]
The market expects near-zero or negative TELUS internet net additions in Q1 2027. This outlook is strongly reflected in the Kalshi prediction market, which indicates less than 1% probability of net additions being above zero, above 5,000, or above -20,000 [4]. This expectation is reinforced by a notable decline in internet net additions throughout 2026. TELUS internet net additions decreased from 21,000 in Q1 to 10,000 in Q3, representing a 75% year-over-year decline for Q3 [1][2]. Cumulatively, the nine-month total for 2026 reached 51,000, which is 37,000 fewer than the additions recorded in the same period of 2025 [1][2][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13].
Management prioritizes margins and efficiency, avoiding unprofitable customer volume. This trend is consistent with TELUS management’s strategic emphasis on sustainable margins and capital efficiency over subscriber volume. In Q3 2026, management directly attributed the 10,000 internet net additions to a "deliberate shift" towards profitable loading, moving away from subsidized volume [1][14][2]. This commitment was reiterated at the cIBC Eastern Investor Conference, where the company affirmed it would not pursue unprofitable traffic in third-party internet access (TPIA) [15]. Furthermore, TELUS proactively removed 30,000 low-margin internet subscribers from its base, effective January 1, 2026 [2][3]. Looking forward, the company is implementing a $900 million efficiency program designed to achieve annualized cash savings exiting 2028, with the full benefits projected from 2027 onwards [1][2]. Additionally, demographic factors, specifically lower immigration levels, have meaningfully reduced the available market for new customer growth [5][6][9][11].
Sources (15)
  1. 1TELUS (TU) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  2. 2TELUS CORPORATION Management’s discussion and analysis 2026 Q3assets.ctfassets.net
  3. 3https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/868675/000110465926088973/tu-20260630xex99d2.htmsec.gov
  4. 4TELUS internet additions next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  5. 5Q2 2026 Investor Conference Call Transcript Friday, July 31, 2026assets.ctfassets.net
  6. 6TELUS (TU) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com
  7. 7Q1 2026 Investor Conference Call Transcript Friday, May 8, 2026assets.ctfassets.net
  8. 8Q1 2026 Investor Conference Call May 8, 2026assets.ctfassets.net
  9. 9TELUS (TU) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com
  10. 10TELUS reports second quarter 2026 financial and operational results and resets quarterly dividend to support deleveraging and fuel long-term growth | The Stratford Beacon Heraldstratfordbeaconherald.com
  11. 11TELUS (TSX:T) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  12. 12AI: Telus reports first-quarter profitbnnbloomberg.ca
  13. 13'Uncertainty' weighs on Telus results, but company hopeful AI can bring new revenue - Airdrie Newsairdriecityview.com
  14. 14What TELUS (TU) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Calltradingview.com
  15. 15TELUS at cIBC eastern investor conference: sharper focus, lower payout By Investing.cominvesting.com

5. How did TELUS's internet subscriber performance and acquisition strategy in 2026 compare to Canadian competitors Bell and Rogers?

TELUS Q3 2026 Internet Net Additions10,000 (declined 75% year-over-year) [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Bell Q3 2026 Residential FTTH Net Activations67,199 (including Ziply Fiber) [7][8][9][10][11]
Rogers Q3 2026 Retail Internet Net Additions10,000 (significant year-over-year decline) [12][13][14]
TELUS experienced a significant decline in internet subscriber growth in 2026. The company reported internet subscriber net additions of 10,000 in Q3 2026, representing a 75% year-over-year decrease from the 40,000 additions in Q3 2025 [15][1][16][17][2][5][6][3][4]. This reflected a strategic prioritization of sustainable margins and capital efficiency over volume, with Q3's performance primarily driven by churn improvement rather than an increase in gross additions [15][1][2]. Furthermore, TELUS imposed a moratorium on acquisitions during Q3 2026 and discontinued its dividend reinvestment plan's dilutive discount to enhance its balance sheet [1][2][3][4].
Bell demonstrated strong internet subscriber growth, contrasting with Rogers' significant declines. Bell recorded 67,199 residential FTTH net activations in Q3 2026, partly attributable to its August 1, 2025, acquisition of Ziply Fiber [18][19][7][8][9][10][11]. In contrast, Rogers reported 10,000 retail internet net additions in Q3 2026, indicating a significant year-over-year decline, and also experienced a fiber outage in Richmond, BC, in August 2026 [20][21][22][23][12][13][14]. Notably, TELUS and Rogers did not undertake comparable internet acquisitions in 2026 [1][2][3][4][18][19][7][8][9][10][11].
Sources (23)
  1. 1TELUS (TSX:T) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Audiostockanalysis.com
  2. 2TELUS (TU) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com
  3. 3TELUS Q1 2026 Earnings Results & Reportmarketbeat.com
  4. 4TU Q1 FY2026 earnings callfinance.biggo.com
  5. 5Q1 2026 Investor Conference Call Transcript Friday, May 8, 2026assets.ctfassets.net
  6. 6Q1 2026 Investor Conference Call May 8, 2026assets.ctfassets.net
  7. 7BCE reports first quarter 2026 resultsbce.ca
  8. 8Documentsec.gov
  9. 9BCE reports first quarter 2026 resultsnewswire.ca
  10. 10BCE reports first quarter 2026 resultsprnewswire.com
  11. 11BCE reports first quarter 2026 resultsprnewswire.com
  12. 12Rogers Communications Reports First Quarter 2026 Results | GlobeNewswire Press Releases | thecanadianpressnews.cathecanadianpressnews.ca
  13. 13Rogers beats revenue estimates, takes non-cash loss from MLSE stake - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com
  14. 14ROGERS COMMUNICATIONS REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTSabout.rogers.com
  15. 15TELUS CORPORATION Management’s discussion and analysis 2026 Q3assets.ctfassets.net
  16. 16https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/868675/000110465926088975/tm2615221d2_ex99-1.htmsec.gov
  17. 17TELUS reports operational and financial results for first quarter 2026telus.com
  18. 18BCE reports third quarter 2026 resultsbce.ca
  19. 19BCE reports second quarter 2026 resultsbce.ca
  20. 20Telus, Quebecor report subscriber jumps in Q3 2026mobilesyrup.com
  21. 21Rogers Faces Subscriber Growth Concerns After Richmond Fiber Outage | StockTistockti.com
  22. 22Rogers adds 17,000 broadband, 40,000 mobile subscribers in Q2 - Telecompapertelecompaper.com
  23. 23RCI-03.31.2026-Exhibit 99.3about.rogers.com

6. What are the key reporting dates for TELUS's Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 results, and what is the historical accuracy of analyst forecasts for internet additions?

Q4 2026 Earnings Estimated DateThursday, February 11, 2027 [1][2][3]
Q1 2027 Earnings Expected DateEarly-to-mid May 2027 [1][4][5][6]
Q4 2025 Internet Net Additions BeatActual 35,000 vs. estimate 31,410 (+11.4%) [7][8][9]
TELUS's Q4 2026 earnings are projected for February 2027. The estimated release date for TELUS's Q4 2026 earnings is Thursday, February 11, 2027, at 6:00 AM ET [1][2][3]. The consensus EPS estimate stands at $0.12 on projected revenue of $3.65 billion [1][2][3]. This date is currently an estimate and awaits official confirmation from the company. Following this, Q1 2027 earnings are anticipated to be released in early-to-mid May 2027 [1][4][5][6]. This timing aligns with TELUS's historical Q1 reporting schedule, which includes specific past dates such as May 8, 2026, May 9, 2025, May 9, 2024, and May 4, 2023 [1][4][5][6].
Analyst forecasts for TELUS internet additions have historically been conservative. Actual results have frequently surpassed initial estimates [10][7][11][12]. For example, in Q4 2025, TELUS reported 35,000 internet net additions, which exceeded the two-analyst average estimate of 31,410 by approximately 11.4% [7][8][9]. Similarly, Q4 2024 saw 37,000 internet net additions, beating the analyst consensus of 31,000 by about 19.4% [11][13]. In Q1 2026, additions of 21,000 surpassed the 19,300 average estimate by 8.8% [12][14][15].
TELUS internet additions showed a declining trend throughout 2026. The company recorded 21,000 additions in Q1, 20,000 in Q2, and 10,000 in Q3 [16][17]. This decrease is attributed to a strategic shift away from aggressive promotional pricing. For Q1 2027, the Kalshi prediction market indicates very low probabilities (less than 1%) for internet additions exceeding 0 or 5,000 [18]. This suggests market expectations of minimal or even negative net additions. Specific analyst forecasts for Q1 2027 internet additions were not available in the provided research.
Sources (18)
  1. 1Telus (TU) Earnings Dates, Call Summary & Reports - TipRanks.comtipranks.com
  2. 2TELUS (TU) Earnings: Latest Report, Earnings Call & Financialspublic.com
  3. 3TU Earnings Date (Est. Feb 11, 2027), EPS Estimate & Historybigearnings.ai
  4. 4Telus (T) Earnings Dates, Call Summary & Reportstipranks.com
  5. 5TELUS Q1 2026 Earnings Results & Reportmarketbeat.com
  6. 6TELUS (TU) Earnings Date, Estimates & Call Transcriptsmarketbeat.com
  7. 7Telus (TU) Q4 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimatesfinance.yahoo.com
  8. 8News Releaseassets.ctfassets.net
  9. 9TELUS reports strong and industry leading operational and financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025; establishes compelling and industry-best 2026 financial targetsprnewswire.com
  10. 10Telus (TU) Q3 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street Estimatesfinance.yahoo.com
  11. 11Telus shares jump on higher fourth-quarter earnings, solid outlook - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com
  12. 12Telus (TU) Q1 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimatessg.finance.yahoo.com
  13. 13Q4 2024 investor conference call February 13, 2025assets.ctfassets.net
  14. 14AI: Telus reports first-quarter profitbnnbloomberg.ca
  15. 15Q1 2026 Investor Conference Call Transcript Friday, May 8, 2026assets.ctfassets.net
  16. 16Management's discussion and analysis (Form 6-K)publicnow.com
  17. 17TELUS (TU) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com
  18. 18TELUS internet additions next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com

7. How will TELUS's announced efficiency program and debt reduction targets affect its subscriber acquisition budget for Q1 2027?

Annualized cash savings target$900 million exiting 2028 [1][2][3][4]
Dividend cut cumulative cash savings$2.7 billion through 2028 [1][5][2][3][4]
Net debt to Adjusted EBITDA target3.0x or lower by year-end 2028 [1][5][2][3][4]
TELUS is strategically shifting towards sustainable margins and capital efficiency, reducing its emphasis on costly subscriber acquisition methods and aggressive promotional pricing [3][6][7]. This pivot is reflected in the decline of internet net additions, with Q3 2026 seeing 10,000 additions, a 75% year-over-year decrease [3][6][7]. Prediction markets also strongly anticipate negative or near-zero net internet additions for Q1 2027, reinforcing the company's focus on profitability over volume [8].
Efficiency program and debt reduction targets underpin financial discipline. Supporting this strategy are a multi-year efficiency program and ambitious debt reduction targets. The efficiency program, announced on November 6, 2026, targets approximately $900 million in annualized cash savings by the end of 2028, achieved through operational improvements, margin enhancements, and capital expenditure efficiencies [1][2][3][4]. Simultaneously, TELUS aims to achieve a net debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3.0x or lower by year-end 2028 [1][5][2][3][4]. A 55% dividend cut further supports this objective, projected to generate approximately $2.7 billion in cumulative cash savings through 2028 [1][5][2][3][4]. These combined initiatives underscore a strong focus on financial discipline and profitability [1][3][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Q3 2026 Results Conference Callassets.ctfassets.net
  2. 2TELUS Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results, Demonstrates...finance.yahoo.com
  3. 3TELUS (TU) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptfool.com
  4. 4TELUS Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results, Demonstrates Continued Discipline in Core Telecom; Advances Transformation Strategytelus.com
  5. 5Q2 2026 Investor Conference Call Transcript Friday, July 31, 2026assets.ctfassets.net
  6. 6Q1 2026 Investor Conference Call May 8, 2026assets.ctfassets.net
  7. 7TELUS reports second quarter 2026 financial and operational results and resets quarterly dividend to support deleveraging and fuel long-term growth – Company Announcement - FT.commarkets.ft.com
  8. 8TELUS internet additions next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  9. 9TELUS CORPORATION Management’s discussion and analysis 2026 Q3assets.ctfassets.net

8. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

TELUS reported 10,000 internet net additions in Q3 2026, a 75% year-over-year decline from 40,000 in Q3 2025, attributed to a strategic shift toward premium and profitable loading [1][2]. This figure follows sequential declines in 2026, with Q1 at 21,000, Q2 at 20,000, and Q3 at 10,000, leading to year-to-date additions of 51,000, a 42% reduction from the same period in 2025 [3][4][5][6]. Prediction markets reflect this trend, with Kalshi indicating less than a 1% chance of additions above 5,000 for the next quarter, and Public.com showing 0% estimated probability for Q4 2026 additions above 5,000 through 45,000 [7][8]. In Q3 2026, TELUS incurred an $800M non-cash goodwill impairment on TELUS Health, resulting in a net loss of $660M and EPS of $0.11, missing the $0.13 consensus [1][2][9][10]. Mobile phone net additions, however, reached 84,000, surpassing analyst estimates of 45,000–55,000 [1][2][10].
In Q2 2026, TELUS announced a 55% cut in its quarterly dividend to $0.1875 per share, projecting approximately $2.7B in cumulative cash savings through 2028, allocated entirely to debt reduction [11][12][13]. This move supports the target of net debt to Adjusted EBITDA of 3.0x or lower by year-end 2028 [14][15][12][13]. S&P Global forecasts leverage at approximately 4.0x exiting 2026 and approximately 3.8x in 2027, while Morningstar DBRS anticipates gross debt/EBITDA improving to approximately 3.6x in 2026 and approximately 3.2x by 2027 [14][15][12][13]. The company also announced a $900M annualized cost savings program, expected to yield approximately $250M in 2027, with roughly 80% from the telecom segment [1][16][9]. TELUS projects approximately $500M in cumulative AI infrastructure revenue over the next three years [1][5][6][17]. Key upcoming events include Q4 2026/FY2026 earnings, expected in mid-February 2027, and Q1 2027 earnings, expected in early-to-mid May 2027 [16][18][10][5][19][20].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: September 04, 2027
  • Closes: September 04, 2027
Sources (20)
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  2. 2Telus (TU) Q3 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimatesca.finance.yahoo.com
  3. 3Q1 2026 Investor Conference Call Transcript Friday, May 8, 2026assets.ctfassets.net
  4. 4Q1 2026 Investor Conference Call May 8, 2026assets.ctfassets.net
  5. 5TELUS Q1 2026 Earnings Results & Reportmarketbeat.com
  6. 6TU Q1 FY2026 earnings callfinance.biggo.com
  7. 7TELUS internet additions next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  8. 8TELUS internet additions in Q4 2026 Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  9. 9Telus resets with focus on core telecom unit after writing down health business in mixed third quarter - The Globe and Mailtheglobeandmail.com
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  11. 11Earnings call transcript: TELUS cuts dividend and 2026 outlook in Q2 2026 | AllMind Newsallmind.ai
  12. 12https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/868675/000110465926088975/tm2615221d2_ex99-1.htmsec.gov
  13. 13TELUS reports second quarter 2026 financial and operational results and resets quarterly dividend to support deleveraging and fuel long-term growth – Company Announcement - FT.commarkets.ft.com
  14. 14Research Update: Telus Corp. Outlook Revised To S | S&P Global Ratingsspglobal.com
  15. 15Morningstar DBRS Confirms TELUS Corporation's Issuer Rating at BBB With Stable Trend | Morningstar DBRSdbrs.morningstar.com
  16. 16Q3 2026 Results Conference Callassets.ctfassets.net
  17. 17TELUS: News Release PDF (TELUS Q1 2026 News Release) | MarketScreenermarketscreener.com
  18. 18TELUS Corporation: Company Events Publications and Financial Calendar | T | CA87971M1032 | MarketScreener Canadaca.marketscreener.com
  19. 19TELUS (TSX:T) Statistics & Valuation Metricsstockanalysis.com
  20. 20TELUS (TU) Statistics & Valuationstockanalysis.com