Venture Global LNG volumes in Q1 2027

No long-duration scheduled maintenance is disclosed for either facility in Q1 2027 ^{[1][2][3][4][5][6]}. However, potential operational risks could impact production volumes for both facilities during this period. These risks include disruptions to feed gas supply from pipeline maintenance, severe winter weather events, and ongoing commissioning and rectification activities at Plaquemines Phase 1 ^{[6][9][10][11][12][13]}. Calcasieu Pass completed its major scheduled gas turbine maintenance in Q2 2026, and no further long-duration 2027 turnaround has been disclosed for this facility ^[1][2][3][4].

Calcasieu Pass faces pipeline risks; both facilities vulnerable to severe weather. ANR Pipeline maintenance events in February and September 2026 previously curtailed feed gas to Calcasieu Pass ^[9][10][11]. Similar incidents in Q1 2027 could constrain its production volumes ^[9][10][11]. Both Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines LNG also share the risk of severe winter weather events, such as Winter Storm Fern in early 2026, which caused shutdowns and reduced output at Venture Global facilities, potentially impacting Q1 2027 volumes ^{[9][12][13][11]}.

Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 is commercial, but commissioning activities pose a risk. Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 commenced commercial operations on October 31, 2026, indicating Q1 2027 volumes will primarily derive from its 24 trains ^[7][6][3][8]. While Phase 2 is targeted for mid-2027 commercial operations, its contribution to Q1 2027 production remains uncertain until commissioning is complete ^[7][6][3][8]. Venture Global's Q3 2026 earnings call noted that Phase 1 commissioning and rectification activities modestly affected Q3 2026 production, and such activities could persist into Q1 2027 ^[6][14].

Venture Global's facilities have distinct operational capacities and timelines. The Calcasieu Pass facility received Department of Energy approval in August 2025 for an uprate, increasing its peak liquefaction capacity to 12.4 MTPA, equivalent to 640.67 Bcf/yr of gas, without requiring new construction ^{[3][4][6][7][8][5]}. Plaquemines Phase 1, which includes 24 liquefaction trains, is projected to achieve full commercial operation by Q1 2027, with its Commercial Operation Date targeted for Q4 2026 ^{[9][2][10][11][12][13]}. This facility currently holds an authorized peak liquefaction capacity of 27.2 MTPA, or 1,405.33 Bcf/yr ^[1][2][10]. An application was filed on December 19, 2025, to further increase Plaquemines Phase 1's capacity to 35.0 MTPA (1,873 Bcf/yr) through control system and maintenance enhancements, also without new construction ^[1][2][10].

Q1 2027 combined capacity depends on Plaquemines Phase 1 uprate. For Q1 2027, Venture Global's combined theoretical production capacity from Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines Phase 1 is contingent on the approval status of the Plaquemines Phase 1 uprate. If Plaquemines Phase 1 operates at its pending uprated capacity of 35.0 MTPA, the combined maximum theoretical capacity with Calcasieu Pass's 12.4 MTPA would reach 47.4 MTPA, which is approximately 2,514 Bcf/yr or 628 TBtu per quarter at full utilization ^{[1][2][3][4][5]}. Alternatively, should Plaquemines Phase 1 operate at its currently authorized capacity of 27.2 MTPA, the combined maximum theoretical capacity for both facilities would be 39.6 MTPA, translating to approximately 524 TBtu per quarter ^{[1][2][3][4][5]}. It is anticipated that all Q1 2027 volumes from Venture Global will be sourced exclusively from Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines Phase 1, as Plaquemines Phase 2 is expected to remain in its commissioning phase during this period ^[14][13][15].

Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass demonstrates strong operational reliability, often exceeding its initial 10 MTPA nameplate capacity ^[3]. After completing its Lenders' Reliability Test in May 2025, the facility operated for two months above 100% nameplate capacity with zero downtime ^[4][1][5][3]. Post-commercial operations date, Calcasieu Pass has sustained production at approximately 10.5 MTPA and was subsequently uprated to 12.4 MTPA by the U.S. Department of Energy in August 2025 ^[4][5][3][1]. Its modular design provides inherent redundancy, allowing continuous production even during major maintenance activities, as evidenced in Q2 2025 when it produced above commercial obligations ^[3][6]. Although the facility experienced a significant three-year construction delay, it successfully exported over 418 commissioning cargoes before commercial operations began ^[4][7][8][9].

Cheniere's Sabine Pass maintains reliable production despite scheduled and unscheduled outages. With an aggregate nominal production capacity of approximately 30 MTPA across six trains, it has a long track record of reliable production, having exported over 3,000 cargoes since 2016 ^[2]. The facility conducts planned maintenance and experiences shorter unplanned outages. For example, in Q2 2025, Sabine Pass completed a major turnaround on trains 3 and 4, which were offline for about three weeks, safely and on budget ^[10][11]. Other incidents include a production line outage in April 2026, which was expected to recover within one to two days, and a July 2023 outage on Train 4, resolved within a few days ^[12][13]. The larger scale of Sabine Pass's trains means a single outage represents a greater percentage of total capacity compared to Calcasieu Pass's modular system ^[3][6]. Despite these events, Cheniere raised its overall 2026 production forecast, driven by increased utilization and outperformance at both Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi ^[14][15][16].

Reliable LNG export tracking leverages Kpler, EIA, and other analytical sources. Kpler offers highly accurate LNG data, claiming 98.9% accuracy, which has been rigorously backtested against EIA and customs data. This robust system monitors over 1,200 LNG vessels and 590 installations, providing real-time cargo tracking, diversion detection, and terminal-level utilization insights ^[1][2][3]. Concurrently, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes monthly U.S. LNG export data, detailing exports from Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines as distinct reporting terminals ^[6]. It is noteworthy that EIA data tends to be approximately 0.03% higher than Department of Energy (DOE) figures and does not account for about 9% feed gas shrinkage during liquefaction ^[6][7].

Recent data highlights specific terminal export volumes and operational proxies. Kpler data indicates that Plaquemines exported 590,000 metric tons in the week starting November 24, 2024, maintaining a four-week moving average of 510,000 metric tons, which annualizes to 26.52 million tons per year ^[4]. Furthermore, in a 2023 dispute involving Venture Global, Shell and BP cited Kpler and DOE data to confirm 9.96 million metric tons of LNG exported from Calcasieu Pass between October 2022 and September 2023 ^[5]. While not direct export tracking, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), as of September 22, 2026, lists Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass capacity at 1.76 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) and Plaquemines at 3.76 Bcfd, with CP2 at 3.96 Bcfd ^[8]. For a real-time proxy of production activity before cargo loading, NGI's Entropic Analytics tracks daily feedgas nominations to these terminals, showing Plaquemines at approximately 3.83 Bcf/d and Calcasieu Pass at about 1.56 Bcf/d as of July 22, 2026 ^[9][10].

Kalshi market predicts a significant drop in Q1 2027 LNG volumes. The Kalshi market forecasts Venture Global LNG volumes below 400 TBtu in Q1 2027, which is a notable decrease from the approximately 470 TBtu quarterly average observed in 2026 ^{[1][5][6][7][3][4][8]}. This projected decline is largely attributed to potential operational disruptions during the transition of Plaquemines Phase 1 to commercial operations. Plaquemines Phase 1 achieved its Commercial Operations Date (COD) on October 31, 2026, and the shift from commissioning cargoes to contracted sales volumes could lead to a temporary dip in volumes or operational disruption in Q1-Q2 2027 ^[1][2][5]. Furthermore, Q1 2027 volumes are expected to originate primarily from Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines (Phases 1 and 2), as the CP2 project's first LNG is not targeted until July 2027, thereby limiting the total achievable volume for that quarter ^[1][9].

Operational and commercial challenges could further reduce Venture Global's output. Additional potential catalysts for diminished volumes include recurring industry maintenance, such as the ANR Pipeline maintenance in February 2026 that impacted feed gas deliveries to Calcasieu Pass, and broader U.S. LNG feed gas volume suppression experienced in May 2026 due to maintenance at other terminals ^[6][7]. Venture Global is also currently involved in arbitration claims from two Calcasieu Pass customers seeking damages exceeding $2.4 billion, with a hearing for another case anticipated in late November 2026. These claims could potentially affect cargo delivery schedules or overall operational stability ^[3][4].

Global and domestic market factors also influence future LNG volumes. Global events, including the Iran conflict and Qatar's LNG export halt in March 2026, have contributed to a tightened global LNG supply and introduced ongoing shipping and logistics risks. Approximately 20% of the world's LNG trade remains exposed to disruptions in key waterways ^{[10][11][8][7]}. Domestically, U.S. LNG feed gas supply has been running below late-2025 highs, with natural gas production expected to increase by only 2.6% by 2027, while LNG export demand is projected to grow by 8.1% ^[12].

Venture Global's 2027 outlook forecasts 575-625 total cargoes, including 10-20 cargoes from CP2 during Q3 2027 as production begins mid-year 2027 ^{[1][2][3][4][5][6]}. Q1 2027 LNG volumes are expected in a similar or slightly higher range than the 465.8 TBtu (124 cargoes) reported in Q3 2026, following Plaquemines Phase 1 commercial operations achieved on October 31, 2026 ^{[2][4][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]}. Plaquemines Phase 2 commercial operations remain targeted for mid-2027 ^[2][4][13]. First LNG production from CP2 was advanced to July 2027, approximately 24 months after Phase 1 FID ^{[2][14][4][15][5][16]}. The company expects cargo counts to more than double from 380 in 2025 to 875-925 in 2028, further growing to 1,125-1,175 cargoes in 2029 ^[3]. Full-year 2027 production and pricing guidance is anticipated during the Q4 2026 earnings call, estimated for March 11, 2027 ^{[1][2][3][4][5][6]}.

The company raised its full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $10.0B-$10.3B from $8.7B-$9.1B ^{[1][2][3][4][17]}. A $1/MMBtu change in liquefaction fees impacts 2027 EBITDA by $600M-$650M ^{[1][2][3][4][17]}. S&P Global Ratings revised Venture Global's outlook to stable from negative on November 2, 2026, projecting leverage of ~5x in 2026, weakening to ~8x in 2027 ^[18]. Venture Global executed 2.0 MTPA of new or increased 20-year LNG offtake agreements during and after Q3 2026, alongside a five-year LNG supply deal with Vitol for approximately 1.5 MTPA starting in 2026 ^{[2][4][8][19]}. Contracted capacity percentages show 74% for 2027, 55% for 2028, and 42% for 2029 ^[3]. The company also signed framework agreements for potential data center expansion, targeting 5 GW by end of 2031, with the first 250 MW expected in late 2028 ^[2][4][20]. Wells Fargo noted securing turbine slots for 2029-30 delivery could be worth approximately $5 per share ^[2][4][20].