What will Palantir say during their next earnings call?
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Only one government contract exceeding $50 million was identified recently.
- US officials confirm AI use for target identification in Iran conflicts.
- Alex Karp emphasizes "The Technological Republic" in recent public interviews.
- Research found no specific analyst focus on international versus domestic growth.
- Market probability saw a 23-point spike on April 28, 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue guidance | 69.0% | 68.9% | Companies consistently provide revenue guidance during earnings calls to inform investors. |
| Iran / Iranian | 84.0% | 78.9% | Geopolitical events affecting national security are often discussed due to government contracts. |
| Stellantis | 63.0% | 60.2% | Palantir's significant partnership with Stellantis makes it a relevant topic for updates. |
| Nvidia | 58.0% | 46.4% | Nvidia's leadership in AI makes its impact on Palantir's offerings a relevant discussion point. |
| USDA | 50.0% | 47.1% | Palantir's substantial contract with the USDA is a key growth driver. |
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 28, 2026: 23.0pp spike
Price increased from 46.0% to 69.0%
Outcome: Revenue guidance
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if "USDA" (including its plural or possessive forms, but no other grammatical/tense inflections) is spoken by any Palantir Technologies Inc. representative during their next earnings call, including the Q&A; otherwise, it resolves to NO.
Resolution is primarily based on video of the earnings call, with transcripts used if video is inconclusive, and outcome verified from Palantir's investor relations. The market opened April 27, 2026, at 4:00 PM EDT, closing early if the event occurs, or by September 30, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT if it doesn't, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foundry | $0.93 | $0.13 | 93% |
| International | $0.90 | $0.13 | 87% |
| Iran / Iranian | $0.88 | $0.22 | 84% |
| Warp Speed | $0.90 | $0.18 | 81% |
| Partnership | $0.83 | $0.24 | 75% |
| Revenue guidance | $0.75 | $0.34 | 69% |
| Israel | $0.76 | $0.35 | 64% |
| Stellantis | $0.61 | $0.52 | 63% |
| Nvidia | $0.61 | $0.51 | 58% |
| USDA | $0.62 | $0.52 | 50% |
| Automotive | $0.31 | $0.83 | 31% |
| Commercial Growth | $0.29 | $0.76 | 29% |
| Gotham Platform | $0.17 | $0.89 | 24% |
| Polymarket | $0.34 | $0.77 | 22% |
| Government Contract | $0.17 | $0.87 | 19% |
| Healthcare | $0.66 | $0.35 | 0% |
| Lethal | $0.87 | $0.23 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What Large Palantir Contracts Exceed $50 Million?
| Largest Government Contract | $300 million with U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) (April 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Automotive Sector Large Contracts | No specific contracts valued over $50 million identified (March 2026) [2] |
| Healthcare Sector Large Contracts | No specific contracts valued over $50 million identified (February 2026) [3] |
Sources (4)
- 1Agriculture Department kicks off $300M Palantir deal on IT, national security work | FedScoopfedscoop.com
- 2Palantir Technologies Announces the Renewal and Expansion of Its Partnership With Stellantis for an Additional Five Yearsbusinesswire.com
- 3Cognizant partners with Palantir to Accelerate AI-Driven Modernization in Healthcare and Enterprise Operationsprnewswire.com
- 4Palantir Secures $4 Million Contract with New York City Public Hospitals – Health Tech News - UBOSubos.tech
6. What Was Analyst Focus on Palantir's International vs. Domestic Growth?
| Latest Earnings Call | Q4 2025 (February 2, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Prior Earnings Call | Q3 2025 (November 4, 2025) [1] |
| Q1 2025 Revenue Increase | 39% [2] |
7. What Is Palantir's AI Role in Iran-Related Defense Contracts?
| AI Identified Targets | 1,000 targets in Iran strikes [1] |
|---|---|
| Pentagon AI Contract | $1.3 billion [2] |
| DoD AI Contract Extension | $2.5 billion [3] |
Sources (10)
- 1Pentagon Used Anthropic’s Claude AI and Palantir Maven to Identify 1,000 Targets in Iran Strikesthedefensenews.com
- 2Trump Praises Palantir as Iran War Highlights $1.3B Pentagon AI Contract and Rising Lobbying Spend | Quiver Quantitativequiverquant.com
- 3Palantir Wins $2.5B DoD AI Contract Extension: Government Revenue to Double | Alpha Stocks Insightalphastocksinsight.com
- 4America’s Warriors Are Obliterating Iranian Terror Regime with Unrelenting Force – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 5US objectives in Iran have not changed, Hegseth says | Reutersreuters.com
- 6Operation Epic Fury and International Law - United States Department of Statestate.gov
- 7U.S. Intelligence: 50% of Iran’s Missiles and 60% of IRGC Navy Remain Operational After 38-Day Warthedefensenews.com
- 8Pentagon praises Palantir tech for battlefield strike speed • The Registertheregister.com
- 9Palantir $619M Army Contract — Defense AI Market | SectorPunksectorpunk.com
- 10Pentagon Expands Use of Palantir AI in New Defense Contract | Military.commilitary.prod.acquia-sites.com
8. Is Operation Warp Speed's Data Infrastructure Praised for Current Crises?
| OWS Data Infrastructure Commendation | No explicit retrospective praise or call for similar platform for current health crises (Past 6 months) [1] |
|---|---|
| OWS General Operational Praise | Offers a roadmap for improving efficiency of bench to bedside medical advances [1] |
| Current Data Modernization Focus | HHS progress on TEFCA and CDC's One CDC Data Platform [2] |
Sources (3)
- 1Operation Warp Speed offers a roadmap for improving the efficiency of bench to bedside medical advancespmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- 2TEFCA™, America’s National Interoperability Network, Reaches Nearly 500 Million Health Records Exchanged as HHS Leverages Technology and AI to Lower Costs and Reduce Burden | HHS.govhhs.gov
- 3Notable Data Modernization Milestones: 2019-2024cdc.gov
9. What New Philosophical Frameworks Does Alex Karp Emphasize?
| Key Philosophical Framework | The Technological Republic, outlined in a 22-point manifesto [1] |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth Strategy | Focus on "inexplicable growth in revenue" not necessarily tied to proportional customer growth [2] |
| AI Workforce Impact | Identifies "two types" of individuals who will survive and thrive in an AI-dominated world [3] |
Sources (5)
- 1Read Palantir's 22-Point Manifesto Generating Buzz - Business Insiderbusinessinsider.com
- 2Palantir CEO Alex Karp Says ‘Inexplicable Growth in Revenue, but Not Inexplicable Growth in Customers’ Is Ahead. What Does That Mean for PLTR Stock?barchart.com
- 3Palantir CEO Says Only Two Types Will Survive AI (And Elite Degrees Aren’t One of Them)! | by Tasmia Sharmin | Predict | Mar, 2026 | Mediummedium.com
- 4a16z Podcast - Palantir CEO Alex Karp on the Zero-Sum AI Race Transcript and Discussionpodscripts.co
- 5TBPN Live - FULL INTERVIEW: Alex Karp on AI, Job Loss, and the Future of Work Transcript and Discussionpodscripts.co