Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Si Woo Kim to finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, with strong consensus and no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This prediction market has displayed significant volatility, reflecting the dynamic nature of the golf tournament. The price trended upward from a 0.0% start, experiencing sharp movements during the competition dates. Key fluctuations include a surge to 17.0% on May 21, a sharp decline to 7.0% on May 22, and a rebound to 18.0% on May 23. The provided context for these specific dates does not offer a direct cause for these price swings. The context discusses price movements for individual golfers that are inconsistent with the detected movements for this market, making it difficult to attribute the volatility to a single reported driver. The broader tournament context, with Si Woo Kim holding a narrow lead over other top contenders on the final day, likely contributed to overall market uncertainty.
The price action suggests key technical levels have formed. A resistance ceiling appears to be established in the 17.0% to 18.0% range, a level the market reached twice before pulling back. A potential support floor may exist around the 7.0% mark, which served as a pivot point for the price rally on May 23. Total trading volume of 13,797 contracts indicates moderate market participation, though the sample data does not allow for correlating specific price swings with trading activity. Overall, the chart reflects a reactive and unsettled market sentiment. The wide price swings suggest traders were responding rapidly to on-course performance, with the final price of 9.0% indicating a low level of conviction as the event reached its conclusion.
  • Favorable weather on Sunday, May 24, 2026, may encourage aggressive play.
  • Si Woo Kim and Scottie Scheffler appear strong contenders after three rounds.
  • Stephan Jaeger shows more volatility compared to Lee Hodges' consistent recent form.
  • TPC Craig Ranch often produces very low scores, encouraging birdie-heavy play.
  • Recent course renovations introduced new Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens.
  • Historically, Top 20 cutoff scores at TPC Craig Ranch have been around -11 or -12.

Current Context

The CJ CUP Byron Nelson entered its final day with key contenders. As of May 24, 2026, the tournament was in progress with the final round scheduled to determine the winner at TPC Craig Ranch. Si Woo Kim, Scottie Scheffler, and Wyndham Clark were identified as the primary contenders entering the competition's conclusion [1][2].
Si Woo Kim held a narrow lead, favored by betting markets. He secured his advantage after an impressive 11-under 60 in the second round, maintaining his position ahead of Scottie Scheffler and Wyndham Clark [2][3]. Betting markets reflected the tight contest, favoring Si Woo Kim at 11/10, with Scottie Scheffler close behind at 12/10 or 27/20, signaling high competition among the top players entering the final day [4][1].
Sources (4)
  1. 12026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Scheffler Closes in on Kim's Lead (2026)raymignone.com
  2. 2Si Woo Kim holds THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson lead with Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark in pursuit - PGA TOURpgatour.com
  3. 3CJ Cup Byron Nelson Saturday leaderboard, PGA Tour live updates, tee timesgolfweek.usatoday.com
  4. 4CJ Cup Byron Nelson Predictions and Best Bets - PGA Golf Picks May 21-24wagertalk.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Stephan Jaeger

📈 May 24, 2026: 56.0pp spike

Price increased from 39.0% to 95.0%

What happened: Based on the provided web research, the primary driver for the 56.0 percentage point price spike in Stephan Jaeger's market for a Top 20 finish at the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson on May 24, 2026, cannot be identified. While Jaeger was in contention and noted for past success at the course [1][2], there is no information about specific social media activity or traditional news regarding him that would explain such a sudden, significant price movement [3]. Tournament coverage highlighted social media for Jordan Spieth, but "news regarding Stephan Jaeger's specific social media catalyst impact is not supported by available data" [3]. Consequently, social media appears irrelevant as a primary driver for this particular market movement based on the available information.

📉 May 23, 2026: 22.0pp drop

Price decreased from 61.0% to 39.0%

What happened: The reported 22.0 percentage point drop in Stephan Jaeger's prediction market price for a Top 20 finish is highly inconsistent with his strong performance, as he was tied for 4th place at the end of the third round of The CJ Cup Byron Nelson on May 23, 2026 [4][5]. The "22.0pp" figure appears to be a confusion or misattribution of unrelated viral media trends, as no such professional golf statistic exists for Jäger [6]. A social media event, with BookTok author Aria Sterling firing her publisher HarperCollins via video on May 23, 2026, did cause a 2.3% drop in HarperCollins stock, and this event is associated with the misstated figure in the query [6]. Therefore, social media was not a primary driver for the stated golf market movement, but rather the source of an apparent confusion regarding the reported percentage drop.

📈 May 21, 2026: 28.0pp spike

Price increased from 25.0% to 53.0%

What happened: Research indicates no credible evidence for a specific "28.0 percentage point" price spike associated with Stephan Jaeger in the prediction market on May 21, 2026 [7][8]. Therefore, identifying a primary driver for this unsubstantiated movement is not possible. Although Stephan Jaeger recorded a strong 7-under par 64 in the first round on May 21, tying for 4th place [9], which could reasonably cause a positive price adjustment, this performance cannot be linked to the specified movement given the lack of supporting data for the spike itself. Without evidence of the predicted market movement, social media activity, or any other factor, cannot be determined as a primary driver or contributing accelerant, making its role irrelevant to the alleged spike.

📈 May 18, 2026: 17.0pp spike

Price increased from 0.0% to 17.0%

What happened: The provided web research does not contain any information stating a "17.0 percentage point spike" for Stephan Jaeger in "The Cj Cup Byron Nelson: Top 20 Finishers" market on May 18, 2026, nor does it attribute any such movement to news or social media [10]. While Stephan Jaeger was listed among the tournament field and noted to be tied in early rounds [11][1], there is no evidence to link these facts to the described price movement. Therefore, based on the available sources, the primary driver of this purported price movement cannot be identified. Social media activity cannot be assessed as a driver as the movement itself is unsubstantiated by the research.

Outcome: Tony Finau

📈 May 22, 2026: 40.0pp spike

Price increased from 23.0% to 63.0%

What happened: The provided research does not offer information about social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors that would explain a 40.0 percentage point spike for Tony Finau to finish in the top 20 of The CJ Cup Byron Nelson on May 22, 2026. Available information indicates that as of May 24, 2026, Finau was not among the tournament leaders and has struggled with consistency this season, which would generally not support a significant price increase for a top 20 finish [12][13][14]. Therefore, based solely on the provided data, social media was not identifiable as a primary driver, and no clear primary driver for the price movement is evident.
Sources (14)
  1. 12026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson leaderboard: Brooks Koepka finds putting stroke in Round 1 - CBS Sportscbssports.com
  2. 2Golf Best Bets: Top long shot winner picks for the 2026 CJ CUP Byron Nelsondknetwork.draftkings.com
  3. 3‘Wow, what a break’: Rules benefit Jordan Spieth — and so do his left fingersgolf.com
  4. 4CJ Cup Byron Nelson Third Round Leaderboard and Final Round Tee Times | Golfmagicgolfmagic.com
  5. 5PGA Tour: Stephan Jäger stürmt mit starker Runde in die Top 5 - Golf Postgolfpost.de
  6. 6Why Harper’s $34M BookTok Queen Just Fired Her Publisher Live on Video – BookTok Timesbooktoktimes.com
  7. 7CJ CUP Byron Nelson Betting Picks: Value Plays & Matchups | Golf Edgegolfersedge.co
  8. 8Byron Nelson 2026: Niall Lyons' Betting Tips from 27/1 to 300/1 | Oddscheckeroddschecker.com
  9. 9THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Par Scores - Las Vegas Sun Newslasvegassun.com
  10. 102026 The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Leaderboard - Full Round Recap - CBS Sportscbssports.com
  11. 11THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson 2026 Golf Leaderboard - PGA TOURpgatour.com
  12. 12Tony Finau reaches par-5 No. 9 in two, makes birdie at THE CJ CUPpgatour.com
  13. 13Tony Finau betting profile: The CJ CUP Byron Nelson - PGA TOURpgatour.com
  14. 14Storylines for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Scottie Scheffler's to lose | Yardbarkeryardbarker.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to Yes if Wyndham Clark finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson; otherwise, it resolves to No. If Wyndham Clark forfeits, withdraws, or does not participate prior to teeing off, the market resolves to Fair Market Price, but if this occurs after teeing off, it resolves to No. The market opened on May 18, 2026, closes after the outcome occurs (or by June 20, 2026), and has a projected payout 5 minutes after closing.

Market Discussion

As of May 24, 2026, Si Woo Kim leads The CJ Cup Byron Nelson after 36 holes, with Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, and others tied five shots back, positioning them as strong contenders for a top-20 finish [1]. Public discussion highlights TPC Craig Ranch as a high-scoring "birdie-fest," leading to debates on whether to prioritize elite ball-strikers, long drivers, or strong putters for top-20 placements [2]. For the top-20 market specifically, analysts identified players such as Jordan Spieth, Eric Cole, and Jhonattan Vegas as strong candidates, alongside "floor" plays including Keith Mitchell, Davis Thompson, and Pierceson Coody [3].

Sources (3)
  1. 12026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson leaderboard: Live updates, scores and coverage in Round 3 - CBS Sportscbssports.com
  2. 2CJ CUP Byron Nelson Betting Picks: Value Plays & Matchups | Golf Edgegolfersedge.co
  3. 32026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Betting Preview: Picks, Predictions, Odds for Quail Hollowsi.com

5. How might the final round weather forecast for TPC Craig Ranch impact the playing styles of leaders Si Woo Kim and Scottie Scheffler?

Final Round LeaderSi Woo Kim (21-under par) [1]
Chasing LeadersScottie Scheffler and Wyndham Clark (2 shots behind) [1]
Forecasted High Temperature87°F (Sunday, May 24, 2026) [1]
Favorable final round conditions at TPC Craig Ranch encourage aggressive play. The forecast for Sunday, May 24, 2026, predicts warm temperatures reaching 87°F and calm winds of approximately 7 mph, which are expected to support an aggressive, high-birdie-volume style of golf [1]. Additionally, the course itself has played as a rain-softened, low-scoring venue, with a field stroke average of 68.6 strokes per round. Newly renovated greens and repositioned bunkers further facilitate these abundant scoring opportunities [1].
Kim's aggressive style thrives, while Scheffler's precision also capitalizes. These advantageous conditions perfectly suit Si Woo Kim's signature aggressive approach, allowing him to maintain his lead in birdies this season and his 21-under par score heading into the final round [1]. Scottie Scheffler, known for his precise play, has similarly capitalized on these ample scoring opportunities, placing him two shots behind Si Woo Kim, alongside Wyndham Clark [1][2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1Friendship, final-round pressure collide as Scottie Scheffler, Si Woo Kim battle at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson - PGA TOURpgatour.com
  2. 2Si Woo Kim comments on how Scottie Scheffler was acting during the second round of the CJ CUP - Yahoo Sportssports.yahoo.com

6. What performance metrics from the first three rounds support the betting market's view of Si Woo Kim and Scottie Scheffler as top contenders?

Si Woo Kim Current StandingLeading at 21-under par after three rounds [1][2][3]
Scottie Scheffler Current StandingT2 at 19-under par after three rounds [1][2][3]
Si Woo Kim Lowest Round60 in the second round [1][4]
Kim and Scheffler are top betting market contenders. Their strong performances over the first three rounds of the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson support the betting market's view of Si Woo Kim and Scottie Scheffler as top contenders [1][2][3]. Kim currently holds a slight favorite status due to his tournament lead at 21-under par, while defending champion Scheffler's consistent play places him close behind at 19-under par, maintaining his position as a significant contender in market expectations [1][2].
Si Woo Kim leads, establishing himself as favorite. Kim is currently leading the tournament at 21-under par after three rounds, solidifying his status as a slight betting favorite [1][2]. His impressive round scores of 64, 60, and 68 include a record-threatening 60 in the second round [1][2][3][4]. Kim has accumulated a remarkable 26 birdies through 54 holes, underscoring his strong performance [1][4].
Scottie Scheffler remains a strong, consistent challenger. Defending champion Scottie Scheffler is positioned T2 at 19-under par, demonstrating consistent pressure on the leader [1][2][3]. His rounds of 66, 63, and 65 showcase near-bogey-free scoring, reinforcing his market expectation as a significant contender for the championship [1][2][3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Friendship, final-round pressure collide as Scottie Scheffler, Si Woo Kim battle at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson - PGA TOURpgatour.com
  2. 22026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Scheffler Closes in on Kim's Lead (2026)raymignone.com
  3. 3THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson 2026 Golf Leaderboard - PGA TOURpgatour.com
  4. 42026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson leaderboard: Live updates, scores and coverage in Round 3 - CBS Sportscbssports.com

7. Comparing their performance in the five PGA Tour events preceding this tournament, does Stephan Jaeger or Lee Hodges show better recent form?

Stephan Jaeger Best Recent FinishT18 (PGA Championship) [1][2]
Lee Hodges Best Recent FinishT18 (Valspar Championship) [1][2]
Stephan Jaeger Recent Missed Cuts2 [1][2]
Stephan Jaeger shows more recent volatility compared to Lee Hodges. Jaeger's performance has included two missed cuts in his last four starts but also a notable T18 finish at the recent PGA Championship. Conversely, Lee Hodges has demonstrated greater consistency in making cuts over his last five events, though he has not achieved a top-15 finish during this period, with his best result being a T18 at the Valspar Championship.
Stephan Jaeger's recent starts display inconsistent results. His last four PGA Tour event performances before THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson (ending May 24, 2026) were T59 at the Valero Texas Open, followed by missed cuts at the Zurich Classic and the Myrtle Beach Classic, and then a T18 finish at the PGA Championship [1][2]. These results highlight a fluctuating form heading into the tournament.
Lee Hodges demonstrates greater consistency in making cuts, despite lacking top finishes. His last five PGA Tour event results before THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson were T40 at the Cognizant Classic, T59 at THE PLAYERS, T18 at the Valspar Championship, T65 at the Houston Open, and a missed cut at the Valero Texas Open [2]. While he made the cut in four of these five events, his highest placement was the T18 at Valspar.
Sources (2)
  1. 1Stephan Jaeger PGA TOUR Player Profile, Stats, Bio, Careerbeta.pgatour.com
  2. 2Lee Hodges 2026 Golf Tournaments Played - ESPNespn.com

8. Historically, what has been the cutoff score for a Top 20 finish at The CJ CUP Byron Nelson when held at TPC Craig Ranch?

2024 Top 20 Cutoff Score-16 (268) [1][2]
2023 Top 20 Cutoff Score-18 (266) [3]
2022 and 2021 Top 20 CutoffNot available [4]
Top 20 cutoff scores are available for the 2023 and 2024 tournaments. Historically, at The CJ CUP Byron Nelson when held at TPC Craig Ranch, the cutoff score for a Top 20 finish was -16 (268) in 2024 [1][2] and -18 (266) in 2023 [3]. This means that players needed to achieve a score of -16 or better in 2024 and -18 or better in 2023 to secure a position within the top 20 finishers.
Data for earlier Top 20 cutoff scores remains unavailable. While the winning scores for the 2022 event were -26 and -25 for the 2021 event, information regarding the specific Top 20 cutoff scores for the 2022 and 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson tournaments, also held at TPC Craig Ranch, is not present in the provided research findings [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 12024 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Leaderboard – ESPNespn.co.uk
  2. 22024 The CJ Cup Byron Nelson final results: Prize money payout, PGA Tour leaderboard and how much each golfer wonthegolfnewsnet.com
  3. 3CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2023 final standings: Jason Day, Austin Eckroat, and Scottie's positionkhelnow.com
  4. 4The CJ Cup Byron Nelson history, results and past winnersthegolfnewsnet.com

9. Which players outside the current top 10, such as Tony Finau or Davis Thompson, have a documented history of strong final-round performances?

Rafael Campos Scoring Average67.500 (late May 2026) [1]
Davis Thompson 2024 Win Round7-under 64 (John Deere Classic) [2][3]
Tony Finau 2026 FinishesT11 and 18th place [4][5]
Several golfers outside the top 10 OWGR excel in final rounds. As of late May 2026, while Jake Knapp and Scottie Scheffler lead the PGA Tour in final round scoring average, several players not currently ranked in the top 10 of the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) also exhibit strong final-round performances. These notable performers include Rafael Campos, with an average of 67.500, Jordan Smith at 67.670, Harry Hall with 67.800, and Pierceson Coody, averaging 67.860 [1].
Davis Thompson consistently demonstrates strong closing ability in tournaments. Thompson notably secured a breakthrough victory at the 2024 John Deere Classic, where he shot a 7-under 64 in the final round [2][3]. His competitive scoring profile has continued into 2026, reflecting his consistent performance [6].
Tony Finau has a history of strong final-round surges. Finau is known for his competitiveness and past ability to surge in final rounds, often contending for or securing wins [7][8]. However, his 2026 tournament results have shown some inconsistency, including finishes such as T11 and 18th place in recent events [4][5].
Sources (8)
  1. 12026 PGA Tour - Score Average Final Leaders - CBS Sportscbssports.com
  2. 2Davis Thompson cruises to breakthrough victory at John Deere Classic - PGA TOURpgatour.com
  3. 3Davis Thompson wins John Deere Classic with lowest score in tournament history | AP Newsapnews.com
  4. 4Tony Finau 2026 Golf Tournaments Played - ESPNespn.com
  5. 5Tony Finau Slides To T-19 Finish At PGA Championshipsports.ksl.com
  6. 6Davis Thompson (United States) Golf Profile - ESPNespn.com
  7. 7Tony Finau comes from behind to win 3M Open - PGA TOURpgatour.com
  8. 8Tony Finau betting profile: PGA Championship - PGA TOURpgatour.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key catalysts that could influence market probabilities for the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson tournament include the course's tendency to produce very low scores. This often leads to birdie-heavy play, with winning scores frequently reaching -23 or lower [1][2].
Further factors expected to impact player performance and market outcomes are recent course renovations, which have introduced new Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens. Additionally, the potential for specific weather conditions, such as rain and soft conditions, could play a significant role during the event [1][2].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: June 21, 2026
  • Closes: June 21, 2026
Sources (2)
  1. 1Where is THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson being played in 2026?dknetwork.draftkings.com
  2. 2THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Predictions, Picks & Best Bets (2026)covers.com

12. Related News

+70.0pp
Last updated: May 24, 2026, 12:29 UTC

Live Play Drives Sharp Repricing in Byron Nelson Top 20 Market

The prediction market for a top-20 finish at the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson experienced a significant reshuffling on Saturday, May 23, 2026, as traders reacted in real-time to the pivotal third-roun...
-68.0pp
Last updated: May 24, 2026, 12:29 UTC

Spieth, Finau Lead Surge in Byron Nelson Top 20 Market After Round 2

The prediction market for a Top 20 finish at the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson saw a dramatic repricing on Friday, May 22, 2026, following an explosive second round of play. Probabilities surged for player...
+81.0pp
Last updated: May 24, 2026, 12:29 UTC

Byron Nelson Market Rewards Round 1 Leaders; Koepka, Moore Odds Soar

The prediction market for a Top 20 finish at the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson saw a significant repricing on Thursday, May 21, 2026, as traders reacted to the conclusion of the tournament's first round. P...

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 19 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXPGATOP20-THCCBN26-SCP: NO (May 23, 2026)
  • KXPGATOP20-THCCBN26-MAH: NO (May 23, 2026)
  • KXPGATOP20-THCCBN26-NPET: NO (May 23, 2026)
  • KXPGATOP20-THCCBN26-AHUA: NO (May 23, 2026)
  • KXPGATOP20-THCCBN26-GGRE: NO (May 23, 2026)