U.S. Open: Round 1 Scores
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect R1: Miles Russell under 75.5 strokes, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Since last update (about an hour ago): Chase Kyes under 77.5 strokes: model declined 39.5pp as the market-led edge flipped significantly.
- Preston Stout under 76.5 strokes: model-led 39.5pp drop widened the edge versus market.
- Headline model probability fell 13.5pp, widening the edge to -13.4pp against the market.
- Harris English under 74.5 strokes: model dropped 11.2pp as the market-led edge flipped notably.
- Shinnecock Hills' historical data indicates exceptionally difficult first-round scoring.
- Shooting under low score thresholds at Shinnecock Hills appears consistently challenging.
- Rory McIlroy struggled significantly at Shinnecock Hills, missing the cut in 2018.
- Jon Rahm also experienced significant difficulty, missing the cut at Shinnecock in 2018.
- Scottie Scheffler's market position is bolstered by elite Strokes Gained statistics.
- The U.S. Open first round occurs on Thursday, June 18, 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | — | — | Insufficient data |
Current Context
The 2026 U.S. Open golf championship commenced at Shinnecock Hills. The 126th U.S. Open is taking place at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York, from June 18 to June 21, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. This championship features a field of 156 players competing for a total prize purse of $22,500,000, with the winner's share set at $4,500,000 [^][^]. As of June 18, 2026, Round 1 is currently in progress, and official scores for all players are not yet finalized as the tournament has just begun [^][^][^][^].
J.J. Spaun returns as the tournament's defending champion. He won the previous 125th U.S. Open, held in 2025 at Oakmont Country Club [^][^]. Several highly-ranked players are also competing, with skill estimates in strokes gained as follows: Scottie Scheffler is ranked 1st with 2.85, Rory McIlroy is 2nd with 2.11, and Jon Rahm is 3rd with 2.09. Following them are Cameron Young (4th with 1.83), Matt Fitzpatrick (5th with 1.82), Tommy Fleetwood (6th with 1.82), and Xander Schauffele (7th with 1.72) [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market experienced a dramatic upward trend, beginning at a 0.0% probability and quickly establishing a trading range in the mid-to-high 40s. The most significant price movement was a sharp 49.0 percentage point spike on June 16. This surge directly followed what appears to be the official announcement of Scottie Scheffler's Round 1 tee time for the championship. This news release likely acted as a catalyst, transforming a dormant market into an active one and causing a fundamental re-evaluation of the contract's probability.
Following the initial spike, the price has consolidated slightly, trading between 46.0% and a peak of 54.0%, suggesting a potential resistance level near the highs and a support level in the mid-40s. Trading volume, which was nonexistent before the price surge, became substantial on June 18, indicating high conviction among traders at these new price levels. The sustained high price and significant trading volume suggest that market sentiment has shifted decisively. The market now assigns a substantial probability to the event in question, a sharp contrast to the initial 0.0% valuation before the tee times were known.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: R1: Xander Schauffele under 72.5 strokes
📈 June 17, 2026: 45.0pp spike
Price increased from 0.0% to 45.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 45.0 percentage point spike on June 17, 2026, for "R1: Xander Schauffele under 72.5 strokes" was a traditional news analysis. A PGA TOUR article titled "Horses for Courses" published on June 17, 2026, highlighted Xander Schauffele as a strong candidate due to his consistency in majors and suitability for the "windy, difficult Shinnecock Hills" [^]. This positive pre-tournament assessment, released a day before the 2026 U.S. Open Round 1 officially began on June 18, 2026 [^], likely increased bettors' confidence in him scoring under 72.5 strokes. Based on the provided sources, social media activity was irrelevant.
Outcome: R1: Scottie Scheffler under 71.5 strokes
📈 June 16, 2026: 49.0pp spike
Price increased from 0.0% to 49.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 49.0 percentage point spike on June 16, 2026, appears to be the official announcement of Scottie Scheffler's Round 1 tee time for the 2026 U.S. Open [^][^][^]. This traditional news, released two days before the tournament's start, likely catalyzed a significant market re-evaluation, aligning probabilities more closely with Scheffler's status as the world's #1 ranked golfer [^]. No specific social media activity or detailed practice round reports explicitly explaining such a drastic movement were found within the provided sources [7-11]. Social media was irrelevant to this price movement.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Jon Rahm records under 72.5 strokes in Round 1 of the 2026 U.S. Open, and "No" if he records 72.5 strokes or more. Trading opens on June 16, 2026, at 1:00 pm EDT and closes after Round 1 is completed, or by July 3, 2026, at 10:00 pm EDT. If Jon Rahm does not complete Round 1, the market will resolve to a fair market price at the time of his withdrawal.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|
Market Discussion
The 2026 U.S. Open is scheduled to commence on June 18, 2026, at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York [^][^][^]. As of June 18, 2026, the first round is either just beginning or in progress, so no finalized Round 1 scores are currently available [^][^][^]. Ahead of the tournament, prediction markets and rankings widely identify Scottie Scheffler as the favorite to win, followed by Rory McIlroy, with social media commentary highlighting anticipated challenging conditions at Shinnecock Hills [^][^][^][^].
5. How do weather conditions and course setup at Shinnecock Hills typically impact scoring in the first round of a U.S. Open?
| 1986 First-Round Avg Score | 77.88 [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| 2018 First-Round Avg Score | 76.47 [^][^][^][^] |
| Wind Speed for Difficult Play | Exceeds 20 mph [^][^][^] |
Shinnecock Hills consistently produces high first-round scores at the U.S. Open. The course is renowned for yielding some of the highest first-round scoring averages in championship history, primarily due to its significant exposure to wind and its inherently challenging green complexes [^][^][^][^]. A key factor in scoring volatility is the dynamic interaction between wind and temperature, which can dramatically alter green firmness and speed throughout the day [^][^]. This has historically resulted in elevated scores, with first-round averages reaching 77.88 in 1986 and 76.47 in 2018 [^][^][^][^].
The course's challenging setup amplifies difficulty, especially with strong winds. Shinnecock typically features tight fairways, penal rough, and small, contoured greens [^][^][^]. These conditions become exceptionally difficult for players to manage when sustained winds exceed 20 mph, often forcing cautious aiming or risking severe penalties for missed targets [^][^][^]. Furthermore, players with afternoon tee times generally face significantly firmer and faster conditions as prevailing sea breezes build and dry out the greens over the course of the day [^][^]. While player skill rankings offer a general understanding of top players' abilities, these are season-long estimates and do not directly account for the specific impacts of such weather conditions or course setup on scoring at Shinnecock Hills [^].
6. What key performance indicators, such as strokes gained statistics, support the market's Round 1 scoring line for Scottie Scheffler?
| Strokes Gained: Total Rank | 1st (2.162) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green Rank | 1st (1.696) [^][^] |
| 2026 Round 1 Scoring Average | 69.92 (51st on tour) [^] |
Scottie Scheffler’s market position is bolstered by elite Strokes Gained statistics. His strong market position for Round 1 scoring in the 2026 U.S. Open is primarily supported by his leading performance in key Strokes Gained statistics on the PGA Tour. He currently ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total, averaging 2.162 strokes gained per round, and also leads in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green with 1.696 strokes gained [^][^][^][^][^]. His 2026 performance profile indicates improved driving distance and significantly better putting, gaining over 0.5 shots per round, both critical for his Round 1 scoring projections [^][^][^]. Furthermore, Scheffler demonstrates high consistency, with 24 top-10 finishes and 7 victories during the 2026 season [^][^][^].
Despite overall excellence, Scheffler exhibits a notable Round 1 scoring disparity. A notable aspect of Scheffler's 2026 PGA Tour season is a distinct round-by-round scoring disparity. His Round 1 scoring average is 69.92, which ranks 51st on tour and is notably higher than his overall actual scoring average of 68.31 [^]. This suggests a tendency for slower tournament starts, as his performance improves considerably in subsequent rounds, averaging 68.42 in Round 2, 67.42 in Round 3, and 67.50 in the Final Round [^].
7. How do Rory McIlroy's and Jon Rahm's past performances in U.S. Opens compare, particularly on difficult, links-style courses like Shinnecock Hills?
| Rory McIlroy U.S. Open Win | 2011 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Jon Rahm U.S. Open Win | 2021 [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Rory McIlroy Current Ranking | 2nd (DataGolf) [^] |
Both McIlroy and Rahm have U.S. Open titles but struggled at Shinnecock. Rory McIlroy won the U.S. Open in 2011 [^][^][^], and Jon Rahm secured his title in 2021 at Torrey Pines [^][^][^][^][^]. Both players have demonstrated strong overall performance in the tournament. As of mid-2026, McIlroy has achieved six top-10 finishes in his last seven starts, including runner-up performances in 2023 and 2024 [^][^]. Rahm has recorded three top-10 finishes overall [^]. Despite their successes, both McIlroy and Rahm notably missed the cut at Shinnecock Hills during the 2018 U.S. Open [^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Shinnecock Hills' difficult conditions led to both players missing the cut. Shinnecock Hills is known as a challenging championship course, characterized by its fast greens and susceptibility to high winds [^][^]. In 2018, McIlroy experienced significant difficulties there, missing the cut after an opening-round 80, and he specifically referenced these tough conditions in anticipation of the 2026 event [^][^][^][^]. Similarly, Rahm's sole appearance at Shinnecock Hills in 2018 also concluded with him missing the cut [^][^][^][^][^].
Current skill rankings place McIlroy and Rahm highly, lacking specific course data. According to DataGolf, Rory McIlroy holds the 2nd overall ranking with a skill estimate of 2.11 total strokes gained, while Jon Rahm is ranked 3rd overall with a skill estimate of 2.09 total strokes gained [^]. These current player skill rankings do not, however, provide specific information regarding their past performances in U.S. Opens or on difficult, links-style courses [^].
8. What is the historical scoring data for top-ranked players during previous U.S. Opens held at Shinnecock Hills?
| Shinnecock Hills U.S. Opens hosted | 5 times (1896, 1986, 1995, 2004, 2018) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| 2018 U.S. Open Round 1 leaders | 4 players at 1-under par (69) [^][^] |
| 2018 U.S. Open Round 1 scoring average | 76.47 [^][^] |
Historical U.S. Open scoring data at Shinnecock Hills is limited. Comprehensive historical scoring data for top-ranked players from previous U.S. Opens held at Shinnecock Hills is largely unavailable, with detailed Round 1 scores specifically provided only for the 2018 championship. Shinnecock Hills has hosted the U.S. Open five times: in 1896, 1986, 1995, 2004, and 2018 [^][^][^]. While player skill rankings like DataGolf offer current estimates for top players, they do not contain the specific historical scoring information requested for these past events [^].
The 2018 U.S. Open opening round at Shinnecock was notably difficult. The 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills experienced a particularly challenging first round, registering a scoring average of 76.47 [^][^]. This marked the highest average for a U.S. Open first round since the 1986 championship, which also took place at Shinnecock Hills and had a scoring average of 77.877 [^]. After Round 1 in 2018, four players—Dustin Johnson, Ian Poulter, Scott Piercy, and Russell Henley—shared the lead at 1-under par (69), with Jason Dufner as the sole player at even-par (70) [^][^].
9. How does Xander Schauffele's recent form compare to Tommy Fleetwood's leading into the 2026 U.S. Open?
| Xander Schauffele Major Consistency | Top 20 in 16 of last 17 major starts since 2022 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Tommy Fleetwood 2026 Top-10s | 12 [^][^] |
| 2026 Cuts Made (Both Players) | 11 of 12 [^][^] |
Xander Schauffele consistently performs well, entering the U.S. Open without a 2026 win. He has maintained consistent performance, securing multiple top-10 finishes this year, though a victory has eluded him in 2026. His recent results include a T3 at THE PLAYERS, a T4 at the Valspar Championship, a T9 at The Masters, and a T7 at the PGA Championship [^][^][^]. Schauffele also boasts remarkable consistency in major championships, achieving a top-20 finish in 16 of his last 17 starts since 2022 [^][^].
Tommy Fleetwood enters with strong recent form, marked by numerous top-10 finishes. Fleetwood has displayed "hot" form, highlighted by 12 top-10 finishes during the 2026 season [^][^]. His recent tournament play includes a T4 at the Memorial Tournament and being in contention at the RBC Canadian Open immediately preceding the U.S. Open [^][^][^][^][^]. However, Fleetwood did miss the cut at the 2026 PGA Championship [^][^][^][^][^].
Both players show strong tour consistency; Fleetwood holds a slight statistical edge. Xander Schauffele and Tommy Fleetwood have both demonstrated consistent play on the PGA Tour, each making 11 of 12 cuts in their tracked events during the 2026 season [^][^]. According to DataGolf rankings for the PGA Tour, Fleetwood is positioned slightly higher at rank 6 with a skill estimate of 1.82, compared to Schauffele at rank 7 with a skill estimate of 1.72 [^]. The 2026 U.S. Open is scheduled to be held at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York [^][^][^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The provided query date of July 4, 2026, is after the conclusion of the 2026 U.S. Open [^]. As of June 18, 2026, the tournament has already commenced, with the first round underway and broadcast coverage scheduled to begin at 6:30 a.m. EDT [^]. The 2026 U.S. Open is scheduled for June 18-21, 2026, not July 4, 2026 [^].
Key players ranked by DataGolf include Scottie Scheffler at 1st with a skill estimate of 2.85 strokes gained, Rory McIlroy at 2nd with 2.11 strokes gained, and Jon Rahm at 3rd with 2.09 strokes gained [^] . Other top-ranked players are Cameron Young (4th, 1.83 strokes gained), Matt Fitzpatrick (5th, 1.82 strokes gained), Tommy Fleetwood (6th, 1.82 strokes gained), and Xander Schauffele (7th, 1.72 strokes gained) [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: July 04, 2026
- Closes: July 04, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The 2026 U.S.
- Trigger: Open Golf Championship is scheduled to take place from June 18 to June 21, 2026, at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The first round of the 2026 U.S.
- Trigger: Open occurs on Thursday, June 18, 2026 [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 8 resolved YES, 12 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXPGAROUNDSCORE-RBBCAN26R2-WCLA67: NO (Jun 12, 2026)
- KXPGAROUNDSCORE-RBBCAN26R2-VWHA70: NO (Jun 12, 2026)
- KXPGAROUNDSCORE-RBBCAN26R2-VHOV67: NO (Jun 12, 2026)
- KXPGAROUNDSCORE-RBBCAN26R2-TPEN68: YES (Jun 12, 2026)
- KXPGAROUNDSCORE-RBBCAN26R2-TKIM67: NO (Jun 12, 2026)
