Topic tracker · Sports
Challenger ATP
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 40 so far (0 live, 40 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Challenger ATP markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated July 10, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fearnley vs Kozlov | July 23, 2026 | 51.4% vs 71.0% | Report → |
| Varillas vs Alvarez Valdes | July 22, 2026 | 77.5% vs 81.0% | Report → |
| Pucinelli de Almeida vs Ribeiro | July 22, 2026 | 68.9% vs 61.0% | Report → |
| La Serna vs Monzon | July 16, 2026 | 55.0% vs 48.0% | Report → |
| Mbithi vs Soto | July 13, 2026 | 69.5% vs 56.0% | Report → |
| Smith vs Zink | June 12, 2026 | 99.0% vs 92.0% | Report → |
| Nedic vs Jorda Sanchis | June 6, 2026 | 31.2% vs 25.0% | Report → |
| Djere vs Nava | May 30, 2026 | 51.8% vs 54.0% | Report → |
| Carreno Busta vs Munar | May 29, 2026 | 43.9% vs 40.0% | Report → |
| Molcan vs Griekspoor | May 29, 2026 | 59.3% vs 56.0% | Report → |
| Cerundolo vs Burruchaga | May 28, 2026 | 97.7% vs 99.0% | Report → |
| Rinderknech vs Damm Jr | May 28, 2026 | 62.6% vs 64.0% | Report → |
| Baez vs Carreno Busta | May 28, 2026 | 64.0% vs 61.0% | Report → |
| Papa vs Shanmugam | May 24, 2026 | 47.5% vs 52.0% | Report → |
| Sinha vs Kalyanpur | May 24, 2026 | 61.2% vs 57.0% | Report → |
| Arnaldi vs Borges | May 15, 2026 | 21.0% vs 24.0% | Report → |
| Kuhar vs Fondriest | May 4, 2026 | 85.3% vs 87.0% | Report → |
| Giunta vs Fenty | May 4, 2026 | 60.0% vs 65.0% | Report → |
| Dougaz vs Jubb | May 4, 2026 | 45.8% vs 44.0% | Report → |
| Holmgren vs Broady | May 1, 2026 | 14.8% vs 16.0% | Report → |
| Cui vs Kukushkin | April 27, 2026 | 1.7% vs 2.0% | Report → |
| Shimabukuro vs Simakin | April 26, 2026 | 55.6% vs 55.0% | Report → |
| Boulais vs Sekulic | April 28, 2026 | 35.4% vs 34.0% | Report → |
| Varillas vs Mena | April 28, 2026 | 90.0% vs 88.0% | Report → |
| Ivashka vs Sweeny | April 26, 2026 | 64.6% vs 61.0% | Report → |
| Zhou vs Kotov | April 26, 2026 | 57.3% vs 38.0% | Report → |
| Mmoh vs Gomez | April 27, 2026 | 66.4% vs 65.0% | Report → |
| Duckworth vs Napolitano | April 26, 2026 | 26.2% vs 24.0% | Report → |
| Sun vs Sekulic | April 22, 2026 | 69.6% vs 69.0% | Report → |
| Kotov vs Holmgren | April 22, 2026 | 72.9% vs 71.0% | Report → |
| Feldbausch vs Kingsley | April 21, 2026 | 85.0% vs 87.0% | Report → |
| Dhamne vs Blanchet | April 14, 2026 | 7.2% vs 6.0% | Report → |
| Dalla Valle vs Chazal | April 14, 2026 | 17.3% vs 15.0% | Report → |
| Uchiyama vs Added | April 8, 2026 | 56.7% vs 79.0% | Report → |
| Ivashka vs Albot | April 5, 2026 | 42.0% vs 41.0% | Report → |
| Yevseyev vs Vrbensky | April 5, 2026 | 60.8% vs 62.0% | Report → |
| Tammaro vs Ferrari | April 5, 2026 | 1.0% vs 70.0% | Report → |
| Rehberg vs La Vela | April 5, 2026 | 21.9% vs 38.0% | Report → |
| Cadenasso vs Midon | April 4, 2026 | 38.0% vs 62.0% | Report → |
| Kuzmanov vs Gea | March 31, 2026 | 41.0% vs 31.0% | Report → |
