Short Answer

The model assigns meaningfully lower odds than the market for Jacob Fearnley (51.4% model vs 71.0% market), likely driven by the absence of an official match record for July 9, 2026.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market opened with a YES probability of 78.0% for a Jacob Fearnley victory, establishing a high and initial resistance level. The dominant event was a sharp 50.0 percentage point drop on July 9, 2026, when the price fell from 78.0% to a low of 28.0%. The provided context indicates this collapse was driven by the non-occurrence of the scheduled tennis match between Fearnley and Stefan Kozlov. The price has since recovered to 70.0%, demonstrating significant volatility and a re-evaluation by traders.
Total volume of 1,228,498 contracts shows substantial market interest. Initial trading volume was negligible, but it surged on July 10 following the price drop, with single trades accounting for over 21,000 and 10,000 contracts. This spike in volume suggests strong conviction behind the repricing after the match's status became unclear. The initial 78.0% price reflected strong sentiment for a Fearnley win. The subsequent crash to the 28.0% support level and recovery to 70.0% suggest sentiment has shifted from predicting a match outcome to speculating on the market's resolution criteria for a non-event.
  • Jacob Fearnley's market lead exists despite no official match record as of July 10.
  • Stefan Kozlov is reported to have won 6-4, 2-6, 6-4, per direct statements.

Current Context

Prediction markets tracked Fearnley vs. Kozlov at Newport. The ATP Challenger Newport Round of 16 tennis match between Jacob Fearnley and Stefan Kozlov was scheduled for July 9, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. The event was featured on prediction markets, including Kalshi, Robinhood, and Coinbase, where users could trade contracts on the match outcome [3][4][5][6].
Kozlov secured a three-set victory in Newport. On July 9, 2026, Stefan Kozlov defeated Jacob Fearnley at the Newport Challenger with a final score of 6-4, 2-6, 6-4 [7]. Live scoring and match tracking platforms reported the event commencing on July 9, 2026, although some sources indicated July 10 due to time zone differences or reporting duration [1][2][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Jacob Fearnley vs Stefan Kozlov live score, sets & H2H - SportScoresportscore.com
  2. 2Jacob Fearnley Stefan Kozlov live score and H2H results - Sofascoresofascore.com
  3. 3Fearnley vs Kozlov Tennis Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  4. 4Fearnley vs Kozlov ATP Challenger Newport - Kalshikalshi.com
  5. 5Fearnley vs Kozlov | Prediction Markets - Coinbasecoinbase.com
  6. 6Prediksi & Peluang Live Jacob Fearnley vs. Stefan Kozlovweb3.bitget.com
  7. 7Newport | Results | ATP Tour | Tennisatptour.com
  8. 8Jacob Fearnley v Stefan Kozlov LIVE 10/07/2026 | Tennis - Flashscoreflashscore.co.uk

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📉 July 09, 2026: 50.0pp drop

Price decreased from 78.0% to 28.0%

Outcome: Jacob Fearnley

What happened: The primary driver of the 50.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market for Jacob Fearnley was likely the non-occurrence of the scheduled match. As of July 10, 2026, there is no official match record of Jacob Fearnley playing against Stefan Kozlov on July 9, 2026, in the Newport Challenger tournament [1][2]. This information, if it became known on or before the market date, would logically lead to a significant decrease in the probability of Fearnley winning the specified match. Social media activity was not a primary driver, contributing accelerant, mostly noise, or irrelevant, as no relevant social media posts were identified.
Sources (2)
  1. 1Newport | Results | ATP Tour | Tennisatptour.com
  2. 2Newport | Draws | ATP Tour | Tennisatptour.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Contract details not available.

Market Discussion

Prediction markets were established for the tennis match between Jacob Fearnley and Stefan Kozlov at the 2026 ATP Challenger Newport [1][2][3][4]. The match, scheduled for July 9, 2026, was suspended due to darkness and remained a subject of ongoing discussion on July 10, 2026 [5][6]. Pre-match analysis and community sentiment generally favored Jacob Fearnley, with some sources estimating his win probability near 69-70% [7][8], further supported by his higher Elo rating of 1599 compared to Stefan Kozlov's 1429 as of June 2026 [9][10].

Sources (10)
  1. 1July 9, 2026: Fearnley vs Kozlov Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2Fearnley vs Kozlov ATP Challenger Newport - Kalshikalshi.com
  3. 3Fearnley vs Kozlov | Prediction Markets - Coinbasecoinbase.com
  4. 4Newport: Jacob Fearnley vs Stefan Kozlov - Ominariominari.com
  5. 5Jacob Fearnley vs. Stefan Kozlov Newport 2026 Round of 16 | Tennisatptour.com
  6. 6Jacob Fearnley v Stefan Kozlov LIVE 10/07/2026 | Tennis - Flashscoreflashscore.co.uk
  7. 7Fearnley Vs Kozlov H2H Prediction Insights - Tennis - Matchstatmatchstat.com
  8. 8Jacob Fearnley v Stefan Kozlov Betting Tips & Match Predictionsbettingexpert.com
  9. 9Tennis Abstract: Jacob Fearnley Match Results, Splits, and Analysistennisabstract.com
  10. 10Tennis Abstract: Stefan Kozlov Match Results, Splits, and Analysistennisabstract.com

5. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Jul 10, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Trust profile
Event quality77
Healthy
Liquidity
74

2 contracts · worst first

Stefan Kozlov59
Thin · high confidence

Typical bar range 9.0% of price over 20 traded bars

Jacob Fearnley80
Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 5.0% of price over 19 traded bars

Move quality
—

No reading right now

2 contracts · worst first

Stefan Kozlov90
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move

Jacob Fearnley—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.18 log-odds, 4.0c, vol 97,010

Rule clarity
—Clear

Rules read clean and objective

2 contracts · worst first

Jacob Fearnley95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Stefan Kozlov95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Jul 10, 2026

6. How did Jacob Fearnley and Stefan Kozlov compare in recent form and surface performance leading into the Newport Challenger tournament?

Jacob Fearnley 2026 Overall Record13-17 [1][2]
Stefan Kozlov 2026 Overall Record19-15 [1]
Jacob Fearnley 2026 Grass Court Record6-4 [1]
Leading into the 2026 Newport Challenger, Stefan Kozlov held a stronger season record. Kozlov maintained an overall win-loss record of 19-15 for the period, indicating a more successful season. In contrast, Jacob Fearnley's overall season form was described as struggling, holding a 13-17 win-loss record [1][2].
On grass courts, both players showed promising recent performance. Fearnley posted a 6-4 win-loss record on grass in 2026 and entered the Newport Challenger with momentum from earlier play, including participation in the Lexus Ilkley Open [1][3]. Kozlov, for his part, maintained a perfect 2-0 record on grass courts and successfully navigated through the qualifying rounds, defeating Aidan Mayo [1][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1H2H Jacob Fearnley Vs Stefan Kozlov stats, prediction, head to head, and drawtennistonic.com
  2. 2Jacob Fearnley Stats - Season and Career Datatennisstats.com
  3. 3Newport | Results | ATP Tour | Tennisatptour.com
  4. 4Tennis Abstract: 2026 Newport Challenger Results and Forecasttennisabstract.com

7. What pre-match rankings and betting odds supported the initial market consensus favoring Jacob Fearnley on July 9?

Jacob Fearnley ATP Ranking159 (July 9, 2026) [1]
Stefan Kozlov ATP Ranking317 (July 9, 2026) [1]
Fearnley vs. Kozlov Betting OddsNot definitively documented as favoring Fearnley on July 9, 2026 [2]
Jacob Fearnley's higher ranking and recent performance supported his initial market favor. On July 9, 2026, the initial market consensus favored Jacob Fearnley, largely due to his ATP singles ranking of 159, which was significantly higher than Stefan Kozlov's ranking of 317 [1]. Fearnley's recent overall professional performance metrics further contributed to this perceived advantage over Kozlov [1].
Specific betting odds for a Fearnley-Kozlov match were not clearly documented. Available datasets did not definitively show pre-match betting market odds favoring Jacob Fearnley for a match against Stefan Kozlov on July 9, 2026 [2]. Notably, pre-match forecasts from Tennis Abstract for the Newport Challenger on the same date did assign Jacob Fearnley a 50% winning probability, but this was for a match against Mark Lajal, not Stefan Kozlov [2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1H2H Jacob Fearnley Vs Stefan Kozlov stats, prediction, head to head, and drawtennistonic.com
  2. 2Tennis Abstract: 2026 Newport Challenger Results and Forecasttennisabstract.com

8. What in-match developments could explain the significant price drop against Jacob Fearnley during the July 9 contest?

Match DateJuly 9, 2026 [1]
WinnerStefan Kozlov [1]
Final Score6-4, 2-6, 6-4 [1]
Stefan Kozlov defeated Jacob Fearnley in a Newport Challenger match. This tennis contest occurred on July 9, 2026, as part of the Newport Challenger series [1]. Official ATP match records confirm that Stefan Kozlov won this encounter, concluding with a score of 6-4, 2-6, 6-4 [1].
Kozlov's victory directly caused the price drop against Fearnley. The notable price drop against Jacob Fearnley during this July 9, 2026, match can be attributed to the specific outcome and the progression of the score [1]. Stefan Kozlov's ultimate win would have directly contributed to such a price adjustment [1].
Sources (1)
  1. 1Newport | Results | ATP Tour | Tennisatptour.com

9. What do live scoring timelines from the July 9 match show about the key momentum shifts between Fearnley and Kozlov?

Reported Single Match ResultJacob Fearnley defeated Stefan Kozlov 7-5, 3-6, 6-1 (July 9, 2026) [1]
Momentum Shift (Single Match)Fearnley won first set, Kozlov won second set, Fearnley won third set [1]
Conflicting Match RecordsTwo separate matches reported for July 9, 2026, involving Fearnley and Kozlov [2]
Information on Fearnley and Kozlov's July 9 match is conflicting. Conflicting information exists regarding whether a single head-to-head tennis match occurred between Jacob Fearnley and Stefan Kozlov on July 9, 2026. This discrepancy makes it impossible to definitively describe momentum shifts between the players.
One source describes a single Fearnley victory on July 9. According to this account, Jacob Fearnley defeated Stefan Kozlov in an ATP Challenger Newport match on July 9, 2026, with a final score of 7-5, 3-6, 6-1 [1]. This report details that Fearnley won the first set, Kozlov responded by winning the second set, and Fearnley then regained control to dominate the final set [1].
Other data suggests two separate matches, not one head-to-head. However, information from the ATP Tour Newport Challenger website recorded two distinct matches involving these players for the July 9 timeframe [2]. These records indicate that Stefan Kozlov won a match 6-4, 2-6, 6-4, and Jacob Fearnley won another match 7-5, 3-6, 6-1 [2]. These facts suggest that these were two separate competitive outcomes recorded in the Newport Challenger results, rather than a single head-to-head match between them on that specific date [2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1H2H Jacob Fearnley Vs Stefan Kozlov stats, prediction, head to head, and drawtennistonic.com
  2. 2Newport | Results | ATP Tour | Tennisatptour.com

10. What does the career head-to-head history between Stefan Kozlov and Jacob Fearnley reveal about their previous matchups?

Career H2H Record (Conflicting)Some sources indicate 0-0 [1][2][3], others show prior matches [4]
Wimbledon 2025 Match ResultJacob Fearnley defeated Stefan Kozlov [5]
ATP Challenger Newport 2026 MatchPostponed or suspended on July 9, 2026 [6]
The career head-to-head history between Stefan Kozlov and Jacob Fearnley reveals conflicting information. As of July 2026, some sources indicate that these players have no previous matches, reporting a 0-0 record [1][2][3]. However, other information, including their head-to-head profile on the ATP Tour website, suggests that they have indeed competed against each other on the professional tour [4].
One match is confirmed, with another recently scheduled and postponed. Jacob Fearnley secured a victory against Stefan Kozlov during the 2025 Wimbledon tournament; Fearnley subsequently lost in a later round of that event [5]. Furthermore, a second-round match between Jacob Fearnley and Stefan Kozlov was scheduled for the 2026 ATP Challenger Newport tournament but was postponed or suspended on July 9, 2026 [6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Stefan Kozlov vs Jacob Fearnley H2H & Live Scores - TennisStats.comtennisstats.com
  2. 2H2H Stefan Kozlov Vs Jacob Fearnley stats, prediction, head to head, and drawtennistonic.com
  3. 3H2H Jacob Fearnley Vs Stefan Kozlov stats, prediction, head to head, and drawtennistonic.com
  4. 4Jacob Fearnley VS Stefan Kozlov | Head 2 Head | H2H - ATP Touratptour.com
  5. 5[PDF] 2025 Wimbledon day 3 men's match notes - ITF Tennisitftennis.com
  6. 6Results • Thursday 9 July • TennisTempleen.tennistemple.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

A tennis match between Jacob Fearnley and Stefan Kozlov, a Round of 16 fixture in the 2026 ATP Challenger tournament in Newport, was reportedly suspended around July 9-10, 2026 [1].
There is no record of a match between Jacob Fearnley and Stefan Kozlov scheduled for July 23, 2026 [2][3][4][5][6][1][7][8][9][10][11]. The 2026 Newport Challenger event concluded prior to July 23, 2026, and no match between Fearnley and Kozlov was recorded in the draw or results [12][13][14]. ATP Tour records indicate no head-to-head match between these two players as of July 10, 2026 [12][13][15].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: July 23, 2026
  • Closes: July 23, 2026
Sources (15)
  1. 1Jacob Fearnley vs. Stefan Kozlov Newport 2026 Round of 16 | Tennisatptour.com
  2. 2Jacob Fearnley vs Stefan Kozlov Live Scores | LiveScorelivescore.com
  3. 3Jacob Fearnley v Stefan Kozlov LIVE 10/07/2026 | Tennis - Flashscoreflashscore.co.uk
  4. 4Jacob Fearnley Stefan Kozlov live score and H2H results - Sofascoresofascore.com
  5. 5Cerity Partners Hall of Fame Open presented by the Margaret Fund...atptour.com
  6. 6Jacob Fearnley vs Stefan Kozlov live score, sets & H2H - SportScoresportscore.com
  7. 7Fearnley, Jacob vs Kozlov, Stefan · Round 2 - Tennis.comtennis.com
  8. 8Jacob Fearnley v Stefan Kozlov (10/07/2026) - Flashscoreflashscoreusa.com
  9. 9Jacob Fearnley vs Stefan Kozlov 09-07-2026 | Live Scores & Resultroyalscore.com
  10. 10Jacob Fearnley vs. Stefan Kozlov 10.07.2026 - Newport Challengertennislive.net
  11. 11J. Fearnley vs S. Kozlov tennis predictions and stats - 10/07/2026forebet.com
  12. 12Newport | Results | ATP Tour | Tennisatptour.com
  13. 13Newport | Draws | ATP Tour | Tennisatptour.com
  14. 14Tennis Abstract: 2026 Newport Challenger Results and Forecasttennisabstract.com
  15. 15Jacob Fearnley VS Stefan Kozlov | Head 2 Head | H2H - ATP Touratptour.com

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26JUL10NEUSQU-SQU: YES (Jul 10, 2026)
  • KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26JUL10NEUSQU-NEU: NO (Jul 10, 2026)
  • KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26JUL10LOGGIU-LOG: NO (Jul 10, 2026)
  • KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26JUL10LOGGIU-GIU: YES (Jul 10, 2026)
  • KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26JUL10DHADAM-DHA: NO (Jul 10, 2026)