Fearnley vs Kozlov
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully lower odds than the market for Jacob Fearnley (51.4% model vs 71.0% market), likely driven by the absence of an official match record for July 9, 2026.
1. Executive Verdict
- Jacob Fearnley's market lead exists despite no official match record as of July 10.
- Stefan Kozlov is reported to have won 6-4, 2-6, 6-4, per direct statements.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | — | — | Insufficient data |
Current Context
Prediction markets tracked Fearnley vs. Kozlov at Newport. The ATP Challenger Newport Round of 16 tennis match between Jacob Fearnley and Stefan Kozlov was scheduled for July 9, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. The event was featured on prediction markets, including Kalshi, Robinhood, and Coinbase, where users could trade contracts on the match outcome [^][^][^][^].
Kozlov secured a three-set victory in Newport. On July 9, 2026, Stefan Kozlov defeated Jacob Fearnley at the Newport Challenger with a final score of 6-4, 2-6, 6-4 [^]. Live scoring and match tracking platforms reported the event commencing on July 9, 2026, although some sources indicated July 10 due to time zone differences or reporting duration [^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market opened with a YES probability of 78.0% for a Jacob Fearnley victory, establishing a high and initial resistance level. The dominant event was a sharp 50.0 percentage point drop on July 9, 2026, when the price fell from 78.0% to a low of 28.0%. The provided context indicates this collapse was driven by the non-occurrence of the scheduled tennis match between Fearnley and Stefan Kozlov. The price has since recovered to 70.0%, demonstrating significant volatility and a re-evaluation by traders.
Total volume of 1,228,498 contracts shows substantial market interest. Initial trading volume was negligible, but it surged on July 10 following the price drop, with single trades accounting for over 21,000 and 10,000 contracts. This spike in volume suggests strong conviction behind the repricing after the match's status became unclear. The initial 78.0% price reflected strong sentiment for a Fearnley win. The subsequent crash to the 28.0% support level and recovery to 70.0% suggest sentiment has shifted from predicting a match outcome to speculating on the market's resolution criteria for a non-event.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 July 09, 2026: 50.0pp drop
Price decreased from 78.0% to 28.0%
Outcome: Jacob Fearnley
What happened: The primary driver of the 50.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market for Jacob Fearnley was likely the non-occurrence of the scheduled match. As of July 10, 2026, there is no official match record of Jacob Fearnley playing against Stefan Kozlov on July 9, 2026, in the Newport Challenger tournament [^][^]. This information, if it became known on or before the market date, would logically lead to a significant decrease in the probability of Fearnley winning the specified match. Social media activity was not a primary driver, contributing accelerant, mostly noise, or irrelevant, as no relevant social media posts were identified.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Contract details not available.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|
Market Discussion
Prediction markets were established for the tennis match between Jacob Fearnley and Stefan Kozlov at the 2026 ATP Challenger Newport [^][^][^][^]. The match, scheduled for July 9, 2026, was suspended due to darkness and remained a subject of ongoing discussion on July 10, 2026 [^][^]. Pre-match analysis and community sentiment generally favored Jacob Fearnley, with some sources estimating his win probability near 69-70% [^][^], further supported by his higher Elo rating of 1599 compared to Stefan Kozlov's 1429 as of June 2026 [^][^].
5. How did Jacob Fearnley and Stefan Kozlov compare in recent form and surface performance leading into the Newport Challenger tournament?
| Jacob Fearnley 2026 Overall Record | 13-17 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Stefan Kozlov 2026 Overall Record | 19-15 [^] |
| Jacob Fearnley 2026 Grass Court Record | 6-4 [^] |
Leading into the 2026 Newport Challenger, Stefan Kozlov held a stronger season record. Kozlov maintained an overall win-loss record of 19-15 for the period, indicating a more successful season. In contrast, Jacob Fearnley's overall season form was described as struggling, holding a 13-17 win-loss record [^][^].
On grass courts, both players showed promising recent performance. Fearnley posted a 6-4 win-loss record on grass in 2026 and entered the Newport Challenger with momentum from earlier play, including participation in the Lexus Ilkley Open [^][^]. Kozlov, for his part, maintained a perfect 2-0 record on grass courts and successfully navigated through the qualifying rounds, defeating Aidan Mayo [^][^].
6. What pre-match rankings and betting odds supported the initial market consensus favoring Jacob Fearnley on July 9?
| Jacob Fearnley ATP Ranking | 159 (July 9, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Stefan Kozlov ATP Ranking | 317 (July 9, 2026) [^] |
| Fearnley vs. Kozlov Betting Odds | Not definitively documented as favoring Fearnley on July 9, 2026 [^] |
Jacob Fearnley's higher ranking and recent performance supported his initial market favor. On July 9, 2026, the initial market consensus favored Jacob Fearnley, largely due to his ATP singles ranking of 159, which was significantly higher than Stefan Kozlov's ranking of 317 [^]. Fearnley's recent overall professional performance metrics further contributed to this perceived advantage over Kozlov [^].
Specific betting odds for a Fearnley-Kozlov match were not clearly documented. Available datasets did not definitively show pre-match betting market odds favoring Jacob Fearnley for a match against Stefan Kozlov on July 9, 2026 [^]. Notably, pre-match forecasts from Tennis Abstract for the Newport Challenger on the same date did assign Jacob Fearnley a 50% winning probability, but this was for a match against Mark Lajal, not Stefan Kozlov [^].
7. What in-match developments could explain the significant price drop against Jacob Fearnley during the July 9 contest?
Kozlov's victory directly caused the price drop against Fearnley. The notable price drop against Jacob Fearnley during this July 9, 2026, match can be attributed to the specific outcome and the progression of the score [^]. Stefan Kozlov's ultimate win would have directly contributed to such a price adjustment [^].
8. What do live scoring timelines from the July 9 match show about the key momentum shifts between Fearnley and Kozlov?
| Reported Single Match Result | Jacob Fearnley defeated Stefan Kozlov 7-5, 3-6, 6-1 (July 9, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Momentum Shift (Single Match) | Fearnley won first set, Kozlov won second set, Fearnley won third set [^] |
| Conflicting Match Records | Two separate matches reported for July 9, 2026, involving Fearnley and Kozlov [^] |
Information on Fearnley and Kozlov's July 9 match is conflicting. Conflicting information exists regarding whether a single head-to-head tennis match occurred between Jacob Fearnley and Stefan Kozlov on July 9, 2026. This discrepancy makes it impossible to definitively describe momentum shifts between the players.
One source describes a single Fearnley victory on July 9. According to this account, Jacob Fearnley defeated Stefan Kozlov in an ATP Challenger Newport match on July 9, 2026, with a final score of 7-5, 3-6, 6-1 [^]. This report details that Fearnley won the first set, Kozlov responded by winning the second set, and Fearnley then regained control to dominate the final set [^].
Other data suggests two separate matches, not one head-to-head. However, information from the ATP Tour Newport Challenger website recorded two distinct matches involving these players for the July 9 timeframe [^]. These records indicate that Stefan Kozlov won a match 6-4, 2-6, 6-4, and Jacob Fearnley won another match 7-5, 3-6, 6-1 [^]. These facts suggest that these were two separate competitive outcomes recorded in the Newport Challenger results, rather than a single head-to-head match between them on that specific date [^].
9. What does the career head-to-head history between Stefan Kozlov and Jacob Fearnley reveal about their previous matchups?
| Career H2H Record (Conflicting) | Some sources indicate 0-0 [^][^][^], others show prior matches [^] |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon 2025 Match Result | Jacob Fearnley defeated Stefan Kozlov [^] |
| ATP Challenger Newport 2026 Match | Postponed or suspended on July 9, 2026 [^] |
The career head-to-head history between Stefan Kozlov and Jacob Fearnley reveals conflicting information. As of July 2026, some sources indicate that these players have no previous matches, reporting a 0-0 record [^][^][^]. However, other information, including their head-to-head profile on the ATP Tour website, suggests that they have indeed competed against each other on the professional tour [^].
One match is confirmed, with another recently scheduled and postponed. Jacob Fearnley secured a victory against Stefan Kozlov during the 2025 Wimbledon tournament; Fearnley subsequently lost in a later round of that event [^]. Furthermore, a second-round match between Jacob Fearnley and Stefan Kozlov was scheduled for the 2026 ATP Challenger Newport tournament but was postponed or suspended on July 9, 2026 [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
A tennis match between Jacob Fearnley and Stefan Kozlov, a Round of 16 fixture in the 2026 ATP Challenger tournament in Newport, was reportedly suspended around July 9-10, 2026 [^].
There is no record of a match between Jacob Fearnley and Stefan Kozlov scheduled for July 23, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . Stefan Kozlov Newport 2026 Round of 16 | Tennis" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^][^][^][^][^]. The 2026 Newport Challenger event concluded prior to July 23, 2026, and no match between Fearnley and Kozlov was recorded in the draw or results [^][^][^]. ATP Tour records indicate no head-to-head match between these two players as of July 10, 2026 [^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: July 23, 2026
- Closes: July 23, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: A tennis match between Jacob Fearnley and Stefan Kozlov, a Round of 16 fixture in the 2026 ATP Challenger tournament in Newport, was reportedly suspended around July 9-10, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: There is no record of a match between Jacob Fearnley and Stefan Kozlov scheduled for July 23, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The 2026 Newport Challenger event concluded prior to July 23, 2026, and no match between Fearnley and Kozlov was recorded in the draw or results [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: ATP Tour records indicate no head-to-head match between these two players as of July 10, 2026 [^] [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26JUL10NEUSQU-SQU: YES (Jul 10, 2026)
- KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26JUL10NEUSQU-NEU: NO (Jul 10, 2026)
- KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26JUL10LOGGIU-LOG: NO (Jul 10, 2026)
- KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26JUL10LOGGIU-GIU: YES (Jul 10, 2026)
- KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26JUL10DHADAM-DHA: NO (Jul 10, 2026)
