Topic tracker · Sports
World Cup Advance
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 7 so far (0 live, 7 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new World Cup Advance markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated July 15, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| England vs Argentina | August 12, 2026 | 55.7% vs 54.0% | Report → |
| Norway vs England | August 8, 2026 | 40.1% vs 33.0% | Report → |
| Colombia vs Ghana | August 1, 2026 | 84.0% vs 80.0% | Report → |
| Australia vs Egypt | July 31, 2026 | 35.8% vs 40.0% | Report → |
| Spain vs Austria | July 30, 2026 | 87.0% vs 87.0% | Report → |
| Argentina vs Cape Verde | July 31, 2026 | 91.8% vs 92.0% | Report → |
| Switzerland vs Algeria | July 31, 2026 | 72.8% vs 66.0% | Report → |
