Topic tracker · Sports
World Cup Furthest Stage Advanced
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 5 so far (0 live, 5 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new World Cup Furthest Stage Advanced markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated July 13, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Furthest Stage Advanced to by Any South American Nation | July 26, 2026 | 38.0% vs 53.0% | Report → |
| Furthest Stage Advanced to by Any African Nation | July 26, 2026 | 0.0% vs 1.0% | Report → |
| Furthest Stage Advanced to by Any Asian/Oceanic Nation | July 26, 2026 | 100.0% vs 99.0% | Report → |
| Furthest Stage Advanced to by Any European Nation | July 26, 2026 | 10.6% vs 16.0% | Report → |
| Furthest Stage Advanced to by Any Host Nation | July 26, 2026 | 0.8% vs 1.0% | Report → |
