Short Answer

The model assigns meaningfully lower odds than the market for a South American nation's furthest advancement being the Semifinals (38.0% model vs 53.0% market). The model sees higher probabilities for a South American nation to reach or win the Final.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market opened with high conviction at 67.0% but has since traded in a wide 58-point range between 9.0% and its opening high. The overall trend is downward, though recent price action shows a sharp recovery. Extreme volatility characterized early July. The contract saw a 21.0 percentage point drop on July 7, followed by another 10.0 point drop on July 8. These declines were driven by Colombia's elimination from the World Cup in the Round of 16 after a loss to Switzerland. This event removed a key South American contender and drove the market probability down to the 30-40% range.
The most recent significant movement was a 16.0 percentage point spike on July 12. This repricing from 37.0% to 53.0% was a direct reaction to Argentina defeating Switzerland 3-1 on July 11. That victory secured Argentina a spot in the semi-finals, a key milestone for the contract's resolution. Market sentiment is now tethered entirely to Argentina's performance as the sole remaining South American nation in the later stages of the tournament.
Total volume of 43,907 contracts indicates substantial trading activity throughout the tournament. The initial price of 67.0% acts as a historical resistance level, established before tournament play began. Following the volatility in early July, the market established a new short-term range between approximately 27.0% and 61.0%. The current price of 53.0% sits in the upper half of this range, reflecting renewed but not complete confidence following Argentina's quarter-final success.
  • Since last update (~12d): The model now favors Winning the Final, up +6.3pp, as its edge flipped over the market.
  • For Losing the Final, the model increased +1.9pp while its edge flipped over the market.
  • Semifinals probability surged (model +9.3pp, market +11.0pp), widening the market-led edge further.
  • Round of 16 and Quarterfinals outcomes resolved "no," while confidence dropped -1.0pp.
  • "Semifinals" is the market's leading outcome, as Argentina faces England in the Semifinals.
  • Argentina's 62% implied probability of winning the Semifinal boosts chances of reaching the Final.
  • Winning the Final remains possible, supported by Argentina's strong championship pedigree.

Current Context

South American nations have won ten FIFA World Cup titles historically. Brazil leads with five championships, securing victories in 1958, 1962, 1970, 1994, and 2002 [1][2]. Argentina holds three titles from 1978, 1986, and 2022. Uruguay won the tournament twice, in 1930 and 1950 [1][2].
Argentina is the furthest advanced South American team in the 2026 World Cup. As of July 13, 2026, Argentina has reached the quarter-finals of the ongoing 2026 FIFA World Cup and is scheduled to face Switzerland [3]. The tournament final is set for July 19, 2026 [4]. Brazil was eliminated from the 2026 World Cup in the Round of 16, following a 1-2 loss to Norway [5]. Colombia reached the Round of 16 and was scheduled to play Switzerland on July 7, 2026, for a place in the quarter-finals [6]. Pre-tournament analysis identified Argentina and Uruguay as primary South American contenders, with predictive models offering varied success probabilities for the expanded 48-team knockout format [7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Argentina at the FIFA World Cup - Wikipediaen-wp.org
  2. 2Brazil at the FIFA World Cupen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Argentina's road so far | FIFA World Cup 2026fifa.com
  4. 4Mapping Out Argentina’s Potential Route to 2026 World Cup Glory | Opta Analysttheanalyst.com
  5. 5Brazil 1-2 Norway | Match report & highlights | FIFA World Cupfifa.com
  6. 6Colombia 1-0 Ghana | Match report & highlightsfifa.com
  7. 7Uruguay World Cup 2026 Prediction – Squad & Tournament Analysisfootballprediction.app
  8. 8Colombia World Cup 2026 Prediction – Squad & Tournament Analysisfootballprediction.app

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Semifinals

📈 July 12, 2026: 16.0pp spike

Price increased from 37.0% to 53.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 16.0 percentage point spike was Argentina advancing to the 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinals on July 11, 2026, after defeating Switzerland 3-1 in the quarter-finals [1][2][3][4]. This confirmed official match result directly ensured a South American nation reached the semifinals, causing the market to reprice. While social media activity for the World Cup sees significant spikes around high-profile matches [5], the market movement was a direct reaction to this traditional news event, with social media acting as a contributing accelerant by amplifying the confirmed outcome.

📉 July 08, 2026: 10.0pp drop

Price decreased from 41.0% to 31.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the price drop was the elimination of Colombia from the 2026 FIFA World Cup on July 08, 2026 [6]. On this date, Colombia was defeated by Switzerland in a penalty shootout during the Round of 16, which significantly reduced the number of South American nations still capable of advancing to the semifinals [6]. This traditional news event, reported by major sports outlets, coincided with the market movement, indicating a perceived decrease in the likelihood of any South American nation reaching the semifinals [6]. No specific social media activity from influential figures or viral narratives were identified as leading or coinciding with this price movement in the provided information, making social media largely irrelevant to this particular market shift.

📈 July 05, 2026: 34.0pp spike

Price increased from 27.0% to 61.0%

What happened: Based on the provided web research, there is no information directly explaining the 34.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market on July 05, 2026. The available sources confirm that Argentina secured its spot in the 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinals by defeating Switzerland in the quarter-finals on July 11, 2026 [2][3][7][4], which is after the observed market movement. The research does not contain any social media posts, traditional news, or market structure factors from July 05, 2026, or earlier, that would have driven such a specific price increase. Therefore, the primary driver for this particular market movement, especially regarding social media, cannot be determined from the provided data.

Outcome: Losing the Final

📉 July 07, 2026: 26.0pp drop

Price decreased from 56.0% to 30.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 26.0 percentage point drop was the elimination of Colombia from the FIFA World Cup 2026 on July 7, 2026, after losing to Switzerland in a penalty shootout during the Round of 16 [8][9][10]. This event immediately removed one South American nation's potential to reach and lose the final. Simultaneously, Argentina became the sole remaining South American nation, having advanced to the quarterfinals by defeating Egypt 3-2 on the same day, which further solidified market expectations regarding the remaining South American contender [8][9][10][11][12][13]. Social media was not a primary driver, as research indicated no specific social media catalyst for this particular drop for a South American team, despite general high engagement for other nations [14][15][16].

Outcome: Winning the Final

📉 July 06, 2026: 28.0pp drop

Price decreased from 48.0% to 20.0%

What happened: The 28.0 percentage point drop on July 06, 2026, in the market "Furthest Stage Advanced to by Any South American Nation - Winning the Final" appears to be driven by the strong advancement of European contenders. On this date, the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 matches included Spain's victory over Portugal and England's win against Mexico, securing their places in the quarter-finals [17][18][19]. As no South American teams were reported to have played or been eliminated on July 6th [17][18][20][19][21], the strong showing by these formidable European nations likely led to a significant market re-evaluation, diminishing the perceived probability of any South American nation ultimately winning the final. Based on the available research, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver for this movement.
Sources (21)
  1. 1Which teams are in the World Cup semifinals, and what’s the match schedule? | World Cup 2026 | Al Jazeera1-e8259.azureedge.net
  2. 2Argentina beat Switzerland in quarters | Match report & highlightsfifa.com
  3. 3World Cup 2026: Argentina 3-1 Switzerland (AET): Julian Alvarez scores stunner to set up blockbuster semi-final vs England | Football News | Sky Sportsskysports.com
  4. 4Julian Alvarez’s 112th-minute goal helps lift Argentina past Switzerland 3-1 and into World Cup semifinalstsn.ca
  5. 5World Cup Marketing: How Brands Are Using AI to Ride the World Cup Wave on Social Media - Vivgrowthvivgrowth.com
  6. 6Switzerland 0-0 Colombia (8 Jul, 2026) Final Score - ESPN (AU)espn.com.au
  7. 7Argentina survive Switzerland to book semifinal with England - ESPNespn.com
  8. 8Colombia’s World Cup ends as Switzerland advances on penalties - AS USAen.as.com
  9. 9Opportunity Lost: Colombia's Exit to Switzerland on Penalties Leaves World Cup With One Team from the Americas - Last Word On Footballlastwordonsports.com
  10. 10Colombia loses in a penalty shootout to a tenacious Switzerland, which will face Argentina in the quarterfinalsvoz.us
  11. 11Argentina fightback stuns Egypt | Match report & highlightsfifa.com
  12. 12Messi and Salah’s last dance｜FIFA World Cup 2026fifa.com
  13. 13Argentina 3-2 Egypt: Messi gets Sofascore Rating 9sofascore.com
  14. 14England's Mexico World Cup win delivers quadruple audience records for BBC iPlayer, online, social and late night viewers - Prolific Northprolificnorth.co.uk
  15. 15England captain Harry Kane’s £5m Mexico boostbusinesscloud.co.uk
  16. 16Erling Haaland smashes GTA 6 record as World Cup fever grows to another levelhitc.com
  17. 172026 FIFA World Cup match schedule: Fixtures, results,...espn.com
  18. 18World Cup 2026: Portugal 0-1 Spain - Mikel Merino sends Spain to quarter-finals as Cristiano Ronaldo fails to deliver | Football News | Sky Sportsskysports.com
  19. 19Mexico's World Cup run ends with loss to England at...npr.org
  20. 20Merino strikes late as Spain edge Portugal, drawing curtain on Ronaldo's World Cup career - France 24france24.com
  21. 21U.S. eliminated from World Cup in lopsided 4-1 defeat to...nbcnews.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This contract resolves YES if the furthest stage advanced to by any South American nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup is specifically the Semifinals; otherwise, it resolves NO. The market is open from May 13, 2026, and closes either when the outcome occurs or by July 26, 2026. Special settlement conditions include: a team's furthest stage is the last one successfully completed if they withdraw, forfeit, or are disqualified; and losing in the Semifinals still counts as reaching the Semifinals, regardless of the third-place match outcome.

Market Discussion

The discussion indicates limited trader commentary. One trader, electrical.skunk9136, holds a "Yes" position on a South American team reaching the Semifinals and asks for others' opinions. In contrast, esiayngco believes there's good value for Argentina to reach the finals, implying a "No" stance on the Semifinals being the furthest stage, suggesting a South American team will advance further.

5. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Jul 13, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Trust profile
Event quality49
Weak
Liquidity
48

7 contracts · worst first

Winning the Final34
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Losing the Final36
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Semifinals56
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Group Stage—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Round of 32—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Round of 16—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Quarterfinals—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

7 contracts · worst first

Semifinals—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 137

Losing the Final—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 449

Winning the Final—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 498

Group Stage—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Round of 32—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Round of 16—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Quarterfinals—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
—Clear

Rules read clean and objective

7 contracts · worst first

Semifinals95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Losing the Final95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Winning the Final95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Group Stage95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Round of 3295
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Round of 1695
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Quarterfinals95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Jul 13, 2026

6. What key factors and model predictions will influence the outcome of the Argentina vs. Switzerland quarter-final match?

Match ScoreArgentina 3-1 Switzerland (July 11, 2026) [1][2][3][4]
Switzerland Loss Probability69.1% (Opta supercomputer) [5]
Furthest CONMEBOL NationArgentina effectively 100% (Polymarket) [6]
Argentina defeated Switzerland in the 2026 World Cup quarter-final. On July 11, 2026, Argentina secured a 3-1 victory over Switzerland in the 2026 FIFA World Cup quarter-final match, thereby advancing to the semi-finals to face England [1][2][3][4]. Prior to the game, the Opta supercomputer had estimated a 69.1% likelihood of Switzerland losing to Argentina [5].
Argentina's victory stemmed from key tactical and player actions. Important factors contributing to Argentina's win included sustained early pressure, a significant red card issued to Swiss forward Breel Embolo in the 72nd minute, and decisive goals scored by Alexis Mac Allister, Julian Alvarez, and Lautaro Martinez [3][4]. Following this win, Argentina became one of the final four teams and, as of July 12, 2026, was the only remaining South American nation in the tournament [7]. This result also led to the 'Furthest Advancing CONMEBOL Nation' market on Polymarket showing Argentina's probability at effectively 100% [6].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Argentina sink Switzerland to set up England semififa.com
  2. 2Argentina 3-1 Switzerland (Jul 11, 2026) Final Scoreespn.com
  3. 3Argentina 3 - 1 Switzerland - Match Report & Highlightsskysports.com
  4. 4Argentina vs Switzerland LIVE: World Cup quarter-final score, lineups, commentary & updates - BBC Sportbbc.com
  5. 5FIFA World Cup 2026 Predictions: The Opta Supercomputer Projections Ahead of the Quarter-Finals | Opta Analysttheanalyst.com
  6. 6World Cup: Furthest Advancing CONMEBOL Nation Predictions... 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  7. 7FIFA World Cup 2026 Predictions: The Opta Supercomputer Projections Ahead of the Semi-Finals | Opta Analysttheanalyst.com

7. What specific match results involving South American teams correlate with the major price movements between July 4th and July 12th?

Paraguay EliminationJuly 4 (lost 0-1 to France) [1][2][3]
Brazil EliminationJuly 5 (lost 1-2 to Norway) [1][2][4]
Argentina StatusSole South American nation in semi-finals as of July 13, 2026 [5]
Several South American teams faced elimination early in the knockout stages. Between July 4th and July 12th, the 2026 FIFA World Cup saw the exits of multiple South American nations from the competition, correlating with impacts on prediction markets [2]. Paraguay was eliminated on July 4th after a 0-1 loss to France in the Round of 16 [1][2][3]. Brazil followed on July 5th, exiting the tournament after a 1-2 defeat against Norway in the Round of 16 [1][2][4]. Colombia also concluded its run on July 7th, losing to Switzerland 0-0, followed by a 3-4 penalty shootout defeat [1][2].
Argentina, however, continued its strong performance and progressed in the tournament. In contrast to the aforementioned exits, Argentina advanced further, defeating Egypt 3-2 in the Round of 16 [6]. They subsequently secured an extra-time victory against Switzerland in the quarter-finals on July 11th [7][5]. As of July 13th, 2026, Argentina remained the sole South American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, having successfully reached the semi-finals [5].
Sources (7)
  1. 1World Cup Round of 16 bracket: Updated schedule, results for second 2026 FIFA knockout round | Sporting Newssportingnews.com
  2. 2World Cup 2026 | Match schedule, fixtures, results & stadiumsfifa.com
  3. 3Paraguay 0-1 France Stats: Mbappé Penalty Seals Quarter-Final Berth After Bruising World Cup Bout | Opta Analysttheanalyst.com
  4. 4Brazil 1-2 Norway Stats: Haaland Brace Sends Norwegians into World Cup Quarter-Finals | Opta Analysttheanalyst.com
  5. 5FIFA World Cup 2026 Predictions: The Opta Supercomputer Projections Ahead of the Semi-Finals | Opta Analysttheanalyst.com
  6. 6Argentina v Egypt 3-2 | Result, Stats & Highlights | Round of 16 | FIFA World Cup 2026™ | FIFAfifa.com
  7. 7Argentina beat Switzerland in quarters | Match report & highlightsfifa.com

8. How did the 2026 tournament performances of Argentina and Brazil compare leading up to the quarter-finals?

Argentina's 2026 World Cup StageSemi-finals (2026 FIFA World Cup) [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]
Argentina Quarter-Final ResultDefeated Switzerland 3-1 in quarter-finals (after extra time) [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]
Brazil's 2026 World Cup StageEliminated in Round of 16 [8][9][10][11]
Argentina impressively advanced to the semi-finals of the 2026 World Cup. The team successfully navigated the group stage and secured victories in the knockout rounds, defeating Cabo Verde in the Round of 32 and Egypt in the Round of 16 [12][10]. Argentina's progression to the semi-finals was sealed with a 3-1 win over Switzerland in the quarter-finals, a match that extended into extra time [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. Notably, Argentina was the sole South American nation to reach the quarter-finals in this tournament [13].
Brazil, in contrast, exited the World Cup earlier in the Round of 16. Brazil experienced an early elimination from the 2026 World Cup, being defeated in the Round of 16 [8][9][10][11]. They suffered a 2-1 loss to Norway in this stage, marking their earliest departure from a World Cup since 1990 [10][11].
Sources (13)
  1. 1Argentina beat Switzerland in quarters | Match report & highlightsfifa.com
  2. 2FIFA World Cup 2026 quarter-finals full fixture: Argentina survive chaos, Brazil crash out as last 8 promise fireworks | Football Newshindustantimes.com
  3. 3World Cup 2026: Argentina reach semi-finals after extra-...france24.com
  4. 4Argentina storm into WC semis as Alvarez, Martinez stun Switzerland in extra time | Football News - The Indian Expressindianexpress.com
  5. 5Argentina secures place in World Cup semi-final with 3-1...lemonde.fr
  6. 6Scaloni admits 'luck was on our side' as Argentina benefit from Embolo's red card to reach World Cup semis | The Nationalthenationalnews.com
  7. 7How resilience has become Argentina's greatest weapon | FIFA World Cup 2026fifa.com
  8. 82026 FIFA World Cup match schedule: Fixtures, results,...espn.com
  9. 9World Cup quarterfinal bracket: Updated schedule, results for 2026 FIFA knockout games | Sporting Newssportingnews.com
  10. 10FIFA World Cup 2026 Predictions: The Opta Supercomputer Projections Ahead of the Quarter-Finals | Opta Analysttheanalyst.com
  11. 11Brazil 1-2 Norway | Match report & highlights | FIFA World Cupfifa.com
  12. 12Argentina's road so far | FIFA World Cup 2026fifa.com
  13. 13Facts and figures about the quarter-finalistsfifa.com

9. What is the historical precedent for a lone South American team's performance after reaching the World Cup quarter-finals?

2026 World Cup Semi-FinalistArgentina is the only South American team to reach the semi-finals [1]
Quarter-final ResultArgentina defeated Switzerland 3-1 in the quarter-finals [1]
Historical Precedent for 'Lone' SA TeamNo singular, rigid historical precedent dictates outcome from quarter-finals [2][3][4][5][6]
Argentina's 2026 semi-final advancement reflects historical South American progression trends. Argentina has become the sole South American representative to advance to the semi-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, following their 3-1 quarter-final victory over Switzerland [1]. This progression, with Argentina as the only remaining South American nation at this late stage of the tournament, aligns with historical patterns where often only one or very few South American teams reach the quarter-finals or beyond [7].
Historical outcomes for lone South American quarter-finalists widely vary. While South American nations frequently reach the World Cup quarter-finals, there is no single, rigid historical precedent dictating the performance of a 'lone' South American team once it reaches this stage [2][3][4][5][6]. The results for such teams can range significantly, from being eliminated in the quarter-finals to ultimately winning the entire tournament [6]. A team's performance is typically influenced by factors such as its specific form, the strength of its opponent, and the prevailing tournament conditions [6]. Historically, South American powerhouses like Brazil and Argentina have consistently reached the quarter-finals, experiencing varied results. Notable recent examples include Argentina's victory in 2022, and Brazil's exits in both the 2018 and 2022 tournaments [6][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1FIFA World Cup 2026: Biggest takeaways from the quarterfinals | World Cup 2026 News | Al Jazeeraaljazeera.com
  2. 2South American nations at the FIFA World Cupen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3South American nations at the FIFA World Cup - Wikiwandwikiwand.com
  4. 42010 FIFA World Cupipfs.basearchive.ai
  5. 5South American nations at the FIFA World Cup - WikiMili, The Best Wikipedia Readerwikimili.com
  6. 6Argentina's World Cup Wins and Heartaches | Opta Analysttheanalyst.com
  7. 7Facts and figures about the quarter-finalistsfifa.com
  8. 8Brazil at the FIFA World Cup: Team profile and historyfifa.com

10. How have betting odds for Argentina reaching the final stages evolved since the start of the 2026 World Cup?

Pre-tournament final probability18.3% [1][2]
Pre-tournament furthest advancing South American nation42.5% implied probability [3]
Semifinal match winner probability vs England62% implied probability [4][5][6][7]
Argentina began as a strong favorite for the 2026 World Cup final. Prior to the tournament's commencement, Argentina was considered a leading contender, with an estimated 18.3% probability of reaching the final according to pre-tournament predictions [1][2]. They also held an implied probability of approximately 42.5% in the 'Furthest Advancing South American Nation' prediction market [3].
Argentina's odds improved significantly as they advanced to the semifinals. As of July 13, 2026, Argentina has progressed to the semifinals, while their primary rival in the 'Furthest Advancing South American Nation' market, Brazil, was eliminated in the Round of 16 [8][2][5][7]. Their betting odds continued to evolve through the knockout stages, notably as significant favorites in their quarter-final match against Switzerland, with money line odds of 1.694 [5][6][7]. Argentina is scheduled to play England in the semifinals on July 15, where they are favored with an implied probability of 62% and priced at 1.840 in the two-way semifinal match winner market [4][5][6][7].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Who Will Win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? The Opta Supercomputer Predictions | Opta Analysttheanalyst.com
  2. 2Mapping Out Argentina’s Potential Route to 2026 World Cup Glory | Opta Analysttheanalyst.com
  3. 3World Cup: Furthest Advancing South American Nation June 5lines.com
  4. 4England vs. Argentina Prediction July 15lines.com
  5. 5England vs Argentina Betting Odds | FIFA - World Cup Oddspinnacle.com
  6. 6Argentina vs Egypt Betting Odds | FIFA - World Cup Oddspinnacle.com
  7. 7Argentina vs Switzerland Prediction: World Cup 2026 Match Preview | Opta Analysttheanalyst.com
  8. 8Updated Argentina World Cup 2026 Odds & Predictions2026worldcupodds.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Argentina has advanced to the semifinal round of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with the match scheduled for July 15, 2026 [1][2]. The tournament's final match is set for July 19, 2026, at the New York New Jersey Stadium [3][1].
The furthest stage any South American nation has advanced to in FIFA World Cup history is the title of Champion [4][5][6]. Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay have all won the tournament [4][5][6]. Brazil holds five titles, Argentina three, and Uruguay two [6][7][8][9][10].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: July 26, 2026
  • Closes: July 26, 2026
Sources (10)
  1. 12026 FIFA World Cup Schedule: Bracket, matches, dates, locations, group tables, results, how to watch - NBC Sportsnbcsports.com
  2. 22026 FIFA World Cup Scheduleespn.com
  3. 3What’s the full match schedule, groups and format for World Cup 2026? | World Cup 2026 News | Al Jazeeraaljazeera.com
  4. 4Visualizing Every FIFA World Cup Champion (1930–2022)visualcapitalist.com
  5. 5Every FIFA World Cup Final Result (1930-2022)surprisesports.com
  6. 6Brazil at the FIFA World Cup: Team profile and historyfifa.com
  7. 7Five Stars: Brazil’s FIFA World Cup Wins | Opta Analysttheanalyst.com
  8. 8Uruguay World Cup history, records and 2026 fixturesfifa.com
  9. 93 days to go: Meet the final draw's CONMEBOL teamsfifa.com
  10. 10Most World Cup Wins | Opta Analysttheanalyst.com

13. Related News

+16.0pp
Last updated: July 13, 2026, 13:05 UTC

Argentina Victory Guarantees Semifinal Berth, Lifts South American World Cup Odds

Argentina’s dramatic extra-time victory over Switzerland in the FIFA World Cup quarter-finals on Saturday (July 11, 2026) has locked in a semifinal appearance for a South American nation, triggering a...
+44.0pp
Last updated: July 13, 2026, 13:05 UTC

All 5 South American Teams Advance, Boosting World Cup Deep-Run Odds

The successful advancement of all five participating South American (CONMEBOL) teams to the Round of 16 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup has driven a significant repricing in prediction markets, signaling i...

14. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 18 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXWCSTAGE-26ASOC-SF: NO (Jul 06, 2026)
  • KXWCSTAGE-26ASOC-R32: YES (Jul 06, 2026)
  • KXWCSTAGE-26ASOC-R16: NO (Jul 06, 2026)
  • KXWCSTAGE-26ASOC-QF: NO (Jul 06, 2026)
  • KXWCSTAGE-26ASOC-GS: NO (Jun 28, 2026)