Topic tracker · Sports
World Cup Spread
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 9 so far (0 live, 9 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new World Cup Spread markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated June 30, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico vs Ecuador: Regulation Time Spread | July 15, 2026 | 3.5% vs 6.0% | Report → |
| France vs Sweden: Regulation Time Spread | July 14, 2026 | 37.6% vs 32.0% | Report → |
| Ivory Coast vs Norway: Regulation Time Spread | July 14, 2026 | 10.0% vs 3.0% | Report → |
| Norway vs France: Spread | July 10, 2026 | 16.8% vs 3.0% | Report → |
| Curacao vs Ivory Coast: Spread | July 9, 2026 | 50.3% vs 1.0% | Report → |
| Ecuador vs Germany: Spread | July 9, 2026 | 29.3% vs 2.0% | Report → |
| Switzerland vs Canada: Spread | July 8, 2026 | 5.0% vs 6.0% | Report → |
| Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay: Spread | June 29, 2026 | 0.6% vs 3.0% | Report → |
| Belgium vs Egypt: Spread | June 29, 2026 | 0.4% vs 3.0% | Report → |
