Companies coverage for Kalshi prediction market probability repricing.
Companies prediction markets price the real-world catalysts every operator and investor tracks: IPO timing, M&A outcomes, earnings releases, leadership changes, regulatory approvals, and product launches. Octagon Research surfaces the moves that matter — repricing events where Kalshi contracts on individual companies and corporate events shift materially on new information. Each story explains what changed, quantifies the size and direction of the probability move in percentage points, and links the dislocation to source material so readers can judge signal from noise. Coverage spans S-1 filings, IPO date announcements, M&A negotiations, executive departures, antitrust decisions, and other corporate-event contracts. Articles update as new evidence emerges, giving institutional and retail readers a structured view of where market expectations on specific companies are moving and why.
What happened Smart ring maker Oura Inc. has launched its initial public offering, setting definitive terms that move its market debut from speculation to a concrete plan. The company and its existing shareholders are se
What happened Wearable technology company Oura Inc. has publicly filed for an initial public offering in the U.S., revealing a profitable core business with rapidly growing subscription revenue alongside a significant pr
Comments from a key Apple supplier on Wednesday, August 12, 2026, provided the strongest evidence yet of a delayed launch for the standard iPhone 18, causing a sharp repricing in prediction markets. F...
What happened Italian technology firm Bending Spoons has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire the collaborative software platform Airtable in an all-cash transaction. The deal assigns Airtable a $1.285 billion
What happened Anthropic has closed a $65 billion Series H funding round, achieving a $965 billion post-money valuation and potentially marking its final private financing before a public offering [6]. The deal vaults Ant
What happened Reports from speculative secondary markets indicate that the implied valuation of artificial intelligence company Anthropic has surged to $1.2 trillion, a figure that would place it ahead of rival OpenAI fo
What happened Gusto, a direct competitor to Rippling in the human resources and payroll software sector, has reportedly surpassed $1 billion in annual revenue. The milestone establishes a new financial benchmark for priv
What happened The Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) increased its support for the U.S. housing market in the first quarter of 2026, providing $116 billion in liquidity that helped approximately 385,000 h
What happened Anduril Industries has secured a position on a new multi-vendor U.S. Space Force contract vehicle with a ceiling of $1.8 billion, a development that further cements its status as a key technology provider t
In Friday's session (April 17, 2026), the prediction market for Warner Bros. Discovery's (WBD) next acquirer saw a significant shift toward a more protracted and uncertain timeline. The contract for "...
The prediction market for the 12th flight of SpaceX's Starship vehicle experienced a significant repricing on Saturday, March 28, 2026, consolidating the implied consensus for a launch in April. The c...
The prediction market for SpaceX's 12th Starship launch has undergone a notable shift, with traders pushing back the expected timeline from April to May 2026. The probability of a launch occurring "Be...
The prediction market for SpaceX's total number of orbital launches in 2026 experienced a significant upward repricing on March 16, with contracts for higher launch counts seeing sharp increases in pr...
A prediction market tracking Tesla's vehicle deliveries for the first quarter of 2026 has experienced a significant bullish repricing, with the implied probabilities for all high-delivery outcomes ris...
The prediction market for Discord’s IPO timing has undergone a significant reallocation of probability, with the June 2026 bucket collapsing by 17 percentage points (pp), while mid-2027 buckets gained...
The prediction market for SpaceX’s IPO timing has undergone a dramatic reallocation, with the "Before July 1, 2026" bucket gaining 24.0 percentage points of probability within a week. This surge conce...
On March 7, 2026, a dramatic 33-percentage-point collapse in the probability of Discord announcing its IPO by August 1, 2026, sent ripples through financial markets. The KXIPODISCORD-26AUG01 contract,...
The prediction market for Anduril’s IPO prospects in 2026 has undergone a seismic shift. Over a 7-day period, its probability of announcing an IPO plunged from 46% to 19% (a 27-point decline) [1], loc...
