Short Answer

Bitcoin is expected to reach the $81,164.11 target within the 15-minute trading window, with the market pricing this outcome at 74.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • BTC's $81,164.11 target likely stems from substantial spot ETF outflows.
  • Broader macro headwinds also push Bitcoin towards the $81,164.11 target.

Current Context

Bitcoin prices materially exceeded the contract target ahead of the window. The requested contract, "BTC 15 min · $81,164.11 target," covers 11:45–12:00 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, and resolves if Bitcoin is at or above this target at the window's close [1]. Before the contract period, reported BTC prices were above the target, reaching $82,622.04 at 7:00 AM ET and approximately $82,653 at 04:55 UTC, as BTC tested the $82,000–$83,000 support zone [2][3]. A downside backdrop for October 8 included approximately $487.07 million in spot-Bitcoin-ETF outflows on October 7, roughly $550 million in crypto liquidations, strong Treasury yields, dollar strength, and failed resistance near $87,000 [3][4][5].
Analysts identified a critical support zone, while prediction markets favored stability. The $82,000–$82,500/$82,800 range was identified as an immediate decision area; holding it could support consolidation or a rebound toward $85,000, while a break below could expose BTC to $80,000 [3][6]. Forex.com observed unusually low realized volatility, with five-day annualized volatility at 25.1%, placing it in roughly the bottom 8% since 2017 [6]. Prediction market evidence generally favored BTC remaining above nearby thresholds for the day: Gemini odds showed an 87.5% probability for $81,250 or above [7]. Frenzy/Kalshi aggregation indicated 94% for $81,000 or above, 90% for $81,250 or above, 86% for $81,500 or above, and 68% for $82,000 or above [8][9]. Polymarket's leading end-of-day range was $82,000–$84,000 at 48% [10].
Contract settlement relies on averaged prices; academic patterns are historical. These 15-minute target markets typically settle based on a final-minute average of CF Benchmarks’ Bitcoin Real-Time Index, rather than a single tick [11][12]. The specific target market's published description indicates that the final 60-second average determines the result, diminishing the impact of a brief price wick [12]. Academic research notes a statistically documented turn-of-the-15-minute-candle effect in Bitcoin returns, with positive returns disproportionately concentrated at minutes 0, 15, 30, and 45; this remains historical research and is not a reliable standalone forecast for the contract [13]. For the 11:45–12:00 PM EDT contract, the $81,164.11 target was approximately $1,450 below the 7:00 AM reported price and below the day’s cited support zone [2][3][6][1]. Evidence at the observed time favored a YES outcome, but the 15-minute window remained susceptible to a sharp liquidation or support break, and no source provides a guaranteed probability for this exact contract [2][3][6][1].
Sources (13)
  1. 1BTC 15 min · 11:45–12:00 PM EDT - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  2. 2Current price of Bitcoin for October 8, 2026 - Fortunefortune.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Price Today: BTC Slips to $82K as $487M Pulls Out of ETFs. What if Support Breakscryptotimes.io
  4. 4Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Is down 1.01% on Oct 8: Why It Happenedtradingkey.com
  5. 5Why Is Crypto Down Today? Bitcoin Falls Below $83K as $550M in Bets Get Wiped Out - Bitcoin Foundationbitcoinfoundation.org
  6. 6BTC/USD Outlook: Bitcoin defies macro headwinds as volatility evaporatesforex.com
  7. 7BTC price on October 8 - Gemini Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  8. 8Bitcoin price on Oct 8, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  9. 9BTC price on Oct 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT? — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  10. 10Bitcoin price on October 8?polymarket.com
  11. 11Kalshi 15-Min Bitcoin (KXBTC15M): Rules, Settlement & Edgepredictionmarketspicks.com
  12. 1215 Minute Odds: Live Prediction Market Pricesmarketss.com
  13. 13Turn-of-the-candle effect in bitcoin returns - PMCpmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if the final settlement price is above $81,164.11. NO resolves if the final settlement price is at or below $81,164.11. The market expires on October 8, 12:00 PM EDT. The official settlement price is determined by averaging 60 Real Time Index (RTI) prices from CF Benchmarks, collected during the last minute before expiration (11:59 AM to 12:00 PM EDT).

Market Discussion

The "BTC 15 min · $81,164.11 target" refers to a prediction market where participants bet on Bitcoin's price reaching or exceeding this value within a specific 15-minute interval, such as 11:45–12:00 PM EDT on October 8, 2026 [1]. These markets utilize the CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) for resolution, with the official price determined by averaging 60 index samples collected during the final minute of the window [2]. Public discussion among traders focuses on real-time odds, whale activity, and arbitrage opportunities, particularly on social media and specialized prediction market tracking platforms [2].

Sources (2)
  1. 1BTC 15 min · 11:45–12:00 PM EDT - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  2. 2BTC price range on Oct 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT? Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com

4. Trust Index

This scorecard was computed Oct 8, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 79 Good

Largest single print on KXBTC15M-26OCT081200-00 carried 35% of its $1,853 tape (window is 0% of 24h flow)

Integrity risk· Large trades

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score83Good
Trade quality20% of score65Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 2% of the price to slippage.

Trust score79Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
80Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on KXBTC15M-26OCT081200-00 carried 35% of its $1,853 tape (window is 0% of 24h flow)

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
65Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

1 contract

Target Price: $81,164.1165
Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract

Target Price: $81,164.11—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Target Price: $81,164.1195
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
65Caution

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 65 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 73.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 73.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 1.2c slippage (~2% of a 73.5c contract)

Target Price: $81,164.11Primary65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 8, 2026

5. What volume of spot selling or futures liquidations during the contract window could breach key support levels and push Bitcoin below $81,164.11?

Required Futures-Long Liquidations$30M–$45M (combined with aggressive net spot selling) [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Required Aggressive Net Spot Selling$10M–$25M (combined with futures-long liquidation pressure) [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Total Crypto Liquidations (prior 24h)$550M–$690M [7]
Bitcoin requires significant combined selling pressure to breach key support. Approximately $30M–$45M of futures-long liquidation pressure, alongside $10M–$25M of aggressive net spot selling, could plausibly push Bitcoin below $81,164.11 [1][2][3][4][5][6]. This scenario is particularly likely if substantial spot bids ranging from $81,000 to $81,250 fail to absorb the incoming pressure [1][2][3][4][5][6]. However, the market's resolution convention is crucial; a brief decline or "wick" below the $81,164.11 target may not be sufficient if the specified settlement average for comparable 15-minute BTC contracts remains above that level [2][8][9][10][11][12].
Key support structures and concentrated liquidations precede the target breach. Immediate support below the current market price primarily consists of approximately $81,700–$83,300 in leveraged-long liquidations, followed by substantial spot bids around $81,000–$81,250; a break through this bid zone would materially increase the vulnerability of $81,164.11 [4][5]. A reasonable estimate suggests that roughly $30M–$45M of additional futures-long liquidation pressure, concentrated around $81,672–$81,686, could be enough to test $81,164.11 if these spot bids do not absorb it [1][3][4][5][6]. While a broader Binance-futures liquidation map indicates approximately $549M of estimated liquidation exposure below $82,623, its largest distinct clusters are located significantly lower, implying this sum acts as general downside fuel rather than an immediate, focused trigger [6]. It is important to note that converting spot selling into a precise dollar threshold is challenging due to the dynamic, fragmented, and partly modeled nature of order-book liquidity [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Bitcoin Liquidation Levels on 8 October 2026 | MMTC Pulsepulsebymmtc.com
  2. 2Bitcoin heatmap reads a pull down toward $82,052, 0.31% below | OwlChartowlchart.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Liquidation Levels Today (8 October 2026) – Live Magnets | MMTC Pulsepulsebymmtc.com
  4. 4Is Bitcoin Headed to $81,000? What On-Chain Data Shows | Criptor.netcriptor.net
  5. 5Bitcoin Order Book Heatmap — Live BTC Liquidity | In-Cryptoin-crypto.app
  6. 6BTC Liquidation Heatmap and Order Book Map | PumpGlasspumpglass.com
  7. 7Bitcoin's US$83,000 test: Can institutional demand hold the line? | e27e27.co
  8. 8BTC Up or Down - 15 Min — 2026-10-08 12:45 UTC | Unhedged.ggunhedged.gg
  9. 9October 8, 2026: BTC 15 min · 12:30–12:45 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  10. 10October 8, 2026: BTC 15 min · 5:00–5:15 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  11. 11October 8, 2026: BTC 15 min · 1:30–1:45 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  12. 12October 8, 2026: BTC 15 min · 1:15–1:30 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com

6. What specific technical indicators and on-chain data support the prevailing prediction market odds of Bitcoin holding above $81,500 on October 8?

Binance Bid Wall$81,000 - $81,250 (since October 3) [1]
BTC Exchange Outflow (Oct 5)24,073 BTC [2]
October 8 Spot-Bitcoin-ETF Outflows~$485M [3]
Several indicators suggest Bitcoin may hold above the $81,500 threshold. Technical analysis highlights significant support from a bid wall on Binance, noted between $81,000 and $81,250 since October 3 [1][3]. A 4-hour technical snapshot indicated Bitcoin was just above its 200-period EMA at $82,179.85 [4][3]. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was deeply oversold at 28, with the lower Bollinger band positioned at $81,838.73, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound [4][3]. Microstructure data further supported a balanced range trading environment, characterized by positive short-term spot/perpetual Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) and modest aggregate funding [1]. On-chain data also revealed a notable outflow of 24,073 BTC from exchanges on October 5, which typically reduces selling pressure [2][3]. These collective factors align with prediction market odds, where the $82,000-$84,000 range was leading at 48% for October 8, supporting Bitcoin's stability above $81,500 [5].
However, the market faces notable downside risks from various factors. Combined spot and ETF volume averaged approximately $6.8 billion over the past seven days, while the Coinbase Premium Index registered negative at -0.056 [3]. More specifically, October 8 saw reported spot-Bitcoin-ETF outflows nearing $485 million [3][2]. Open interest has been decreasing towards $26 billion, accompanied by weakened short-term demand and MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) [6][7]. Near-term liquidity signals also indicate vulnerability; an OwlChart heatmap identified the nearest liquidation level at $82,052, merely 0.31% below the target price [8]. Other reports highlighted a long-liquidation cluster between $81,700 and $83,300, suggesting that a brief dip below $81,500 remains a possibility [6][7]. It is crucial to note that the specific Robinhood contract in question resolves based on a 15-minute average comparison against a target of $81,164.11, rather than a simple momentary price threshold [9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Bitcoin Market Microstructure Archive: 2026-10-08 | thru.capitalthru.capital
  2. 2Is Bitcoin Headed to $81,000? What On-Chain Data Showscryptotoday.ai
  3. 3Bitcoin Drops to $83,079 as Glassnode Flags $81K Support · TheCryptoDeskthecryptodesk.com
  4. 4Glassnode: Bitcoin Slides Toward $81K Support | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.Newsblockchain.news
  5. 5Bitcoin price on October 8?polymarket.com
  6. 6Bitcoin Price Prediction as ETF Outflows Hit Highest Level Since June Amid Strengthening Dollarcoingape.com
  7. 7Bitcoin Price Keeps Falling: Here’s What Is Driving the Sell-Offcoinpedia.org
  8. 8Bitcoin heatmap reads a pull down toward $82,052, 0.31% below | OwlChartowlchart.com
  9. 9BTC 15 min · 11:45–12:00 PM EDT - Robinhoodrobinhood.com

7. How does selling pressure from spot Bitcoin ETF outflows compare to positioning in derivatives markets like CME and Binance for the October 8 timeframe?

U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Net Outflows (Oct 7)$484.9M [1]
October-to-date Negative ETF Flows$163.3M [1]
Long Liquidations Modeled Near $81,686 (Binance)$42.7M [2]
Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows signaled significant bearish pressure during October. For the October 8 timeframe, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced considerable net outflows, with $484.9 million recorded on October 7 alone. This reversed previous positive flows, leading to approximately $163.3 million in negative flows for the month-to-date [1]. This sustained selling from ETFs was identified as the stronger outright bearish signal in the market during this period [1][3][2][4].
Derivatives markets indicated overall risk reduction, not aggressive directional bets. In contrast to the clear bearish signal from ETFs, positioning in derivatives markets reflected a decrease in overall risk rather than aggressive speculative positions. Aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest was approximately $26 billion, marking a nearly 10% decline since September 22, while futures demand remained relatively stable at around 32,000 BTC [5][6]. Intraday derivatives data for October 8 presented a mixed picture, showing both near-zero change and instances of falling open interest alongside negative perpetual Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) and aggressive perpetual selling [3]. The most immediate vulnerability in derivatives was an estimated $42.7 million in long liquidations modeled near $81,686 on Binance [2].
ETF outflows set a bearish tone, amplified by derivative liquidation risks. While the significant outflows from ETFs established a foundational bearish pressure, derivatives markets primarily served to amplify potential downside once critical support levels were breached, notably the $81.7K mark [1][3][2][4]. A market move towards the $81,164.11 target would likely necessitate initial spot weakness to trigger these long liquidations, subsequently testing the established Binance bid zone situated between $81.0K and $81.25K [7][5][1][3][2].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Bitcoin ETF Flow (US$m) - Farside Investorsfarside.co.uk
  2. 2Bitcoin Liquidation Levels on 8 October 2026 | MMTC Pulsepulsebymmtc.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Market Microstructure Archive: 2026-10-08 | thru.capitalthru.capital
  4. 4BTC Funding Rate on Binance: Live Rate, APR and History | ArbTidearbtide.com
  5. 5Bitcoin Price Prediction as ETF Outflows Hit Highest Level Since June Amid Strengthening Dollarcoingape.com
  6. 6CryptoQuant: Bitcoin demand turns positive despite correction | ForkLogforklog.com
  7. 7Bitcoin ETFs post biggest outflow since June, can BTC price hold $82K?crypto.news

8. What high-frequency data is available to quantify the 'turn-of-the-15-minute-candle' effect for the 12:00 PM EDT period on recent high-volume trading days?

Average Turn-of-Candle Gain0.58 basis points per minute (2021 study) [1][2][3][4]
T-statisticsAbove 9 across seven exchanges (2021 study) [1][2][3][4]
Highest Reported Daily BTC Volume$46.53B (Oct. 2) [5][6][7]
Quantifying the "turn-of-candle" effect requires specific data and comparative analysis. To measure this phenomenon, especially for the 12:00 PM EDT period on high-volume trading days, the recommended design compares the 11:45:00–11:59:59 EDT candle with the subsequent 12:00:00–12:14:59 EDT candle [5][8][9][10]. This analysis necessitates exchange-level 1-minute trades, OHLCV data, and order-book statistics, which can be aggregated into 15-minute windows [5][7][8][11]. High-frequency data providers typically offer detailed 1-minute BTC/USD statistics, including open, high, low, close, VWAP, trade counts, and top-of-book depth [5][8][7].
Published evidence confirms a distinct quarter-hour effect in Bitcoin returns. Research from 2021 supports a notable quarter-hour effect in Bitcoin returns, showing a concentration of activity at minutes 0, 15, 30, and 45 of each hour [1][2][3][4]. Studies have reported an average turn-of-candle gain of 0.58 basis points per minute with t-statistics exceeding 9 across seven different exchanges [1][2][3][4]. More recent findings also indicate bursts in volume, volatility, and trade activity occurring immediately after these quarter-hour boundaries, particularly within the initial 10 seconds [3][4].
High-volume day analysis demands specific metrics and careful data handling. For evaluating events like Oct. 8, 2026, it is crucial to emphasize recent high-volume trading days for comparative purposes, such as Oct. 2 ($46.53B reported daily BTC volume), Oct. 5 ($30.24B), and Oct. 1 ($32.80B) [5][6][7]. Key metrics for measurement should encompass close-to-close return, VWAP return, high-low range, realized volatility, trade count, notional turnover, and buy-minus-sell imbalance [5][8][9][10]. Researchers must acknowledge critical data caveats, including venue fragmentation, differences between BTC-USD and BTC-USDT, varying candle timezone and boundary conventions, and the potential for incomplete datasets [7][8][9][10][11]. A robust methodology requires using a consistent venue or a volume-weighted multi-venue composite and verifying that the 12:00 EDT candle is fully closed before evaluation [7][8][9][10][11].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Turn-of-the-candle effect in bitcoin returns: Heliyoncell.com
  2. 2Turn-of-the-candle effect in bitcoin returnspmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
  3. 3The Quarter-Hour Effect: Periodic Algorithmic Trading... - arXivarxiv.org
  4. 4Inside the 15-minute trading pulse that moves $14 billion in Bitcoin perpetual futures - Crinancecrinance.com
  5. 5https://cryptostruct.com/api/analyze/instrument-last-24h-minutes/16411?format=csvcryptostruct.com
  6. 6Bitcoin Price History October 2026 | StatMuse Moneystatmuse.com
  7. 7Bitcoin to US Dollartwelvedata.com
  8. 8https://docs.koinju.io/data/ohlcvdocs.koinju.io
  9. 9Do You Have Historical Data for BTC/USDT on Binance, and Should I Use REST or Flat Files?coinapi.io
  10. 10CoinAPI.io - Market Data API > Docs > How-to Guides > Get Historical OHLCV Data Using CoinAPIcoinapi.io
  11. 11CryptoDataDownload — APIapi.cryptodatadownload.com

9. How might order book imbalances on Coinbase and Kraken specifically impact the CF Benchmarks index's final 60-second price average?

CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate aggregation window60-minute window [1][2]
Prediction market contract series duration15-minute real-time CF series [3]
Order book snapshot dateOctober 8, 2026 [4][5][6]
Order book imbalances can influence real-time CF indices, but methodology limits impact. Order book imbalances on exchanges such as Coinbase and Kraken can influence a CF Benchmarks real-time index by affecting its consolidated executable depth [7][8][3][9][2]. This impact, however, is mitigated by the inclusion of other constituent exchanges and by methodological caps that limit order size and consolidate data [7][8][3]. In contrast, the standard CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR) does not directly incorporate order books into its final calculation; instead, it aggregates executed trades over a 60-minute window [1][2]. For reference-rate calculations, order-book imbalances only have an indirect effect, influencing actual trades and short-term prices, as unexecuted bids and asks are not direct inputs to the trade-based calculation [10][1][2].
Sell-side imbalances typically lower index prices; buy-side imbalances usually raise them. For a real-time CF index, a sell-side imbalance, where asks are consumed or bids are withdrawn, would tend to lower the consolidated executable mid-price [3]. Conversely, a buy-side imbalance, where bids absorb sells or asks are lifted, would tend to push it higher [3]. This directional effect is diluted by the participation of other constituent exchanges and by the index's methodology, which includes order-size caps and consolidation [7][8][3].
Specific market data on October 8, 2026, lacks precise predictive power. Snapshots from October 8, 2026, revealed mixed conditions, with Coinbase showing varying bid-ask dynamics at different times [4][5][6]. These were resting orders and do not, by themselves, establish the final benchmark value [4][5][6]. Importantly, these market data were not synchronized with the specific 11:45 AM-12:00 PM EDT window relevant to the prediction market contract and do not provide a verified CF index print or a precise probability for BTC finishing above or below $81,164.11 [4][5][6]. Therefore, while the evidence supports the underlying directional mechanics, it does not allow for a confident binary prediction [4][5][6].
Sources (10)
  1. 1CME CF Cryptocurrencydocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  2. 2FAQ: CME CF Single-Asset Cryptocurrency Benchmarks - CME Groupcmegroup.com
  3. 3Analysis of the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate and CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Indexsmallake.kr
  4. 4Bitcoin Sell Orders Outpace Bids Across Several Listed Exchanges | TokenPosttokenpost.com
  5. 5Coinbase spot BTC has a buy order of approxim...chaincatcher.com
  6. 6Bitcoin Market Microstructure Archive: 2026-10-08 | thru.capitalthru.capital
  7. 7CME CF Cryptocurrencydocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  8. 8CF Spot Ratesdocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  9. 9CME CF Cryptocurrencydocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  10. 10CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR) Methodology Guidecmegroup.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

On October 8, BTC traded below $83,000, following U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows totaling roughly $487 million on October 7 [1][2]. Broader macro headwinds included higher Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and oil prices above $104, all exerting pressure on risk assets [3]. FOMC minutes released October 7 indicated most officials considered another rate increase appropriate before year-end [4][2]. The October 27–28 meeting was cited as the next potential date for a hike, with approximately 18% market-implied odds reported October 8 [4][2]. This directional catalyst balance favored bearish or volatile conditions [1][4][2][5][3].
Technical analysis for October 8 identified near-term support at approximately $83,000/$82,500 [4]. The next important support zone was $81,000–$81,500 [4][5]. An initial reclaim level was cited at $84,200; a break below support could expose $78,000–$80,000 or lower [4][5]. The requested Robinhood contract for October 8, 2026, 11:45–12:00 PM EDT, targeted $81,164.11 [6]. This threshold sat below the reported $82,600–$83,000 trading area and near the $81,000–$81,500 support zone [1][4][2][5][3]. The contract resolves on the 15-minute change in the CF Benchmarks BRTI reference value, not a simple spot-price comparison, settling on the average of 60 one-second RTI observations from the final minute, rounded to $0.01 [6][7][1][4][2][5][3]. Separately, a Polymarket October 8 market indicated $82,000–$84,000 as the leading end-of-day range at 48%, followed by $84,000–$86,000 at 25%, reflecting crowd-implied probabilities [8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: October 08, 2026
  • Expiration: October 15, 2026
  • Closes: October 08, 2026
Sources (8)
  1. 1Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP extend sell-off amid ETF outflowsfxstreet.com
  2. 2Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC slips below $83,000 amid ETF outflows, macro headwindstmgm-asia.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Price Keeps Falling: Here’s What Is Driving the Sell-Offcoinpedia.org
  4. 4Bitcoin Price Analysis October 8, 2026: BTC Falls Below $83K as Fed Minutes Signal More Rate Hikes |Bitcoin Price Analysis October 8, 2026: BTC Falls Below $83K as Fed Minutes Signal More Rate Hikes UseTheBitcoinusethebitcoin.com
  5. 5Bitcoin bulls are in no hurryfxstreet.com
  6. 6BTC 15 min · 11:45–12:00 PM EDT - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  7. 7October 8, 2026: BTC 15 min · 11:30–11:45 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  8. 8Bitcoin price on October 8?polymarket.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 9 resolved YES, 11 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXBTC15M-26OCT081145-45: NO (Oct 08, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT081130-30: NO (Oct 08, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT081115-15: NO (Oct 08, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT081100-00: YES (Oct 08, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT081045-45: NO (Oct 08, 2026)