Short Answer

SOL is reported to trade at approximately $91.80-$91.86 at 5 PM EST on November 2, 2026, indicating the price will be $89 or above. Bearish technical indicators and significant ETF outflows support this outcome, which the market prices at 99.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

A sharp drop in market probability on November 2, 2026, appears to be a reaction to news of significant outflows from US spot-SOL exchange-traded funds. Reports of $71.47 million in weekly outflows coincided with a 59 percentage point collapse in the contract's price, from 75% to 16%. This bearish sentiment reversed gains from the previous day.

The preceding spike on November 1 was primarily driven by the underlying asset's spot price. SOL was trading in a range of $94.25–$95.48, well above the thresholds of several related prediction markets. This led traders to bid the probability up by 45 percentage points, from 30% to 75%, to better reflect the live trading price of the asset.

SOL is reported to settle above $91, driven by its approximate $91.80-$91.86 price.
The price likely will not exceed $91.9999, given the approximate $91.80-$91.86 valuation.
Bearish technical indicators and significant ETF outflows weigh on the price.

Current Context

SOL prediction markets implied a $93-$94 range for November 2, 2026. Robinhood showed leading threshold outcomes at 76% for $93 or above and 75% for $92 or above ^[1]. Public.com's corresponding market indicated $91 and $93 thresholds, with approximately $145,742.82 in volume ^[2]^[3]. Event contracts settle using the CF Benchmarks SOLUSD Real-Time Index, defined as the simple average of 60 observations during the final minute before the specified time ^[2]^[3]. The available search results do not provide the resolved RTI average ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4].

Bearish technicals and significant ETF outflows pressured SOL around November 2. SOL traded around $95.48 earlier that day but remained below its 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages of $103.81, $99.96, and $98.08, respectively ^[4]. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was near 31, and SOL had lost the $97.76 horizontal support ^[4]. Institutional flow weakness was a principal negative catalyst, with FXStreet reporting $71.47 million of net outflows from U.S.-listed spot SOL ETFs in the preceding week, marking the largest withdrawals since launch and the fourth consecutive week of outflows ^[4]. A separate tracker showed broad crypto ETF outflows on October 30, though it did not isolate the SOL figure ^[5].

Key network developments and product launches offered counter-narrative to short-term pressure. These included Anza's recommendation of Agave v4.4.0 for mainnet-beta, with feature activation planned for November 9, and Firedancer v26.10.5 as a mainnet-ready release ^[6]. A 90% rent reduction was expected through Agave 4.4 in November ^[7]. Ondo launched seven tokenized portfolio products on Solana, and an Akash governance vote concluded November 2, with reports showing 98% support while the vote was still ongoing ^[6]^[8]. Longer-horizon expert and market views diverged: Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick forecast $250 for year-end 2026, which contrasted with the Robinhood 2026 prediction market showing only 23% for SOL above $150 ^[9]^[1]. These are not directly comparable due to their different nature as an analyst target versus a live event-market probability.

Sources (9)

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability

Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: $92 or above

📉 November 02, 2026: 59.0pp drop

Price decreased from 75.0% to 16.0%

What happened: While the specified 59.0 percentage point prediction market drop cannot be independently verified, the primary drivers for a significant bearish shift on November 2, 2026, appear to be a confluence of market structure factors and news. These included $71.47 million in weekly US spot-SOL ETF outflows—the largest since launch—a whale depositing 1.49 million SOL ($148.8 million) to exchanges, and approximately $96 million of SOL sold by the Binance hacker ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. Such events collectively created substantial selling pressure and negative sentiment, coinciding with the market date. Social media activity was irrelevant as a primary driver, with no identified posts or viral narratives contributing to a bearish movement.

Outcome: $89 or above

📈 November 01, 2026: 63.0pp spike

Price increased from 30.0% to 93.0%

What happened: The 63.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for SOL to be "$89 or above" on November 1, 2026, was primarily driven by the asset's established trading price consistently above that threshold. On November 2, SOL was trading around $94.25–$95.48 ^[5]^[2]^[1], comfortably exceeding the $89 mark, with forecast models corroborating this projection ^[6]. Although mixed catalysts including some adoption headlines were reported, they were alongside bearish factors, suggesting a consolidation of confidence that SOL would remain above $89 rather than a new bullish surge ^[5]^[2]^[1]^[7]^[8]. Social media activity was irrelevant as no specific posts from key figures or viral narratives were identified as influencing this price movement.

Sources (8)

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the price of SOL is $91 or above at 5 PM EST on November 2, 2026. Conversely, it resolves to NO if the SOL price is below $91 at that specific time. The provided content does not detail the specific source used to determine the SOL price for settlement.

Market Discussion

Prediction markets for SOL on Nov 2, 2026 at 5pm EST indicated varying expectations, with leading outcomes ranging from "$89 or above" ^[1] to "$92 or above" ^[2] or a bracket of "$94 to $94.9999" ^[3]. Commentary on Nov 2, 2026 described SOL trading near the mid-$90s, though it faced bearish pressure from spot ETF outflows and whale deposits, with volatility anticipated ^[4].

Sources (4)

5. Trust Index

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up

Integrity80% of score75Good

Market integrity is low (59), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score24Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score65Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile

Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply

6. What level of cumulative net inflows or outflows for spot Solana ETFs between Q1 and Q3 2026 would signal a decisive shift in institutional sentiment?

Decisive Inflow Signal	$1.5B-$2.0B net inflows by end of Q3 2026 ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]
Decisive Outflow Signal	$250M-$500M net outflows from Q1 starting base ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]
Weekly Inflows Background Noise	$10M-$60M ^[3]^[4]

Decisive institutional sentiment for Solana ETFs is gauged by specific flow thresholds. Cumulative net inflows between $1.5 billion and $2.0 billion by the end of Q3 2026 would signal a decisive strengthening, while cumulative net outflows of $250 million to $500 million from the Q1 starting base would indicate a decisive deterioration ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. These figures serve as analytical thresholds rather than published consensus forecasts ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. A truly decisive positive signal necessitates breadth and durability, characterized by consistent inflows across multiple products and repeated weekly positive flows, rather than concentrated activity in a single product or brief spikes ^[1]^[5]^[3]^[6]. Weekly inflows ranging from $10 million to $60 million are considered background noise, and any break in a consistent streak of positive weeks would undermine the argument for robust institutional demand ^[3]^[4].

Significant Solana ETF inflows were observed in Q3 2026, but durability concerns persist. Institutional distribution expanded during 2026, with Morgan Stanley launching a Solana ETP on July 28, which was intended to include a staking feature, highlighting the relevance of ETF flows as a measure of institutional access ^[7]. By November 2, 2026, the realized cumulative flow picture showed approximately $1.4 billion to $1.54 billion in net inflows by late Q3/October, falling within the strong-positive zone ^[8]^[9]^[3]. However, this positive signal is tempered by late-October weakness and concentration in specific products, suggesting these flows alone do not definitively prove durable institutional conviction ^[8]^[9]^[3]. While ETF flows contribute to sentiment for the November 2, 2026 SOL-price prediction market, sources caution that recent flow volumes were too small relative to SOL market capitalization to account for significant price movements ^[8]^[3]^[4].

Sources (9)

7. What on-chain metrics, such as daily active users and TVL, support or contradict analyst price targets like Standard Chartered's $250 forecast for SOL in 2026?

Standard Chartered end-2026 SOL price target	$250 (from $310) ^[1]^[2]^[3]
SOL-denominated TVL high in 2026	Crossed 80 million SOL (February 2026) ^[4]^[5]
Prediction market chance of SOL > $250 in 2026	6% ^[6]^[7]

Standard Chartered's $250 SOL target faced a significant reality check. The firm had previously revised its end-2026 forecast downwards to $250 from an initial $310 in February 2026 ^[1]^[2]^[3]. However, by early October 2026, SOL was trading between $110 and $121, further declining to $91.61 by November 2, 2026, with a market capitalization of $54.07 billion ^[8]^[9]^[10]. Achieving the $250 target would have required a significant gain of 107-126% in less than three months, leading analysts to describe the target as facing a 'reality check' ^[8]^[9].

Solana's on-chain metrics consistently showed robust network activity in 2026. The SOL-denominated Total Value Locked (TVL) reached all-time highs, exceeding 80 million SOL in February 2026, indicating sustained capital on the network regardless of the USD price fluctuating between $70 and $100 ^[4]^[5]. As of November 2, 2026, Solana's DeFi TVL stood at $5.403 billion, positioning it as the 4th largest chain by TVL ^[10]. Concurrently, the network recorded 1.98 million active addresses and processed 82.55 million transactions within a 24-hour period ^[10]. Additionally, average transaction fees remained remarkably low at $0.0035 by October 28, 2026 ^[11].

Prediction markets overwhelmingly suggested SOL would not reach its $250 target. Markets tracking 'How high will Solana get in 2026?' showed a modest 19% probability of SOL exceeding $150, a 13% chance for it to surpass $200, and only a 6% chance of reaching above $250 ^[6]^[7]. Robinhood's prediction market data indicated that SOL was expected to settle around $91-$92 by November 2, 2026 ^[12]^[13]^[14]. Furthermore, Kalshi's data for the same date revealed only a 2% chance of SOL being $100 or higher, with the market 'Will Solana end 2026 over $500?' pricing a 96% probability for a 'No' outcome ^[13]^[15]^[16].

Sources (16)

8. How does Solana's network growth in 2026, particularly in developer activity and transaction volume, compare to that of its primary competitor, Ethereum?

Solana Active Addresses	2,703,195 (Oct 28, 2026) ^[1]^[2]
Solana Average Fee	$0.0035 (2026) ^[1]^[2]
Ethereum Monthly Active Developers	5,800 (2026) ^[3]

In 2026, Solana significantly surpassed Ethereum mainnet in user activity and transaction efficiency. As of October 28, 2026, Solana recorded 2,703,195 active addresses, approximately 4.1 times more than Ethereum's 666,236 ^[1]^[2]. Solana also processed a substantially higher transaction volume, reaching 150,997,570 transactions, about 75.6 times more than Ethereum's 1,996,106, while maintaining significantly lower average transaction fees of $0.0035 compared to Ethereum's $0.13 ^[1]^[2]. Throughout 2026, monthly decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes consistently showed Solana exceeding Ethereum mainnet, including January, where Solana recorded $139.9 billion versus Ethereum's $53.1 billion, and September, with $79.2 billion compared to Ethereum's $43.2 billion ^[4].

Conversely, Ethereum maintained a stronger position in capital and developer engagement. Ethereum demonstrated a larger and more active developer community, with approximately 5,800 monthly active developers, outperforming Solana's 2,500 ^[3]. On October 28, 2026, Ethereum's Total Value Locked (TVL) was substantially higher at $62.47 billion, whereas Solana's TVL stood at $9.47 billion ^[1]^[2]. When accounting for the broader Ethereum ecosystem, which includes Layer 2 networks such as Base and Arbitrum, its overall DEX volume became roughly comparable to or exceeded Solana's in several months, notably in September 2026 ^[4].

Sources (4)

9. Historically, how much has the CF Benchmarks SOLUSD Real-Time Index deviated from Coinbase's spot price during periods of high market volatility?

Coinbase Monthly Max Deviation Range	0.24% to 0.91% ^[1]
Highest Observed Coinbase Deviation	0.91% (June 2023) ^[1]
Highest Constituent Exchange Deviation	5.39% (Gemini, January 2023) ^[1]

The CF Benchmarks SOLUSD Real-Time Index aggregates data from multiple exchanges. This index gathers order-book data from various exchanges, including Coinbase, Gemini, and Kraken, and publishes updates approximately every second; it does not solely reflect Coinbase's spot price ^[2]^[1]. A study from May 2022 to April 2024 indicated a strong cross-exchange price correlation among these platforms, though this relationship notably weakened during the extreme volatility of the FTX bankruptcy in November–December 2022 ^[1].

Coinbase's deviations from other exchanges ranged between 0.24% and 0.91%. Historical data shows that Coinbase's volume-weighted-median deviations from the median of other constituent exchanges monthly varied from 0.24% to 0.91% ^[1]. The highest recorded Coinbase deviation during this period was 0.91% in June 2023 ^[1]. While a specific figure for Coinbase's deviation from the index during the extreme volatility of the FTX bankruptcy was not provided, research noted that the maximum deviation observed for any constituent exchange did not exceed 5.39%, which occurred with Gemini in January 2023 ^[1]. Furthermore, a large-trade replication exercise on the most volatile day demonstrated a slippage of 177 basis points (1.77%) ^[1].

Sources (2)

10. How might the full mainnet implementations of the Firedancer client and Agave validator software impact Solana's network performance and stability by Q4 2026?

Firedancer primary function	Increases network headroom for transaction spikes ^[1]^[2]^[3]
Agave client stake	Holds majority of stake (mid-2026) ^[1]^[4]^[2]
Firedancer/Frankendancer stake	Roughly 20–26% of staked SOL ^[1]^[4]^[2]

The full mainnet implementations of the Firedancer client and Agave validator software contribute significantly to Solana's network performance and stability by Q4 2026. Firedancer significantly boosts network capacity to handle transaction surges. The full Firedancer client implementation primarily serves to increase network headroom, allowing Solana to better absorb transaction spikes without performance degradation ^[1]^[2]^[3]. This capability is crucial for maintaining performance and stability during periods of high transaction volume. However, the Firedancer client does not directly raise the baseline sustained throughput, which remains bounded by consensus and state management constraints ^[1]^[2]^[3].

Increased client diversity, particularly with Firedancer, strengthens network resilience. As of mid-2026, the Solana network operates with a mix of validator clients, where the Agave client, including Jito-Solana forks, holds the majority of staked SOL ^[1]^[4]^[2]. The Firedancer client and its Frankendancer hybrid account for approximately 20–26% of staked SOL, marking a significant step toward client diversity ^[1]^[4]^[2]. This diversification, involving both Agave and Firedancer, contributes to overall network stability by reducing the risk of single-client outages ^[1]^[4]^[2].

Sources (4)

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The Solana Breakpoint 2026 conference in London, scheduled for November 15-17, is a primary catalyst. Over 8,000 attendees from more than 100 countries are expected, with a focus on stablecoins, payments, tokenized RWAs, AI-driven markets, and programmable capital under the 'Token Supercycle' theme ^[1]^[2]^[3]. Pre-events include the Solana Hacker House (November 1-12), AI Day (November 13), 200ms (November 13), Scale or Die (November 14), and Block Zero (November 15) ^[1]. Separately, the Alpenglow upgrade, activated on mainnet October 21-22, replaces Tower BFT with Votor and Rotor, targeting transaction finality of approximately 150 milliseconds, an 85-fold improvement from approximately 12.8 seconds ^[4]^[5]. November price action will depend on observed post-launch performance and demand ^[4].

Market sentiment is influenced by recent spot Solana ETF flows, which recorded $71.47 million in weekly withdrawals, the largest since their launch ^[6]. A reversal in ETF flows is a key catalyst ^[7]^[8]. Concurrently, whales holding 10,000+ SOL increased their holdings by 1.58% weekly, with exchange balances falling 4.91% after approximately 2.6 million SOL were withdrawn ^[9]^[10]. As of November 2, SOL extended a five-week losing streak, trading at $95.48, below the 50-day EMA ($103.81), 100-day EMA ($99.96), and 200-day EMA ($98.08) ^[6]. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 31 indicated emerging oversold conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remained in negative territory ^[6]. CoinGecko data shows a 57.5% chance of SOL reaching $100 by the end of November 2026, alongside an 86.5% probability of $90 support holding ^[11]. Additional catalysts include Bitcoin correlation, Agave 4.2 network performance, macro events (e.g., Fed statement or CPI print before December 1), and DeFi/on-chain momentum ^[7]^[8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

Strike Date: November 02, 2026
Expiration: November 09, 2026
Closes: November 02, 2026

Sources (11)

12. Keep Exploring

More Crypto markets See more crypto setups in the same theme. Browse all Crypto markets Keep exploring adjacent crypto markets. Track this in the app Open the live app flow and keep following this market in real time.

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

KXSOLD-26NOV0215-T99.9999: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
KXSOLD-26NOV0215-T99.7499: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
KXSOLD-26NOV0215-T99.4999: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
KXSOLD-26NOV0215-T99.2499: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
KXSOLD-26NOV0215-T98.9999: NO (Nov 02, 2026)

SOL price on Nov 2, 2026 at 5pm EST?

Short Answer

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Current Context

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

3. Significant Price Movements

Outcome: $92 or above

📉 November 02, 2026: 59.0pp drop

Outcome: $89 or above

📈 November 01, 2026: 63.0pp spike

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Market Discussion

5. Trust Index

6. What level of cumulative net inflows or outflows for spot Solana ETFs between Q1 and Q3 2026 would signal a decisive shift in institutional sentiment?

7. What on-chain metrics, such as daily active users and TVL, support or contradict analyst price targets like Standard Chartered's $250 forecast for SOL in 2026?

8. How does Solana's network growth in 2026, particularly in developer activity and transaction volume, compare to that of its primary competitor, Ethereum?

9. Historically, how much has the CF Benchmarks SOLUSD Real-Time Index deviated from Coinbase's spot price during periods of high market volatility?

10. How might the full mainnet implementations of the Firedancer client and Agave validator software impact Solana's network performance and stability by Q4 2026?

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

13. Historical Resolutions

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company

Short Answer

Current Context

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome: $92 or above

📉 November 02, 2026: 59.0pp drop

Outcome: $89 or above

📈 November 01, 2026: 63.0pp spike

Contract Snapshot

Market Discussion

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

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Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

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