Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect the Clarity Act (H.R.3633) to be signed into law in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The implied probability for the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 has collapsed since the market opened. The price has trended consistently downward from a starting point of 36.5% to its current level of 16.0%, having touched a low of 12.5%. The most significant movement occurred between late July and early August 2026, when the price fell from 36.5% to 16.0%. This sharp decline does not correspond to a specific legislative event in the provided context but rather reflects the diminishing time remaining in the 2026 calendar year for the bill to pass the Senate and be signed by the President. The bill passed the House in July 2025, but its lack of subsequent progress is the primary driver of negative sentiment.
Critically, this market has recorded zero trading volume. The price changes are not the result of transactions between participants with opposing views. Instead, they likely reflect adjustments by the market's automated liquidity mechanism or its creator. The absence of any trading activity indicates extremely low market participation and conviction. Without two-sided trade flow, the price does not represent a consensus reached through active debate. Consequently, traditional technical levels of support and resistance are not meaningful.
The price chart indicates a decisively pessimistic market sentiment. The steady decline suggests a strong belief that the legislative and political hurdles required for enactment in 2026 will not be cleared. The lack of any buying interest, evidenced by the zero-volume reading, reinforces this view. The market is pricing the bill as a long shot with a rapidly closing window for success.
  • Yes: Clarity Act faces significant Senate hurdles; currently lacks 60 votes.
  • Yes: No formal legislative progress as of August 6, 2026; stalled.
  • Yes: Divided crypto industry support and Senate Democratic objections impede passage.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Yes 17.0% 12.1% Political momentum for comprehensive crypto regulation could lead to the Clarity Act being signed into law.

Current Context

As of August 6, 2026, the Clarity Act has not been signed into law. The Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) has not been enacted [1][2][3]. The House of Representatives passed the bill on July 17, 2025, with a vote of 294-134 [1][2][4][3].
Senate progress stalled despite committee approval. The Senate Banking Committee approved an amended version of the bill in May 2026, and it was subsequently placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar on June 1, 2026 [1][2][5][6]. However, as of early August 2026, the bill faces significant procedural hurdles in the Senate. These challenges include a lack of scheduled floor time and Democratic opposition, contributing to decreased market expectations for its passage before the August recess [7][8].
The Act clarifies digital asset market structure. If signed into law, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act would establish a federal market structure regime for digital assets [9]. It classifies most digital assets as commodities and delineates jurisdictional authority between the SEC and CFTC [9]. This legislation focuses on the broader utilization of blockchain technology, rather than exclusively on cryptocurrencies [10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1All Info - H.R.3633 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  2. 2Actions - H.R.3633 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Digital...congress.gov
  3. 3The CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) Explained: How It Would Split SEC and CFTC Jurisdiction | Astraea Counselastraea.law
  4. 4H.R. 3633: Digital Asset Market Clarity Actgovtrack.us
  5. 5Lummis Releases Updated Clarity Act Textlummis.senate.gov
  6. 6CLARITY Act: Potential US Tax Implications for Digital...skadden.com
  7. 7CLARITY Act vote at risk as Democrats withhold supportcrypto.news
  8. 8CLARITY Act misses Senate agenda as deadline nearscrypto.news
  9. 92026 Mid-Year Market Outlook - CFBcfbenchmarks.com
  10. 10Chip Stock Rout Deepens on AI Debt Jitters, China Competition | Bloomberg Businessweekyoutube.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; otherwise, it resolves to "No." Resolution relies primarily on Congress.gov's legislation tracker and other official U.S. government information, though other credible reporting may be used. A bill is considered signed into law upon enactment by any mechanism, irrespective of a personal presidential signature.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Yes $0.17 $0.85 17%

Market Discussion

The market largely expects the Clarity Act (H.R.3633) not to be signed into law by the end of 2026, with current odds at just 16% for "Yes." Traders arguing for "Yes" cite strong lobbying efforts from crypto interests, potential presidential support (especially if related to pro-crypto stances), and reports of the White House reviewing revised bipartisan provisions. Conversely, those betting "No" generally express skepticism about legislative success, pointing to the inherent difficulty of passing bills and concerns that political events like midterms could derail its progress.

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Polymarket 71 Good

Largest single print on “Yes” carried 51% of its $5,723 tape (window is 17% of 24h flow; print is 2d old)

Integrity risk· Large trades

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score69Caution
Trade quality20% of score78Good

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score71Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity5 screens run · 4 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
Market integrity
65Caution

Outcome can be influenced

Outcome controlStructural risk · high confidence

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on “Yes” carried 51% of its $5,723 tape (window is 17% of 24h flow; print is 2d old)

Screened clean
Participant influenceNo conflicted participant detected. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
1 screen not run
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
60Caution

Settlement depends on token voting

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Liquidity
80Deep

Size fills near the screen price

1 contract

Yes80
Deep · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract

Yes—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Yes100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
78Good

Order book supports trading

Deep and tight enough to trade efficiently.

Outcome quality 80 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 0.0c slippage (<1% of a 5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.0c slippage (<1% of a 5c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Yes80Market scoreLiquidity80Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 80
Liquidity
80 · Deep · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 2, 2026

5. What are the key procedural milestones and potential 'must-pass' legislative vehicles for the Clarity Act in the Senate before the end of 2026?

Votes Needed for Passage60 votes [1][2][3]
Must-Pass Vehicle for 2026No evidence identified [4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]
Prediction Market Prospects for 202623-33% [2][3]
The Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) faces significant hurdles in the Senate, currently stalled without sufficient votes. The bill requires 60 votes to invoke cloture and proceed to a final passage, a threshold it has not met due to a lack of bipartisan support [1][2][3]. Major impediments include unresolved policy disputes among senators concerning ethics, illicit finance provisions, and stablecoin yield requirements, which prevent the formation of the necessary bipartisan coalition [1][3]. These procedural milestones, such as a cloture motion, remain unachieved.
The Clarity Act is not considered a "must-pass" legislative vehicle for crypto by end of 2026. As of August 6, 2026, legislative and electoral research shows no evidence of the "Clarity Act" being a pending 'must-pass' federal vehicle for crypto-related legislation [4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]. The legislative window for the bill's passage is rapidly narrowing as the Senate approaches its August recess and the November elections [2][3]. Consequently, prediction markets reflect a bearish outlook, estimating the bill's prospects for 2026 at between 23% and 33% [2][3].
Sources (16)
  1. 1CLARITY Act vote at risk as Democrats withhold supportcrypto.news
  2. 2CLARITY Act misses Senate agenda as deadline nearscrypto.news
  3. 3CLARITY Act Senate Vote: Can It Clear 60 Votes?cryptonews.com
  4. 4Enacted election legislation, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  5. 5FEC | Legal resources | Legislationfec.gov
  6. 6Ballotpedia:Index of Contents (Federal legislation) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  7. 7Absentee/mail-in voting legislation in the United States, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  8. 8The Ballot Bulletin: March 31, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  9. 9Economy and Society: February 4, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  10. 10Clarity and factual hearings for Michigan recalls - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  11. 11State of Election Administration Legislation 2025 Year-End Report:State action - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  12. 12Robe & Gavel: January 12, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  13. 13Campaign Legal Center v. FEC Memorandum Opinion and Order (23-3163) 1/30/2026fec.gov
  14. 14Dickinson County Board of Commissioners recall, Dickinson County, Michigan (2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  15. 15List of certified state ballot measures removed from the ballot by courts - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  16. 16Kansas voters to decide whether to become the 22nd state to elect supreme court members or keep unique bar-controlled commission - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org

6. What specific objections have been raised by Senate Democratic leadership and the SEC that justify the market's declining probability for the Clarity Act?

Clarity Act H.R.3633 StatusNo evidence of introduction or debate in 2026 legislative session (as of August 6, 2026) [1]
Senate Democratic OppositionConcerns over government ethics, conflicts of interest, and digital asset profits of officials [2][3][4]
SEC ObjectionsAttempts to restrict SEC jurisdiction by allowing issuers to declare assets as 'mature' or decentralized [5][6]
The Clarity Act currently lacks formal legislative progress in 2026. As of August 6, 2026, there is no evidence that a federal bill named the 'Clarity Act' (H.R.3633) has been formally introduced, debated, or considered within the 2026 legislative session [1]. Instead, congressional and SEC attention in 2026 has largely focused on reversing Trump-era banking and securities deregulation, including withdrawing ESG disclosure rules and increasing oversight of proxy advisors [7][8].
Senate Democrats oppose the Clarity Act due to ethical and financial concerns. Despite the absence of formal legislative action, Senate Democratic leadership and key dissenting Democrats object to the current draft of the Clarity Act (H.R.3633) [2][3][4]. Their primary concerns revolve around government ethics and potential conflicts of interest, specifically regarding digital asset profits held by high-level officials, including President Trump [2][3][4]. Democrats are also demanding the inclusion of stronger provisions to address illicit finance (anti-money laundering) and protections for stablecoin yield and market integrity before they would provide the necessary support to clear the Senate's 60-vote cloture threshold [9][3][4].
The SEC objects to the bill's reclassification of securities, impacting its authority. The Securities and Exchange Commission's historical objections to the bill center on provisions that would allow issuers to declare assets as 'mature' or decentralized [5][6]. The SEC argues that such a mechanism could improperly classify securities as non-securities, thereby diminishing its regulatory authority over various digital asset activities [5][6]. Consequently, prediction markets have significantly lowered the probability of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026, citing the existing legislative impasse, the approaching August 2026 recess, and the shrinking window for bipartisan compromise before the fall midterm elections [3][10][4].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Enacted election legislation, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 2Some U.S. Senate Democrats come out against Clarity Act, calling it a 'corrupt' billcoindesk.com
  3. 3CLARITY Act vote at risk as Democrats withhold supportcrypto.news
  4. 4CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026? | Manifoldmanifold.markets
  5. 5Crypto Legislation: CLARITY Act’s (H.R. 3633) Potential Effects on SEC Jurisdictioncongress.gov
  6. 6Senate Releases Updated Clarity Act Text, SEC Commissioner Addresses Crypto Vaults, and SEC and CFTC Advance 24-Hour Trading | Paul Hastings LLPpaulhastings.com
  7. 7Economy and Society: February 4, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  8. 8Wells Fargo moves proxy voting in-house - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  9. 9Democrats Oppose Current Clarity Text; Will Keep Workinggallego.senate.gov
  10. 10Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?cryptoslate.com

7. How does the Clarity Act's proposed regulatory framework for digital assets compare to the approach favored by the Biden Administration?

Bill NameDigital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act (H.R.3633) [1]
House Passage DateSeptember 18, 2025 [2]
Current StatusNot signed into law as of July 2026 [3]
The Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act (H.R.3633) proposes a new statutory market-structure framework for digital assets, designed to establish clearer definitions and an explicit division of oversight between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) [1][4][5][6][7][8]. This bipartisan initiative contrasts with the Biden Administration's prior approach, which primarily relied on existing agency enforcement, rule interpretation, and an investor-protection-first focus using current law [3][9][1][4][5][6][7][8].
The Act aims to classify most digital assets as commodities. The CLARITY Act specifically seeks to grant the CFTC primary jurisdiction over digital commodities while maintaining the SEC's authority over securities [10][3][9]. It aims to establish a federal market structure regime that classifies most digital assets as commodities and provides a pathway for decentralizing digital assets, with the goal of creating more legal certainty for issuers and intermediaries [10][3][9][1][4][5][6][7][8]. The bill passed the House and was referred to the Senate Banking Committee on September 18, 2025, clearing the Senate Banking Committee by May 2026 [2][3][1][4][5][6][7][8].
Despite differing styles, the Biden Administration now supports the Act. While the Clarity Act promotes a rules-based framework, the Biden Administration's previous approach managed crypto through agency guidance and enforcement actions under existing laws, prioritizing investor protection and compliance [3][9][1][4][5][6][7][8]. Despite these differing regulatory styles, the Biden Administration has actively supported the Clarity Act's advancement, with lead crypto adviser Patrick Witt engaging stakeholders to negotiate compromises on issues such as DeFi developer protections and stablecoin-yield provisions [11][12][13]. However, as of July 2026, the Act has not been signed into law, with an ethics provision tied to the administration remaining a primary outstanding obstacle for which White House agreement has not yet been secured [3].
Sources (13)
  1. 1seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  2. 2CFB Talks Digital Assets Episode 61: CPI Upends Rate Reckoning, CME BTC Vol. Futures Go Live in June, CLARITY Markup Moves Forward - CFBcfbenchmarks.com
  3. 32026 Mid-Year Market Outlook - CFBcfbenchmarks.com
  4. 4seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  5. 5seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  6. 6www.cnbc.comOctagon Agentcnbc.com
  7. 7www.fxempire.comOctagon Agentfxempire.com
  8. 8seekingalpha.comOctagon Agent
  9. 9Risk-On Reloadedcfbinfo.cfbenchmarks.com
  10. 10119th Congress (2025-2026): Digital Asset Market Clarity Actcongress.gov
  11. 11Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial...whitehouse.gov
  12. 12White House to speak with law enforcement groups to push Crypto's Clarity Actcoindesk.com
  13. 13White House targets July 4 for Clarity Act passage, says crypto adviser Patrick Wittcoindesk.com

8. Which moderate senators in both parties are considered the crucial swing votes for the Clarity Act, and what are their recent statements on crypto regulation?

Required Democratic votes for clotureAt least seven [1]
Current bill statusStuck in Senate, no floor vote or cloture filing as of August 6, 2026 [2][3]
Primary barrier to advancement (July 2026)Disagreement over ethics provision; no White House agreement [4]
Democratic swing votes are crucial for the Clarity Act's passage. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) requires a 60-vote cloture threshold in the Senate, necessitating support from at least seven Democratic senators [1]. Seven key Democratic swing votes have been identified: Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD), Mark Warner (D-VA), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), Cory Booker (D-NJ), Chris Coons (D-DE), and Raphael Warnock (D-GA) [1]. While Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks initially backed the bill in committee [5][6], both have since voiced concerns that its updated ethics provisions are too weak to secure their final support [5][6]. Overall opposition to the bill primarily stems from issues related to ethics, illicit finance, and stablecoin yield provisions [1]. No moderate Republican senators have been identified as crucial swing votes for this legislation [1].
The Clarity Act is stalled due to an ethics dispute. As of August 6, 2026, the CLARITY Act remains stalled in the Senate, having not undergone a floor vote or a cloture filing [2][3]. The primary impediment, as of July 2026, is an ongoing dispute over an ethics provision tied to the administration, for which White House agreement has not yet been secured [4]. The Senate is currently considering whether to advance the CLARITY Act independently if the White House does not reach a consensus on this unresolved ethics provision [4].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Crypto Groups Push for Clarity as 60 Votes Remain Elusivecryptoinamerica.com
  2. 2All Info - H.R.3633 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  3. 3Actions - H.R.3633 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Digital...congress.gov
  4. 42026 Mid-Year Market Outlook - CFBcfbenchmarks.com
  5. 5Trump-Backed CLARITY Act Text Set to Drop With No Democrats on Board, and It Needs 7 of Themnews.bitcoin.com
  6. 6Clarity Act: Ethics dispute blocks passage - CVJ.CHcryptovalleyjournal.com

9. What level of support has the Clarity Act received from major crypto industry groups versus traditional financial institutions in 2026?

Crypto industry supportDivided in early 2026 [1][2]
Coinbase actionWithdrew support in January 2026 [1][2]
Crypto leaders urging Senate61 [3]
Major crypto groups showed divided support for the Clarity Act. In early 2026, these groups displayed complex backing for the bill, engaging in intense lobbying efforts despite experiencing a notable division [4][5][6][7][3][1][2]. Prominent companies like Coinbase, Ripple, Kraken, and Circle, along with advocacy groups such as the Blockchain Association, actively campaigned for its passage [4][5][6][7][3]. However, this unity fractured when Coinbase withdrew its support in January 2026 due to concerns over specific stablecoin yield restrictions [1][2]. Despite this internal split, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins endorsed the bill, advocating for comprehensive market structure legislation, and 61 crypto leaders urged the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act with developer protections [3][2].
Traditional finance offered mixed reactions to the Clarity Act. Major banking trade associations, including the American Bankers Association and the Bank Policy Institute, voiced significant apprehension regarding the Clarity Act's stablecoin provisions [8][9][10][11]. They were concerned that the existing language could lead to deposit flight and negatively impact local lending, prompting calls for specific amendments [8][9][10][11]. Conversely, several Wall Street giants, including BlackRock, Fidelity, and Goldman Sachs, publicly supported the bill, viewing it as a crucial step toward establishing regulatory certainty [7]. The CLARITY Act is widely perceived as a catalyst for increased institutional participation, promising to reduce due-diligence hurdles for traditional finance engaging with digital assets [12][13].
Sources (13)
  1. 1Crypto Market Analysis Jan 2026: BTC Support at $86k & ETF Outflowsblog.amberdata.io
  2. 2Digital Asset Snapshot: ETFs, Stablecoins, and Derivatives Positioningblog.amberdata.io
  3. 361 Crypto Leaders Urge Senate to Pass CLARITY Act With Developer Protectionsnews.bitcoin.com
  4. 4Joint Letter - Support for Senate Floor Consideration of the Clarity Acttheblockchainassociation.org
  5. 5SWC-June2026-CoalitionLetterstandwithcrypto.org
  6. 6Crypto firms race to lock in CLARITY Act rules before the Senate window closescryptoslate.com
  7. 7Here's which Wall Street giants have backed the Clarity Actcoindesk.com
  8. 8Joint State Association Letter to the Senate on the Clarity Act | American Bankers Associationaba.com
  9. 9Banking Trades Statement on Updated Clarity Act | American Bankers Associationaba.com
  10. 10Banking Trades Statement on Updated Clarity Act - Bank Policy Institutebpi.com
  11. 11State Association Letter on CLARITY Actaba.com
  12. 122026 Mid-Year Market Outlook - CFBcfbenchmarks.com
  13. 13CF Benchmarks Newsletter Issue 90 - CFBcfbenchmarks.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) has not been signed into law as of August 6, 2026 [1][2][3]. This bill passed the House of Representatives on July 17, 2025 [1][2][3][4][5]. It is currently pending in the Senate, where the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs reported it on June 1, 2026 [1][2][3].
As of early August 2026, the bill's prospects for passage in 2026 are declining [6][7][8][9]. Senate leadership indicated it may miss its window before the summer recess [6][8][9]. Prediction markets reflect this, reducing the probability of passage to approximately 37% as of August 3, 2026 [6][7][8][9]. Key hurdles include unresolved debates over ethics provisions regarding senior officials, DeFi guidance, and stablecoin yield rules [6][8][9]. Time constraints from the upcoming November 2026 midterm elections also impede passage [6][8][9].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Closes: January 01, 2027
Sources (9)
  1. 1Text - H.R.3633 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Digital...congress.gov
  2. 2H.R. 3633: Digital Asset Market Clarity Actgovtrack.us
  3. 3All Info - H.R.3633 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  4. 4Where Next for the CLARITY Act After a Week That Left it...cfbenchmarks.com
  5. 5CF Benchmarks Newsletter Issue 99 - CFBcfbenchmarks.com
  6. 6Clarity Act stall: what happens if crypto's big bill failscrypto.news
  7. 7Clarity bill missing from U.S. Senate schedule, Aug. 7 seen as pivotaldigitaltoday.co.kr
  8. 8Clarity Act expected to miss its window before Congress' summer break, leadership sayscoindesk.com
  9. 92 weeks left for Clarity: State of Cryptocoindesk.com