What will Mark Kelly say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell?
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- No public record exists of Senator Kelly appearing on The Last Word.
- Had Kelly appeared, he likely would have criticized Trump's economic policies and Iran.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump (3+ times) | 2.0% | 0.1% | References to specific political figures depend on the interview's focus and current events. |
| Republican | 1.0% | 0.1% | References to political parties are common, but specific labels may depend on context. |
| Tariff | 1.0% | 0.1% | Mark Kelly may speak about existing or proposed economic tariffs. |
| 2028 / Campaign | 1.0% | 0.1% | Mark Kelly may discuss potential future campaign plans leading up to 2028. |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 1.0% | 0.1% | Artificial intelligence is a rising topic, but not a primary focus for all political discussions. |
Current Context
Sources (18)
- 1Sen. Mark Kelly Declares Trump ‘Is Ruining This Country,’ Citing Food Costs, Gas Prices, and Iran Warpolitical.org
- 2Mark Kelly: Donald Trump 'Is Ruining This Country' | Altoalto.gab.com
- 3‘Assault on liberty’: Trump blasted by Democratic Sen. Kelly over archms.now
- 4‘ASSAULT ON LIBERTY!’: Trump blasted by Dem Senator Kelly over arch – The Financial Newsthefinancial.news
- 5Trump blasted by Dem Senator Kelly over arch - YouTubeyoutube.com
- 6Iran War Impeachment EXPLODES; Mark Kelly & Massie... - YouTubeyoutube.com
- 7Sen. Mark Kelly on Dems’ Low Polls Amid the Iran War: Trump Entered the War with Iran ‘Without a Strategic Goal,’ the Admin Is Now ‘Flailing’:: Grabien Newsnews.grabien.com
- 8Sen. Mark Kelly: It’s Trump’s Fault that Iran’s Close to Having a Nuclear Weaponsgrabien.com
- 9Kelly says he won't decide on a presidential run until after the 2026 electionkjzz.org
- 10Sen Kelly, 11 other lawmakers say growing prediction markets...kjzz.org
- 11Who will win the next… — Mark Kelly — 3.1% on Kalshipredictionbubbles.net
- 12Sen. Kelly Calls Articles of Impeachment Against Defense Secy. Hegseth "Ironic" | Video | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
- 13Sen. Mark Kelly Says He Believes Trump Admin. Remains Undeterred Despite Failed Indictment of Democratic Lawmakers | Video | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
- 14Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) Speaks With C-SPAN in Manchester, NH | Video | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
- 15Sen. Mark Kelly and Rep. Ro Khanna Campaign for New Hampshire Candidates | Video | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
- 16Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and U.S. House Candidate Stefany Shahee (D-NH) Speak With C-SPAN | Video | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
- 17Mark Kelly: We’ve Got to Win the Election this 2026 and 2028 and Put this Period of History Behind Us:: Grabien - The Multimedia Marketplace:: Grabien - The Multimedia Marketplacegrabien.com
- 18Mark E. Kelly | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: AI / Artificial Intelligence
📉 September 22, 2026: 63.0pp drop
Price decreased from 64.0% to 1.0%
Outcome: Republican
📈 September 21, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 46.0% to 54.0%
Sources (9)
- 1‘Assault on liberty’: Trump blasted by Democratic Sen. Kelly over archms.now
- 2WATCH: Kelly Defends Free Press, Calls Out Administration for Prioritizing Appearances Over Truth | Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) | Forthforth.news
- 3Mark Kelly (via Public) / WATCH: Kelly Defends Free Press, Calls Out Administration for Prioritizing Appearances Over Truthpubt.io
- 4MAGA Inc, other Trump-linked groups plan ad blitz to boost Republicans in midterm - The Washington Postwashingtonpost.com
- 5The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell - Apple Podcastspodcasts.apple.com
- 6Sen. Mark Kelly Declares Trump ‘Is Ruining This Country,’ Citing Food Costs, Gas Prices, and Iran Warpolitical.org
- 7Sen. Kelly: Trump and GOP Will Face a ‘Reckoning’ this November | The Politic Reviewthepoliticreview.com
- 8Sen. Kelly Calls Articles of Impeachment Against Defense Secy. Hegseth "Ironic" | Video | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
- 9Mark Kelly: Donald Trump 'Is Ruining This Country' | Altoalto.gab.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi prediction market resolves to YES if Mark Kelly mentions "Trump" three or more times during his appearance on The Last Word with Lawrence O’Donnell, and to NO if he mentions it fewer than three times. The maximum payout date is October 5, 2026, with no other special settlement conditions detailed in the provided content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump (3+ times) | $0.24 | $0.98 | 2% |
| 2028 / Campaign | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Data Center | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Republican | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Tariff | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Sen. Mark Kelly is expected to criticize President Donald Trump’s proposed triumphal arch and "attacks on Americans’ freedoms," arguing Trump is "ruining this country" and citing Americans’ difficulty affording food and gasoline [1]. Kelly will also likely discuss the "irony" of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's potential impeachment on September 18 [2], and is probable to frame Democrats' midterm message around economic frustration and affordability for working and middle-class Americans, while potentially addressing his 2028 presidential bid considerations if asked [3].
Sources (3)
5. Trust Index
The market subject can determine its own outcome.
Integrity risk· Outcome control
Trust score capped by Market integrity (20).
Includes the cost to trade: a $100 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Market integrity 20 is below the safety floor of 30, so the score can't exceed 40.
6. What recent actions by Donald Trump or developments concerning Iran are most likely to be addressed by Mark Kelly on 'The Last Word' in September 2026?
| Date of Trump's Iran statements | September 21, 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Kelly's criticism of threats | Threats could violate laws of armed conflict [3] |
| U.S. Embassy warning for Americans | Leave Iran immediately due to escalation risks [4] |
Sources (5)
- 1Iran warns of ‘new weapons’ as Trump weighs meeting with Iranian presidentnbcnews.com
- 2Trump threatens to wipe out Iran as Tehran warns of 'painful' responsecnbc.com
- 3Mark Kelly challenges Trump's threats against Iran - The Hillthehill.com
- 4Trump weighs next move in Iran war as Tehran threatens new weapons | Live Updates from Fox News Digitalfoxnews.com
- 5What will Mark Kelly say during The Last Word with Lawrence O...kalshi.com
7. How consistent has Mark Kelly's public criticism of Donald Trump's economic policies, particularly regarding gas prices and affordability, been in his 2026 media appearances?
| Message Consistency | Kelly's public criticism of Donald Trump's economic policies was highly consistent throughout his 2026 media appearances [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Core Economic Grievances | Consistently linked Trump's policies (Iran war, tariffs) to rising costs for essential goods like rent, groceries, healthcare, and gas [1][2][3][5][6][7][8] |
| Proposed Economic Relief | Advocated for temporary suspension of the federal gas tax and legislation to address price gouging and cost reduction [2][5] |
Sources (11)
- 1Mark Kelly: Trump’s Iran Policy Is Driving Up Gas Prices - MEAWW Newsnews.meaww.com
- 2Mark Kelly Calls For Gas Tax Relief Amid Rising Prices: 'I Don't See How This War Helps Americans' - Benzingabenzinga.com
- 3U.S. Senator Mark Kelly 9-7-26 - New Hampshire Today | iHeartiheart.com
- 4Sen. Mark Kelly Declares Trump ‘Is Ruining This Country,’ Citing Food Costs, Gas Prices, and Iran Warpolitical.org
- 5Everything costs too much—and Washington is focused on the wrong things.youtube.com
- 6Sen. Mark Kelly on Global Economy Amid U.S.-Israel Conflict with Iran | Video | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
- 7Transcript: Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly on "Face the Nation...cbsnews.com
- 8ICYMI: Kelly Blasts Trump for Enriching Himself While Americans Can't Afford Their Lives - Senator Mark Kellykelly.senate.gov
- 9Sen. Mark Kelly on ongoing war with Iran, midterm elections and Bill Pulte - KYMAkyma.com
- 10ICYMI: Kelly Blasts Trump Admin for Caring More About Appearances Than Accountability as New Images Emerge of Iran War Damage - Senator Mark Kellykelly.senate.gov
- 11'Assault on liberty': Trump blasted by Democratic Sen. Kelly over archms.now
8. How does Mark Kelly's recent rhetoric on national security and Iran compare to that of other potential 2028 Democratic contenders?
| Kelly's National Security Critique | Strategic, operational, emphasizing military readiness, troop welfare, accountability, economic costs [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Other Democrats' Iran War Opposition | Framed through war powers, rationale, or JCPOA [5][6][7] |
| Projected Themes for Kelly (Sept 21, 2026) | No strategic plan/endgame, troop and readiness risks, accountability, economic costs [4][8][9][2][10][1] |
Sources (11)
- 1Sen. Mark Kelly blasts Donald Trump, his administration over Iran strategythehill.com
- 2Mark Kelly questions basis for US war against Iranthehill.com
- 3Transcript: Sen. Mark Kelly on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," May 10, 2026 - CBS Newscbsnews.com
- 4Sen. Mark Kelly Declares Trump ‘Is Ruining This Country,’ Citing Food Costs, Gas Prices, and Iran Warpolitical.org
- 5Possible 2028 Democratic White House contenders weigh in on Iran with New Hampshire voters - CBS Newscbsnews.com
- 6Prospective 2028 Democrats rally against Trump’s Iran agreementjewishinsider.com
- 7What 2028 Dem Presidential Contenders Have Said About Trump’s Iran Warzeteo.com
- 8The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell podcast - Metacastmetacast.app
- 9'ASSAULT ON LIBERTY!': Trump blasted by Dem Senator Kelly over...yahoo.com
- 10Mark Kelly questions ‘not reasonable’ military funding requests for war with Iran: Full interviewnbcnews.com
- 11‘They Are Flailing’: Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly Torches Iran Strategy, Holds Out On $67B War Bill - AOLaol.com
9. Based on his 2026 broadcast history, what topics does Lawrence O'Donnell typically prioritize when interviewing Democratic senators critical of the administration?
| Interview Year | 2026 [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Markey Interview Date | September 18 [2][6] |
| Schumer Interview Month | June [3] |
Sources (8)
- 1Sen. Mark Kelly Declares Trump ‘Is Ruining This Country,’ Citing Food Costs, Gas Prices, and Iran Warpolitical.org
- 2‘TRUMP AT THE PUMP!’: Trump torched over skyrocketing gas prices by Dem Senator Markeyms.now
- 3TRANSCRIPT: Leader Schumer Joins Lawrenc... | The Senate Democratic Caucusdemocrats.senate.gov
- 4Lawrence: Trump’s ‘lust for vengeance’ could cost Republicans in the House and Senate — The Last Word with Lawrence O’Donnellpodparadise.com
- 5Lawrence: Trump worst person to be in White House when AI could do what nuclear weapons haven’tshare.snipd.com
- 6Lawrence: Trump never tells the truth, except about protecting billionairesshare.snipd.com
- 7‘Assault on liberty’: Trump blasted by Democratic Sen. Kelly...ms.now
- 8‘ASSAULT ON LIBERTY!’: Trump blasted by Dem Senator Kelly over arch – The Financial Newsthefinancial.news
10. What is Mark Kelly's public record and legislative focus regarding Artificial Intelligence and its economic impact leading up to his September 2026 appearance?
| AI for America release | September 2025 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Estimated job transitions by 2030 | 12 million [1][3] |
| AI DATA Act introduced | June 2026 [4] |
Sources (7)
- 1[PDF] AI FOR AMERICA - Senator Mark Kellykelly.senate.gov
- 2Kelly Releases AI for America, a Roadmap to Make AI Work for All Americans, Not Just Big Companies - Senator Mark Kellykelly.senate.gov
- 3AI FORkelly.senate.gov
- 4Kelly, Banks, Young Introduce Bipartisan Legislation to Track, Inform AI’s Impact on the American Workforce - Senator Mark Kellykelly.senate.gov
- 5Kelly, Warner, Hawley Lead Bipartisan Letter Pushing for Better...kelly.senate.gov
- 6Kelly, Rounds Introduce Bipartisan Bill to Enhance Consumer Literacy and Confidence in AI - Senator Mark Kellykelly.senate.gov
- 7Kelly, Colleagues Introduce Legislation to Raise Awareness, Boost Public Trust in Artificial Intelligence - Senator Mark Kellykelly.senate.gov
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: October 05, 2026
- Closes: October 05, 2026
Sources (18)
- 1Sen. Kelly Calls Articles of Impeachment Against Defense Secy. Hegseth "Ironic" | Video | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
- 2Sen. Mark Kelly Declares Trump ‘Is Ruining This Country,’ Citing Food Costs, Gas Prices, and Iran Warpolitical.org
- 3Mark Kelly: Donald Trump 'Is Ruining This Country' | Altoalto.gab.com
- 4ICYMI: Kelly Blasts Trump Admin for Caring More About Appearances Than Accountability as New Images Emerge of Iran War Damage - Senator Mark Kellykelly.senate.gov
- 5‘Assault on liberty’: Trump blasted by Democratic Sen. Kelly over archms.now
- 6‘ASSAULT ON LIBERTY!’: Trump blasted by Dem Senator Kelly over arch – The Financial Newsthefinancial.news
- 7Senator Mark Kelly Defends Press Freedom Amid Trump’s Media Crackdown: ‘The Government Doesn’t Get to Dec - Benzingabenzinga.com
- 8Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) Speaks With C-SPAN in Manchester, NH | Video | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
- 9Sen. Mark Kelly and Rep. Ro Khanna Campaign for New Hampshire Candidates | Video | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
- 10Sen. Mark Kelly & Former Bush Administration Officials Attend the Atlantic Festival | Video | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
- 11Kelly says he won't decide on a presidential run until after the 2026 electionkjzz.org
- 12Trump clash, fundraising boom elevate Mark Kelly 2028 prospectscronkitenews.azpbs.org
- 13Mark Kelly Campaigns in Red States, for This Election And Maybe the Next - The Washington Sunwashingtonsun.com
- 14Mark Kelly (D-AZ) 2026: Former Astronaut Defending a Trending-Red State | USPollingDatauspollingdata.com
- 15Who will win the next presidential election? | Paritypredictparity.com
- 16Will Mark Kelly be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | Paritypredictparity.com
- 17Who will win the next… — Mark Kelly — 3.1% on Kalshipredictionbubbles.net
- 18Will Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before 2027? | Paritypredictparity.com
13. Related News
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXLASTWORDMENTION-26SEP16-WHAT: YES (Sep 17, 2026)
- KXLASTWORDMENTION-26SEP16-TARI: YES (Sep 17, 2026)
- KXLASTWORDMENTION-26SEP16-REPU: YES (Sep 17, 2026)
- KXLASTWORDMENTION-26SEP16-NQE: NO (Sep 17, 2026)
- KXLASTWORDMENTION-26SEP16-MEDI: NO (Sep 17, 2026)