Short Answer

Miami is expected to win against Cleveland on November 13, priced by the market at 56.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The significant drop in Cleveland's implied win probability on November 10 was driven by the team's 124–112 loss to Charlotte. The 16.0 percentage point decline from 63.0% to 47.0% was reportedly amplified by social media criticism directed at Cavaliers player James Harden, who scored 11 points in the loss. This single event appears to be the primary factor in reversing the market's initial pricing, which had opened with Cleveland as the favorite at 69.0%.
The market's current price of 46.0% reflects this new sentiment and aligns with external sports betting data. Conventional bookmakers list Miami as a 1.5 to 2.5-point favorite for the November 13 NBA Cup game, which is consistent with the prediction market's sub-50% probability for a Cleveland win. The high trading volume on the final day, accounting for the vast majority of total contracts traded, suggests conviction has firmed around this revised valuation ahead of tip-off.
  • Miami's probability mass is highest, driven by Evan Mobley's confirmed absence for Cleveland.
  • Miami enters on a 5-2 run; recent lineup adjustments appear successful.
  • Cleveland's 6-2 head-to-head record tempers Miami's projected advantage.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Cleveland 46.0% 41.2% Cleveland has a strong recent head-to-head record, winning 6 of the last 8 meetings.
Miami 56.0% 58.8% Evan Mobley's confirmed absence for Cleveland is a significant advantage for Miami.

Current Context

Miami is a narrow home favorite over Cleveland entering Friday's NBA Cup game. The Cleveland Cavaliers visit the Miami Heat at Kaseya Center on Friday, November 13, 2026, for an 8:00 p.m. ET tip-off in NBA Cup group play [1][2]. Cleveland enters the game with a 6-6 record, while Miami stands at 5-6 [3][4]. Current market pricing shows Miami favored by approximately -1.5 to -2.5 on the spread, with a moneyline range of -125 to -139. The game total is set around 235.5-236.5 [3][5][6][7].
Significant player absences and injury statuses factor into model forecast variations. Cleveland lists Evan Mobley out with a left great-toe sprain; Sam Merrill and Nae'Qwan Tomlin are also unavailable [4][8][2]. For Miami, Giannis Antetokounmpo is probable with a right-wrist sprain, while Klay Thompson (left-ankle soreness) and Pelle Larsson (illness) are questionable [4][8][2]. Model dispersion is meaningful, with Oddsloft giving Miami a 56% chance, FanDuel/numberFire 50.4%, and HoopMetrics 64%, indicating injury-sensitive projections [3][4][7]. HoopMetrics projects Miami 117.7, Cleveland 113.2, and favors the under 236.5. SportsGambler, conversely, recommends Cleveland +2.5 and predicts a 122-119 Cleveland victory [7][9].
Miami’s recent offensive adjustments contrast with Cleveland’s head-to-head edge. Miami has posted a 5-2 record after an 0-4 start to the season, attributed to Erik Spoelstra’s starting lineup changes and increased use of pick-and-roll. Concerns about rotation and bench consistency persist [10]. Cleveland won its latest game 115-107 at the Knicks, and Miami defeated Utah 115-109 [3][4]. Historically, Cleveland holds a 6-2 advantage across the last eight meetings against Miami, including a 149-128 Cavaliers win on March 27, 2026 [6].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Cavaliers vs. Heat (Nov 13, 2026) Live Score - ESPNespn.com
  2. 2Heat vs Cavaliers Preview: Klay Thompson Status, Lineupsremixsportsmedia.com
  3. 3Heat vs. Cavaliers Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Nov. 13 | FanDuel Researchfanduel.com
  4. 4Cavaliers vs Heat: Nov 13, 2026 preview, odds | Oddsloftoddsloft.com
  5. 5Cavaliers vs. Heat Odds & Prediction, Nov 13 | Kalshikalshi.com
  6. 6Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat Preview, Odds & Statsmargus.app
  7. 7Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat Prediction, Odds & Player Props – Nov 13, 2026 | HoopMetricshoopmetrics.app
  8. 8Caleb Wilson has surgery on his fractured right hand and will be re-evaluated in three weeks, and Evan Mobley is out Friday with a toe sprainwhynba.com
  9. 9Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat Prediction, Picks & Odds | NBA Fridaysportsgambler.com
  10. 10Heat Notes: Thompson, Mitchell, Rotation, Crunch Time, Bench | Hoops Rumorshoopsrumors.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Cleveland

📉 November 10, 2026: 16.0pp drop

Price decreased from 63.0% to 47.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price drop for "Cleveland" was likely Cleveland's poor performance on November 10, 2026, against Charlotte, significantly amplified by social media criticism directed at Cavaliers player James Harden. Cleveland lost 124–112, with Harden scoring only 11 points and receiving widespread online criticism for a "pathetic" defensive sequence, described with terms like "'Completely Washed'" [1][2][3]. This online activity appears to have coincided with the market movement, suggesting that news of Cleveland's poor play and the specific social media backlash against a key player collectively led to a downward re-evaluation of Cleveland's prospects for their upcoming game against Miami [3]. Social media was a primary driver, accelerating the impact of Cleveland's poor on-court performance.

Outcome: Miami

📈 November 09, 2026: 41.0pp spike

Price increased from 18.0% to 59.0%

What happened: The primary driver for the 41.0 percentage point price spike for "Miami" was the decisive 89–51 victory of the Miami (FL) men's college basketball team against North Florida on November 9, 2026 [4][5]. While the market name "Cleveland vs Miami" suggests an NBA matchup, the Cleveland Cavaliers did not play the Miami Heat on that date [6], making the college win the most direct positive event for "Miami" on the specified date. Although a high-engagement social media post by the Miami Heat was reported, its timing is not explicitly tied to the price move, and it pertains to the NBA team, not the college team whose victory aligns with the market spike [7]. Social media was mostly noise or irrelevant to this specific price movement.
Sources (7)
  1. 1Grayson Allen scores 27, Naz Reid adds 25 as Hornets beat Cavaliers 124-112 to snap 6-game skidapnews.com
  2. 2Cavs Get Late Lift From An Unlikely Source In Fourth Quarter Loss Against Hornetssi.com
  3. 3‘Completely Washed,’ ‘Get Him Off My Team’ — James Harden Gets Shredded Over ‘Pathetic’ Defensive Sequence vs. Shorthanded Hornets - Yahoo Sportssports.yahoo.com
  4. 4No. 17 Miami Dominates the Paint in 89-51 Win Over North Florida - Miami Hurricanesmiamihurricanes.com
  5. 5Miami (FL) vs North Florida - Men's Basketball - 11/9/2026 - Box Score - Atlantic Coast Conferencetheacc.com
  6. 6Schedule | Cleveland Cavaliersnba.com
  7. 7NBA social media leaderboard: 30 clubs ranked this week | Format Relayformatrelay.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi prediction market resolves 'Yes' if the Miami Heat win their NBA game against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Conversely, it resolves 'No' if the Miami Heat do not win, meaning the Cleveland Cavaliers are victorious. Trading for this market begins on November 13, 8:00 PM EST, with the final resolution occurring after the game concludes according to official results; no special settlement conditions are specified.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Miami $0.56 $0.46 56%
Cleveland $0.46 $0.55 46%

Market Discussion

Prediction markets generally favor Miami to win the November 13 Cleveland–Miami professional men’s basketball game, with Polymarket and Kalshi pricing Miami around 56% [1]. This sentiment is often attributed to Miami's clean injury report, home-court advantage, and Cleveland absences, including Evan Mobley [1]. However, some sources present a mixed outlook, with Covers reporting 57% of consensus picks on Cleveland and Kalshi's spread market implying the expectation of a close game [2].

Sources (2)
  1. 1Cavaliers vs Heat Prediction Nov 13 | Lines.comlines.com
  2. 2CLE Cavaliers vs MIA Heat: Spread NBA Odds & Predictionskalshi.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 82 Good

Largest single print on KXNBAGAME-26NOV13CLEMIA-CLE carried 35% of its $4,109 tape (window is 12% of 24h flow)

Integrity risk· Large trades

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score83Good
Trade quality20% of score79Good

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 1% of the price to slippage.

Trust score82Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
80Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on KXNBAGAME-26NOV13CLEMIA-CLE carried 35% of its $4,109 tape (window is 12% of 24h flow)

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
84Deep

Size fills near the screen price

2 contracts · worst first

Cleveland81
Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 4.0% of price over 19 traded bars

Miami87
Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 1.9% of price over 19 traded bars

24h traded notional $28,973 · 24h
Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

2 contracts · worst first

Miami—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Cleveland—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first

Miami95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Cleveland95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
79Good

Order book supports trading

Deep and tight enough to trade efficiently.

Outcome quality 84 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (~1% of a 45.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.5c slippage (~1% of a 45.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 0.5c slippage (~1% of a 45.5c contract)

Miami87Market scoreLiquidity87Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 87
Liquidity
87 · Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 1.9% of price over 19 traded bars

24h traded notional $28,973 · 24h
Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
ClevelandPrimary81Market scoreLiquidity81Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 81
Liquidity
81 · Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 4.0% of price over 19 traded bars

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 13, 2026

6. How Will Evan Mobley's Confirmed Absence for Cleveland Affect the Final Point Spread Against Miami?

Miami Spread-2.5 point favorite [1][2]
Miami Win Probabilityapproximately 61% [3]
Public Betting Cleveland57% of picks [3][2]
Evan Mobley's absence significantly impacts the Cavaliers-Heat point spread. Analyst Jon Metler identifies Evan Mobley's confirmed absence for the Cleveland Cavaliers' game against Miami on November 13, 2026, as a primary factor in Miami's projected advantage, particularly given Miami's frontcourt featuring Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo [2][4][3]. Sportsbooks reflect this assessment by listing Miami as a -2.5 point favorite against Cleveland (+2.5) [1][2]. Metler estimates Miami's win probability at approximately 61% [3]. Prediction markets further support this, with Kalshi's spread market indicating a modal final margin of about 2-3 points in Miami's favor. Kalshi prices Miami victories by over 2.5 points at 50%, while Gemini estimates this probability at 49.5% [5][6].
Public betting remains split despite Miami being a narrow favorite. Despite Miami being favored, public betting data shows a divided sentiment, with 57% of picks (56 total picks) supporting Cleveland and 43% (42 total picks) on Miami [3][2]. Handicapper Peter Tran supports Cleveland +2.5, asserting that the Cavaliers possess sufficient depth to mitigate Mobley's absence [3][2]. Additionally, potential absences for Miami, specifically Klay Thompson and Pelle Larsson, who are listed as questionable, are noted to cap the expected point margin for Miami [3].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Cavaliers vs Heat Odds & Betting Lines For November 13, 2026 - NBAcovers.com
  2. 2Cavaliers vs Heat Prediction 11/13/2026 NBA Picks Today - Pick Dawgzpickdawgz.com
  3. 3Cavaliers vs Heat Picks, Prop Bets For November 13, 2026 - NBA Predictionscovers.com
  4. 4NBA Prediction Markets: Winner Prices, Lineups & Injuriesnba-lineups.com
  5. 5Cleveland vs Miami: Spread - Compare Kalshi vs Gemini Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  6. 6Cleveland vs Miami: Point Spread - Compare Gemini vs Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

7. What On-Court Evidence Justifies Miami's Status as the Betting Favorite Over Cleveland on November 13?

Miami Recent Performance5-2 run over previous seven games [1]
Giannis Antetokounmpo Averages27.7 points and 12.6 rebounds (through 11 games) [2]
Cleveland Season Record vs Miami6-6 vs 5-6 [3][2][4]
Miami's betting favorite status stems from recent form and key player advantages. Miami is positioned as the betting favorite against Cleveland on November 13, supported by several on-court factors despite projections indicating only a narrow expected edge [3][1]. Miami's recent performance includes a 5-2 run over its last seven games and a current two-game winning streak, contrasting with Cleveland's recent two-game skid [1]. A significant factor bolstering Miami's odds is the absence of Evan Mobley for Cleveland, particularly given Miami's strong frontcourt featuring Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo [5]. Antetokounmpo has been a strong statistical anchor for Miami, averaging 27.7 points and 12.6 rebounds through 11 games, outperforming Cleveland's Donovan Mitchell [2]. Furthermore, Miami benefits from the added advantage of playing on their home court [3][2][4].
Miami's favored position is contested by Cleveland's record and recent performance. Despite these advantages, Miami's designation as the favorite is qualified rather than dominant [3][1]. Cleveland holds a slightly better overall season record at 6-6 compared to Miami's 5-6, and recently defeated Miami in a high-scoring game [3][2][4]. One handicapper even expressed a preference for Cleveland, citing Miami's narrow win against Utah, poor shooting during that game, and potential absences of key players such as Klay Thompson and Pelle Larsson, thereby suggesting Miami's favorite status is contestable [1].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Cavaliers vs Heat Prediction 11/13/2026 NBA Picks Today - Pick Dawgzpickdawgz.com
  2. 2Cavaliers vs Heat Game Overview, Stats, Injuries, Records - NBA Game on November 13, 2026covers.com
  3. 3Cavaliers vs Heat Odds & Betting Lines For November 13, 2026 - NBAcovers.com
  4. 4Cleveland Vs Miami Game Log | StatMusestatmuse.com
  5. 5Cavaliers vs Heat Picks, Prop Bets For November 13, 2026 - NBA Predictionscovers.com

8. How Do Erik Spoelstra's Recent Coaching Adjustments for Miami Contrast with Cleveland's Strategy Amidst Injuries?

Pelle Larsson 3PT%46.9% [1]
Giannis Points Per Game27.7 [1]
Miami Market Oddsaround 56¢ [2][3]
Erik Spoelstra's recent lineup changes have significantly boosted Miami's performance. The inclusion of Pelle Larsson in the starting lineup has led to two consecutive wins and improved offensive spacing [1]. Larsson offers defensive contributions and ranked ninth in offensive fouls drawn last season, while his shooting creates space for key players Giannis Antetokounmpo, who leads the team with 27.7 points and 12.6 rebounds per game, and Bam Adebayo, averaging 17.8 points [1]. Since this adjustment, Larsson has averaged 11.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.3 steals, and has shot 46.9% from three-point range [1]. Recent reports indicated Giannis Antetokounmpo as probable and Pelle Larsson as questionable for Miami [2][3].
Cleveland's strategy amid injuries centers on James Harden's offensive output. With key players like Evan Mobley, Sam Merrill, and Na’Qwan Tomlin sidelined, the team appears to be relying on Harden to lead their offense [1][4][5][3]. Mobley's absence is particularly impactful when facing Miami's formidable Antetokounmpo-Adebayo frontcourt pairing [1]. Harden recently delivered a season-high performance of 32 points on 9-of-14 shooting, including 5-of-7 from beyond the arc, marking a substantial improvement from his previous average of 15.3 points on 36.4% shooting [1].
The market perspective indicates Miami holds an advantage due to identifiable coaching adjustments. Miami also possesses a frontcourt matchup advantage [1][4][5][2][3]. However, analysts suggest the game might be closer than initially perceived, attributing this to Cleveland's increased reliance on Harden's scoring and Miami's potentially questionable spacing [1][4][5][2][3]. This outlook favors a modest lean towards Miami over an aggressive position. Market data shows Miami priced around 56¢ versus Cleveland around 46¢, with Miami approximately a 2.5-point home favorite [2][3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Cavaliers vs Heat Game Overview, Stats, Injuries, Records - NBA Game on November 13, 2026covers.com
  2. 2Cavaliers vs Heat Odds & Betting Lines For November 13, 2026 - NBAcovers.com
  3. 3NBA Prediction Markets: Winner Prices, Lineups & Injuriesnba-lineups.com
  4. 4Cavaliers vs Heat Prediction 11/13/2026 NBA Picks Today - Pick Dawgzpickdawgz.com
  5. 5Cavaliers vs Heat Picks, Prop Bets For November 13, 2026 - NBA Predictionscovers.com

9. What Do Advanced Models from numberFire and HoopMetrics Indicate for the Over/Under Point Total?

Conventional Betting Total236.5 points [1][2]
Kalshi Probability (Over 234.5)54% [3]
236.5 Total InterpretationEssentially efficient to slightly Under-leaning [3][1][2]
Proprietary model outputs for the Cleveland-Miami game were not available. Specific point-total projections from numberFire or HoopMetrics for the Cleveland vs. Miami game on November 13, 2026, were not found [4]. The available information from numberFire consisted of a generic NBA fantasy-projection widget, rather than a dedicated game-total model [4]. For context, the conventional betting total for this game was established at 236.5 points, with Cleveland at +2.5 and Miami at -2.5 [1][2].
Market probabilities suggest the game total leans slightly towards the Under. Kalshi's analysis provided probabilities of 54% for Over 234.5 points, 47% for Over 236.5 points, and 46% for Over 238.5 points [3]. This indicates the market's central estimate for the game's total points is in the mid-to-high 230s, and support for an 'Over' wager substantially diminishes above approximately 235-236 points [3]. Consequently, without proprietary model outputs, the most reliable actionable interpretation is to consider the 236.5-point total as essentially efficient, potentially leaning slightly towards the Under [3][1][2]. Stronger support for an 'Over' bet is observed only at a materially lower threshold, such as 234.5 points [3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Cavaliers vs Heat Odds & Betting Lines For November 13, 2026 - NBAcovers.com
  2. 2Cavaliers vs Heat Prediction 11/13/2026 NBA Picks Today - Pick Dawgzpickdawgz.com
  3. 3CLE Cavaliers vs MIA Heat: Total Points NBA Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  4. 4Fantasy Projections and Sports Analytics - numberFirenumberfire.com

10. Considering Cleveland's 6-2 Recent Head-to-Head Record, What's the Bull Case for Miami Overcoming This Trend?

Impact of Mobley's AbsenceImproves Miami's frontcourt matchup and overall strength [1]
Recent Head-to-Head RecordCleveland favors 8-2 over the last 10 meetings [2]
Miami Win Probability (Handicapper)Approximately 61% based on Mobley's absence [1]
Evan Mobley's absence significantly enhances Miami's frontcourt matchup and win probability. This key player's absence from Cleveland's lineup provides Miami with its clearest matchup advantage, notably weakening Cleveland's frontcourt defense and rebounding capabilities [1]. One handicapper estimated Miami's win probability at approximately 61%, largely attributed to this factor [1]. While Cleveland has held an 8-2 head-to-head advantage over their last ten meetings, including recent victories in March 2026, Miami did secure wins in two prior November 2025 matchups [2].
Miami holds positive momentum and a strong home-court advantage entering the game. The team had won five of its previous seven games and two straight, commencing a five-game homestand [3][2]. This recent improvement followed a rotation adjustment that moved Andrew Wiggins out of the starting lineup for Pelle Larsson, contributing to the two consecutive wins [2]. Cleveland, conversely, had a 2-4 road record, contrasting sharply with Miami's strong home performance, which includes an 8-1 record against the spread in its last nine home games against teams with a road winning percentage below.400 [1][2]. The market has positioned Miami as a modest favorite, indicating that current circumstances such as Mobley's absence, Miami's home advantage, and better recent form are outweighing Cleveland's historical head-to-head record [4][1][3][5][2].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Cavaliers vs Heat Picks, Prop Bets For November 13, 2026 - NBA Predictionscovers.com
  2. 2Cavaliers vs Heat Game Overview, Stats, Injuries, Records - NBA Game on November 13, 2026covers.com
  3. 3Cavaliers vs Heat Prediction 11/13/2026 NBA Picks Today - Pick Dawgzpickdawgz.com
  4. 4Cleveland vs Miami: Kalshi odds | PredictionsMarket.compredictionsmarket.com
  5. 5Cavaliers vs Heat Odds & Betting Lines For November 13, 2026 - NBAcovers.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Kalshi pricing on November 13 implied approximately 56% for Miami and 44–46% for Cleveland; the Miami contract was up about 1–4 cents, with roughly 67,000 contracts traded in 24 hours [1][2]. Sportsbook models presented divergence: Oddsloft estimated Miami at 56% and projected Heat -3.0, while Pickswise gave Cleveland 58.2% [3][4]. This disagreement represents a catalyst for volatility, not a clean directional signal [3][4]. Miami stands as the market favorite, but its edge is small and sensitive to headline news [1][5][3][6][7].
Miami’s bullish case includes a two-game winning streak, three wins in its last four, and home court advantage at Kaseya Center for the NBA Cup East Group B game on November 13, 2026 [5][8][6][9][7][10]. Giannis leads the team with 27.7 points and 12.6 rebounds per game, and Cleveland allows 114.3 points per game compared to Miami’s 120.0 [5][8][6]. However, Miami entered 5-6 overall and 1-3 at home, showing a -4.1 net rating and 114.1 defensive rating in one model [5][3][6][7]. Giannis, Klay Thompson, and Pelle Larsson are listed day-to-day or questionable [5][3][6][7]. Whether Giannis plays effectively and Klay is active is the highest-impact event [1][5][3][6][7].
Cleveland’s bullish factors include a 6-6 record, 116.4 points per game, 45.7 rebounds, 37% three-point shooting, and a recent 115-107 road win over New York [5][3][7]. The team also had stronger overall net-rating inputs than Miami in one model [5][3][7]. Evan Mobley is listed out with a toe injury, Sam Merrill is out, and additional frontcourt absences are reported [5][3][6][7][11]. Mobley’s absence increases the burden on Jarrett Allen against Miami’s Giannis Antetokounmpo/Bam Adebayo size [5][3][6][7][11]. Confirmation that Mitchell/Harden/Allen can reproduce the New York performance without Mobley is Cleveland’s clearest positive catalyst [1][5][3][6][7]. Final injury and availability news serves as the key pregame catalyst for the 8:00 p.m. ET game [6][9][7][10].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 16, 2026
  • Closes: November 16, 2026
Sources (11)
  1. 1Cavaliers vs. Heat Odds & Prediction, Nov 13 | Kalshikalshi.com
  2. 2Cleveland vs Miami: Kalshi odds | PredictionsMarket.compredictionsmarket.com
  3. 3Cavaliers vs Heat: Nov 13, 2026 preview, odds | Oddsloftoddsloft.com
  4. 4Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat - Prediction, Odds & Picks | Pickswisepickswise.com
  5. 5Cavaliers vs. Heat (Nov 13, 2026) Live Score - ESPNespn.com
  6. 6Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Injury Report: Latest on Giannis Antetokounmporoundtable.io
  7. 7Cavs at Heat: How to watch, injury report and another test of consistency - Hoops Wirehoopswire.com
  8. 8cavaliers vs heat odds, spread & prediction (nov 13, 2026) | viggedvigged.com
  9. 9Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat Nov 13, 2026 Game Detailsnba.com
  10. 10Schedule - Miami HEATnba.com
  11. 11Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat Preview & Start Time — November 13, 2026 | SIsi.com

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXNBAGAME-26NOV12TORPHI-TOR: NO (Nov 13, 2026)
  • KXNBAGAME-26NOV12TORPHI-PHI: YES (Nov 13, 2026)
  • KXNBAGAME-26NOV11OKCPOR-POR: YES (Nov 12, 2026)
  • KXNBAGAME-26NOV11OKCPOR-OKC: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
  • KXNBAGAME-26NOV11ORLUTA-UTA: NO (Nov 12, 2026)