Illinois vs UCLA: Spread
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- UCLA appears favored; its defense challenges Illinois' passing attack. Public betting heavily favors UCLA -10, per WagerTalk. * Illinois performs well Against The Spread as a road underdog since 2021.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA wins by over 10.5 points | 48.0% | 20.0% | UCLA is expected to cover the point spread against Illinois. |
| UCLA wins by over 9.5 points | 53.0% | 20.0% | UCLA is expected to cover the point spread against Illinois. |
| UCLA wins by over 13.5 points | 42.0% | 20.0% | UCLA is expected to cover the point spread against Illinois. |
| UCLA wins by over 6.5 points | 61.0% | 20.0% | UCLA is expected to cover the point spread against Illinois. |
| UCLA wins by over 14.5 points | 36.0% | 20.0% | UCLA is expected to cover the point spread against Illinois. |
Current Context
Sources (10)
- 1Illinois vs UCLA Prediction: Odds, Spread, Best Betbettorsinsider.com
- 2UCLA vs Illinois Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Week 11 2026 | FanDuel Researchfanduel.com
- 3Illinois Fighting Illini vs UCLA Bruins Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets - NCAAF, Week 11sports.betmgm.com
- 4Illinois at No. 4 UCLA a mismatch? In college football this nutty season, there might not be any such thing - Chicago Sun-Timeschicago.suntimes.com
- 5Illinois-UCLA Picks, Predictions & Odds: College Football Week 11lineups.com
- 6College Football Picks for Friday: 3 Predictions and Best Bets (Nov. 13) | FanDuel Researchfanduel.com
- 7Illinois vs. UCLA Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 11si.com
- 8November 13, 2026: Illinois vs UCLA Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 9Illinois vs. No. 5 UCLA Odds & Prediction, Nov 13 | Kalshikalshi.com
- 10Illinois vs UCLA Odds, Nov 13 - VantagePredictionsvantagepredictions.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: UCLA wins by over 2.5 points
📈 November 09, 2026: 16.0pp spike
Price increased from 62.0% to 78.0%
Outcome: UCLA wins by over 6.5 points
📈 November 08, 2026: 23.0pp spike
Price increased from 48.0% to 71.0%
Sources (11)
- 1College Football Line Movement: CFB Odds & Prop Movers - CLEATZcleatz.com
- 2Sammy’s Sportsbook Whispers: UCLA Is Enjoying 'The Big Ten Schedule Lottery' | FOX Sportsfoxsports.com
- 3Illinois vs UCLA Prediction: Odds, Spread, Best Betbettorsinsider.com
- 4Illinois vs UCLA Predictions, Picks & Odds | November 13, 2026wagertalk.com
- 5Illinois at UCLA: pick, odds history and result | VantoraBetsvantorabets.com
- 6Illinois opens as double-digit underdog against undefeated UCLA | The Champaign Roomthechampaignroom.com
- 7Illinois vs. UCLA: Line Movement, Odds & Injuries, Week 11 2026 · The Sharp Editionthesharpedition.com
- 8UCLA wins by over 6.5 points… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 9Illinois at UCLA odds, picks and predictionssportsbookwire.usatoday.com
- 10UCLA Bruins News - College Football | FOX Sportsfoxsports.com
- 11Illinois looks to upset No. 4 UCLA for first top-5 win since 2007 | Sports | foxillinois.comfoxillinois.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For the "UCLA wins by over 9.5 points" market, a YES resolution occurs if UCLA defeats Illinois by a margin of 10 points or more. A NO resolution occurs if UCLA wins by 9.5 points or fewer, or if Illinois wins, or if the game results in a tie. The game is scheduled to begin on November 13, 9:00 pm EST, and the maximum payout date is listed as November 15, 2026, with no other special settlement conditions specified on this page.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA wins by over 1.5 points | $0.77 | $0.25 | 77% |
| UCLA wins by over 2.5 points | $0.75 | $0.26 | 75% |
| UCLA wins by over 3.5 points | $0.69 | $0.32 | 69% |
| UCLA wins by over 4.5 points | $0.66 | $0.35 | 67% |
| UCLA wins by over 5.5 points | $0.64 | $0.37 | 65% |
| UCLA wins by over 6.5 points | $0.61 | $0.40 | 61% |
| UCLA wins by over 7.5 points | $0.56 | $0.45 | 56% |
| UCLA wins by over 9.5 points | $0.53 | $0.48 | 53% |
| UCLA wins by over 10.5 points | $0.48 | $0.53 | 48% |
| UCLA wins by over 11.5 points | $0.45 | $0.56 | 45% |
| UCLA wins by over 13.5 points | $0.42 | $0.59 | 42% |
| UCLA wins by over 14.5 points | $0.36 | $0.65 | 36% |
| UCLA wins by over 16.5 points | $0.34 | $0.67 | 33% |
| UCLA wins by over 17.5 points | $0.30 | $0.71 | 29% |
| UCLA wins by over 20.5 points | $0.26 | $0.75 | 26% |
| Illinois wins by over 1.5 points | $0.21 | $0.80 | 20% |
| UCLA wins by over 23.5 points | $0.20 | $0.82 | 20% |
| Illinois wins by over 2.5 points | $0.21 | $0.81 | 18% |
| Illinois wins by over 3.5 points | $0.16 | $0.85 | 15% |
| UCLA wins by over 27.5 points | $0.14 | $0.87 | 13% |
| Illinois wins by over 7.5 points | $0.10 | $0.91 | 10% |
| Illinois wins by over 10.5 points | $0.06 | $0.95 | 5% |
| Illinois wins by over 11.5 points | $0.06 | $0.96 | 0% |
| Illinois wins by over 13.5 points | $0.05 | $0.97 | 0% |
| Illinois wins by over 14.5 points | $0.04 | $0.98 | 0% |
| Illinois wins by over 4.5 points | $0.15 | $0.88 | 0% |
| Illinois wins by over 5.5 points | $0.14 | $0.88 | 0% |
| Illinois wins by over 6.5 points | $0.13 | $0.89 | 0% |
| Illinois wins by over 9.5 points | $0.09 | $0.94 | 0% |
| UCLA wins by over 21.5 points | $0.22 | $0.79 | 0% |
| UCLA wins by over 24.5 points | $0.18 | $0.85 | 0% |
Market Discussion
The consensus view supports UCLA winning outright, with one platform pricing them at 77% for an outright victory, but conviction for them to cover a -10.5 spread is lower, at 47% [1][2]. Market sentiment for UCLA covering appears mixed, as the conventional line moved from UCLA -12.5 toward -10, suggesting sharp interest in Illinois, with one projection favoring Illinois +10.5 to avoid a blowout [3][4][5][6].
Sources (6)
- 1Illinois vs UCLA: Spread NCAA Football Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 2Illinois vs. No. 4 UCLA Odds & Prediction, Nov 13 | Kalshikalshi.com
- 3Spread: UCLA (-10.5) · Market Guymarket-guy.com
- 4Illinois vs UCLA Prediction: Odds, Spread, Best Betbettorsinsider.com
- 5Find out the Illinois vs. UCLA football betting odds, point spreadthetelegraph.com
- 6Illinois Fighting Illini vs UCLA Bruins Odds | NCAAF | Linewhalelinewhale.com
5. Trust Index
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 2% of the price to slippage.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. How does Illinois' high-scoring passing offense match up against UCLA's nation-leading defense in takeaways?
| UCLA Interceptions | 17 in 9 games (1.89 per game) [1] |
|---|---|
| UCLA Opponent Completion Rate | 49% (134/271) [1] |
| Illinois Key Absences | Starting QB Katin Houser, RB Ca'Lil Valentine, and WR Alex Perry [2] |
7. What do advanced analytical models like SP+ and numberFire project for the final score and margin of victory in the Illinois vs. UCLA game?
| WagerTalk Projected Score | UCLA 24, Illinois 17 (November 11, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| BetMGM UCLA Win Probability | 77.5% [2] |
| ESPN Opening Line | UCLA -8.5 [3] |
Sources (8)
- 1Illinois vs UCLA Predictions, Picks & Odds | November 13, 2026wagertalk.com
- 2Illinois Fighting Illini vs UCLA Bruins Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets - NCAAF, Week 11sports.betmgm.com
- 3Illinois vs. UCLA Odds: Spread, Over/Under & Moneyline | Week 11cfbparlaycalculator.com
- 42026 college football SP+ rankings for all 138 FBS teams - ESPNespn.com
- 5Illinois vs. UCLA (Nov 13, 2026) Pregame - ESPNespn.com
- 6Illinois vs UCLA: Spread NCAA Football Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 7Illinois vs UCLA: Spread NCAA Football Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 8Illinois vs UCLA: Spread — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
8. How might the forecasted rain at the Rose Bowl on November 13 impact the offensive strategies and turnover potential for both Illinois and UCLA?
| Game Date and Venue | Friday, Nov. 13, 2026, at the Rose Bowl [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Impact of Rain on Strategy | Reduced deep passing, increased rushing and quick-game throws [4][3] |
| Key Weather Variable | Which offense handles the wet ball better [1][4][3] |
Sources (4)
- 1Illinois Fighting Illini vs UCLA Bruins Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets - NCAAF, Week 11sports.betmgm.com
- 2Illinois vs. UCLA Odds: Spread, Over/Under & Moneyline | Week 11cfbparlaycalculator.com
- 3Illinois vs UCLA Predictions, Picks & Odds | November 13, 2026wagertalk.com
- 4Illinois vs UCLA Prediction November 13 | Lines.comlines.com
9. What does historical betting data show about Illinois' strong ATS performance as a road underdog in November?
| Illinois Away Underdog ATS (since 2021) | 13-6-0 (68.4% cover rate) [1] |
|---|---|
| Illinois Away Underdog ATS (2024) | 3-1-0 (75.0%) [2] |
| Public Betting on UCLA | 88% of spread money, 71% of tickets [3] |
Sources (5)
- 1College Football ATS Records As An Away Underdog (Since 2021) | BetIQbetiq.teamrankings.com
- 2College Football ATS Records As An Away Underdog (2024) | BetIQbetiq.teamrankings.com
- 3Illinois vs UCLA Predictions, Picks & Odds | November 13, 2026wagertalk.com
- 4Illinois vs UCLA: Spread — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 5Illinois vs UCLA: Spread NCAA Football Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
10. How has the performance of UCLA's backup quarterback, Ty Dieffenbach, compared to injured starter Nico Iamaleava against similarly ranked defenses?
| UCLA Record with Dieffenbach | 9-0 heading into Nov 13, 2026 game [1] |
|---|---|
| 4th Quarter Skill Player YPR | 21.7 yards per reception (2nd-best in FBS) [2] |
| 4th Quarter WR YPR | 29.3 yards per reception (best in Power Conference) [2] |
Sources (4)
- 1Illinois vs UCLA Prediction November 13 | Lines.comlines.com
- 2Illinois Fighting Illini vs UCLA Bruins Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets - NCAAF, Week 11sports.betmgm.com
- 3Illinois vs UCLA Predictions, Picks & Odds | November 13, 2026wagertalk.com
- 4Illinois vs UCLA Predictions, Picks & Odds | November 13, 2026legacy.winnersandwhiners.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 16, 2026
- Closes: November 16, 2026
Sources (13)
- 1College Football Betting: CFB Odds, Lines & Trends - CLEATZcleatz.com
- 2Illinois vs UCLA Predictions, Picks & Odds | November 13, 2026wagertalk.com
- 3UCLA vs Illinois Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Week 11 2026 | FanDuel Researchfanduel.com
- 4Illinois vs UCLA: Spread NCAA Football Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 5Spread: UCLA (-10.5) Polymarket Odds: Illinois 53% · UCLA 48%polynyx.com
- 6College Football Picks for Friday: 3 Predictions and Best Bets (Nov. 13) | FanDuel Researchfanduel.com
- 7Illinois, #4 UCLA Set for Friday Night Matchup at the Rose Bowl - University of Illinois Athleticsfightingillini.com
- 8No. 4 UCLA Hosts Illinois at Rose Bowl Friday Night - UCLA Bruinsuclabruins.com
- 9Illinois at No. 4 UCLA a mismatch? In college football this nutty season, there might not be any such thing - Chicago Sun-Timeschicago.suntimes.com
- 10Illinois-UCLA Picks, Predictions & Odds: College Football Week 11lineups.com
- 11Illinois’ 4-game surge meets No. 4 UCLA’s unbeaten run in a Rose Bowl showdownapnews.com
- 12Undefeated UCLA eyes 10-0 start in Big Ten clash with Illinois - CBS Sportscbssports.com
- 13Illinois football vs. UCLA: How to watch, odds, injuries, weather, announcers, & morewritingillini.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXNCAAFSPREAD-26NOV12MEMUSF-MEM37: NO (Nov 13, 2026)
- KXNCAAFSPREAD-26NOV12MEMUSF-MEM34: NO (Nov 13, 2026)
- KXNCAAFSPREAD-26NOV12MEMUSF-MEM31: NO (Nov 13, 2026)
- KXNCAAFSPREAD-26NOV11MASSTOL-TOL43: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXNCAAFSPREAD-26NOV11MASSTOL-TOL40: NO (Nov 12, 2026)