Jacksonville vs Tennessee: Receptions
Short Answer
Josh Cameron is likely to record at least one reception, as Jaguars' pass-catchers are projected for high reception totals against a struggling Titans pass defense; the market prices this outcome at 67.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market's primary move was a 10.0 percentage point spike on November 13, from 62.0% to 72.0%. The driver was a significant re-evaluation of the Jacksonville Jaguars' expected offensive output against the Tennessee Titans. This reassessment corresponded with a reported 24.3-point shift in the game's betting spread in Jacksonville's favor, suggesting a higher likelihood of overall offensive opportunities for its players.
The price jump solidified an existing trend. Jacksonville was already a strong -10.5 road favorite against a 1-7 Titans team for the November 15 game. The sharp move in the underlying game odds appears to have been the key catalyst that pushed this individual player market to its final pricing level. The probability held steady at 72.0% after the adjustment.
- Josh Cameron 1+ appears likely given Jaguars' strong pass-catcher projections.
- Jakobi Meyers 4+ is supported by Action Network's over 3.5 receptions pick.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas Jr.: 1+ | 67.0% | 67.0% | Jaguars pass-catchers are projected for high reception totals against a struggling Titans defense. |
| Parker Washington: 5+ | 45.0% | 0.0% | Jaguars pass-catchers are projected for high reception totals against a struggling Titans defense. |
| Chimere Dike: 4+ | 30.0% | 0.0% | Specific evidence supporting this reception total for the player is not present. |
| Josh Cameron: 1+ | 67.0% | 72.9% | Jaguars pass-catchers are projected for high reception totals against a struggling Titans defense. |
| Jakobi Meyers: 4+ | 51.0% | 0.0% | Action Network's pick for Meyers Over 3.5 Receptions directly supports him reaching four or more catches. |
Current Context
Jacksonville is a strong favorite in Sunday's game against Tennessee. The Jaguars (6-2) face the 1-7 Titans at Nissan Stadium on November 15, 2026, at 1:00 PM ET. Jacksonville is a -10.5 road favorite (moneyline -565/+425, ~84% implied) with a 46.5 total [1][2][3]. Tennessean experts uniformly favor Jacksonville, while the NBC Sports model recommends Titans +10.5 and Under 46.5 [1][2][4]. The Jaguars rank 3rd in defensive DVOA, allowing 15.1 PPG, contrasting with the Titans' 28th rank in points (18.0 PPG) and 29th in run defense DVOA [1]. Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence has 1,932 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions this season, compared to Tennessee QB Cam Ward's 1,483 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions [1]. Recent trade deadline activity saw Tennessee trade safety Amani Hooker, while Jacksonville added DT Jordan Davis, S Jessie Bates, and DT Davon Godchaux [4]. The forecast for game day is sunny, 52°F with 5 mph winds [1].
Injuries to key receivers affect reception market projections for Week 10. Titans rookie WR Carnell Tate (34 receptions, 413 yards, 1 TD in 7 games) is out with a shoulder injury since October 28 [5]. Jaguars WR Jakobi Meyers (26 receptions, 374 yards, 2 TD in 9 games) is listed as questionable due to hamstring and ankle issues after missing practice, potentially increasing volume for Parker Washington (29 receptions, 493 yards, 5 TD in 8 games) [1][5]. Kalshi's receptions market prices Jakobi Meyers at 66-69% for 3+ receptions, 49-50% for 4+, and 30-31% for 5+ [6]. Action Network's Nick Giffen recommends Jakobi Meyers Over 3.5 Receptions (-105), noting Tennessee's top ranking in WOPR to outside wide receivers [7]. Model projections for Meyers include MatchWiz at 3.0 receptions on 4.5 targets (43 yards) and Footballguys consensus at 3.29 receptions on 4.73 targets (44 yards) [8][9].
Analytics identify potential value in other player reception markets. The DataPitch props model flags Parker Washington (JAX) over 4.5 receptions (+120, model 58% vs market 46%) and Daniel Bellinger (TEN) over 1.5 receptions (+130, model 63% vs market 44%) as strong value plays [10]. Meyers receiving yards under 41.5 is also flagged [10]. FantasySP projects Parker Washington for 3.84 receptions and 67 yards [5]. Kalshi markets related to receptions will settle on November 17, 2026 [11]. The Jaguars will face the Titans again in Week 12 on Sunday, November 29, 2026, with an intervening road game against the Giants on November 22 [12][8].
Sources (12)
- 1Jaguars vs. Titans prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, injury update, betting trends, and stats - NBC Sportsnbcsports.com
- 2Jaguars vs Titans Prediction, Picks & Odds: NFL Week 10covers.com
- 3Betting Lines & Vegas Odds for NFL Games This Week | Gridiron Gamesgridirongames.com
- 4Titans vs Jaguars expert picks: Can Tennessee upset AFC South leaders?tennessean.com
- 5Parker Washington or Carnell Tatefantasysp.com
- 6JAC Jaguars vs TEN Titans: Receptions NFL Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 7Player Props for NFL Week 10: Bryce Young, Jahan Dotson, Jakobi Meyers, Jordan Masonactionnetwork.com
- 8Jakobi Meyers - Footballguysfootballguys.com
- 9Jakobi Meyers (JAX) — NFL Projections & Game Log · MatchWizmatchwiz.ai
- 10Jaguars at Titans player props, week 10 · DataPitch Props Pickerdatapitch.live
- 11JAC Jaguars vs TEN Titans: Receptions NFL Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 12Jacksonville Jaguars — 2026 Season, Results & Standings | Legzlegz.io
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Bhayshul Tuten: 3+
📈 November 15, 2026: 34.0pp spike
Price increased from 0.0% to 34.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 34.0 percentage point price spike was the official announcement on November 13, 2026, that Bhayshul Tuten was cleared to play against Tennessee, being removed from the Week 10 injury report with no designation [1][2][3]. This positive news, posted by the Jaguars' official X account (@Jaguars), alleviated concerns about his ankle/foot injury following missed practices, signaling he was "good to go on Sunday" [1][4]. This critical update led to a rapid reassessment of his expected involvement, causing the market to price in a higher probability for 3+ receptions, consistent with upward movements in other Bhayshul Tuten receiving-yards markets [5][6]. Social media was a primary driver, as the official team account directly disseminated the crucial "full-go" status which appeared to lead the market movement [1].
📉 November 14, 2026: 20.0pp drop
Price decreased from 21.0% to 1.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 20.0 percentage point drop in Bhayshul Tuten's "3+ receptions" market was persistent market skepticism about his workload, influenced by social media activity and broader game expectations. Tuten stated on Kay Adams' show (Nov 11-12) that his ankle was "a little sore" and staff wanted to keep him safe, fueling widespread fan concern threads across social platforms [4][7][8]. Despite his official clearance on November 13, this lingering injury uncertainty, further highlighted by news on November 14, combined with market expectations of a Jaguars blowout and shared backfield, likely projected fewer receiving opportunities [9][7][10]. Social media was a primary driver by seeding and sustaining the initial doubts regarding Tuten's health and potential receiving volume.
Outcome: Brian Thomas Jr.: 1+
📈 November 13, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 62.0% to 72.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 10.0 percentage point spike was a significant market re-evaluation of the Jacksonville Jaguars' offensive dominance for the game on November 13, 2026, which saw the game spread shift 24.3 points in their favor [10]. This implied a higher likelihood of overall offensive opportunities against a weak Titans defense [11], plausibly increasing the probability of Brian Thomas Jr. securing at least one reception, especially after the Jaguars confirmed keeping him post-trade deadline [12]. Routine social media updates, such as the @Jaguars status report on X, did not contain specific claims or viral narratives directly impacting Thomas Jr.'s reception prop [13]. Therefore, social media was mostly noise or irrelevant to this price movement.
Sources (13)
- 1Will Jaguars' RB Bhayshul Tuten play in Week 10 vs. Titans?jaguarswire.usatoday.com
- 2Jaguars-Titans Injury Report: Bhayshul Tuten's Full-Go Status Puts Focus on Rushing Attacksi.com
- 3Bhayshul Tuten Off the Injury Report, Will Play on Sunday - NFL News | Fantasy Footballrotoballer.com
- 4Robert Hainsey is questionable for Jaguars vs. Titans, Bhayshul Tuten good to goblackandteal.com
- 5Jacksonville vs Tennessee: Receiving Yards: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com
- 6JAC Jaguars vs TEN Titans: Receptions NFL Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 7Jaguars' Bhayshul Tuten News Overshadows Injury Uncertaintyheavy.com
- 8Jaguars' Bhayshul Tuten Breaks Silence on Concerning Injuryheavy.com
- 9Jaguars' Bhayshul Tuten: Cleared for Sunday - CBS Sportscbssports.com
- 10NFL Line Movement Tracker: Biggest Odds & Prop Moverscleatz.com
- 11Brian Thomas Jr. Week 10 Fantasy Projection & Start/Sit vs TEN (2026) · Marginmargin.football
- 12After Monday flurry of deals, Jaguars hold on to WR Brian Thomas Jr. as trade deadline passesnews4jax.com
- 13Friday Quick Hits: Bates, Davis Won’t Play Against Titans Sundayjaguars.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market concerns the number of receptions by Jakobi Meyers in the NFL game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans. A "YES" resolution triggers if Jakobi Meyers records 4 or more receptions, while a "NO" resolution triggers if he records fewer than 4 receptions. The market begins on November 15, 1:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date set for November 17, 2026.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas Jr.: 1+ | $0.68 | $0.33 | 67% |
| Josh Cameron: 1+ | $0.66 | $0.37 | 67% |
| Chimere Dike: 3+ | $0.57 | $0.46 | 59% |
| Jakobi Meyers: 4+ | $0.50 | $0.51 | 51% |
| Gunnar Helm: 4+ | $0.40 | $0.62 | 49% |
| Parker Washington: 5+ | $0.45 | $0.59 | 45% |
| Bhayshul Tuten: 3+ | $0.33 | $0.71 | 34% |
| Chimere Dike: 4+ | $0.36 | $0.67 | 30% |
| Bhayshul Tuten: 2+ | $0.60 | $0.46 | 0% |
| Bhayshul Tuten: 4+ | $0.17 | $0.89 | 0% |
| Bhayshul Tuten: 5+ | $0.09 | $0.96 | 0% |
| Bhayshul Tuten: 6+ | $0.05 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Brenton Strange: 2+ | $0.87 | $0.20 | 0% |
| Brenton Strange: 3+ | $0.66 | $0.40 | 0% |
| Brenton Strange: 4+ | $0.45 | $0.61 | 0% |
| Brenton Strange: 5+ | $0.27 | $0.77 | 0% |
| Brenton Strange: 6+ | $0.16 | $0.88 | 0% |
| Brenton Strange: 7+ | $0.09 | $0.96 | 0% |
| Brenton Strange: 8+ | $0.06 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Brian Thomas Jr.: 2+ | $0.32 | $0.72 | 0% |
| Brian Thomas Jr.: 3+ | $0.14 | $0.93 | 0% |
| Brian Thomas Jr.: 4+ | $0.06 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Calvin Ridley: 2+ | $0.43 | $0.62 | 0% |
| Calvin Ridley: 3+ | $0.22 | $0.84 | 0% |
| Calvin Ridley: 4+ | $0.11 | $0.95 | 0% |
| Calvin Ridley: 5+ | $0.05 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Chimere Dike: 2+ | $0.81 | $0.26 | 0% |
| Chimere Dike: 5+ | $0.22 | $0.83 | 0% |
| Chimere Dike: 6+ | $0.13 | $0.93 | 0% |
| Chimere Dike: 7+ | $0.07 | $0.98 | 0% |
| Chimere Dike: 8+ | $0.05 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Daniel Bellinger: 2+ | $0.45 | $0.60 | 0% |
| Daniel Bellinger: 3+ | $0.22 | $0.83 | 0% |
| Daniel Bellinger: 4+ | $0.11 | $0.95 | 0% |
| Daniel Bellinger: 5+ | $0.06 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Elic Ayomanor: 2+ | $0.69 | $0.35 | 0% |
| Elic Ayomanor: 3+ | $0.46 | $0.60 | 0% |
| Elic Ayomanor: 4+ | $0.26 | $0.80 | 0% |
| Elic Ayomanor: 5+ | $0.14 | $0.92 | 0% |
| Elic Ayomanor: 6+ | $0.08 | $0.97 | 0% |
| Elic Ayomanor: 7+ | $0.05 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Gunnar Helm: 2+ | $0.82 | $0.23 | 0% |
| Gunnar Helm: 3+ | $0.61 | $0.43 | 0% |
| Gunnar Helm: 5+ | $0.26 | $0.80 | 0% |
| Gunnar Helm: 6+ | $0.15 | $0.91 | 0% |
| Gunnar Helm: 7+ | $0.09 | $0.96 | 0% |
| Gunnar Helm: 8+ | $0.06 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Gunnar Helm: 9+ | $0.04 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Jakobi Meyers: 2+ | $0.90 | $0.16 | 0% |
| Jakobi Meyers: 3+ | $0.74 | $0.42 | 0% |
| Jakobi Meyers: 5+ | $0.36 | $0.71 | 0% |
| Jakobi Meyers: 6+ | $0.21 | $0.83 | 0% |
| Jakobi Meyers: 7+ | $0.13 | $0.91 | 0% |
| Jakobi Meyers: 8+ | $0.08 | $0.98 | 0% |
| Jakobi Meyers: 9+ | $0.05 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Josh Cameron: 2+ | $0.30 | $0.76 | 0% |
| Josh Cameron: 3+ | $0.12 | $0.94 | 0% |
| Josh Cameron: 4+ | $0.07 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Nate Boerkircher: 2+ | $0.45 | $0.60 | 0% |
| Nate Boerkircher: 3+ | $0.22 | $0.84 | 0% |
| Nate Boerkircher: 4+ | $0.10 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Nate Boerkircher: 5+ | $0.05 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Parker Washington: 10+ | $0.04 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Parker Washington: 2+ | $0.95 | $0.11 | 0% |
| Parker Washington: 3+ | $0.82 | $0.23 | 0% |
| Parker Washington: 4+ | $0.64 | $0.41 | 0% |
| Parker Washington: 6+ | $0.29 | $0.85 | 0% |
| Parker Washington: 7+ | $0.17 | $0.89 | 0% |
| Parker Washington: 8+ | $0.11 | $0.96 | 0% |
| Parker Washington: 9+ | $0.06 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Tony Pollard: 2+ | $0.59 | $0.44 | 0% |
| Tony Pollard: 3+ | $0.40 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Tony Pollard: 4+ | $0.23 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Tony Pollard: 5+ | $0.10 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Tony Pollard: 6+ | $0.07 | $0.97 | 0% |
| Tony Pollard: 7+ | $0.04 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Travis Hunter: 2+ | $0.35 | $0.71 | 0% |
| Travis Hunter: 3+ | $0.16 | $0.88 | 0% |
| Travis Hunter: 4+ | $0.07 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson: 10+ | $0.07 | $0.98 | 0% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson: 11+ | $0.05 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson: 3+ | $0.88 | $0.19 | 0% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson: 4+ | $0.72 | $0.33 | 0% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson: 5+ | $0.58 | $0.48 | 0% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson: 6+ | $0.40 | $0.64 | 0% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson: 7+ | $0.26 | $0.80 | 0% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson: 8+ | $0.17 | $0.90 | 0% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson: 9+ | $0.10 | $0.95 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Brenton Strange (JAC) and Gunnar Helm (TEN) are key players in receptions markets, with Strange's Over 3.5 receptions drawing analyst support [1] and Helm's Over 1.5 receptions appearing as a strong leader on an aggregation platform [2]. Parker Washington's elevated role and favorable matchup against Tennessee's pass defense have contributed to Over support for his receptions [3], while Chimere Dike's reception line moved up due to the Titans' projected pass-heavy game script as underdogs [4]. Conversely, Bhayshul Tuten's line was bet down from 2.5 to 1.5 receptions due to Jacksonville's expected rushing game script [5], and Jakobi Meyers' market showed 3+ receptions priced at 69% on November 15, 2026 [6].
Sources (6)
- 1Jaguars vs. Titans Best NFL Prop Bets and Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks for NFL Week 10 (Parker Finds Paydirt)si.com
- 2Jaguars vs. Titans - Player Propsalphio.ai
- 3Parker Washington Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10evanalytics.com
- 4Chimere Dike Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10evanalytics.com
- 5Bhayshul Tuten Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10evanalytics.com
- 6JAC Jaguars vs TEN Titans: Receptions NFL Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
5. Trust Index
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score81Good
Trade quality20% of score47High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 31% of the price to slippage.
Trust score74Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. How will Jakobi Meyers' final injury status for the November 15 game impact the target distribution for Parker Washington and Brenton Strange?
| Jakobi Meyers 2+ Receptions Market | ~86% Yes (Nov 10 snapshot) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Parker Washington 2+ Receptions Market | 91.5% Yes (Nov 10 snapshot) [2][3] |
| Parker Washington 2025 Target Share | 25% (over nine healthy games) [1] |
Jakobi Meyers is expected to play despite no explicit injury decision. No explicit final injury decision has been found for Jakobi Meyers for the November 15, 2026 game; however, the market generally anticipates his participation, with approximately 86% "Yes" on him achieving 2 or more receptions [1][2][3]. Should Meyers unexpectedly sit out, market expectations for Parker Washington to achieve 2 or more receptions are projected to increase, and Brenton Strange's reception thresholds are also expected to rise [1][2][3].
Parker Washington, as WR1, would directly benefit from Meyers' absence. Listed as the WR1 on the 2026 Jaguars depth chart, Washington is positioned to be the primary beneficiary of any potential Jakobi Meyers absence [4]. He had a breakout performance in 2025 as the slot wide receiver, recording a 25% target share and 83% route participation across nine healthy games [1]. Current market indicators reflect confidence in Washington as a reception producer, with his 2 or more receptions trading at 91.5% "Yes" in a November 10 snapshot [2][3].
Brenton Strange, the TE1, would gain middle-of-the-field opportunities. As the TE1 on the 2026 Jaguars depth chart, Strange would likely see an increase in middle-of-the-field opportunities if Meyers were unavailable [4]. In Week 1 of 2026 against Cleveland, Strange served as the Jaguars' main receiving tight end, converting 2 of 3 targets into 23 yards, which included a 14-yard touchdown [5][6][7]. Analysts have highlighted Strange's potential for a breakout season, particularly if Jacksonville's wide receiver corps faces injuries, noting his ranking as TE17 in fantasy points per game in 2025 [5][6][7].
Sources (7)
- 1Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet For 2026: Travis Hunter, Brian Thomas Jr. and Morefantasylife.com
- 2When will Anthropic release Fable 5.2? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 3Philadelphia vs Washington: Receptions | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 4Jacksonville Jaguars 2026 Depth Chart | Draft Punkdraftpunk.net
- 5Brenton Strange scores TD in Week 1 win - NBC Sportsnbcsports.com
- 6Brenton Strange: Must-Add Waiver Wire Pickup for Week 1 Fantasy Football? - NFL Newsrotoballer.com
- 7Brenton Strange Week 1 Outlook - Browns at Jaguars (2026) - Derek Brown (FantasyPros)fantasypros.com
7. Does the Tennessee Titans' defensive performance against specific receiver archetypes in 2026 support the high reception projections for Jaguars pass-catchers?
| 2025 Passing Yards Allowed | 230.5 yards per game (10th-most) [1] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Completion Rate Allowed | 69.9% (second-highest) [2] |
| 2026 Secondary Ranking | 27th of 32 teams (Sharp Football) [3] |
Tennessee's defense consistently struggled against various receiver archetypes in 2025 and 2026. In 2025, the Titans' defensive secondary faced significant challenges, particularly against slot receivers, allowing the tenth-most passing yards per game at 230.5 [1]. Their difficulties extended to boundary wideouts, where only two teams permitted a higher completion rate over expected to outside receivers, and only four secondaries surrendered more yards per game (118) to outside receivers [1]. These defensive struggles continued into 2026, with the Titans' pass defense ranking 29th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.3) and allowing the second-highest completion rate at 69.9% [2].
Poor cornerback play significantly contributed to Tennessee's overall pass defense woes. The team's starting cornerbacks, Alontae Taylor and Cor'Dale Flott, were identified as a 'glaring problem' during August 2026 camp, with Taylor noted as being better suited for a nickel role [3]. Consequently, Sharp Football ranked the Titans' secondary 27th out of 32 teams in 2026 [3][4]. This assessment directly aligns with their consistently poor performance across pass defense metrics.
Titans' defensive issues create a highly favorable matchup for Jaguars pass-catchers. The consistent defensive shortcomings of the Tennessee Titans across various receiver archetypes and their overall poor pass defense metrics directly support the high reception projections for Jacksonville Jaguars pass-catchers in their November 15 game [1][2][3][4]. For instance, Parker Washington had a 91.5% projection for two or more receptions, and Jakobi Meyers had an 86.5% projection for two or more receptions, with both players holding significant offensive roles for the 6-2 Jaguars [2][5][6]. This data suggests a highly favorable matchup for Jacksonville's passing attack.
Sources (6)
- 1Week 1 Best and Worst WR, TE matchups: Garrett Wilson set to smash, Xavier Worthy faces tough test - NBC Sportsnbcsports.com
- 2Jaguars at Titans - One Week Seasononeweekseason.com
- 3Titans’ cornerback group is officially a glaring problem heading into joint practices with Seahawksatozsports.com
- 42026 NFL Secondary Rankings, All 32 Teamssharpfootballanalysis.com
- 5When will Anthropic release Fable 5.2? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 6Most Passing Yards Allowed Per Team 2025 To 2026 | StatMusestatmuse.com
8. How do Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers compare in target share, air yards, and yards per route run over their last four games?
| Parker Washington 2025 PFF Receiving Grade | 85.1 [1] |
|---|---|
| Parker Washington 2025 Final Four Games Stats | 26 receptions, 454 yards, 3 touchdowns [1] |
| Kalshi Market 2+ Receptions (Washington vs. Meyers) | Washington 91.5% Yes, Meyers 86.5% Yes [2][3] |
Specific recent target and air yard metrics for both players are unavailable. Accessible research does not provide specific figures for Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers' target share, air yards, or yards per route run over their last four games [4]. While PFF's route-level metrics, such as Share of Predicted Targets and Share of Predicted Air Yards, exist, specific values for these players' last four games were not surfaced [4]. However, Parker Washington earned an 85.1 PFF receiving grade in 2025, ranking him among the top-10 wide receivers, and caught 26 passes for 454 yards and 3 touchdowns over his final four games, including playoffs [1].
Both players are expected to play significant roles in Jacksonville's 2026 offense. Parker Washington is projected to be one of Jacksonville's top two wide receivers, alongside Brian Thomas Jr., primarily operating from the slot position [1][5]. Jakobi Meyers is also part of Jacksonville's crowded 2026 receiving corps; PFF suggested that after the Davante Adams trade, Meyers' predicted target share could significantly increase, and he is a likely slot option if Washington is sidelined [5][4][6]. In the Kalshi 'Jacksonville vs Tennessee: Receptions' market for November 15, 2026, the contract for Parker Washington to achieve 2+ receptions is priced Yes at 91.5%, while Jakobi Meyers' corresponding contract is 86.5%, indicating the market currently favors Washington for more receptions [2][3].
Sources (6)
- 1Fantasy Football: Wide receiver sleepers, breakouts and league winners for 2026pff.com
- 2Philadelphia vs Washington: Receptions | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 3When will Anthropic release Fable 5.2? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 4Examining predicted targets using the "Coach, I Was Open" modelpff.com
- 5Fantasy Football: Most undervalued players in 2026 draftspff.com
- 6NFL Preseason Week 2 Recap: Immediate fantasy football takeaways from every gamepff.com
9. With Carnell Tate sidelined, which Tennessee Titans pass-catchers are projected to see the largest increase in target share against the Jaguars?
| Carnell Tate average targets/share | 6.3 targets and a 23% target share (over last three games) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Wan'Dale Robinson Week 10 projection | 4.9 receptions and 47 receiving yards [3] |
| Chimere Dike Week 10 projection | 2.5 receptions and 27.8 yards [4] |
Carnell Tate's absence creates a significant void in the Titans' offense. A key pass-catcher for the Tennessee Titans, Tate has been ruled out for Week 10 due to a shoulder injury sustained on November 15, 2026, and is not expected to return until at least November 22 [1][2][5]. Before his injury, Tate was a significant contributor, averaging 6.3 targets and a 23% target share over his last three games, accumulating 51 targets and 413 receiving yards on the season while playing 80% of snaps [1][2][3]. His sidelining opens up a substantial target share for other receivers on the team [3][4][1][5].
Wan'Dale Robinson and Chimere Dike are projected to absorb Tate's targets. In Tate's absence, Wan'Dale Robinson, who currently leads the team in receptions, is projected for 4.9 receptions and 47 receiving yards in Week 10 [3]. However, Chimere Dike, projected for 2.5 receptions and 27.8 yards, is considered the more attractive play, as he directly replaces Tate at the Z receiver position [4][1][5]. The Jacksonville defense, the Titans' Week 10 opponent, is particularly favorable for outside wide receivers, allowing the 10th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points [1][5]. While Elic Ayomanor and Calvin Ridley may see modest snap increases, they are advised to be avoided in fantasy contexts [1][2].
Sources (5)
- 1Fantasy Football Injury Update: Carnell Tate Ruled Out, Clearing Way for Multiple Sleeperssi.com
- 2Carnell Tate injury: Out (shoulder), fantasy football impact | Fantasy Roundupfsroundup.com
- 3Who Should I Start? Jakobi Meyers or Wan'Dale Robinsonfantasyfootballcalculator.com
- 4Chimere Dike Fantasy Football News, Rankings, Projections | Tennessee Titans | FantasyProsfantasypros.com
- 5Titans Passing Game Faces Another Shakeup With Dallas Suddenly Looming | Fanrecap.comfanrecap.com
10. What is the consensus reception projection for Parker Washington from leading models like DataPitch, Footballguys, and MatchWiz?
| Parker Washington 2+ Receptions Probability (Nov 10, 2026) | 91.5% (Kalshi Market) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Kalshi Market Contract Volume (Nov 10, 2026) | 14.5K contracts [1][2][3] |
| Comparative Receiver 2+ Receptions Probability (Nov 10, 2026) | Jakobi Meyers 86.5% (Kalshi Market) [1][2][3] |
Traditional sports analytics sources lacked explicit reception projections for Parker Washington. Leading models such as DataPitch, Footballguys, and MatchWiz did not provide a clear consensus on his projected receptions. However, quantitative insights into Parker Washington's reception expectations are available through Kalshi market pricing. For the November 15 game between Jacksonville and Tennessee, the Kalshi market for 'Parker Washington: 2+ receptions' (Yes) showed a price of 91.5% in a November 10, 2026 snapshot and 91% in a November 2, 2026 snapshot [1][2][3].
Kalshi market activity robustly projects Parker Washington for at least two receptions. This market saw substantial trading, with 14.5K contracts on November 10, 2026, and 13.7K contracts on November 2, 2026, indicating a high-confidence expectation for Washington to achieve a floor of two or more catches [1][2][3]. This strong market consensus suggests an expectation of at least 2 receptions, likely in the range of 2-3 catches [1][2][3]. Furthermore, Parker Washington appears to be the market's most confident receiver to meet a low reception threshold in that specific game. In comparison, the 'Jakobi Meyers 2+ receptions' (Yes) proposition was priced lower at 86.5% in a November 10 snapshot, while 'Wan'Dale Robinson 3+ receptions' (Yes) was at 84.5% within the same market [1][2][3]. This difference underscores the market's particularly strong belief in Washington securing at least two receptions.
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The Tennessee Titans ruled out five starters for Week 10 against the Jaguars, including wide receiver Carnell Tate (shoulder), linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. (neck), linebacker Cody Barton (concussion), punter Tommy Townsend (knee), and guard Peter Skoronski (hamstring) [1]. Running back Tyjae Spears is questionable [1]. Tate's absence (34 receptions, 413 yards in 7 games played) is a catalyst for Wan'Dale Robinson's target volume; Robinson led Tennessee in targets (7) with Tate out in Week 8 [1][2]. These roster changes coincide with shifts in player reception markets. Bhayshul Tuten's receptions line dropped by 1.0 (from 2.5 to 1.5) across four books, attributed to his ankle injury (limited practice) and a reduced receiving role; Tuten recorded 15 receptions on 16 targets for 181 yards and 3 touchdowns in 8 games this season [3][4][5]. Parker Washington's receptions line also moved down 1.5 to 4.5 across three books, with his receiving yards line decreasing by 1.5 to 61 [6]. Conversely, Wan'Dale Robinson's receptions line increased by 0.5 to 4.5, with his yards line at 38.5; he averages 4.4 receptions on 6.3 targets per game and has a 62.5% hit rate for over 4.5 receptions in 2026 [6][7]. Kalshi's JAC-TEN receptions market for the game beginning Sunday, November 15, at 1:00 PM EST, prices Jakobi Meyers 3+ receptions at 69% (Yes 72c), 4+ at 50%, and 5+ at 31% [8].
The Week 10 matchup features Jacksonville (6-2), leading the AFC South by three games over Houston (3-5) after a 33-10 Thursday night win over Baltimore, against last-place Tennessee (1-7), which is coming off a bye and a 43-36 overtime loss at Cincinnati where Cam Ward threw for a career-high 304 yards [9][5]. Jacksonville has won the last four meetings and swept Tennessee in both of the past two seasons, with scores of 25-3 in Nashville in November 2025 and 41-7 on January 4, 2026 [9][5]. Consensus lines show Jacksonville as a -10.5 favorite (-113), with a total of 46.5 points, and a moneyline ranging from -535 to -650 [10][5][11]. Expert consensus leans toward the under, with Covers' top pick being Under 46.5 (down to 44.5) due to Jacksonville's 3rd-ranked defensive DVOA and 15.1 points per game allowed (2nd fewest) [12][5]. NBC's model also recommends Under 46.5 and Titans +10.5 [5]. Blowout game scripts are identified as a bearish factor for high reception lines [12].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 17, 2026
- Closes: November 17, 2026
Sources (12)
- 1Tennessee Titans rule out 5 starters for Week 10 matchup with Jaguarstitanswire.usatoday.com
- 2Wan'Dale Robinson: Player News - NBC Sportsnbcsports.com
- 3NFL market · Snorisnori.com
- 42026 Week 10 NFL Games: Jaguars Titans Injury Report - TeamRankings.comteamrankings.com
- 5Jaguars vs. Titans prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, injury update, betting trends, and stats - NBC Sportsnbcsports.com
- 62026 NFL Week 10 WR Props | Fieldworkfieldworklines.com
- 7Wan'Dale Robinson Props, Odds & Stats | LineTerminallineterminal.com
- 8JAC Jaguars vs TEN Titans: Receptions NFL Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 9Game Preview: Titans to Host Jaguars, Wear Music City Uniformstennesseetitans.com
- 10NFL Odds | FantasyDatafantasydata.com
- 112026 Week 10nflgamedata.com
- 12Jaguars vs Titans Prediction, Picks & Odds: NFL Week 10covers.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 5 resolved YES, 15 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXNFLRECPROT-26NOV12WASNYG-WASTBURKS13-6: NO (Nov 13, 2026)
- KXNFLRECPROT-26NOV12WASNYG-WASTBURKS13-5: NO (Nov 13, 2026)
- KXNFLRECPROT-26NOV12WASNYG-WASTBURKS13-4: NO (Nov 13, 2026)
- KXNFLRECPROT-26NOV12WASNYG-WASTBURKS13-3: NO (Nov 13, 2026)
- KXNFLRECPROT-26NOV12WASNYG-WASTBURKS13-2: YES (Nov 13, 2026)
