Pittsburgh vs San Diego
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Octagon model assigns 0% probability, as "MVE Exotics" market premise appears undermined.
- Market participants price outcomes as standard sports events, favoring Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| yes Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 3.5 runs scored | 21.0% | 0.0% | Evidence indicates the game is not featured as an "MVE Exotics" market, undermining the market's premise. |
| yes Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 3.5 runs scored | 21.9% | 0.0% | Evidence indicates the game is not featured as an "MVE Exotics" market, undermining the market's premise. |
| no Pittsburgh over 1.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 2.5 runs scored | 0.0% | 0.0% | Evidence indicates the game is not featured as an "MVE Exotics" market, undermining the market's premise. |
| no Pittsburgh over 1.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 1.5 runs scored | 0.0% | 0.0% | Evidence indicates the game is not featured as an "MVE Exotics" market, undermining the market's premise. |
| no Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 2.5 runs scored | 0.0% | 0.0% | This game is not featured as an 'MVE Exotics' market on prediction platforms. |
Current Context
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The provided page content consists of general website navigation, company information, and legal disclaimers for Kalshi. It does not contain the specific contract rules, resolution triggers, key dates, or special settlement conditions for the market identified as "kxmvecrosscategory-shard1/mve-cross-category/kxmvecrosscategory-shard1-s202651a17d16e1d". Therefore, I cannot summarize these details from the provided text.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| yes Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 3.5 runs scored | $1.00 | $1.00 | 22% |
| yes Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 3.5 runs scored | $1.00 | $1.00 | 21% |
| no Pittsburgh over 1.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 2.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Pittsburgh over 1.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 1.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 2.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 3.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 4.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 2.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 3.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 4.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 6.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Pittsburgh over 3.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 3.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Pittsburgh over 3.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 4.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Pittsburgh over 4.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 3.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Pittsburgh over 4.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 4.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Pittsburgh over 4.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 5.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Pittsburgh over 1.5 runs scored,no Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Pittsburgh over 1.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 1.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Pittsburgh over 1.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 1.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 2.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 1.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 2.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 7.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Pittsburgh over 3.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 3.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Pittsburgh over 3.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 4.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Pittsburgh over 3.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 2.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Pittsburgh over 3.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 3.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Pittsburgh over 4.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 2.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Pittsburgh over 4.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 3.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Pittsburgh over 5.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 3.5 runs scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Public discussion for the "Pittsburgh vs San Diego" market, categorized as Exotics, largely centered on the August 24, 2026, MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres, which garnered significant trading volume [^]. Analysis of this MLB game suggested a closely contested match, with a slight edge for the Padres at home and a preference for the 'under' on total runs due to pitching and park factors [^]. Notably, there is no professional sports team known as the "San Diego Exotics," which is a relevant point given the market's category [^].
4. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
yes Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 3.5 runs scoredPrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
yes Pittsburgh over 1.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 1.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
yes Pittsburgh over 1.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 1.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
yes Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 2.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
yes Pittsburgh over 3.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 3.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
yes Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 7.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
yes Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 1.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
no Pittsburgh over 1.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 2.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
no Pittsburgh over 1.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 1.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
no Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 2.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
no Pittsburgh over 3.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 3.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
no Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 4.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
yes Pittsburgh over 1.5 runs scored,no Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
no Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 3.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
no Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 3.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
yes Pittsburgh over 4.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 2.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
yes Pittsburgh over 4.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 3.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
no Pittsburgh over 4.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 5.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
no Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 2.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
no Pittsburgh over 4.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 4.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
no Pittsburgh over 4.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 3.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
yes Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 3.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
yes Pittsburgh over 3.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 4.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
yes Pittsburgh over 3.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 2.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
no Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 6.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
yes Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 2.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
yes Pittsburgh over 5.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 3.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
yes Pittsburgh over 3.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 3.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
no Pittsburgh over 3.5 runs scored,no San Diego over 4.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
no Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs scored,yes San Diego over 4.5 runs scoredTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
- Factor
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 25, 2026
5. How do the probable starting pitchers for the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres compare across key 2026 performance metrics?
6. What do recent offensive performance trends for the Pirates and Padres suggest about their ability to meet their implied run totals?
| Implied Game Total | 7.5 runs [^] |
|---|---|
| Pirates Season AVG Runs/Game | 4.95 [^][^] |
| Padres Team Total Over Recent Form | 25 of last 40 games [^][^] |
7. What are the key game-day catalysts, such as player injuries or weather at Petco Park, that could alter the final run count?
| Heat Advisory Status | Issued for Petco Park, effective Aug 25-28, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Game Day High Temperature | Near 85F [^] |
| Key Injured Players | Pittsburgh: Endy Rodriguez, Konnor Griffin, Ryan O'Hearn. San Diego: Joe Musgrove, Lucas Giolito, Jason Adam [^][^] |
8. What does Statcast data reveal about potential matchup advantages between key hitters and the opposing starting pitcher?
| Game Date | August 24, 2026 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Starting Pitcher | Braxton Ashcraft [^][^][^] |
| San Diego Starting Pitcher | Robbie Ray [^][^][^] |
9. Which bullpen, the Pirates' or the Padres', demonstrates greater reliability based on recent workload and advanced statistics?
10. What Could Change the Odds
Catalysts for Prediction Markets: Pittsburgh vs San Diego
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: August 28, 2026
- Closes: August 28, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Prediction markets for the Pittsburgh vs San Diego MLB matchup on August 25, 2026, are structured as standard sports-event markets [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: These markets include moneyline, run totals, and player-specific "Hits + Runs + RBIs" props [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Platforms hosting these markets include Robinhood, Polymarket (via Probsee), and other sports-predictive sites [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The designation "MVE Exotics" does not apply to the Pittsburgh vs San Diego MLB game [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S2026CA5139D5D90-F9583055413: NO (Aug 25, 2026)
- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S2026BC063E7078D-92A23FD2E9D: NO (Aug 25, 2026)
- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S202682BB414F632-7E5148D106E: NO (Aug 25, 2026)
- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S2026CB91A7841D7-648E039A30B: NO (Aug 25, 2026)
- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S2026F1ADB0A67B4-A6FB8987A6C: NO (Aug 25, 2026)