Arsenal FC vs Hull City: 1st Half Correct Score
Short Answer
A 1-1 draw at halftime between Arsenal FC and Hull City is not expected to occur, with the market pricing this outcome at 7.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
Prevailing sentiment in related prediction markets indicates a strong expectation for an Arsenal lead by halftime, capping the probability of a goalless first half. The "1st Half Winner" market prices an Arsenal lead at 64%, with a tie at 28%. This positions a draw as the clear secondary outcome. Within the "1st Half Correct Score" market, an Arsenal 1-0 lead is the most probable single outcome at 29%, followed by a 0-0 draw priced at 21%. These figures establish the fundamental ceiling for the 0-0 outcome market.
The specific contract for a 0-0 halftime score has traded sideways in a low-probability band, moving from 3% to its current 7%. The total traded volume of 764 contracts is minimal and suggests low conviction. The chart's current price of 7% is notably lower than the 21% for the same outcome quoted in the broader correct score market, a divergence that may be attributable to lower liquidity in this specific contract. The market's tight, low-percentage range is a direct reflection of the consensus view that Arsenal is likely to score in the first half.
- Arsenal's dominant league form supports high probability for a multi-goal first-half lead.
- Hull City's 0.57 first-half goal average suggests a single goal is plausible.
- Hull City's first-half scoring struggles make a 0-0 draw highly improbable.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw 1H 1-1 | 7.0% | 7.1% | Hull has scored in away matches and their counter-attacking could exploit Arsenal's occasional slow starts. |
| Arsenal FC wins 1H 2-1 | 5.0% | 5.7% | Arsenal typically scores multiple goals at home, but Hull has found the net away, potentially exploiting defensive lapses. |
| Arsenal FC wins 1H 2-0 | 20.0% | 7.1% | Outside deterministic model scope. |
| Arsenal FC wins 1H 3-0 | 9.0% | 7.1% | Outside deterministic model scope. |
| Arsenal FC wins 1H 1-0 | 0.0% | 7.1% | Outside deterministic model scope. |
Current Context
Prediction markets indicate a strong probability of Arsenal leading at halftime. The 1st Half Correct Score market prices Arsenal 1-0 at 29% (32¢), followed by a 0-0 draw at 21% (24¢) and Arsenal 2-0 at 17% (20¢) [1]. The 1st Half Winner market shows Arsenal with a 64% chance (64¢) of securing a lead, while a tie stands at 28% (29¢) and a Hull City lead at 7% (8¢) [2][3]. This market saw a 24-hour volume of $30.9, with $24.9 in open interest [2][3]. Arsenal, currently the Premier League leaders with 24 points from 9 matches (8W-0D-1L), have won all 6 home matches this season [4][5][6][7]. They boast 6 clean sheets and the division's lowest expected goals against (xGA) at 7.2 [4][5][6][7]. Arsenal have scored the first goal in 6 of 9 league matches this season [8]. The match takes place at Emirates Stadium on November 7, 2026, marking the final Premier League fixture before the international break, with Arsenal aiming to solidify their top position [6][9][10][11].
Hull City faces a challenging fixture given their performance metrics. The club sits 11th in the Premier League with 11 points (2W-5D-2L) and has not secured a league win since August [4][7][6]. Hull averages just 3.4 shots on target per game, the third-lowest in the EPL, and shares the third-worst disciplinary record with 24 bookings from 9 games [4][7][6]. Hull City manager Sergej Jakirovic acknowledged Arsenal's current form, stating they are playing "maybe the best football, together with Paris Saint-Germain," and noted that a defensive 5-4-1 setup would offer no chance [10]. Expert predictions lean heavily towards an Arsenal victory, with Goal.com, Sports Mole, SI.com, and Jones Knows all forecasting Arsenal 2-0, while NBC Sports predicts 3-1 and Sports Gambler predicts 1-0 [4][12][5][11][13][7][14]. The Telegraph advises a home win and under 3.5 goals [7]. Traditional bookmakers price a full-time Arsenal win between -650 and -667, with a draw at +700 and Hull City at +1700 to +1800 [13][8][6][15]. First half bookmaker odds reflect this sentiment, placing Arsenal at -208 to -215, a draw at +195 to +205, and Hull at +1050 to +1200 [13][8][6][15].
First half records for both clubs present a mixed picture. Arsenal's first half record in the Premier League this season stands at 3 wins, 1 loss, and 5 draws (3-1-5) [8]. Hull City's first half record shows 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses (3-3-3) [8]. Key Arsenal midfielder Declan Rice has registered 5 assists in 9 league games, a club high, and created 17 chances and 4 big chances, also club highs [4][11]. Rice ranks in the 92nd percentile for chances created among Premier League midfielders [4][11]. However, Bukayo Saka remains sidelined for several weeks [4][11].
Sources (15)
- 1Arsenal FC vs Hull City: 1st Half Correct Score EPL Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 2Arsenal vs Hull City: First Half Winner EPL Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 3Arsenal vs Hull City: First Half Winner - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 4Arsenal vs Hull City Predictions, Lineups, Odds & Tips: Tigers tamed in North London | Goal.com UKgoal.com
- 5Arsenal vs. Hull: Preview, Predictions and Lineupssi.com
- 6Arsenal vs. Hull (Nov 7, 2026) Live Score - ESPNespn.com
- 7Arsenal vs Hull City predictions: Tips, odds and bet buildertelegraph.co.uk
- 8Free Player Props App - EPL Research & Badgesfreeplayerprops.com
- 9Download the Hull English Premier League 2026/27 fixture as CSV, XLSX, ICS and JSON | Fixture Downloadfixturedownload.com
- 10Preview: Arsenal v Hull City | Arsenal FC Official Website | Arsenal.comarsenal.com
- 11How to watch Arsenal vs Hull City live: Stream, TV, team news, prediction - NBC Sportsnbcsports.com
- 12Preview: Arsenal vs Hull City - prediction, team news, lineups - Sports Molesportsmole.co.uk
- 13Arsenal vs Hull Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 07 Nov 2026sportsgambler.com
- 14Jones Knows Premier League Predictions This Week - GW9thatsagoal.com
- 15Premier League Betting | Best EPL Odds and Live Betting at Everygame Sportsbooksports.everygame.eu
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if the first half of the Arsenal FC vs Hull City match concludes with a score of 0-0 in regular time. It resolves to NO if the score at the end of the first half is any outcome other than 0-0. The match is scheduled to begin on November 7, 10:00 AM EST.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal FC wins 1H 2-0 | $0.19 | $0.83 | 20% |
| Arsenal FC wins 1H 3-0 | $0.08 | $0.97 | 9% |
| Draw 1H 1-1 | $0.06 | $0.95 | 7% |
| Arsenal FC wins 1H 2-1 | $0.05 | $0.97 | 5% |
| Arsenal FC wins 1H 1-0 | $0.31 | $0.72 | 0% |
| Arsenal FC wins 1H 3-1 | $0.03 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Arsenal FC wins 1H 3-2 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Draw 1H 0-0 | $0.24 | $0.79 | 0% |
| Draw 1H 2-2 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Hull City wins 1H 1-0 | $0.05 | $0.98 | 0% |
| Hull City wins 1H 2-0 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Hull City wins 1H 2-1 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Traders on this market are primarily focused on whether Arsenal FC will secure a lead or if the first half will end in a goalless draw. The market currently favors Arsenal winning the first half 1-0 at 29%, making it the most probable outcome. While a 0-0 draw holds a 22% chance, there's also significant belief (20%) in Arsenal leading 2-0, an outcome that has recently seen a slight increase in its perceived likelihood.
4. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score74Good
Market integrity is low (55), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score40High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score67Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
5. How do Arsenal's and Hull City's respective first-half scoring and defensive records compare in the 2026 season?
| Hull City 1st Half Avg Goals | 0.57 scored, 0.57 conceded [1] |
|---|---|
| Hull City 1st Half Performance | Failed to score in 71%, kept clean sheet in 57% [1] |
| Arsenal 1st Half Win Chance | 66% [2] |
Hull City's first-half performance indicates a struggle to score goals.
Hull City's performance during the 2026 season shows they averaged 0.57 goals scored and 0.57 goals conceded per first half [1]. They failed to score in 71% of their first halves, yet managed to keep a clean sheet in 57% of their first halves [1].
Arsenal shows stronger overall offensive metrics, favoring a first-half win.
While specific first-half records for Arsenal for the 2026 season are not explicitly provided, their overall 2026-27 Premier League record after nine games indicates they scored 14 goals (1.56 per game) and conceded 5 goals (0.56 per game) [3][4]. Market predictions for their upcoming match against Hull City on November 7, 2026, suggest Arsenal has a significant 66% chance to win the first half, compared to Hull City's 7%, with a 30% chance of a tie [2].
Sources (6)
- 1Hull City Stats, Form & xGfootystats.org
- 2Arsenal FC Odds 2026: Premier League Title, Champions League & Futures | Kalshikalshi.com
- 3Arsenalpremierleague.com
- 4Arsenal Stats, Premier Leaguefbref.com
- 5Arsenal FC vs Hull City: 1st Half Correct Score EPL Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 6Arsenal FC vs Hull City: 1st Half Correct Score | Prediction Marketscoinbase.com
6. What evidence supports the market's lean towards a low-scoring first half, such as 1-0 to Arsenal or a 0-0 draw?
| Likelihood of 1-0 or 0-0 in 1st Half | 50% [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Arsenal winning 1st Half by >1.5 goals | 3% [2] |
| Arsenal Full Match Win Probability | 81% [3] |
Prediction markets strongly suggest a low-scoring first half. Analysis of Kalshi's 1st Half Correct Score market indicates Arsenal 1-0 is priced at 29% and a 0-0 draw at 21%, making these the two most probable outcomes for the first half. Combined, there is a 50% chance the first half will conclude with one goal or fewer [1][2]. This expectation is further supported by the First Half Spread market, which assigns only a 3% chance for Arsenal to win the first half by more than 1.5 goals, implying any lead would be narrow [2].
Defensive strategies and recent form contribute to this expectation. Hull City is anticipated to employ a defensive 5-4-1 formation, designed to limit Arsenal's attacking opportunities, especially early in the match [4][3]. Hull's recent performance, including a 2-2 draw with Ipswich Town where they maintained low possession and registered few shots on target, reinforces their tendency towards a defensive approach against stronger adversaries [5]. Arsenal's own recent 1-0 away victory over Liverpool, achieved with limited possession and shots on target, also suggests they may adopt a cautious strategy in the opening period [5].
More goals are expected in the full match, primarily in the second half. Despite the anticipated low-scoring first half, the overall match prediction favors a comfortable Arsenal win with a higher goal count. Statz.ai's projection model estimates an 81% probability for Arsenal to win the full match, with a projected scoreline of Arsenal 2.5 - 0.5 Hull. The most likely full-time scores are 2-0 (16%), 3-0 (13%), and 1-0 (12%) [3]. This outcome suggests that the majority of goals are expected in the second half rather than the first, though some full-match market predictions, such as Sportsgambler's 1-0, align with a potentially tight first-half score [5][6].
Sources (6)
- 1Arsenal FC vs Hull City: 1st Half Correct Score EPL Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 2Arsenal FC Odds 2026: Premier League Title, Champions League & Futures | Kalshikalshi.com
- 3Arsenal vs Hull Stats, Lineups & Prediction - Premier Leaguestatz.ai
- 4Preview: Arsenal vs Hull City - prediction, team news, lineupssportsmole.co.uk
- 5Arsenal vs Hull Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 07 Nov 2026sportsgambler.com
- 6Arsenal vs. Hull City Odds & Prediction, Nov 7kalshi.com
7. How might team news, including injuries and potential lineup changes, affect the first-half outcome for the November 7 match?
| Arsenal Halftime Lead Probability | 66% [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Most Likely First-Half Score (Arsenal) | 1-0 at 28-29% [1][2] |
| Arsenal Overall Win Probability | 85-86% [2][3] |
Arsenal is heavily favored for a strong first-half against Hull. Prediction markets strongly favor Arsenal for a positive first-half outcome against Hull City, pricing them at 66% to lead at halftime [1][2]. This outlook is largely attributed to key player returns for Arsenal despite some absences, contrasting with Hull City’s significant squad depth issues [4][5][6][7][8][9]. An Arsenal 1-0 score is considered the most likely first-half outcome, carrying a 28-29% probability [1][2]. The overall match market further reinforces Arsenal's advantage, valuing them at 85-86% to secure a win, with an expected margin of approximately 2.5 goals and a total goal count around 3.5 [2][3].
Arsenal's lineup benefits from key returns despite a few absences. Key Arsenal players such as William Saliba, Ezri Konsa, Bruno Guimaraes, and Riccardo Calafiori are either available or expected to start, substantially strengthening the squad [4][5][6][7][8][10]. While Bukayo Saka is out due to injury and Max Dowman is suspended, Noni Madueke is performing well as the sole right-wing option [4][5][6][7][10][8]. Arsenal's predicted first-half lineup features Raya; Timber, Konsa, Gabriel, Calafiori; Guimaraes, Rice; Madueke, Odegaard, Tzolis; and Havertz [5][6][7].
Hull City faces significant challenges due to extensive player absences. Conversely, Hull City is severely hampered by extensive injuries, missing five players, in addition to one through suspension, which considerably weakens their squad depth [5][6][9]. Their predicted lineup is a defensive 5-4-1 formation, with Oli McBurnie set to operate as the lone striker [5][6][9]. The market expectations for scoring further highlight Arsenal's dominance, with over 2.5 goals for Arsenal priced at 52%, while Hull City's probability of scoring over 0.5 goals is lower at 39%, indicating they may struggle to find the net [2][3].
Sources (10)
- 1Arsenal FC vs Hull City: 1st Half Correct Score EPL Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 2Arsenal FC Odds 2026: Premier League Title, Champions League & Futures | Kalshikalshi.com
- 3Arsenal vs. Hull City Odds & Prediction, Nov 7kalshi.com
- 4Arsenal XI vs Hull: Confirmed team news and predicted lineupstandard.co.uk
- 5Arsenal vs. Hull: Preview, Predictions and Lineupssi.com
- 6Preview: Arsenal vs Hull City - prediction, team news, lineupssportsmole.co.uk
- 7Arsenal vs Hull City Premier League match preview - The Short Fusetheshortfuse.sbnation.com
- 8Arsenal injury news and latest player updatesdailycannon.com
- 9Hull City XI vs Arsenal – Predicted lineup and team newssports.yahoo.com
- 10Arsenal Injuriespremierinjuries.com
8. What patterns can be seen in the first-half scores of previous matches between Arsenal and Hull City at Emirates Stadium?
| Most Recent Half-time Score | 1-0 to Arsenal (February 11, 2017) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Another Arsenal Half-time Lead | 0-1 Arsenal [3] |
| Half-time Draw | 0-0 (February 20, 2016) [2] |
First-half scores commonly show Arsenal leading 1-0 or a 0-0 draw. Patterns observed in previous Arsenal vs Hull City matches at Emirates Stadium indicate that first-half scores typically show either a 1-0 lead for Arsenal or a goalless draw. Across documented matches, Arsenal has led 1-0 at half-time in two instances, while one match resulted in a goalless first half.
Recent encounters illustrate Arsenal's 1-0 half-time lead or a 0-0 score. Specifically, the most recent encounter at Emirates Stadium on February 11, 2017, saw Arsenal leading 1-0 at half-time [1][2]. Another match between the two clubs at the Emirates also recorded a half-time score of 'Hull City 0-1 Arsenal', confirming a 1-0 lead for Arsenal [3]. The match on February 20, 2016, which concluded with a 0-0 full-time score at the Emirates, implies that the first half also ended without any goals [2].
9. How do the implied probabilities on Kalshi for first-half correct scores compare with the odds offered by major traditional bookmakers?
| Kalshi Arsenal 1H 1-0 Implied Probability | 29% [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Kalshi Draw 1H 0-0 Implied Probability | 21% [1][2] |
| Kalshi Arsenal 1H 2-0 Implied Probability | 17% [1][2] |
Kalshi provides specific first-half correct score implied probabilities for an upcoming match. For the Arsenal vs Hull City match on November 7, 2026, Kalshi shows Arsenal 1H 1-0 at 29%, a Draw 1H 0-0 at 21%, and Arsenal 1H 2-0 at 17% [1][2]. This particular Kalshi 1st Half Correct Score market recorded a relatively low volume of $911 [2].
Direct comparison with traditional bookmakers is currently unfeasible due to data limitations. The available research lacks implied probabilities from traditional bookmakers specifically for first-half correct scores [3]. While traditional bookmakers do offer full-time correct score odds, such as Arsenal 1-0 at approximately 13.3%, 2-0 at approximately 18.5%, and 0-0 at approximately 6.3%, these are for the entire match, not the first half, thus precluding a direct comparison for this particular market [3].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Arsenal enters Premier League Matchweek 10 on November 7, 2026, as league leaders with 24 points from 9 games (8W-0D-1L), scoring 14 goals and conceding 5, holding the lowest xGA at 7.2 [1][2][3]. Kalshi markets price an Arsenal full match win at 86%, with the spread at 2.5 goals and total at 3.5 goals [4]. Hull City, in contrast, sits 11th with 11 points (2W-5D-2L) and remains winless in its last five league games [5][6][7]. Hull faces significant absences, missing eight players, including defenders Charlie Hughes, Darko Gyabi, and goalkeeper Jack Butland [6][7]. Arsenal has Bukayo Saka weeks away from return and Max Dowman suspended, though Ezri Konsa and William Saliba are back in training [8][6].
Despite Arsenal's overall dominance, Kalshi's First Half Winner market prices Arsenal at 64%, Tie at 28%, and Hull City at 7% [9]. The 1st Half Correct Score market prices Arsenal 1-0 at 29%, Arsenal 2-0 at 17%, and Draw 0-0 at 21% [10]. This dynamic aligns with Hull City's 3W-3D-3L first-half record in the EPL this season, compared to Arsenal's 3W-1D-5D, indicating a potentially more even first half [11].
Arsenal's strong home form further supports probabilities, with six home Premier League wins this season, including four clean sheets, and no goals conceded in their last three EPL games [12][2]. Multiple analysts, including Sports Mole, Goal.com, and Transfermarkt, converge on an Arsenal 2-0 full-time score prediction, while Winnersandwhiners and the PremProjections model predict 3-0 [5][2][8][3][13].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 09, 2026
- Closes: November 09, 2026
Sources (13)
- 1Arsenal vs. Hull (Nov 7, 2026) Odds and Spread - ESPNespn.com
- 2Arsenal vs Hull City Predictions, Lineups, Odds & Tips: Tigers tamed in North London | Goal.com UKgoal.com
- 3Arsenal FC - Hull City AFC prediction & tips 07.11.2026transfermarkt.com
- 4Arsenal vs. Hull City Odds & Prediction, Nov 7kalshi.com
- 5Saturday's Premier League predictions including Arsenal vs. Hull, Forest vs. Man City - Sports Molesportsmole.co.uk
- 6Arsenal vs Hull - live score, predicted lineups and H2H statsfotmob.com
- 7Download the Hull English Premier League 2026/27 fixture as CSV, XLSX, ICS and JSON | Fixture Downloadfixturedownload.com
- 8Arsenal vs Hull City Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Saturday November 7 2026winnersandwhiners.com
- 9Arsenal vs Hull City: First Half Winner EPL Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 10Arsenal FC vs Hull City: 1st Half Correct Score EPL Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 11Free Player Props App - EPL Research & Badgesfreeplayerprops.com
- 12Arsenal vs Hull City predictions: Tips, odds and bet buildertelegraph.co.uk
- 13Premier League 2026-27 Fixturespremprojections.com
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 19 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXEPL1HSCORE-26NOV06EVECOV-EVE3COV2: NO (Nov 06, 2026)
- KXEPL1HSCORE-26NOV06EVECOV-EVE3COV1: NO (Nov 06, 2026)
- KXEPL1HSCORE-26NOV06EVECOV-EVE3COV0: NO (Nov 06, 2026)
- KXEPL1HSCORE-26NOV06EVECOV-EVE2COV2: NO (Nov 06, 2026)
- KXEPL1HSCORE-26NOV06EVECOV-EVE2COV1: NO (Nov 06, 2026)
