Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Harry Kane to score or assist, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

To: Trading Desk From: Quant Desk Re: Market Analysis: Norway vs. England Player Performance (KXWCSOA-26JUL11NORENG-NORANUSA7)
This market experienced a dramatic repricing event on extremely low volume. The contract traded at a baseline of 2.0% probability on July 6 before spiking 23 percentage points to a high of 30.0% on July 7. The price has since settled slightly to a current probability of 27.0%. The overall trend is a sharp upward shift from a low-probability baseline to a new, elevated trading range. The initial 2.0% level represents a historical floor, while the 30.0% mark established on July 7 is the key resistance level to watch.
The primary catalyst for the repricing was Jude Bellingham's performance for England against Mexico in the World Cup Round of 16 on July 5. Bellingham's two goals in that match appear to have driven a surge of public interest, causing the market to rapidly re-evaluate the probability of him scoring or assisting against Norway. The price jump from 2.0% to over 25.0% reflects a significant shift in sentiment, directly tied to this single on-field performance.
Total volume for the contract is low at 282 shares traded, suggesting the price move occurred on thin liquidity and may not reflect deep market conviction. The price action indicates that traders have now priced in Bellingham's recent form as a major factor for the upcoming quarter-final. The current 27.0% level suggests the market is consolidating around the belief that there is roughly a one-in-four chance of a goal or assist from the player.
  • Harry Kane and Erling Haaland lead World Cup scoring charts.
  • England's historical offensive dominance against Norway favors English players.
  • Norway's team-wide sickness, affecting Jørgen Strand Larsen, may hinder offensive output.

Current Context

Norway and England will contest a 2026 World Cup quarter-final. The match is scheduled for Saturday, July 11, 2026, at Miami Stadium, also known as Hard Rock Stadium, in Miami [1][2][3][4][5]. As of July 8, 2026, this fixture has not yet occurred; therefore, no scores or assists are available for this specific game [6][1][3].
Both teams secured their quarter-final berths with recent wins. England advanced to this stage by defeating Mexico 3-2. Mexico had not allowed a goal through their first four games before England scored twice in two minutes, followed by a Mexico goal four minutes later [3][7]. Norway reached the quarter-finals after a 2-1 victory over Cote d'Ivoire in the Round of 32 and a subsequent win against Brazil in the Round of 16 [3]. Key players featured include Erling Haaland for Norway and Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham for England [1][3]. The winner of this quarter-final will proceed to a semi-final match on July 15, 2026, in Atlanta [1].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Norway v England | World Cup Quarter-final | Match previewfifa.com
  2. 2Fixture details as England face Norway in quarter-finals | England Footballenglandfootball.com
  3. 3Match Centre: Mexico 2-3 England | England Footballenglandfootball.com
  4. 4FIFA World Cup 2026: How to watch Norway vs England in the quarter-finals – head-to-head, full scheduleolympics.com
  5. 52026 FIFA World Cup Schedule: Bracket, matches, dates, locations, groups, results, how to watch - NBC Sportsnbcsports.com
  6. 6Norway vs. England (Jul 11, 2026) Live Scoreespn.com
  7. 7Trump Heads to NATO Summit; Oil Swings as Hormuz Flows Persist | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 July 07, 2026: 42.0pp spike

Price increased from 4.0% to 46.0%

Outcome: Jude Bellingham

What happened: The primary driver of the 42.0 percentage point spike was sustained public interest in Jude Bellingham, following his two-goal performance for England against Mexico in the World Cup Round of 16 on July 5, 2026 [1][2]. This heightened engagement is evidenced by a 1582% increase in Jude Bellingham's Wikipedia page traffic on July 7, 2026, the same day as the market movement [3]. Despite there being no Norway vs. England match on July 7, 2026 [4], this widespread public attention, likely amplified by social media discussion, appeared to lead the prediction market in anticipation of the upcoming quarter-final on July 11, 2026 [5][4]. Therefore, social media and broader public interest were a primary driver.

📉 July 06, 2026: 56.0pp drop

Price decreased from 60.0% to 4.0%

Outcome: Jude Bellingham

What happened: The primary driver for the stated prediction market price movement cannot be identified from the provided research. On July 06, 2026, England played Mexico, not Norway, with Jude Bellingham scoring two goals in England's 3-2 victory [6][7][1]. The Norway vs England quarter-final match was confirmed to take place on July 11, 2026 [8][4][1]. There is no credible information regarding a "56.0 percentage point drop" in Bellingham's market for a Norway match on July 6, 2026, nor any related social media catalyst in the available sources [5][9][10]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant, and the market premise appears misaligned with factual events.
Sources (10)
  1. 1Bellingham, England's driving force on night to rememberfifa.com
  2. 2Mexico 2-3 England | Match report & highlights | FIFA World Cupfifa.com
  3. 3Jude Bellingham - GlyphSignalglyphsignal.com
  4. 4Norway v England | World Cup Quarter-final | Match previewfifa.com
  5. 5Norway vs. England (Jul 11, 2026) Live Scoreespn.com
  6. 6Mexico 2-3 England: Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane propel 10-man England into World Cup quarterfinals - ESPNespn.com
  7. 7Bellingham, England's driving force on night to rememberfifa.com
  8. 8Fixture details as England face Norway in quarter-finals | England Footballenglandfootball.com
  9. 9Norway v England - Quarter-Finals - FIFA World Cup Score Centre - ABC Newsabc.net.au
  10. 10England vs Norway Box Score - July 11, 2026 - The Athletic - ny timesnytimes.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The provided page content is limited to the market title and general navigation links. It does not contain any details regarding the specific resolution triggers for YES or NO, key dates, deadlines, or special settlement conditions for the "Norway vs England: Score or Assist FIFA World Cup" market. Therefore, I cannot summarize these rules based on the given text.

Market Discussion

Norway and England are scheduled to play in the FIFA World Cup 2026 quarter-finals on Saturday, July 11, 2026 [1]. Prediction markets generally favor England to advance (with implied probabilities from 53% to 93%), though Norway is considered a dangerous underdog, particularly after their victory over Brazil [2]. Discussions center on the high-profile striker clash between Erling Haaland (7 goals) and Harry Kane (6 goals), the tactical challenge of neutralizing Haaland, and the acknowledged "very tough" fixture for England amid high psychological pressure [3].

Sources (3)
  1. 1Norway vs. England (Jul 11, 2026) Live Scoreespn.com
  2. 2Norway vs. England Odds & Predictions (Jul. 11, 2026) | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  3. 3Norway v England | World Cup Quarter-final | Match previewfifa.com

5. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Jul 8, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Trust profile
Event quality65
Healthy
Liquidity
66

9 contracts · worst first

Elliot Anderson1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Fredrik Aursnes1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Sander Berge1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Antonio Nusa3
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Declan Rice20
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Martin Odegaard36
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Jude Bellingham51
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Harry Kane67
Tradeable · high confidence

Typical bar range 1.6% of price over 9 traded bars

Erling Haaland73
Tradeable · high confidence

Typical bar range 1.8% of price over 12 traded bars

Move quality
—

No reading right now

9 contracts · worst first

Harry Kane—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.08 log-odds, 2.0c, vol 200

Erling Haaland—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.04 log-odds, 1.0c, vol 829

Jude Bellingham—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.04 log-odds, 1.0c, vol 199

Martin Odegaard—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.05 log-odds, 1.0c, vol 44

Declan Rice—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 17

Antonio Nusa—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 0

Elliot Anderson—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 0

Fredrik Aursnes—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.06 log-odds, 1.0c, vol 25

Sander Berge—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.00 log-odds, 0.0c, vol 0

Rule clarity
—Clear

Rules read clean and objective

9 contracts · worst first

Harry Kane95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Erling Haaland95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Jude Bellingham95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Martin Odegaard95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Declan Rice95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Antonio Nusa95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Elliot Anderson95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Fredrik Aursnes95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Sander Berge95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Jul 8, 2026

6. How do star strikers Erling Haaland and Harry Kane compare in goal-scoring form leading into the July 11 quarter-final?

Erling Haaland 2026 World Cup Goals7 goals in 4 matches (tied for top scorer) [1][2][3]
Harry Kane 2026 World Cup Goals6 goals in 5 matches [1][4][3]
Erling Haaland Shot Conversion Rate39% (7 goals from 18 shots) [2][3]
Erling Haaland and Harry Kane lead the World Cup scoring charts as the 2026 FIFA World Cup quarter-finals approach. Erling Haaland has scored 7 goals in 4 matches, placing him in a three-way tie for the tournament's top scorer alongside Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé [1][2][3][4]. Harry Kane is closely behind with 6 goals in 5 matches, putting him one goal adrift of the Golden Boot leaders heading into the next stage [1][2][3][4].
Both strikers demonstrate exceptional form with clinical finishing and key contributions for their respective nations. Haaland's form has been notably clinical, evidenced by his 39% conversion rate, having scored 7 goals from just 18 shots at the 2026 World Cup [2][3]. The Norwegian star also boasts an impressive streak of scoring in 14 consecutive competitive international appearances for Norway, which included two goals in a 4-1 victory over Iraq during the tournament [2][3][5]. Harry Kane has also been a significant creative and scoring threat, recently contributing a goal and an assist in the Round of 16 against Mexico [4][3]. He has been involved in a total of 81 goal contributions for club and country throughout the 2025-26 season [4][3].
The two prolific strikers will clash in a highly anticipated quarter-final match. Haaland's Norway and Kane's England are scheduled to meet in a 2026 FIFA World Cup quarter-final match on July 11, 2026, at Miami Stadium [6][7][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1World Cup 2026 Golden Boot race: Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe, Harry Kane and Erling Haaland in epic battle | Football News | Sky Sportsskysports.com
  2. 2World Cup 2026: Why Erling Haaland is the man England will fear the most as Norway make history - BBC Sportbbc.co.uk
  3. 3FIFA World Cup 2026 stats: Haaland's 7 outscores Messi, Mbappe, Ronaldo combined; Neymar second after Pele; Bellingham first since Maradona - ESPNafrica.espn.com
  4. 4Head-to-head: Harry Kane and Erling Haaland to meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup quarter-finals | Bundesligabundesliga.com
  5. 5US-Iran Deal Financial Relief; Kevin Warsh's First FOMC Meeting | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
  6. 6Norway vs. England (Jul 11, 2026) Live Score - ESPNespn.com
  7. 7Match Centre: Mexico 2-3 England | England Footballenglandfootball.com
  8. 8Norway v England | World Cup Quarter-final | Match previewfifa.com
  9. 9News and Video Highlights - Norway-vs-England 11.07.2026skysports.com

7. What do the latest betting odds and analyst forecasts indicate about the probability of key players like Haaland, Kane, or Bellingham scoring or assisting?

Erling Haaland Tournament Goals7 goals in 5 games [1][2][3]
Harry Kane Tournament Goals6 goals [1]
Jude Bellingham Tournament Goals4 goals [1]
Specific real-time betting odds for a 'Score or Assist' market are not available for the Norway vs. England match scheduled for July 11, 2026 [4]. However, analysis consistently highlights Erling Haaland, Harry Kane, and Jude Bellingham as central figures for their respective national teams' offensive output in the 2026 World Cup [1][4]. These players are considered primary focal points for creating and converting scoring opportunities.
England's attacking success relies heavily on the formidable partnership between Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham [1]. This duo has been remarkably effective, contributing to over 90% of England's total goals during the tournament [1]. Meanwhile, Norway's offensive strategy is fundamentally built around the clinical finishing ability of Erling Haaland [1]. In the tournament, Erling Haaland has scored 7 goals across 5 games, while Harry Kane has registered 6 goals and Jude Bellingham has netted 4 goals for England [1][2][3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1World Cup 2026: England's Bellingham and Kane double act are the nation's Wonderwall - BBC Sportbbc.com
  2. 2World Cup 2026: Why Erling Haaland is the man England will fear the most as Norway make history - BBC Sportbbc.co.uk
  3. 3Head-to-head: Harry Kane and Erling Haaland to meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup quarter-finals | Bundesligabundesliga.com
  4. 4Norway vs. England (Jul 11, 2026) Live Scoreespn.com

8. What are the latest injury reports and fitness concerns for Norway and England's key offensive players ahead of the match?

Norway Player SicknessJørgen Strand Larsen (striker) experiencing a fever [1][2][3][4][5]
England Player OutJordan Henderson (midfielder) out for remainder of tournament (arm/wrist injury) [6][7][8][9]
England Player DoubtReece James (right-back) a major doubt (hamstring injury) [8][10]
Norway's squad is currently managing a team-wide sickness bug. Striker Jørgen Strand Larsen has been affected, experiencing a fever [1][2][3][4][5]. Despite these health challenges, Coach Ståle Solbakken anticipates an improvement in the team's condition leading up to the July 11 match [1]. No other specific injury reports or fitness concerns for Norway's key offensive players have been detailed.
England faces significant player absences and fitness doubts. Midfielder Jordan Henderson has been ruled out for the remainder of the tournament due to a serious arm or wrist injury [6][7][8][9]. Additionally, right-back Reece James is considered a major doubt for the quarter-final against Norway, grappling with a hamstring injury [8][10]. The provided information does not detail other specific injury reports or fitness concerns for key offensive players for England.
Sources (10)
  1. 1Norway team struck by illness in days before England World Cup quarter-final | The Independentindependent.co.uk
  2. 2World Cup grind beginning to take its toll on Norway squad, says coach | The Straits Timesstraitstimes.com
  3. 3World Cup grind taking its toll on Norway squad | beIN SPORTSbeinsports.com
  4. 4Norway battling sickness bug before England showdown - Yahoo Sportsca.sports.yahoo.com
  5. 5High-flying Norwegians affected by sickness bug ahead of England showdown | Flashscore.dkflashscore.dk
  6. 6World Cup 2026: England's Jordan Henderson out of tournament after freak injury against Mexico | Football News | Sky Sportsskysports.com
  7. 7Jordan Henderson injury update as England star’s dad reveals shocking details of freak broken arm | The Independentindependent.co.uk
  8. 8World Cup injury tracker: Jordan Henderson freak arm break, Reece James recovery and more | The Independentindependent.co.uk
  9. 9Jordan Henderson speaks out as England team-mate provides update on 'scary' World Cup injury | Football | Metro Newsmetro.co.uk
  10. 10England handed Reece James boost ahead of seismic World Cup showdown with Norwaygbnews.com

9. What does the historical data from previous official matchups between Norway and England reveal about offensive patterns and common goal-scorers?

England's Historical Record vs Norway7 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses (in 12 matches) [1][2][3][4]
Goals Scored by England vs Norway28 goals [1][2][3][4]
Goals Conceded by England vs Norway7 goals [1][2][3][4]
England has historically demonstrated significant offensive dominance against Norway. The team has shown a dominant offensive pattern, often achieving multi-goal performances, particularly in the 1930s and 1960s [4]. Their overall record against Norway in 12 official matches since 1937 stands at 7 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses [1][2][3][4].
England has maintained a strong goal differential in matchups. In these encounters, England has scored a total of 28 goals while conceding only 7 [1][2][3][4]. Norway's limited successes include a 2-1 World Cup qualifying win in 1981 and a 2-0 victory in 1993 [4].
Historical data lacks specific common individual goal-scorers. While specific historical goal-scorers are not detailed for either team [4], prominent offensive players such as Erling Haaland for Norway and Harry Kane for England are relevant in the context of their scheduled 2026 FIFA World Cup quarter-final [5][6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1England v Norway | The England International Database 1872 - 2026.englandstats.com
  2. 2England national football team: record v Norway11v11.com
  3. 3Norway national football team: record v England11v11.com
  4. 4England's Opponents - Norwayenglandfootballonline.com
  5. 5Norway vs. England (Jul 11, 2026) Live Score - ESPNespn.com
  6. 6Norway v England | World Cup Quarter-final | Match previewfifa.com
  7. 7FIFA World Cup 2026: How to watch Norway vs England in the quarter-finals – head-to-head, full scheduleolympics.com

10. How do Norway's Martin Odegaard and England's Jude Bellingham differ in their playmaking and chance creation throughout the 2026 World Cup?

Odegaard Assists1 assist in each of 3 tournament appearances [1]
Bellingham Goals4 goals in the tournament [1][2]
Upcoming Fixture DateJuly 11, 2026 [3][4][5]
Martin Odegaard and Jude Bellingham fulfill distinct yet crucial offensive roles for their national teams. While Odegaard acts as Norway's primary playmaker, specializing in creating scoring opportunities through assists, Bellingham serves as England's dynamic attacking threat, excelling in goal-scoring and late box entries rather than traditional playmaking. Prediction markets show strong confidence that both players will directly contribute to a goal in the upcoming July 11, 2026 fixture [3][4][5].
Odegaard consistently orchestrates Norway's attacks as their chief conductor. He has provided an assist in each of his three tournament appearances leading up to the quarter-final [1]. Former England captain John Terry underscored Odegaard's central role in organizing Norway's offensive plays [6]. Norway's direct, counter-attacking style significantly relies on Odegaard's service, particularly to Erling Haaland, forming the core of their attacking strategy [7].
In contrast, Bellingham operates as an advanced attacking midfielder, known for his late-arriving box entries and prolific goal-scoring. He has netted four goals in the tournament, including two in the Round of 16 match against Mexico, effectively driving England's attack alongside Harry Kane [1][2]. John Terry lauded Bellingham's individual brilliance and likened his impact to Zinedine Zidane, noting how Bellingham's late runs spearhead England's possession-based, transition-oriented attack [6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1World Cup: Martin Odegaard pulling the strings for Norway | Flashscore.comflashscore.com
  2. 2Jude Bellingham brace vs Mexico: Sofascore Rating 9sofascore.com
  3. 3Norway vs England: Score or Assist Soccer Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  4. 4Norway vs England: Score or Assistkalshi.com
  5. 5Norway vs England: $10 Kalshi Bonus with Code SQUAWKAsquawka.com
  6. 6John Terry compares Bellingham to Zidane: England must stop Odegaard to pass Norway - Gazeta Expressgazetaexpress.com
  7. 7Norway v England | World Cup Quarter-final | Match previewfifa.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The FIFA World Cup 2026 quarter-final between Norway and England is a key event. This match is scheduled for July 11, 2026, at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami [1][2][3][4][5][6]. The tournament concluded with the Final on July 19, 2026, confirming no matches, including Norway vs England, occurred on July 25, 2026 [4][7][8][9]. As of July 8, 2026, this match had not yet taken place [2].
Key players driving market interest in this quarter-final include Norway's Erling Haaland, who leads the 2026 tournament with 7 goals, and England's Harry Kane, with 6 goals [2].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: July 25, 2026
  • Closes: July 25, 2026
Sources (9)
  1. 1Norway vs. England (Jul 11, 2026) Live Scoreespn.com
  2. 2Norway v England | World Cup Quarter-final | Match previewfifa.com
  3. 3Match Centre: Mexico 2-3 England | England Footballenglandfootball.com
  4. 4Fixture details as England face Norway in quarter-finals | England Footballenglandfootball.com
  5. 5FIFA World Cup 2026: How to watch Norway vs England in the quarter-finals – head-to-head, full scheduleolympics.com
  6. 62026 FIFA World Cup Schedule: Bracket, matches, dates, locations, groups, results, how to watch - NBC Sportsnbcsports.com
  7. 7World Cup 2026 | Match schedule, fixtures, results & stadiumsfifa.com
  8. 8FIFA World Cup 2026 explained in maps and charts | World Cup 2026 | Al Jazeeraaljazeera.com
  9. 9World Cup 2026 Schedule: Full Fixtures, Groups, Dates & How to Watch - sporting-events.orgsporting-events.org

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 16 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXWCSOA-26JUL07SUICOL-COLJMOJIC22: NO (Jul 07, 2026)
  • KXWCSOA-26JUL07SUICOL-COLJLUCUM26: NO (Jul 07, 2026)
  • KXWCSOA-26JUL07SUICOL-COLJARIAS11: NO (Jul 07, 2026)
  • KXWCSOA-26JUL07SUICOL-COLGPUERT14: NO (Jul 07, 2026)
  • KXWCSOA-26JUL07SUICOL-COLDSANCH6: NO (Jul 07, 2026)