Norway vs England: Score or Assist
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Harry Kane to score or assist, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
To: Trading Desk From: Quant Desk Re: Market Analysis: Norway vs. England Player Performance (KXWCSOA-26JUL11NORENG-NORANUSA7)
This market experienced a dramatic repricing event on extremely low volume. The contract traded at a baseline of 2.0% probability on July 6 before spiking 23 percentage points to a high of 30.0% on July 7. The price has since settled slightly to a current probability of 27.0%. The overall trend is a sharp upward shift from a low-probability baseline to a new, elevated trading range. The initial 2.0% level represents a historical floor, while the 30.0% mark established on July 7 is the key resistance level to watch.
The primary catalyst for the repricing was Jude Bellingham's performance for England against Mexico in the World Cup Round of 16 on July 5. Bellingham's two goals in that match appear to have driven a surge of public interest, causing the market to rapidly re-evaluate the probability of him scoring or assisting against Norway. The price jump from 2.0% to over 25.0% reflects a significant shift in sentiment, directly tied to this single on-field performance.
Total volume for the contract is low at 282 shares traded, suggesting the price move occurred on thin liquidity and may not reflect deep market conviction. The price action indicates that traders have now priced in Bellingham's recent form as a major factor for the upcoming quarter-final. The current 27.0% level suggests the market is consolidating around the belief that there is roughly a one-in-four chance of a goal or assist from the player.
- Harry Kane and Erling Haaland lead World Cup scoring charts.
- England's historical offensive dominance against Norway favors English players.
- Norway's team-wide sickness, affecting Jørgen Strand Larsen, may hinder offensive output.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | — | — | Insufficient data |
Current Context
Norway and England will contest a 2026 World Cup quarter-final. The match is scheduled for Saturday, July 11, 2026, at Miami Stadium, also known as Hard Rock Stadium, in Miami [^][^][^][^][^]. As of July 8, 2026, this fixture has not yet occurred; therefore, no scores or assists are available for this specific game [^][^][^].
Both teams secured their quarter-final berths with recent wins. England advanced to this stage by defeating Mexico 3-2. Mexico had not allowed a goal through their first four games before England scored twice in two minutes, followed by a Mexico goal four minutes later [^][^]. Norway reached the quarter-finals after a 2-1 victory over Cote d'Ivoire in the Round of 32 and a subsequent win against Brazil in the Round of 16 [^]. Key players featured include Erling Haaland for Norway and Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham for England [^][^]. The winner of this quarter-final will proceed to a semi-final match on July 15, 2026, in Atlanta [^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 July 07, 2026: 42.0pp spike
Price increased from 4.0% to 46.0%
Outcome: Jude Bellingham
What happened: The primary driver of the 42.0 percentage point spike was sustained public interest in Jude Bellingham, following his two-goal performance for England against Mexico in the World Cup Round of 16 on July 5, 2026 [^][^]. This heightened engagement is evidenced by a 1582% increase in Jude Bellingham's Wikipedia page traffic on July 7, 2026, the same day as the market movement [^]. Despite there being no Norway vs. England match on July 7, 2026 [^], this widespread public attention, likely amplified by social media discussion, appeared to lead the prediction market in anticipation of the upcoming quarter-final on July 11, 2026 [^][^]. Therefore, social media and broader public interest were a primary driver.
📉 July 06, 2026: 56.0pp drop
Price decreased from 60.0% to 4.0%
Outcome: Jude Bellingham
What happened: The primary driver for the stated prediction market price movement cannot be identified from the provided research. On July 06, 2026, England played Mexico, not Norway, with Jude Bellingham scoring two goals in England's 3-2 victory [^][^][^]. The Norway vs England quarter-final match was confirmed to take place on July 11, 2026 [^][^][^]. There is no credible information regarding a "56.0 percentage point drop" in Bellingham's market for a Norway match on July 6, 2026, nor any related social media catalyst in the available sources [^][^][^]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant, and the market premise appears misaligned with factual events.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The provided page content is limited to the market title and general navigation links. It does not contain any details regarding the specific resolution triggers for YES or NO, key dates, deadlines, or special settlement conditions for the "Norway vs England: Score or Assist FIFA World Cup" market. Therefore, I cannot summarize these rules based on the given text.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|
Market Discussion
Norway and England are scheduled to play in the FIFA World Cup 2026 quarter-finals on Saturday, July 11, 2026 [^]. Prediction markets generally favor England to advance (with implied probabilities from 53% to 93%), though Norway is considered a dangerous underdog, particularly after their victory over Brazil [^]. Discussions center on the high-profile striker clash between Erling Haaland (7 goals) and Harry Kane (6 goals), the tactical challenge of neutralizing Haaland, and the acknowledged "very tough" fixture for England amid high psychological pressure [^].
5. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
Antonio NusaPrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Erling HaalandTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Fredrik AursnesTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Martin OdegaardTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Sander BergeTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Declan RiceTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Elliot AndersonTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Harry KaneTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Jude BellinghamTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Jul 8, 2026
6. How do star strikers Erling Haaland and Harry Kane compare in goal-scoring form leading into the July 11 quarter-final?
| Erling Haaland 2026 World Cup Goals | 7 goals in 4 matches (tied for top scorer) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane 2026 World Cup Goals | 6 goals in 5 matches [^][^][^] |
| Erling Haaland Shot Conversion Rate | 39% (7 goals from 18 shots) [^][^] |
Erling Haaland and Harry Kane lead the World Cup scoring charts as the 2026 FIFA World Cup quarter-finals approach. Erling Haaland has scored 7 goals in 4 matches, placing him in a three-way tie for the tournament's top scorer alongside Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé [^][^][^][^]. Harry Kane is closely behind with 6 goals in 5 matches, putting him one goal adrift of the Golden Boot leaders heading into the next stage [^][^][^][^].
Both strikers demonstrate exceptional form with clinical finishing and key contributions for their respective nations. Haaland's form has been notably clinical, evidenced by his 39% conversion rate, having scored 7 goals from just 18 shots at the 2026 World Cup [^][^]. The Norwegian star also boasts an impressive streak of scoring in 14 consecutive competitive international appearances for Norway, which included two goals in a 4-1 victory over Iraq during the tournament [^][^][^]. Harry Kane has also been a significant creative and scoring threat, recently contributing a goal and an assist in the Round of 16 against Mexico [^][^]. He has been involved in a total of 81 goal contributions for club and country throughout the 2025-26 season [^][^].
7. What do the latest betting odds and analyst forecasts indicate about the probability of key players like Haaland, Kane, or Bellingham scoring or assisting?
| Erling Haaland Tournament Goals | 7 goals in 5 games [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane Tournament Goals | 6 goals [^] |
| Jude Bellingham Tournament Goals | 4 goals [^] |
Specific real-time betting odds for a 'Score or Assist' market are not available for the Norway vs. England match scheduled for July 11, 2026 [^]. However, analysis consistently highlights Erling Haaland, Harry Kane, and Jude Bellingham as central figures for their respective national teams' offensive output in the 2026 World Cup [^][^]. These players are considered primary focal points for creating and converting scoring opportunities.
England's attacking success relies heavily on the formidable partnership between Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham [^] . This duo has been remarkably effective, contributing to over 90% of England's total goals during the tournament [^]. Meanwhile, Norway's offensive strategy is fundamentally built around the clinical finishing ability of Erling Haaland [^]. In the tournament, Erling Haaland has scored 7 goals across 5 games, while Harry Kane has registered 6 goals and Jude Bellingham has netted 4 goals for England [^][^][^].
8. What are the latest injury reports and fitness concerns for Norway and England's key offensive players ahead of the match?
| Norway Player Sickness | Jørgen Strand Larsen (striker) experiencing a fever [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| England Player Out | Jordan Henderson (midfielder) out for remainder of tournament (arm/wrist injury) [^][^][^][^] |
| England Player Doubt | Reece James (right-back) a major doubt (hamstring injury) [^][^] |
Norway's squad is currently managing a team-wide sickness bug. Striker Jørgen Strand Larsen has been affected, experiencing a fever [^][^][^][^][^]. Despite these health challenges, Coach Ståle Solbakken anticipates an improvement in the team's condition leading up to the July 11 match [^]. No other specific injury reports or fitness concerns for Norway's key offensive players have been detailed.
England faces significant player absences and fitness doubts. Midfielder Jordan Henderson has been ruled out for the remainder of the tournament due to a serious arm or wrist injury [^][^][^][^]. Additionally, right-back Reece James is considered a major doubt for the quarter-final against Norway, grappling with a hamstring injury [^][^]. The provided information does not detail other specific injury reports or fitness concerns for key offensive players for England.
9. What does the historical data from previous official matchups between Norway and England reveal about offensive patterns and common goal-scorers?
| England's Historical Record vs Norway | 7 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses (in 12 matches) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Goals Scored by England vs Norway | 28 goals [^][^][^][^] |
| Goals Conceded by England vs Norway | 7 goals [^][^][^][^] |
England has historically demonstrated significant offensive dominance against Norway. The team has shown a dominant offensive pattern, often achieving multi-goal performances, particularly in the 1930s and 1960s [^]. Their overall record against Norway in 12 official matches since 1937 stands at 7 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses [^][^][^][^].
Historical data lacks specific common individual goal-scorers. While specific historical goal-scorers are not detailed for either team [^], prominent offensive players such as Erling Haaland for Norway and Harry Kane for England are relevant in the context of their scheduled 2026 FIFA World Cup quarter-final [^][^][^].
10. How do Norway's Martin Odegaard and England's Jude Bellingham differ in their playmaking and chance creation throughout the 2026 World Cup?
| Odegaard Assists | 1 assist in each of 3 tournament appearances [^] |
|---|---|
| Bellingham Goals | 4 goals in the tournament [^][^] |
| Upcoming Fixture Date | July 11, 2026 [^][^][^] |
Martin Odegaard and Jude Bellingham fulfill distinct yet crucial offensive roles for their national teams. While Odegaard acts as Norway's primary playmaker, specializing in creating scoring opportunities through assists, Bellingham serves as England's dynamic attacking threat, excelling in goal-scoring and late box entries rather than traditional playmaking. Prediction markets show strong confidence that both players will directly contribute to a goal in the upcoming July 11, 2026 fixture [^][^][^].
Odegaard consistently orchestrates Norway's attacks as their chief conductor. He has provided an assist in each of his three tournament appearances leading up to the quarter-final [^]. Former England captain John Terry underscored Odegaard's central role in organizing Norway's offensive plays [^]. Norway's direct, counter-attacking style significantly relies on Odegaard's service, particularly to Erling Haaland, forming the core of their attacking strategy [^].
In contrast, Bellingham operates as an advanced attacking midfielder, known for his late-arriving box entries and prolific goal-scoring. He has netted four goals in the tournament, including two in the Round of 16 match against Mexico, effectively driving England's attack alongside Harry Kane [^][^]. John Terry lauded Bellingham's individual brilliance and likened his impact to Zinedine Zidane, noting how Bellingham's late runs spearhead England's possession-based, transition-oriented attack [^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The FIFA World Cup 2026 quarter-final between Norway and England is a key event. This match is scheduled for July 11, 2026, at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The tournament concluded with the Final on July 19, 2026, confirming no matches, including Norway vs England, occurred on July 25, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. As of July 8, 2026, this match had not yet taken place [^].
Key players driving market interest in this quarter-final include Norway's Erling Haaland, who leads the 2026 tournament with 7 goals, and England's Harry Kane, with 6 goals [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: July 25, 2026
- Closes: July 25, 2026
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The FIFA World Cup 2026 quarter-final between Norway and England is a key event.
- Trigger: This match is scheduled for July 11, 2026, at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The tournament concluded with the Final on July 19, 2026, confirming no matches, including Norway vs England, occurred on July 25, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: As of July 8, 2026, this match had not yet taken place [^] .
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 16 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXWCSOA-26JUL07SUICOL-COLJMOJIC22: NO (Jul 07, 2026)
- KXWCSOA-26JUL07SUICOL-COLJLUCUM26: NO (Jul 07, 2026)
- KXWCSOA-26JUL07SUICOL-COLJARIAS11: NO (Jul 07, 2026)
- KXWCSOA-26JUL07SUICOL-COLGPUERT14: NO (Jul 07, 2026)
- KXWCSOA-26JUL07SUICOL-COLDSANCH6: NO (Jul 07, 2026)
