Afford / Affordable / Affordability
Market Model 1.0% 0.3%
Compute
Market Model 99.0% 98.7%
Topic tracker · Mentions
General
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 2 so far (1 live, 1 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new General markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated August 21, 2026
Live market
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| What will NASA say during the Artemis II news conference? | April 8, 2026 | 0.9% vs 1.0% | Report → |
