Topic tracker · Sports
World Cup Team Head to Head
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 11 so far (0 live, 11 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new World Cup Team Head to Head markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated July 3, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland vs Austria: Who Will Go Further | August 3, 2026 | 99.0% vs 99.0% | Report → |
| Brazil vs Argentina: Who Will Go Further | August 3, 2026 | 15.9% vs 19.0% | Report → |
| Germany vs Belgium: Who Will Go Further | August 3, 2026 | 0.0% vs 1.0% | Report → |
| Netherlands vs Norway: Who Will Go Further | August 3, 2026 | 0.0% vs 1.0% | Report → |
| Japan vs Korea Republic: Who Will Go Further | August 3, 2026 | 100.0% vs 99.0% | Report → |
| Croatia vs Uruguay: Who Will Go Further | August 3, 2026 | 64.4% vs 67.0% | Report → |
| Colombia vs Ecuador: Who Will Go Further | August 3, 2026 | 59.9% vs 56.0% | Report → |
| England vs Spain: Who Will Go Further | August 3, 2026 | 71.9% vs 47.0% | Report → |
| France vs Portugal: Who Will Go Further | August 3, 2026 | 40.1% vs 65.0% | Report → |
| Turkiye vs Morocco: Who Will Go Further | August 3, 2026 | 59.9% vs 0.0% | Report → |
| USA vs Mexico: Who Will Go Further | August 3, 2026 | 53.0% vs 49.0% | Report → |
