Episode summary
All-In's Best Ideas Pitch Competition: 4 Investors Present Their Top Trades Live
All-In Podcast
· · 1 hr 8 min · Hosts: Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Sacks, David Friedberg · Guests: Aaron Cowen, Dan Dreyfus, Oleg Nodelman, Kyle Samani
Summary
The episode is a live best-ideas competition where four investors pitch their top trades and the panel judges them on upside, catalyst path, and risk/reward. The first pitch argues MGM Resorts is underappreciated because Barry Diller has been aggressively buying stock, the company is buying back shares, and hidden assets in Osaka and Dubai could drive a much larger valuation than the market assigns today. The guest frames the Osaka casino as a free option and says the stock could be worth over 100, even 150, if those opportunities develop.
The second pitch makes a macro case for Talen Energy as a scarce power asset in an AI-driven power cycle. The guest argues that power demand is structurally tightening, that replacement cost is far above the current enterprise value, and that Talen could benefit from both data-center contracts and new buildout. The third pitch presents Aktis Oncology as a de-risked radiopharma platform with multiple shots on goal, supported by cash, known targets, and strong pharma interest in radiotherapy.
The final pitch shifts to crypto infrastructure, with Geodet described as an RTK network for precision location that supports drones, agriculture, robotics, and autonomous systems. The panel praises the format and discusses sizing, liquidity, and how each idea fits different investor profiles, while stressing the distinction between entertaining pitches and true asymmetric risk/reward.
Key takeaways
- The MGM pitch centers on Barry Diller’s 26% stake, share buybacks, and two hidden assets, Osaka and Dubai, that the guest says could make the stock a triple.
- The Talen Energy pitch argues the stock trades at about 7x free cash flow while replacement cost is roughly $45 billion, creating a large gap to fair value.
- The Aktis Oncology pitch says the company has a $500 million enterprise value, cash for more than 3 years, and two lead programs with initial data expected in 2027.
- The Geodet pitch says the network has more than 11,000 cities covered, annualized revenue above $1 million, and 80% of revenue used to buy tokens on the open market.
- The panel’s key distinction was between “entertaining” pitches and those with the best risk/reward, with MGM and Talen highlighted as the easiest to size up.
Notable quotes
“Rarely have I ever seen a company in 6 years buy half their float back”
“I think this company is now in play. I don't know how it's all going to play out, but if you own shares, don't tend to them”
“We do not need AI demand to keep the power markets incredibly tight for the next 20 years”
“It's an amazing moment in time for those types of companies. There's been a structural and permanent perception shift where both sides of the aisle are going to be leaning into nuclear in a big way”
How the episode opens
Maybe you could tell us a little bit about how you selected our presenters and your vision for this. I mean for any of you guys who've been involved in Ira this is a gentleman that passed away from cancer far too young and his family created this thing called the sone foundation and they would host this event and it started in Lincoln Center and they would ask these managers and so at the time I was like a young venture investor and I got this invite and I showed up in New York at Lincoln Center in 2015 and I said Amazon's going to be a trillion dollar company and I was laughed out of the room. Uh David Einhorn, who's a friend of mine, but who was totally wrong, said, "I know trillion dollar companies.
This is not a trillion dollar company. Wrong. It turned out to be a great bet.
I went back. I did Tesla in 2016. We picked the converts.
And then in 2017, I was like, "All right, this is my this is this is it. This is my magnumopus. And I said, "AI is the future.
And then I picked box. I was like, if I had just picked Nvidia, I would have been an Irish legend legend and I could have retired. Anyway, so we wanted to recreate Iris and start to get these great managers who are making great picks, making a ton of money for their LPs.
They don't get the distribution and so it's just a chance to like get to know some of these names. You don't have to see them on CNBC. You'll see them here more and more often.
And we can just get to Opine.
Roll the video. — Yeah. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the best ideas pitch.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- live stock pitches
- mgm resorts trade
- talen energy
- oncology biotech
- geospatial data
Companies and tickers mentioned
- MGM
- TLN
- MGM Resorts
- Talen Energy
- Aktis Oncology
- GEODNET
Watch the episode
Watch “All-In's Best Ideas Pitch Competition: 4 Investors Present Their Top Trades Live” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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