Episode summary
CoreWeave Crash, AI Trade Cracks, Anthropic IPO Red Flags, Bill Gates Doomer
All-In Podcast
· · 1 hr 34 min · Hosts: Ben Horowitz, Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Sacks
Summary
The conversation centered on whether the AI trade is cracking or merely repricing around rising financing costs. The host and the guests focused first on CoreWeave and other neoclouds, arguing that the real pressure came from higher bond yields, CDS widening, and a market that is suddenly demanding much more compensation for leveraged infrastructure bets. One guest said CoreWeave’s structure still looks protected by asset-backed financing and long-term customer contracts, but warned that the spread between fixed contracts and spot pricing, plus heavy customer concentration, makes the model sensitive to funding costs.
The discussion then broadened to Anthropic’s investor-day numbers and its prospective IPO. The guests treated the reported $16.8 billion quarterly revenue run-rate as extraordinary, but debated whether the company should maximize valuation or raise a much larger war chest to survive a future correction. One guest argued that Anthropic should price lower and raise $200 billion to $250 billion if possible, while another said the IPO should be fine because the company is already threatening many incumbent software businesses.
They also argued that AI is simultaneously deflationary and expansionary: software gets commoditized faster, but bespoke software, agents, and coders all proliferate. The most durable moat, in their view, may be power and land, because compute demand is colliding with a real electricity deficit and scarce data-center capacity.
Key takeaways
- The guests said CoreWeave’s debt selloff reflected higher rates and tighter credit, not necessarily an immediate business collapse.
- One guest estimated CoreWeave is only about $5 billion from a break-even edge if future borrowing costs stay elevated.
- The guests described Anthropic’s quarterly revenue as extraordinary, but disagreed on whether it should optimize for valuation or raise a much larger cash cushion.
- One guest argued that power, land, and data-center capacity are becoming the real moats in AI, not just models or software.
- The guests said AI software will get cheaper and easier to copy, but that bespoke software and agent-driven workflows should create more total software demand.
Notable quotes
“the thing I'll add to this is, you know, you explained quite clearly, uh, Saxs, hey, the the GPUs are worth something, the data centers are worth something”
“If Anthropic is going to go through and survive an eventual correction, I think it's much better for them to have 200 to$250 billion today than to try to ring the bell at 1.9 or 2 trillion”
“the most important way, I guess, post these midterms to keep the party going? You have to really start to focus on deficits”
How the episode opens
All right, everybody. Welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. Actually, you manifested. We actually were number one. How good is that? — We were literally number one last week. Only took uh — Only took a little bit of time to get there.
Only took five years. — Only took five. Yeah. Five years went by so quickly. Uh with us today, David Saxs is back. How are you doing, brother? — Good. — You good? — Yeah. — It's good being number one. — Yeah, it's good to be number one. I agree. Yeah,
I agree. — I've done an excellent job. — You've done a very good job. And now — Beautiful. — Now we'll see who takes the most credit for the ascension of the All-In podcast. Uh over to you, Shamath Poly Hapatia. How's your week been?
It's great being the number one position. Yeah, — It's great being the best. I mean, we would have — I feel like Sax and I would have gotten here at least 18 months sooner had we not had to drag you on our back.
Oh, okay. the point guard who actually put all those dimes and positioned the ball everywhere you guys wanted it. Yes, you would have you certainly would have gotten there uh eventually if you guys actually knew how to start.
Where would we be without your constant interruptions? — Sooner. We would have been number one sooner. — You would you would be where every other tech podcast is in the 400s. And joining us this week in replacement of venture — Also number one also number one
Number one venture capital firm in assets under management I believe certainly — None other sir — Then Ben Harowitz is here.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- coreweave debt selloff
- ai trade cracks
- anthropic ipo red flags
- self-replicating models
- bill gates doomer outlook
Companies and tickers mentioned
- CRWV
- CoreWeave
- Anthropic
Watch the episode
Watch “CoreWeave Crash, AI Trade Cracks, Anthropic IPO Red Flags, Bill Gates Doomer” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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