Episode summary
Inside the GLP-1 Gold Rush: Eli Lilly CEO on New Breakthroughs, Addiction & Mental Health, Pricing
All-In Podcast
· · Guests: David Ricks
Summary
Eli Lilly CEO David Ricks argues that the GLP-1 boom was the result of nearly two decades of methodical drug development, not an overnight success. He traces the company’s work from the first GLP-1 diabetes drug in 2006 to Mounjaro, then says the latest wave of products has turned into a global category leader, with Q2 sales of $8.1 billion and growth around 80%.
Ricks says Lilly is trying to balance lower prices with the need to keep funding research. He says the company has already cut out-of-pocket costs from $1,000 to $499 and expects single-digit annual price deflation over time, but warns that pricing too aggressively could destroy the incentive for future R&D. He also frames Lilly’s capital allocation around three priorities: internal science, U.S. manufacturing, and selective acquisitions.
He says GLP-1s are showing effects beyond weight loss, including reductions in smoking, gambling, drinking, and possibly other psychiatric and brain-disease applications. Ricks says Lilly is now running studies in bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder, while also warning that counterfeit products, weak biotech financing, China’s patent-hacking, and possible NIH cuts could all slow innovation.
Key takeaways
- David Ricks says Lilly’s GLP-1 franchise became the bestselling drug category by 2025 after 18 years of step-by-step development.
- Ricks says Lilly has already reduced GLP-1 out-of-pocket pricing from $1,000 to $499 and expects further single-digit annual price declines.
- He argues that cutting GLP-1 prices too far could choke off the R&D needed to produce the next generation of drugs.
- Ricks says Lilly is investing heavily in U.S. manufacturing, including six plants under construction and four more expected to be announced within six months.
- He says GLP-1s may open major new uses in addiction and mental health, with studies now starting in bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder.
Notable quotes
“in Q2 this year. How much did it make in Q2? We 8.1 billion in revenue and growing at 80%”
“We've told we've told the street expect singledigit deflation in this category over time”
“We currently have about 4,200 PhD scientists at Lily, by the way. That's about the same as MIT and Harvard combined”
“I think we're going to get to a point where taking pretty low doses for most people say over 60 58 is not a terrible idea and may help you live longer”
“I think if you look at human suffering globally, 40% is brain diseases”
How the episode opens
GLP-1 drugs have become increasingly popular. Eli Liy coming to save us here has had its market capitalization increase by about 860% since he became CEO and the stock price is up a little bit more than a,000%. No need for needles.
Eli Liy says it has a pill. Eli Liy's experimental pill appears to work as well as the injected drug. It's everyone's job to move the science.
We should always be pushing forward. Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome Eli Liy CEO Dave Ricks. How are you?
Hi, David. Good to see you. Good to see you.
How are you? How are you, Dave? All right.
You want to say thank you? I just want to Dave. Yes.
I don't want to make it awkward. Well, we were sitting here three years ago on this pod and Chimath was calling me a fat bastard. He wasn't wrong.
I was 213 lbs. I'm afelt 172 right. Awesome.
And it's because of what you've done. Thank you. Can I give you a hug?
You can. Yeah. Bring it in here.
Bring it in here. I appreciate it. Congratulations.
That's also Sax lost 20 pounds. So together we've lost a Freedberg. That's actually my husband.
Come on. Nice. Nice.
How much money are you guys printing? My lord. What do you do with it?
You have wheelbarrels. What do you do with Can I please start? Yes.
Go ahead. Okay. Sorry.
I got four more jokes. I'll get them in the end. Um I mean you really have built one of the most incredible business in America, but you've done it because you took an enormous bet long time ago.
Yeah. Um, do you want to talk us through the journey and the process you had to go through and what you saw early on and um, how you made the bet on this class of drug?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- glp-1 pricing
- weight loss breakthroughs
- counterfeit products
- biotech venture capital
- mental health & addiction use cases
Companies and tickers mentioned
- LLY
- Eli Lilly
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from All-In Podcast
-
Jensen OUT as Nvidia CEO: "Spy" Scandal, Export Restrictions, Market Impact -
Freedom vs. Safety: Axon CEO Rick Smith on the Future of Policing -
Midterm Blood Bath, $4T AI Sell Off, Data Center Freeze, What’s Next for Trump -
All-In Podcast REACTS to Democrat Sweep! -
Anthropic S-1 Shocker, Greatest Business Ever? Google’s $500B Wipeout, Midterm Predictions -
WHOOP CEO, Will Ahmed: 50B Hours of Health Data, a 4 Million Member Data Moat, & the FDA Fight
All-In Podcast, this episode and its artwork belong to All-In Podcast, LLC. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
