Episode summary

OpenAI's Identity Crisis, Datacenter Wars, Market Up on Iran News, Mamdani's First Tax, Swalwell Out

All-In Podcast · · Hosts: Travis Kalanick

OpenAI's Identity Crisis, Datacenter Wars, Market Up on Iran News, Mamdani's First Tax, Swalwell Out – All-In Podcast

Summary

The episode opens with a heated debate over Mamdani’s proposed pied-à-terre tax in New York City, which the panel argues would fall hardest on second-home buyers and high-end buyers within 15 miles of Midtown Manhattan. The host and panelists say the tax would crush demand at the top end, hurt development economics, and push wealthy capital toward friendlier markets like London, Zurich, Lugano, Milan, Austin, and Florida. They also argue that high taxes and political hostility can hollow out major cities over time, even if the policy is sold as housing-affordability reform.

The main business segment is an extended discussion of OpenAI’s reported identity crisis and the race with Anthropic. The host says a leaked memo from OpenAI’s chief revenue officer signals a pivot toward enterprise and the agent layer, while Travis Kalanick argues that growth rate and network effects matter most. One panelist says Anthropic is growing about 10x a year versus OpenAI’s 3 to 4x, and that business customers will pay much more reliably for code and tokens than consumers will. The group also argues both companies are now compute constrained and may need to build their own data centers rather than rely on hyperscalers.

The conversation broadens into a market and infrastructure theme: data centers, power, land, and regulation are now central to the AI trade. The panel says public sentiment is turning against data centers, even as they create construction jobs and support the AI buildout. They close with a “Price is Wrong” game and a fast-moving media riff about overvalued startups, bubble-era behavior, and how markets keep rewarding growth stories even when the underlying business quality looks shaky.

Key takeaways

  • Travis Kalanick said the OpenAI-Anthropic race is being decided by growth rate and network effects, not just brand recognition.
  • One panelist argued Anthropic’s revenue is growing about 10x a year, versus OpenAI at roughly 3 to 4x a year.
  • The panel said Mamdani’s pied-à-terre tax could deter second-home buyers and weaken high-end New York real estate demand.
  • The host and panelists said AI leaders are now compute constrained, making data centers, power, and land access strategic bottlenecks.
  • The group argued that public backlash against data centers is rising, even though construction and utility buildout are creating real jobs.

Notable quotes

“Growth is king right now in this in this world uh in this segment. Growth is the whole damn thing”

— Travis Kalanick at 11:23

“and what you're seeing is that businesses are willing to pay for coding code tokens on a meter basis, let's call it like electricity”

— A speaker on All-In Podcast at 27:28

“The open AI growth rates been around 3 to 4x a year. The anthropic growth rate has been around 10x a year”

— A speaker on All-In Podcast at 27:28

“All of these frontier labs have a very serious issue which is both open AAI and Anthropic are growing so fast that they're at a point now where they need their own infrastructure”

— A speaker on All-In Podcast at 33:53

How the episode opens

All right, everybody. Welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. We've got the core four here and dare I say, — The king of Adams. — The king of Adams. Yes. Captain Travis Kalanick is here. How you doing, brother?

I'm pretty good. Pretty good. I'm uh sitting here doing the podcast just next door to David. — Ah, yes. There you go. — Don't reveal our locations. — Please don't dock. — I didn't put my address out there, dude. — No, that's true. Don't worry, Mandami did. He's outside your houses right now asking them to

Foresee trying to collect 3.9% or so. — Yeah, he's he they he decided there's rich people left in New York. So, he's looking for other is it 3.9% a year. Is it per year or is it — I don't know if the percentage has been released yet, but the speculation I've seen is 3.9% but I don't think that's final.

But yeah, it's a pia ter tax. So, if you have a second home Yeah. every year. — Wow. And by the way, it's for any home over 5 million. There's no homes under 5 million in Manhattan. This is not a rich person tax. This is within 15 miles of Midtown Manhattan, you're paying an extra tax. Uh I don't

But only but Jal only if it's a pat. So what it means is that the most — Second homes. — Well, yeah, but the most elastic part of the market is what they're targeting for this tax. So in other words, people who don't live in New York, who just have it as a second or third home, who could buy that property anywhere,

Yeah, — Are now being taxed the most.

From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →

Topics

  • openai identity crisis
  • ai valuation
  • datacenter wars
  • nyc pied-a-terre tax
  • market reaction to iran news

Companies and tickers mentioned

  • AMZN
  • MSFT
  • BIRD
  • OpenAI
  • Anthropic
  • Amazon
  • Microsoft
  • Allbirds

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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.

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