Episode summary
Dylan Jovine | AI, Drones, and Lasers: The New Era of Warfare
Summary
Dylan Jovine argues that warfare is entering a fourth major revolution, following the tank in 1915, the atom bomb in 1945, and smart bombs in 1991. He says the new shift is being driven by AI, software, networked weapons, and autonomous drones, much like Germany’s World War II advantage came from linking tanks with two-way radios rather than simply having better tanks.
He points to the current drone fight with Iran as the clearest example of the new economics of war. Dylan Jovine says Iranian drones can cost $20,000 to $40,000 each, while intercepting them can cost the U.S. about $4 million per missile, which he argues is an unsustainable exchange. He says this cost imbalance is pushing militaries toward other drone systems and cheaper defenses.
The main solution he highlights is directed-energy weapons, especially lasers. He cites AeroVironment’s LOCUST laser system from a 60 Minutes segment and says laser shots can cost only a dollar or two, with essentially no ammo constraints. Dylan Jovine presents AeroVironment as a core defense stock and says its pullback from 300 to 200 could be an attractive entry point for investors.
Key takeaways
- Dylan Jovine says the fourth revolution in warfare is being driven by AI, software, and networked weapons rather than bigger hardware alone.
- He argues the Iran drone fight exposes a bad cost equation: $20,000 to $40,000 drones versus about $4 million per U.S. missile to intercept them.
- He says lasers and directed-energy systems can change the economics because they cost only a dollar or two per shot and do not run out of ammo.
- Dylan Jovine highlights AeroVironment as a core defense stock and says its Blue Halo acquisition and laser work position it well for this shift.
- He says AeroVironment’s stock falling from 300 to 200 creates an attractive entry point for investors who want exposure to this theme.
Notable quotes
“We are now living under the fourth revolution in warfare, which is reallyworked warfare”
“What Germany did well for their Blitzkrieg is theyworked all the tanks together with two-way radio communication”
“These drones cost Iran 20 to 40k per drone. So, they're sending these 20 to $40,000 drones over and it cost us about $4 million per missile to knock them out of the sky”
“It showed off its Locust laser system directed energy weapons they're called”
“they're really cheap. They cost a dollar, $2 a shot. That gives you a serious cost advantage over your competitors”
How the episode opens
Good morning. This is Dylan Joven with Behind the Markets. Happy Tuesday.
Today is Tuesday, March 17th, and I know that we talk about warfare a lot on this channel in our services. We are actually undergoing the fourth revolution in warfare over the past hundred years. So, there have been three military revolutions in warfare over the past hundred years.
The first really was when the tank was invented in 1915. The second was the nuclear bomb, of course, the atom bomb in 1945. And of course, the third was the smart bomb in ' 91, watching those go over Iran.
And if you go further back, some people would say, "What about machine guns? And things like, "Technically, they were actually invented during the civil war. So, in the past hundred years, there have been three major points of progress in warfare, three revolutions in warfare that have changed warfare dramatically.
We are now living under the fourth revolution in warfare, which is reallyworked warfare. And you're seeing it play out in Iran right now. And this is being powered by AI.
And we've talked about this a lot. A lot of people when you think about World War uh two, Germany overran France in weeks. And a lot of people mistakenly think that Germany had better tanks, more tanks.
That's actually not true. France had as many tanks and tanks that were considered to be the equal of their German counterparts. What Germany did well for their Blitzkrieg is theyworked all the tanks together with two-way radio communication.
That was the advantage. So that when one tank spotted something, everybody else all the other tanks they communicated and all the other tanks would come and swerve and basically it acted like a young like a swarm basically.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- ai warfare
- autonomous drones
- directed energy weapons
- military economics
- drone defense lasers
Companies and tickers mentioned
- AVAV
- AeroVironment
Watch the episode
Watch “Dylan Jovine | AI, Drones, and Lasers: The New Era of Warfare” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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