Episode summary
Dylan Jovine | Greenland, NATO, and the New Age of War Investors Can’t Ignore
Summary
Dylan Jovine argues that Greenland, NATO, and the proposed $1.5 trillion U.S. defense budget are signs that the post-World War II international order is breaking down in real time. He says the world has entered a new cycle of geopolitical conflict, driven first by China and now rippling across Europe, and that the resulting shock will push governments to become more militarily independent over the next 5 to 10 years.
He links the shift to President Trump’s proposed defense spending plan, saying it would bring U.S. military outlays back toward Cold War levels as a share of GDP and is partly aimed at strategic priorities like China’s 2027 Taiwan timeline. In his view, Greenland matters because it fits into U.S. missile defense and the “Golden Dome” concept, but the bigger investment point is that the market has not fully priced in a structural increase in defense spending.
Jovine says defense spending in both America and Europe is going higher, and that creates opportunity in a basket of U.S. and European defense-related companies. He says some stocks are already priced for incremental budget growth, but not for a long-lasting step change to $1.5 trillion and beyond.
Key takeaways
- Dylan Jovine says the post-World War II order is ending and a new cycle of geopolitical conflict is already underway.
- He argues European governments will become more militarily independent over the next 5 to 10 years because they have no choice.
- Jovine says Trump’s proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget implies Cold War-like spending as a share of GDP.
- He says the market has not yet priced in the full upside to defense stocks from a structural jump in U.S. and European spending.
- Jovine says Greenland matters in part because of its role in the Golden Dome and broader strategic planning.
- He believes the recent moves in defense policy create investable opportunities before the market fully reacts.
Notable quotes
“We are living through history together, ladies and gentlemen. We're living through history together”
“We are watching the end of the postw World War II international order happen right before our very eyes”
“The world has entered a new cycle of war. A new cycle of geopolitical conflict”
“defense spending in America is going higher. Defense spending in Europe is going higher”
“President Trump announced $ 1.5 trillion proposed defense budget, which is 5% of GDP”
How the episode opens
Good morning. This is Dylan Joven with Behind the Markets. Happy Wednesday.
Today's Wednesday, January 21st, and I am wearing a jacket two days in a row because it is freezing up there. You guys have sent down the cold down here. It's a freezing 50°.
I know my friends in Buffalo or New York laugh at me. One of them is literally snowed into his house right now. But, you know, look, when you get used to Florida weather, Florida weather is a thing.
And lose your taste for that kind of shock you in the face kind of cold. Anyway, today I'd like to talk more about defense spending, more about Greenland, more about NATO, and not really repeat what I said yesterday, but really talk about the knock-on effects of this. We are living through history together, ladies and gentlemen.
We're living through history together. We are watching the end of the postw World War II international order happen right before our very eyes. We are witnessing this and that has a lot of knock-on effects.
Okay. Now, those of you who've subscribed to behind the markets or followed us for years know one thing that I have said more times than I can count is that the world has entered a new cycle. Actually, I said the world is entering a new cycle of war.
Now, I change it. The world has entered a new cycle of war. A new cycle of geopolitical conflict.
again driven largely at first by China. They're trying to flip the international order, knock us out of the center, put themselves in the center. And it's very, very much like the German Kaiser did before World War I.
It's very much like he did. He would always say, "Germany wants its place in the sun.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- defense spending
- nato
- greenland
- china-taiwan
- investor positioning
Watch the episode
Watch “Dylan Jovine | Greenland, NATO, and the New Age of War Investors Can’t Ignore” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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