Episode summary
Dylan Jovine | IPO's Are Being Delayed: What the Iran War Could Mean for Stocks
Summary
Dylan Jovine argues that the IPO market is one of the best real-time signals of market health, citing Ben Graham’s idea that the end of a bull market can be seen in the quality of companies going public. He says the current pipeline had many strong companies waiting to list, which he reads as a healthy sign, but the Iran war has started to disrupt that process: some IPOs are being delayed while others are rushing to market before volatility worsens.
He points to SoftBank’s Pay and Minimeed Group as examples of the split behavior in the market. In his view, companies with strong cash positions or cash flow are less likely to delay, while the current hesitation suggests some issuers are bracing for turbulence. He also links recent stock swings to oil spikes, Strait of Hormuz fears, and President Trump’s comments, saying those headlines jolted markets sharply but then partially reversed.
Jovine says investors should expect more shocks, including in Europe and shipping, but he frames the move as a historical blip rather than a structural break. He thinks a 5% to 15% market correction would be normal and even healthy, because it can remove froth and force valuations to be earned. His core advice is not to panic or trade the news, but to keep a longer historical perspective.
Key takeaways
- Dylan Jovine says the IPO market is a key signal because weak late-cycle issuance can mark the end of a bull market.
- He says the Iran war is delaying some IPOs even as others rush to market, which signals rising volatility and split investor behavior.
- He points to SoftBank’s Pay and Minimeed Group as examples of companies reacting differently to the same market backdrop.
- Jovine expects more shocks tied to Iran, shipping, and possibly Europe, but says the episode is still a historical blip for U.S. markets.
- He argues a 5% to 15% pullback would be normal and useful because it would take froth out of the market.
Notable quotes
“You can tell the end of a bull market by the quality of companies going public”
“But this war, the Iran war has actually delayed those IPOs”
“Some IPOs are being delayed. Bloomberg reports, and this is Soft Banks Pay, which is widely anticipated, good quality IPO, considered best breed”
“And of course the war this is look at the end of the day markets drop five to 15% once or twice every year anyway”
“the key is to remember, pull the camera back. Don't trade the news. Don't trade the panic”
How the episode opens
Good morning. This is Dylan Jove with Behind the Markets. Happy Thursday.
Today is Thursday, March 5th. What a blessing it is to be alive. Today, I'd like to talk about the IPO market.
The IPO market is a very special place for investors who want to look for signals. When I first discovered that in my 20s when I was reading Security Analysis and The Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham, I was on this whole Ben Graham kick, Warren Buffett's mentor. I'll never forget this line.
He said, "You can tell the end of a bull market by the quality of companies going public. And I saw this play out in the dotcom era that at the end of a bull market, things start to get so crazy, the fever, the mania for deals get so crazy that the banks just to satisfy the ssatiable demand of the public for deals or whatever it is, they just start putting out garbage, whatever you want. they're just trying to make money.
You think of pets.com. You think of those dot companies at the time. So, I've always looked at the IPO market for very important clues and all professional investors do.
And the IPO market's a very good finger on the pulse of the patient of the capital markets in America. And coming into this year, the IPO market, there were a lot of planes at the airport ready to be taken off. They were all in line ready to be taken off.
and they were waiting. Some of these companies have been waiting for a while. They're quality IPOs, which tells you the market is still healthy.
That's a very healthy sign for the patient. Doesn't mean the patient doesn't have cancer somewhere else or something else, but it's good for the blood pressure, the pulse of the patient.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- ipo market
- geopolitical tensions
- iran war
- oil prices
- stock market pullbacks
Watch the episode
Watch “Dylan Jovine | IPO's Are Being Delayed: What the Iran War Could Mean for Stocks” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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