Episode summary
Dylan Jovine | Nvidia May Be Tesla's Biggest Threat
Summary
Dylan Jovine argues that Nvidia may be Tesla’s biggest competitive threat because it is moving autonomous driving from a Tesla-style proprietary advantage to a broader platform. He says Jensen Huang has projected about $1 trillion in AI infrastructure demand by 2027, and Nvidia’s Drive AGX Thor platform is designed to bring AI into real-world vehicles and turn cars into robo-taxis.
The central investment point is that Tesla’s full self-driving technology has been embedded in its valuation, with the speaker saying Wall Street may be assigning about $1.2 trillion of value to FSD alone, or roughly $270 a share fully diluted. If Nvidia makes autonomous driving more widely available to companies like Uber, BYD, Hyundai, and Nissan, Tesla’s edge could become less exclusive and more commoditized.
That pressure helps explain Tesla’s shift toward robo-taxis and Optimus humanoid robots. Dylan Jovine says Tesla is being squeezed from two sides: China on EV manufacturing and Nvidia on autonomy, so the company is moving toward areas where it may still have a durable lead. He concludes that while Tesla faces growing competition, he would not bet against Elon Musk.
Key takeaways
- Dylan Jovine says Nvidia could commoditize Tesla’s FSD, undermining one of Tesla’s most valuable valuation drivers.
- He says Wall Street may be assigning about $1.2 trillion of value to Tesla’s full self-driving business, or about $270 a share fully diluted.
- He cites Uber’s plan for drive-enabled robo-taxis in 28 global markets by 2028 as evidence Nvidia is already pulling in major customers.
- He argues Tesla is shifting toward robo-taxis and Optimus robots because those areas may offer a 5 to 10 year lead.
- He says Tesla faces pressure from China on EVs and from Nvidia on autonomy, even though he would not bet against Elon Musk.
Notable quotes
“Nvidia may be Tesla's biggest threat, which is actually surprising”
“they call it it's drive AGX Thor platform basically”
“People consider it worth 1.2 trillion alone or about $270 a share fully diluted”
“Nvidia could really potentially commoditize one of Tesla's biggest assets”
“I would not bet against Elon. Doesn't mean I'd bet for Tesla, but I wouldn't bet against Elon”
How the episode opens
Good morning. This is Dylan Joven behind the markets. Happy Tuesday.
Today is Tuesday, March 24th, and who knew? But Nvidia may be Tesla's biggest threat, which is actually surprising. Jensen Yuong, Nvidia CEO, has projected literally a trillion dollars in AI infrastructure demand by 2027, which is just astonishing numbers really.
And Tesla has been known for its self-driving FSD, full self-driving technology. And the idea for Tesla for a very long time was to actually try to get other people up to use this FSD technology, sell it to other companies like Uber, for example. But Nvidia is actually releasing their own drive platform and it really aims to bring AI into the real world which again I have some notes here turns any car into a robo taxi basically and they call it it's drive AGX Thor platform basically and by the way Nvidia's secret supplier that we talk about all the time here is a big part of that.
So anyway, so basically potential customers, Nvidia really is selling this now to Uber technologies. They plan to launch a fleet of drive enabled robo taxis in 28 global markets by 2028. Now that could have been business for Tesla, which again of course has an FSD, this own self-driving stuff.
But Uber isn't even the only issue. Last week, BYD, China companies, BYD, Korea's Hyundai Motor, Japan's Nissan Motors, and others have also announced plans to use Nvidia's drive technology for their own autonomous driving programs. And look, that is going to dramatically boost the number of cars that are using FSD technology.
It's really interesting because when you watch the history of how this developed here, the car companies were trying to make this FSD technology themselves, but they really couldn't figure it out. The people that really figured it out was Tesla and Google with their Whimo.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- nvidia vs tesla
- ai infrastructure boom
- autonomous driving
- robotaxis and humanoid robots
- competition in ev and autonomy
Companies and tickers mentioned
- NVDA
- TSLA
- UBER
- BYDDY
- NSANY
- Nvidia
- Tesla
- Uber
- BYD
- Hyundai
- Nissan
Watch the episode
Watch “Dylan Jovine | Nvidia May Be Tesla's Biggest Threat” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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