Episode summary
Dylan Jovine | Smart-Sounding Reasons To Sell Stocks
Summary
Dylan Jovine argues that there is almost always a frightening headline that seems like a reason to sell stocks, and that this pattern has repeated across decades of wars, recessions, terrorist attacks, banking crises, and political turmoil. He says he has seen the same reaction since the 1990s, when events like the World Trade Center bombing, Oklahoma City, the Asian financial crisis, 9/11, the Iraq war, and the 2008 financial crisis all prompted people to ask whether they should get out of the market.
His core claim is that those fears have not stopped the market from compounding over time. Jovine says that since 1950, despite events like the Red Scare, the Cuban Missile Crisis, Vietnam, the OPEC embargo, and 1987’s 22% one-day drop, stocks have still risen roughly 100x. For him, that is a reminder that panic is part of the human experience, but not a reliable investing guide.
He also links long-term market gains to the U.S. system of capital formation. Jovine says low barriers to starting a business and relatively mild punishment for failure make the United States an unusually powerful wealth-creating machine, and that investors should focus more on policy than politics and avoid letting the news cycle shake them out of good businesses.
Key takeaways
- Jovine says there have always been "smart sounding reasons to sell stocks," but history still points to higher markets over time.
- He cites a long list of crises, from 9/11 to the Great Recession, as examples of recurring panic that did not end the market’s long-term climb.
- Jovine says U.S. capital formation works because it is relatively easy to start a business and relatively easy to fail without severe punishment.
- He argues investors should think in terms of policy, not politics, when judging the long-term market backdrop.
Notable quotes
“There have been smart sounding reasons to sell stocks h forever and ever and ever and ever”
“Since then, the market has gone up 100x 100 times”
“The thing that I've learned is this is just the human experience”
“The great thing that we have in the United States is we have a system for allocating capital”
“And don't let that human experience, the strum and drum of human experience shake you out of the market, especially if you own good things”
How the episode opens
Good morning. This is Dylan Jveno behind the markets. Happy Tuesday.
Today's Tuesday, March 31st. I had dinner last night with some friends. A birthday dinner, 50th birthday for a buddy of mine.
And we're sitting around the table. And sure enough, the topic of the Iran war came up. And some of the people at the table were saying, "Oh my god, I got to sell the market.
It's a disaster. And other people were saying, "No, don't sell the market. And got me thinking.
I take for granted that I've been doing this for almost 35 years. And you know, I remember in the 90s when I first started working on Wall Street, I didn't know if I should sell stocks. I remember the first World Trade Center bombing 1993.
My then girlfriend was stuck in the elevator at the time for eight hours or whatever and it was a whole big disaster. The market sells off and I was like, should I sell stocks? And I remember the Oklahoma City bombing.
Should I sell stocks? I remember the government shutdown. I remember long-term capital management, the Asia financial crisis.
There have been smart sounding reasons to sell stocks h forever and ever and ever and ever. I wrote a few of them down here. The Russia default, oh my god, that was everybody.
YKK, everyone's telling sell stocks. Recession, everybody's saying sell stocks. 911, I remember 911 very much.
Everybody's saying sell stocks. The Iraq war, oh my god, you got to get out of stocks. Afghanistan.
Oh, you got to get out of stocks. Banking crisis 2009, 2006, seven, eight, nine. Housing crisis, the great recession, there's the Europe debt crisis, there's slow growth, inflation, and you know what I said to my friends is there are always smart sounding reasons to sell stocks.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- stock selling
- market panic
- long-term returns
- capital formation
- us economy
Watch the episode
Watch “Dylan Jovine | Smart-Sounding Reasons To Sell Stocks” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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