Episode summary
Dylan Jovine | SpaceX Update: E*TRADE Said To Have Shares
Summary
SpaceX’s IPO terms appear to be shifting quickly, and Dylan Jovine says the latest change is that retail access now looks likely to come through E*TRADE, under Morgan Stanley, rather than directly through Morgan Stanley or the earlier Bank of America expectation. He says the offering is now being described as a $75 billion raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation, and that Starlink is central to the company’s growth story, especially after a new T-Mobile deal to support direct-to-mobile satellite service.
Jovine argues that SpaceX is an exceptional business on the operating side, citing about $16 billion in annual revenue and roughly $8 billion in EBITDA, but he contrasts that with the unprofitable nature of the broader satellite-mobile opportunity and the other businesses being folded into the story. His main point is that the stock could still trade very differently from the business itself because the IPO is being driven by intense demand, marketing, and scarcity.
He compares the rollout to a movie-style launch campaign and says Elon Musk’s brand is creating a frenzy that could lift the shares on debut. But he also warns that the valuation is already extremely rich and that institutional investors may be using the IPO to sell into retail demand.
Key takeaways
- Dylan Jovine says SpaceX retail access now appears to be funneled through E*TRADE and Morgan Stanley, replacing an earlier Bank of America expectation.
- He says SpaceX is reportedly aiming to raise $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation.
- Jovine cites about $16 billion in annual revenue and about $8 billion in EBITDA for SpaceX’s core business, calling it a strong operation.
- He argues the IPO is being marketed like a major movie launch, with Elon Musk’s brand creating a frenzy around the stock.
- Jovine says the shares are likely richly valued and that institutions may sell to retail investors at the IPO price.
- He does not give a firm buy or sell call, saying the first-day move could depend on crowd demand.
Notable quotes
“It now looks like E*TRADE, Morgan Stanley is going to get a big block of SpaceX shares”
“We know SpaceX, the amount they're going to raise, it's $75 billion. The final valuation looks set at $1.75 trillion”
“SpaceX the business on its own, a hell of a business, truly an amazing business”
“this roadshow is more like a movie launch”
“I think the shares are super richly valued”
How the episode opens
Good morning. This Dylan Jovanev behind the market, happy Wednesday. Today is Wednesday, April 8th and it is like Noah's Ark down here.
It is pouring. Anyway, I promised to keep you updated on the SpaceX IPO. I know that if I don't do that, I'm going to basically be a revolt among our members and my friends.
So, I am a man of my word. There have been new details on the SpaceX IPO coming out. And first things first, the last time I updated you a couple weeks back, it looked like Bank of America was going to get a lot of allotment for retail investors.
That has now shifted. It now looks like E*TRADE, Morgan Stanley is going to get a big block of SpaceX shares and it is going to be funneled, you'll be able to access it not through Morgan Stanley directly, but through E*TRADE. That is how the state of play looks right now, but this is a fluid situation.
I'm just letting you guys know that. So, what do we know now that we didn't know 2 weeks ago? We know a couple things.
We know SpaceX, the amount they're going to raise, it's $75 billion. The final valuation looks set at $1.75 trillion. We know that a big part of SpaceX's plan is to sell Starlink mobile direct to consumers.
And to that end, they just signed a deal with T-Mobile, which is going to pay SpaceX $100 million for the right to sell their direct-to-mobile Starlink satellite service, which is ironic because I use T-Mobile and my goodness, it is literally the worst service in the world. I don't know. Yeah, let's hope SpaceX really improves that.
Anyway, but the key question here is, should you or shouldn't you with the SpaceX IPO?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- spacex ipo
- retail access
- valuation and fundraising
- xai profitability risk
- direct-to-mobile satellite growth
Companies and tickers mentioned
- MS
- TMUS
- SpaceX
- E*TRADE
- Morgan Stanley
- xAI
- T-Mobile
- Starlink
Watch the episode
Watch “Dylan Jovine | SpaceX Update: E*TRADE Said To Have Shares” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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