Episode summary
Dylan Jovine | The U.S. and China Are Entering a Dangerous New Phase
Summary
Dylan Jovine argues that a series of recent developments — the Venezuela operation, the drawdown of 4,400 Starlink satellites, renewed interest in Greenland, and a planned increase in U.S. military spending to $1.5 trillion from $1 trillion — are connected by a single theme: preparation for a more aggressive phase of competition with China. He says the individual events may look disconnected, but together they suggest the U.S. is getting ready for either a hot war or a sharply intensified cold war.
He frames Venezuela as a geopolitical move tied to China and oil, and says it could help weaken Russia while creating pressure on Beijing. He also points to Xi Jinping’s reported mandate that China’s military be ready to take Taiwan by 2027, treating that as a countdown clock that has already started. In his view, China will not wait for permission or legal formalities, so the question is how the U.S. responds.
Jovine describes the current moment as a return to hard-edged great-power politics, where power matters more than niceties. He says Trump’s actions are best understood through realpolitik, and he expects 2026 to be a decisive year in the U.S.-China contest.
Key takeaways
- Jovine says the Venezuela operation, Starlink satellite drawdown, Greenland push, and higher defense spending all point to a new phase in the U.S.-China rivalry.
- He argues the Venezuela move is really about China and oil, not drugs, and may also weaken Russia.
- Jovine says Xi Jinping has set 2027 as the year China’s military should be ready for Taiwan, which makes the current period a countdown.
- He believes the U.S. is preparing for either a hot war with China or a serious cold war, not business as usual.
- Jovine frames Trump’s approach as realpolitik: power matters, and superpower politeness is disappearing.
Notable quotes
“we are entering a new much sharper elbowed phase of this geopolitical contest with China”
“the countdown to that has begun. These are all signals that the countdown clock has begun”
“Power matters matters a great deal and a lot of people are alarmed by how openly and aggressively Trump exercises it”
“we are now entering that kind of cold war real competition phase of our contest with China”
How the episode opens
Good morning. This is Dylan Joanet with Behind the Market. Happy Monday.
Today is Monday the 12th. Look at that. I am happy to be back.
I got into the office early today. It's 5:50. I'm recording this.
I'm just grateful to be back with you and I'm really looking forward to a wonderful and fun 2026. I'll tell you something, a lot of stuff happened. The last video I recorded that night, we went and snatched the Venezuelan president.
What a heck of a presidential kidnapping that was. But I'll tell you something. A lot happened in the past week.
And I just want to talk about them for a moment because they have massive implications. Think about what happened in the past week. Trump toppled the Venezuela dictator.
Not the government. It's regime change at top for sure, but it toppled the dictator, snatched them up. That is not about drugs, despite what the press says.
It's definitely about China and oil. China and Russia had military assets there, and we weren't sure what people were setting up. They were trying to maybe create staging areas in the United States on our homeland, which also ties into ICE.
There's a whole bunch of complicated stuff happening there from a national security perspective that friends of mine that are in that business talked to me about off the record and I really can't talk about it. So that was about China really. And you also had Elon Musk start the process of lowering 4,400 Starlink satellites last week which is going to happen this year.
It's happening right now. Imagine 4,400 of these things in the air just slowly coming down. So now all of a sudden Greenland, you know, all of a sudden there's this big push for Greenland.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us china geopolitical competition
- military spending increase
- geopolitical risk
- starlink satellites
- great power rivalry
Companies and tickers mentioned
- SpaceX
Watch the episode
Watch “Dylan Jovine | The U.S. and China Are Entering a Dangerous New Phase” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from Behind The Markets Podcast
-
Nvidia CEO Out: 4 Reasons I’m Not Panicking About Nvidia -
The Mag 7 Sell-Off: My 3 Secrets to Picking Stocks -
Morgan Stanley’s AI Winners List Is Full of Bank Stocks -
Anthropic IPO: Why I’m Not Rushing to Buy at $1 Trillion -
Chip Stocks Sell-Off: Why the AI Build-Out Just Went From 3 to 5 Years -
Midterm Election Results: The Stock Market’s Winners and Losers
Behind The Markets Podcast, this episode and its artwork belong to their owners. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
