Episode summary
Dylan Jovine | Why We Recommended Selling 10 Stocks Last Week
Summary
Dylan Jovine says Behind the Markets recommended closing 10 positions, either in whole or in part, because the portfolio has been seeing better opportunities to raise cash while the market remains extended. He argues that the stock market looks strong on the surface, with the Dow hitting an all-time high of 50,000, but the data underneath looks weaker and more fragile than the headline indexes suggest.
He points to slower labor conditions, including nearly a million fewer open jobs last year and only 22,000 private-sector jobs added in January, as evidence of what he calls a "C minus economy" supporting an "A+ stock market." He also says office commercial mortgage-backed securities delinquency rates jumped to a record 12.3%, which he sees as a sign that commercial real estate is under severe stress.
Dylan also argues that institutional investors and hedge funds have been selling into strength, and that AI is beginning to pressure software companies and white-collar jobs. He says tariff uncertainty and shifting trade policy are making it harder for businesses to commit to long-term investments, which adds to the case for trimming speculative holdings and waiting patiently for better entry points.
Key takeaways
- Dylan Jovine says Behind the Markets recommended closing 10 positions last week, mainly to reduce exposure after a strong run.
- He says the market is making new highs while the real economy looks weaker, citing nearly a million fewer open jobs and only 22,000 private-sector jobs added in January.
- Dylan says office CMBS delinquency rates hit a record 12.3%, showing commercial real estate stress is now in full swing.
- He argues hedge funds and institutional investors are selling into strength, which he reads as smart money preparing for more volatility.
- He says tariff uncertainty and AI disruption are both making businesses more cautious about hiring and capital spending.
Notable quotes
“The market really started selling off and then it rebounded greatly Friday. It was up a thousand points plus and the Dow hit an all-time high of 50,000”
“we have a C minus economy supporting an A+ stock market”
“The delinquency rate on commercial mortgage back securities for offices jumped 103 basis points in January to a record 12.3%”
“We don't have to hit, we don't have to swing at every pitch. We could be patient and that's been a good strategy for us throughout our years of doing this”
How the episode opens
Good morning. This is Dylan Joven with Behind the Markets. Happy Tuesday.
Today's Tuesday, February 10th. What a great day it is to be alive. I am grateful to be here with you today.
You know, today I'd like to talk about some of the questions I've been getting from members. We recommended the behind the markets mono portfolio recommended closing 10 positions either in whole or in part last week. And that's a big chunk for us.
And there are a couple reasons we did that. Number one is we wanted to pull our sales in a little bit. I know the market looks good on the surface.
We're hitting new highs, but underneath the surface, there are some things that I've been concerned about it. We recommended selling those at the beginning of last week and then of course we saw in following days that incredible volatility. So what does that tell you?
The market really started selling off and then it rebounded greatly Friday. It was up a thousand points plus and the Dow hit an all-time high of 50,000. So it tells you a couple things.
Number one, it tells you that there are other investors like me who were leaning on the market selling off. And remember something, bare markets don't just boom happen like that. You have savvy, smart money selling into the last bit of strength in the stock market.
And who's providing the liquidity is less sophisticated money, buyers that are late to the party. Anyway, so on the surface, things look pretty good. AI boom, you know, tariffs or, you know, Trump manufacturing boom, etc., etc.
But, you know, when you look underneath the surface, and this is why me and a lot of my peers and institutional investors and sophisticated investors have been selling into this a little bit, is when you look underneath the surface, the data looks a little soggy, for lack of a better word.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- stock vs real economy gap
- job growth slowdown
- commercial real estate stress
- tariffs and trade policy uncertainty
- ai-driven volatility
Watch the episode
Watch “Dylan Jovine | Why We Recommended Selling 10 Stocks Last Week” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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