Episode summary
Intuitive Surgical and Aurora Stock: Where Robots Pay Off First
Summary
Robotics is framed as a capital-allocation story, not a humanoid future story. The host argues that the businesses already working at scale are warehouse autonomous mobile robots, surgical robots, robotaxis, drone delivery, and soon autonomous long-haul trucking, because these systems operate on fixed routes or within fixed facilities where software can replace labor economically.
He points to Amazon crossing 1 million warehouse robots, Intuitive Surgical’s da Vinci platform dominating North America’s surgical robotics market, Waymo operating over 4,000 vehicles across 14 U.S. cities, and Zipline passing 2.5 million commercial deliveries with partners like Walmart and Chipotle. In his view, these are the real mass-adoption robotics cases today, while humanoids still have time to mature.
Aurora is presented as the next major test case, with the host saying it believes it can cut costs by 50% in long-haul trucking. But he says the stock is not yet ready to buy and argues investors should focus on return on invested capital, not the novelty of the technology alone. He warns that the same efficiency gains that make robotics attractive will pressure jobs in trucking, delivery, and other labor-heavy sectors.
Key takeaways
- The host says the best robotics investments are the ones where software can replace labor on fixed routes or inside fixed facilities.
- Amazon’s warehouse robots, Intuitive Surgical’s da Vinci system, Waymo, and Zipline are described as already commercial or near-commercial at scale.
- Waymo is said to run over 4,000 vehicles in 14 U.S. cities and deliver about half a million rides a week.
- Zipline is said to have passed 2.5 million commercial deliveries and works with Walmart and Chipotle.
- The host says Aurora’s autonomous trucking could cut costs by 50%, but he is not ready to buy the stock yet.
Notable quotes
“the robot story is so much bigger than that. And really, when you actually look at the robots that are at mass adoption or closest to mass adoption, it's not really humanoids yet”
“Amazon has, you know, a million of these. It said it crossed the million mark in June, actually”
“the dominant company there is Intuitive Surgical. Their da Vinci system, what a great company that is. That is the template”
“Waymo operates over 4,000 vehicles in 14 US cities. Which, you know, half a million rides a week”
“Aurora is actually delivering this. And they have a bunch of test runs. I've been looking at their stock. Their stock isn't quite ready to buy”
How the episode opens
Good morning. This is doing Jovenel with Behind the Markets. Happy Friday.
Today is Friday, October 23rd. TGIF. Today, I'd like to continue our discussion about robots.
Yesterday, we talked about the actuator opportunity inside of humanoid robots, but the robot story is so much bigger than that. And really, when you actually look at the robots that are at mass adoption or closest to mass adoption, it's not really humanoids yet. So, Tesla has some time to work out some of their manufacturing kinks.
But really, you know, I've just spent the last hour and a half getting this ready for you. Already commercial at scale robots are really, you know, warehouse AMRs and person-to-person systems. And an AMR is a kind of a warehouse autonomous mobile robot.
Think of an Amazon factory, which is kind of a self-guided vehicle that can transport itself through the factory from point A to point B, and really kind of navigate the floors independently. And you know, this is already mass adoption, commercial scale. Amazon has, you know, a million of these.
It said it crossed the million mark in June, actually. Also, another area of robotics that really is big are surgical robots. I mean, North America has 74% of the market.
And basically, the dominant company there is Intuitive Surgical. Their da Vinci system, what a great company that is. That is the template.
And you know, it's interesting because instead of standing over the patient, and those of you who are doctors know this or surgeons know this specifically, the surgeon sits at an air bike console and operates robotic arms using hand and foot controls. So, you know, here I have a list of all the very precise surgeries and areas that these things do. Urology, gynecology, general and gastrointestinal surgery, colorectal surgery, thoracic and cardiac surgery, head and neck surgery.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- robotics adoption
- autonomous logistics
- capex vs labor economics
- surgical automation
- self-driving trucking
Companies and tickers mentioned
- ISRG
- AMZN
- GOOGL
- GOOG
- WMT
- CMG
- AUR
- Intuitive Surgical
- Amazon
- Waymo
- Zipline
- Walmart
- Chipotle
- Aurora
Watch the episode
Watch “Intuitive Surgical and Aurora Stock: Where Robots Pay Off First” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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