Episode summary
Six Companies Racing to Replace the ISS and Who NASA Favors
Summary
Dylan Grice argues that the fight to replace the ISS matters as much for investors as for space policy, because NASA’s choice will reveal how the government views the next phase of activity in orbit. He says the calculation has changed since the original ISS was built: China is now a true peer competitor, so the next station may mix science with military use in a way the first one did not.
Based on a June 2026 GAO report, he says NASA is vetting six companies: Axiom Space, Blue Origin, Sierra Space, SpaceX, Vast Space, and Starlab Space. He highlights each one’s edge, including Axiom’s first-mover advantage, Vast’s aggressive timeline, and Starlab’s experience and heavyweight partners, while also noting weaknesses such as Vast’s limited crewed-operations experience and Axiom’s reported financial strain.
Grice’s central claim is that NASA will not really build the station itself; it will rent it, potentially for as much as a billion dollars a year. He thinks the field is narrowing to three realistic contenders — Vast, Starlab, and Axiom — while Blue Origin, Sierra Space, and SpaceX are more likely to serve as component or technology contributors than prime winners.
Key takeaways
- Dylan Grice says the next space-station winner will signal how NASA and the U.S. government think about science, military use, and competition with China.
- He says NASA is effectively set to become a tenant, with the winning company potentially earning as much as a billion dollars a year.
- Grice считает Vast Space’s main advantage is speed, but he flags its lack of crewed-operations experience as a major weakness.
- He says Starlab Space has strong partners, including Airbus and Palantir, and Axiom Space has the most flight experience.
- Grice says Blue Origin, Sierra Space, and SpaceX are less likely to win the prime contract and may instead contribute modules or technology.
Notable quotes
“we didn't have a China we didn't have a true peer competitor that we won't share the burden with now we do the world is very very different today”
“there are six companies that NASA is currently vetting, working with to develop the space stations”
“NASA isn't really, you know, NASA's not building it. They're going to rent it”
“for as much as a billion dollars a year”
How the episode opens
Good morning. This is Dylan Jven with Behind the Markets. Happy Monday.
Today is Monday, September 14th. So, yeah, Friday we talked about SpaceX being contracted to destroy the ISS, but who's leading the race to build the next space station? Because the answer to that tells you a lot about how NASA is viewing what the future ISS looks like, its functionality, and any extent percentage of it will be scientific versus military.
very very very big issue because it really speaks to how the government sees us in space because remember when the ISS was built we didn't have a China we didn't have a true peer competitor that we won't share the burden with now we do the world is very very different today than it was when the ISS was first built so anyway who's leading the race to build the next international space station that's the big question and the answer to that question offers a lot about the future of what NASA and the US government and the military thinks the space station should do and a lot of opportunities for investors. So the Government Accountability Office in June of 2026, just a couple months ago, a few months ago, came out with a report and basically according to their report, there are six companies that NASA is currently vetting, working with to develop the space stations. And I'm going to list them here, and I'm going to talk about which ones have strengths and weaknesses.
The first one is Axiom Space, which really has an advantage. NASA's first mover. I mean, they were awarded a contract in 2020 to attach a module to the ISS before detaching it into freef flying station.
So, they have an advantage. Blue Origin, which is Bezos's private owned company.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- iss replacement
- nasa space station contract
- space industry competition with china
- long-term space rental revenue
- space company financial risk
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Axiom Space
- Blue Origin
- Sierra Space
- SpaceX
- Vast Space
- Starlab Space
Watch the episode
Watch “Six Companies Racing to Replace the ISS and Who NASA Favors” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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