Episode summary
Wall Street Just Raised Its Gold Call to $6,000 an Ounce
Summary
The host argues that gold still looks cheap even after pulling back from around $5,000 an ounce to about $4,000, because major Wall Street banks have kept lifting their targets. He cites Goldman Sachs at $4,900 by year-end, JP Morgan at $6,000, UBS and Morgan Stanley at $5,200, and Bank of America at $4,800, framing the revisions as evidence that institutions still see upside despite the recent slide.
Key takeaways
- The host says Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, UBS, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America all kept bullish gold targets even after the metal fell from around $5,000 to about $4,000.
- He argues central bank buying is the biggest structural driver, with the host citing a survey showing 89% of central bankers expect reserves to rise over the next 12 months.
- The host says Goldman Sachs now sees central bank gold buying rising from about 29 tons a month toward 50 to 60 tons a month through 2026.
- He ties gold demand to the debasement trade, arguing that continued U.S. fiscal deficits and dollar weakness make reserve managers less willing to hold Treasurys or cash.
Notable quotes
“Goldman Sachs has it at 4,900 by the end of the year. This is revised down from 5,400 but still bullish”
“They've been taking that money consequently and actually pushing it into gold. As long as they have a surplus with us, they're going to keep buying gold. Period”
“89% of respondents, 90% of central bankers expect their gold reserves to rise over the next 12 months”
“Goldman Sachs had a note in May basically saying that their 12-month, they see central banks increasing, they're jumping basically to 50 tons per month from 29 tons per month”
“I personally don't know that's happening anytime soon. This guy is going to add $8 trillion in debt”
How the episode opens
Good morning. This is Bill O'Donnell here behind the markets. Happy Wednesday.
Today is Wednesday, July 8th. Today I'd like to talk about gold and why so many banks on Wall Street think it looks cheap, why they are reiterating their buying recommendations on it. They bunch of new gold prices came out and I just want to go over them with you.
Gold right now is about 4,000 an ounce, 4,175. Goldman Sachs has it at 4,900 by the end of the year. This is revised down from 5,400 but still bullish.
They articulated a bullish argument in note. JP Morgan has it at 6,000 an ounce. They actually see gold pushing higher and I'll discuss the reasons why.
UBS has it at 5,200. These are revised. They think that they we see gold higher is what they say basically.
Morgan Stanley has it at 5,200 an ounce. Bank of America has it at 4,800 an ounce. So, you have a lot of Wall Street banks raising the price on gold even though gold has gone down from around 5,000 an ounce here to 4,000 an ounce recently.
So, it's it's kind of pulled back and you know, begs the question, what's happening with gold? Look, we talked about this many times here over the years. Lord knows we have and we're going to continue talking about it because it's a part of a much bigger and more important story.
First of all, as a Goldman Sachs note articulates, which is the same thing as we've said 100 times on this channel over the years is there are structural reasons why gold is going higher, okay? So, there've been three big reasons why gold has been going higher. The first is central bank buying.
We have foreign central banks reducing or diversifying away from the US dollar.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- gold price targets
- central bank gold buying
- fed policy
- dollar debasement
- us bank outlook
Companies and tickers mentioned
- GS
- JPM
- UBS
- MS
- BAC
- Goldman Sachs
- JPMorgan Chase
- UBS
- Morgan Stanley
- Bank of America
Watch the episode
Watch “Wall Street Just Raised Its Gold Call to $6,000 an Ounce” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from Behind The Markets Podcast
-
Nvidia CEO Out: 4 Reasons I’m Not Panicking About Nvidia -
The Mag 7 Sell-Off: My 3 Secrets to Picking Stocks -
Morgan Stanley’s AI Winners List Is Full of Bank Stocks -
Anthropic IPO: Why I’m Not Rushing to Buy at $1 Trillion -
Chip Stocks Sell-Off: Why the AI Build-Out Just Went From 3 to 5 Years -
Midterm Election Results: The Stock Market’s Winners and Losers
Behind The Markets Podcast, this episode and its artwork belong to their owners. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
