Episode summary
Warning: Most SpaceX Stock "Deals" Are a Trap — 5 Real Ones
Summary
Dylan Grice focuses on new details from SpaceX’s filing that change how the IPO may trade and how much stock could reach the market early. He says Goldman Sachs won the lead role on the deal, while Morgan Stanley will serve as the stabilization agent, a role he describes as central to managing early trading and balancing buy and sell orders.
The biggest issue, in his view, is SpaceX’s unusual lockup structure. Instead of a simple 180-day lockup, employees and other insiders may be able to sell portions of their holdings much earlier, including 30% by the fall, 20% after the first earnings release date, another 10% if the stock is 30% above the IPO price, an additional 7% in regular increments between 70 and 135 days, and another 28% after third-quarter earnings. He argues that this could create meaningful selling pressure as shares begin trading.
He also says the filing expands the list of platforms that may offer access to the stock, including Robinhood, SoFi, Charles Schwab, Fidelity, and E*TRADE. Grice suggests interested investors should contact their brokers ahead of the IPO, while noting that Musk has agreed not to sell for at least a year and that some large investors have made similar commitments.
Key takeaways
- Dylan Grice says Goldman Sachs won the lead role on the SpaceX IPO and Morgan Stanley was named stabilization agent.
- Grice says SpaceX is using a lockup ladder, letting insiders sell portions of shares before the traditional 180-day lockup expires.
- He says current and former employees could sell 30% by the fall, then more after earnings milestones and price thresholds.
- Grice says the filing now lists Robinhood, SoFi, Charles Schwab, Fidelity, and E*TRADE as possible access points for the IPO.
- He argues the early release of insider shares could create selling pressure and make trading management critical at the open.
Notable quotes
“Goldman Sachs has won the lead role of the IPO, which is you know, the top spot”
“Morgan Stanley was listed as the stabilization agent, which is a very coveted, important role that oversees the early hours of trading”
“Usually, what happens is after 180 days, insiders and long-term holders can sell their restricted stock”
“current and former SpaceX employees, as well as most other insiders, are going to be able to as much as 30%”
“I'd be calling my rep up if you're interested in getting this stock at the IPO price”
How the episode opens
Point, there's Don Jabronie behind the market. Happy Monday. Today is Monday, June 1st.
Welcome to June. On and on we go. We made it to another Monday together.
So, today I'd like to talk about a few extra things that I've learned from SpaceX's filing. And I want to go over them with you cuz I think they're important for you to know. First of all, Goldman Sachs has won the lead role of the IPO, which is you know, the top spot.
It's the big dog spot. They'll also be administering basically the lockup of shares. You know, basically also Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, City, and JP Morgan are also listed in senior roles.
And very importantly, we talked about this the other day, Morgan Stanley was listed as the stabilization agent, which is a very coveted, important role that oversees the early hours of trading and kind of making sure the stock gets off to a smooth start in the public market. Very, very important. Cuz remember, you have a book of people that want to buy, you have to counter that with people that want to sell.
Think of the New York Stock Exchange, like when you're matching buyers and sellers. You can't just do this electronically cuz it'll just blow. Who knows where it goes.
So, you got to manage the release. It's a manipulation and it's supposed to be. You want to manage the release of this stuff, match the buying demand to serve the sellers and the buyers as best as you can.
And also, what SpaceX is doing uh differently than most IPOs, than most companies when they go public, but a lot of companies do it tech companies do it anyway. They're doing a lockup ladder. Usually, what happens is after 180 days, insiders and long-term holders can sell their restricted stock.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- spacex ipo
- ipo lockup structure
- ipo stabilization agent
- ipo lead underwriter roles
- ipo access platforms
Companies and tickers mentioned
- GS
- MS
- HOOD
- SOFI
- SCHW
- SpaceX
- Goldman Sachs
- Morgan Stanley
- Robinhood
- SoFi
- Fidelity
- Charles Schwab
- E*TRADE
Watch the episode
Watch “Warning: Most SpaceX Stock "Deals" Are a Trap — 5 Real Ones” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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